SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,802
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 8, 2016 23:56:43 GMT -5
After JBJ's 2-for-3 tonight, he's edging close to .300, and on pace for roughly 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 HR, with an OPS around .850. Last year's ISO, while still probably unreasonably high, isn't as crazy as it might've seemed, as he's still in the .200 range. His defense has been uncharacteristically hit-or-miss, but he's looking like not just a passable hitter, but a good one. Time to move him up? Is he a leadoff hitter at this point, with an OBP around .350 and with his XB power? I think it's time to move him up, but not the way they've done it. Farrell has him batting 8th so now it's Ortiz, Ramirez, Shaw, Holt, and JBJ comprising 4 LH bats in 5 lineup slots, and then 4 straight righties in the 9-3 spots, which makes it easier for relief specialists. They should probably try to balance it more. Something like Betts/Pedroia/Ortiz/Bogaerts/Shaw/Ramirez/JBJ/Vazquez/Holt
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 9, 2016 1:31:38 GMT -5
After JBJ's 2-for-3 tonight, he's edging close to .300, and on pace for roughly 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 HR, with an OPS around .850. Last year's ISO, while still probably unreasonably high, isn't as crazy as it might've seemed, as he's still in the .200 range. His defense has been uncharacteristically hit-or-miss, but he's looking like not just a passable hitter, but a good one. Time to move him up? Is he a leadoff hitter at this point, with an OBP around .350 and with his XB power? I think it's time to move him up, but not the way they've done it. Farrell has him batting 8th so now it's Ortiz, Ramirez, Shaw, Holt, and JBJ comprising 4 LH bats in 5 lineup slots, and then 4 straight righties in the 9-3 spots, which makes it easier for relief specialists. They should probably try to balance it more. Something like Betts/Pedroia/Ortiz/Bogaerts/Shaw/Ramirez/JBJ/Vazquez/Holt He's definitely a much more appropriate 7 than 8 hitter. But he's also slugging .500 in his last 350 or so PAs, which suggests he belongs even higher, particularly with an OBP around .350.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
|
Post by ericmvan on May 9, 2016 3:22:21 GMT -5
After JBJ's 2-for-3 tonight, he's edging close to .300, and on pace for roughly 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 HR, with an OPS around .850. Last year's ISO, while still probably unreasonably high, isn't as crazy as it might've seemed, as he's still in the .200 range. His defense has been uncharacteristically hit-or-miss, but he's looking like not just a passable hitter, but a good one. Time to move him up? Is he a leadoff hitter at this point, with an OBP around .350 and with his XB power? He had a 137 wRC+ last year as a regular (starting 7/29) and is now up to 135 this year. He's now passed Pedroia as the second best hitter on the team in that time. Bogaerts Bradley Pedroia Ortiz Betts or Ramirez Ramirez or Betts or Shaw Shaw or Ramirez or Betts Catcher Holt
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on May 9, 2016 8:46:06 GMT -5
It's an interesting question. Is Bradley an untouchable in my mind? No he's not. Would I look to deal him bc we have OF depth? No I wouldn't.
I also don't think we do have current outfield depth as much as we have potential future depth. AB and Moncada have no impact on 2016 season specific planning. Neither are in the picture, even if AB could force his way on it.
Trading JBjr right now leaves a big void on the roster. But if there is a team willing to trade a top of the rotation pitcher (Sonny Gray?) for Bradley then sure I think they should jump on that. Bradley has proven that he can hit enough so now it's a matter of how much will he hit...
It's interesting to me how bad he is at playing balls in front of him. I only say bad because it's a clear weakness and he's so incredible at the rest.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on May 9, 2016 8:47:45 GMT -5
Something appears wrong with Betts. I know he'll come around, he's too good. I would still think about switching Betts & JBJ TEMPORARILY until Betts gets straightened out. His outs are soft contact, where as they used to be line drives.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on May 9, 2016 9:11:31 GMT -5
The Sox won't be moving Bradley unless they're writing off the season. He's a key player in the field and he seems to have answered the question about whether the bat has come around. Most impressive is that he's been hitting the ball to all fields, with a single up the middle and a ground rule double to left last evening. The next thing to watch for is a climb in the OBP as pitchers start trying to finesse his at bats by keeping the ball away from the strike zone.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on May 9, 2016 12:19:39 GMT -5
Nobody is untouchable in the right deal, but Bradley is about as close as it gets, in my book. His defensive prowess and emerging bat make him a long term pillar for this organization. The kid is a true pro.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on May 9, 2016 12:24:18 GMT -5
Something appears wrong with Betts. I know he'll come around, he's too good. I would still think about switching Betts & JBJ TEMPORARILY until Betts gets straightened out. His outs are soft contact, where as they used to be line drives. Thankfully, we can now rely on actual data, not subjective impressions: Mookie's exit velocity 2016: 91.8 mph (tied with Hanley) JBJ's exit velocity 2016: 90.0 mph
|
|
|
Post by pedey on May 9, 2016 13:56:43 GMT -5
I loved Ellsbury when he was in Boston. But I'm glad the Sox didn't cough up 150 million to bring him back. Crisis averted. Jackie may not be quite as good as Jacoby was in his prime, but he has been very good this year. Really glad the Sox didn't give up on JBJ.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on May 9, 2016 13:58:33 GMT -5
Something appears wrong with Betts. I know he'll come around, he's too good. I would still think about switching Betts & JBJ TEMPORARILY until Betts gets straightened out. His outs are soft contact, where as they used to be line drives. Thankfully, we can now rely on actual data, not subjective impressions: Mookie's exit velocity 2016: 91.8 mph (tied with Hanley) JBJ's exit velocity 2016: 90.0 mph I'm not doubting those numbers for the year.....just seems the last 2 or 3 weeks he has been off his game (Betts) a bit offensively. Everything the 1st couple of weeks he was ripping the cover off the ball, even on outs. Again this is just my observation.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on May 9, 2016 19:06:30 GMT -5
I loved Ellsbury when he was in Boston. But I'm glad the Sox didn't cough up 150 million to bring him back. Crisis averted. Jackie may not be quite as good as Jacoby was in his prime, but he has been very good this year. Really glad the Sox didn't give up on JBJ. Kudos to the Manager for recognizing Jackie's skills and sticking with him while others were calling for him to be traded. I think JBJ's spot in the lineup is appropriate. He has good speed and helps the good hitters coming up after him.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,519
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on May 9, 2016 22:06:37 GMT -5
I loved Ellsbury when he was in Boston. But I'm glad the Sox didn't cough up 150 million to bring him back. Crisis averted. Jackie may not be quite as good as Jacoby was in his prime, but he has been very good this year. Really glad the Sox didn't give up on JBJ. Kudos to the Manager for recognizing Jackie's skills and sticking with him while others were calling for him to be traded. I think JBJ's spot in the lineup is appropriate. He has good speed and helps the good hitters coming up after him. Ben C. wanted to trade to Seattle for a reliever, the M's refused.
|
|
|
Post by kevfc89 on May 9, 2016 22:51:14 GMT -5
Kudos to the Manager for recognizing Jackie's skills and sticking with him while others were calling for him to be traded. I think JBJ's spot in the lineup is appropriate. He has good speed and helps the good hitters coming up after him. Ben C. wanted to trade to Seattle for a reliever, the M's refused. Are we really going to assume this is true because Nick Cafardo or someone said it?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,132
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on May 9, 2016 23:01:36 GMT -5
I loved Ellsbury when he was in Boston. But I'm glad the Sox didn't cough up 150 million to bring him back. Crisis averted. Jackie may not be quite as good as Jacoby was in his prime, but he has been very good this year. Really glad the Sox didn't give up on JBJ. He's easily been better this year (and last year) than Jacoby ever was at the plate aside from his 10 WAR season.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 10, 2016 0:09:47 GMT -5
After JBJ's 2-for-3 tonight, he's edging close to .300, and on pace for roughly 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 HR, with an OPS around .850. Last year's ISO, while still probably unreasonably high, isn't as crazy as it might've seemed, as he's still in the .200 range. His defense has been uncharacteristically hit-or-miss, but he's looking like not just a passable hitter, but a good one. Time to move him up? Is he a leadoff hitter at this point, with an OBP around .350 and with his XB power? He had a 137 wRC+ last year as a regular (starting 7/29) and is now up to 135 this year. He's now passed Pedroia as the second best hitter on the team in that time. Bogaerts Bradley Pedroia Ortiz Betts or Ramirez Ramirez or Betts or Shaw Shaw or Ramirez or Betts Catcher Holt And that WRC+ keeps climbing. IsoD, IsoP, and a BA now over .300. The awful start to his career has apparently built in a great deal of incredulity regarding his current performance, but he's well above-average offensively as a CF right now.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on May 10, 2016 0:16:56 GMT -5
I like: Bogaerts Bradley Pedroia Ortiz Betts Shaw Ramirez Holt Vazquez
It's perfectly balanced, it bunches the high OBP guys where they belong, stretches the power out, gives JBJ more at-bats (which you'd hope for a guy OPSing .900). If (when) Betts and Ramirez start hitting, they can move up/rearrange things.
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on May 10, 2016 5:28:33 GMT -5
Ben C. wanted to trade to Seattle for a reliever, the M's refused. Are we really going to assume this is true because Nick Cafardo or someone said it? Are you really going to pretend like it's hard to believe? I mean, they didn't give Rusney Castillo 75m because they had confidence in Jackie Bradley.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 10, 2016 6:01:46 GMT -5
Kudos to the Manager for recognizing Jackie's skills and sticking with him while others were calling for him to be traded. Are we talking about the same Manager who, when JBJ was called up in May last year, decided to start him against RA Dickey, Sonny Gray, and Felix Hernandez (with some pinch hit appearances sprinkled in between) before deciding that he obviously can't hit and needs to be sent back to Pawtucket?
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on May 10, 2016 6:33:21 GMT -5
Yes. There's another way of looking at it before bashing Farrell. We know now that Jackie can hit. It has taken him time to feel comfortable at the plate. One could say he did the Right thing by sending him back for more seasoning. Certainly turned out to be he right decision.
Can you imagine if Bradley had been traded to Seattle and emerged as he has now? It takes good talent evaluators and coaching to bring out the best. Glad Farrell stuck with him. And, btw, he looked ok last night vs Sonny Gray.
Against Felix Hernandez, after Jackie' return last season he hit him for a couple of taters. That was the night Farrell announced he was battling cancer.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2016 7:44:45 GMT -5
I have been a JBJ supporter from the beginning. I posted on here more than once to be patient as I trotted out his career minor league numbers and the opinion that at some point he had to be able to hit major league pitching. So glad he wasn't sold low in a trade and the Sox showed patience. Imagine an OF of Betts, Bradley and Benny, the killer B's. Great Defense with great hitting, without a doubt the best all around OF in baseball coming soon to a ballpark near you. Some of you may think that is hyperbole and it may take some time but come 2018 it will be fact. The future is bright!
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,519
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on May 10, 2016 7:45:43 GMT -5
Ben C. wanted to trade to Seattle for a reliever, the M's refused. Are we really going to assume this is true because Nick Cafardo or someone said it? It's not Cafardo, it's Gordon Edes...I trust Gordon Edes.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,850
|
Post by TearsIn04 on May 10, 2016 7:53:37 GMT -5
For me the first 30 games of this season have erased worries about JBJ's long-term viability as a hitter. Even after last August's spree, I wondered whether that was a real indicator or just a weird SSS aberration.
It's strange to look at his fangraphs page and see he's 6.8 oRAA and -4.5 dRAA. That gives him a WAR of .7, which puts him on pace for about 3.5 WAR over 150 games. Defensive metrics are squishy enough that it's easy to get year-to-year fluctuations that do not fully capture the player's actual performance. That's one reason I thought the 4-WAR-floor prediction for him was pretty off the wall. He may finish the year at 4 or above, but setting that as an absolute worst case scenario was wacky.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
|
Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2016 9:14:19 GMT -5
wRC+ since Bradley became a regular, updated:
190 Very Bad Man 141 JBJ 132 Laser Show 130 Corner Surprise 127 Pro Bowler 125 Aruban God of BABIP
BTW, I retracted the 4 WAR floor assessment because I wasn't sure what the average starter WAR was. The revised assessment was 1 WAR above average.
|
|
|
Post by mandelbro on May 10, 2016 9:20:17 GMT -5
Also worth nothing as we fawn over JBJ, this year he's continued to look like he doesn't have to be platooned. .286/.360/.429 versus LHP, 24.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0% HR/FB .307/.351/.580 versus RHP, 24.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 20% HR/FB
The overall production has been stronger against RHP where ALL of his home runs have come but its not like he's in any way been overmatched by lefties and the peripherals make it look like the gap between the two should narrow.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 10, 2016 9:40:23 GMT -5
Also worth nothing as we fawn over JBJ, this year he's continued to look like he doesn't have to be platooned. .286/.360/.429 versus LHP, 24.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 0% HR/FB .307/.351/.580 versus RHP, 24.5 K%, 5.3 BB%, 20% HR/FB The overall production has been stronger against RHP where ALL of his home runs have come but its not like he's in any way been overmatched by lefties and the peripherals make it look like the gap between the two should narrow. I don't know that a month's worth of platoon splits is really useful analytically. Even his career MLB splits (94 wRC+ vs. L, 78 wRC+ vs. R) are not particularly predictive because (a) they're still a relatively small sample (285 PAs vs. L and 619 PAs vs. R; you need about 1,000 PAs versus each handedness before observed platoon splits are more predictive than the league-average platoon split) and (b) they're biased by the fact that, when he was struggling in 2013-14, he was more heavily platooned, which means proportionally more of his career PAs vs. LHP have come during his recent hot steak and proportionally more of his career PAs vs. RHP have come when he was bad. His minor league stats showed a fairly typical platoon split in a larger sample (.769 OPS vs. L (368 PAs), .895 OPS vs. R (884 PAs)). I think the most you can conclude at this point is that he doesn't look like a guy with extreme platoon splits. That's certainly enough for him to get everyday playing time as long as he's hitting well overall, but I think it's still the case that if you're going to give him a day off, you should try to do it versus a LHP.
|
|
|