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Post by telson13 on Jan 23, 2016 22:12:37 GMT -5
Put it this way: the Royals' top two HR hitters were Kendrys Morales and Mike Moustakas, with 22 each. Buster Posey and Hunter Pence led the Giants in 2014 with 22 and 20, respectively. When they won in 2012, Posey led the team with 24 and Sandoval was second with *12*. Prototypical #4 hitters are absolutely not a prerequisite for winning the WS. Toronto had **three** last year and didn't get by the team with three (22,22,21) 20-HR hitters and no "legitimate" 3- or 4- hitters. FWIW, the Royals really only had, at best, a couple of 2/3 starters, too. But they did have a great bullpen and defense. The Sox now have a great bullpen, a legitimate #1, a probable legitimate #2 in Rodriguez, a 2/3 type in Buchholz (with 1a upside), a host of 3/4 types, an excellent defensive OF, and an excellent defensive middle INF, and C in Vasquez. They have a bunch of improving hitters, and a truly laughably good collection of outstanding to elite minor league hitting talent. No need to make moves until a true deficiency exists.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 6, 2016 2:13:21 GMT -5
So what would be the best outfield alignment? I've changed my mind several times, and I'm doing it again. I think this argument is sound and hard to top.
JBJ, in almost precisely 150 games worth of playing time, has a career 15.5 UZR/150 in CF, and 15.0 +/- 0.4 DRS/150. (That projects to no lower than 10.5 for this year, and there may be even less regression to the mean than that. If anyone's interested, I'll do a geekage note.)
A guy who is +15 in CF can be expected to be about +21 in RF and +27 in LF. JBJ's played 543 innings in an OF corner, a bit more in RF than LF, so that his expectation would be +23. And in fact he's 24.7 UZR/150, but he's only 10.5 DRS, which I put rather more stock in. And when they disagree, I'll look at Total Zone, and it has him at -2. So statistically, there's some reason to believe that JBJ has been less good in an OF corner than expected, and perhaps quite a bit less good. Crunching all the numbers, I have him playing an OF corner about as well as you'd expect a +4 CF to play, rather than a +15.
Does this make sense scouting-wise? Absolutely. JBJ is not playing the hell out of CF by sheer athleticism. He does it by getting great reads off the bat and by running greats routes. Those are skills honed with long repetition. It makes perfect sense that they would not translate immediately to an OF corner.
Running the same analysis on Mookie, I have him playing a +3 CF but playing RF as if he were a +5. That difference is probably random, and it's consistent with his playing both positions well despite very little experience, based on pure athleticism.
So JBJ in CF and Mookie in RF, which is what most people expect, is indeed the way to go.
Rusney, by the way, has played the three OF positions combined like a +16 CF, and I regress that to +8 to +11. But even +8 makes him a +20 LF, which in turn will put give him a 2.0 to 2.5 WAR even if he doesn't develop as a hitter. Which segues into my next post ...
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Post by thursty on Feb 6, 2016 2:58:40 GMT -5
But you've failed to take into consideration who plays CF when Young starts and JBJ sits, which is, from what I've deduced, the plan going into the season. That's at a minimum 1/3 of the games. The answer cannot be Young. I suppose you could start Castillo in CF on those days. Without a lot more data, I don't see the benefit of shuttling Mookie between OF positions; he's just way more important than JB to the team's present and future
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 6, 2016 3:06:07 GMT -5
Take a look around at who is starting in OF corners.
The Blue Jays have Michael Saunders in LF, career 92 wRC+ (Steamer projects 100), about a +6 defender (based on actual numbers at all three positions, DRS weighted a bit more than UZR).
The Rays have a muddle with Corey Dickerson (104 projection, -5 defense) or Desmond Jennings (96, +12) in LF, and Steven Souza (104, -4) or Brandon Guyer (101, +4) in RF.
The Orioles have Korean signee Hyun-Soo Kim for LF, but a $3.5M contract doesn't suggest he's guaranteed to beat out Nolan Reimold (88, -6). For RF they have Dariel Alvarez (94, TBD). And these guys in a lineup that is otherwise Wieters, Davis, Schoop, Hardy, Machado, Jones, and Trumbo. And on a team with a very good GM.
There just aren't enough good OFers to go around. We're not trading anyone any time soon.
(BTW, by this methodology, Castillo is 92, +32, and Betts is 125, +11. Rusney's a bit higher than in the last post because I'm omitting TZ rather than counting it 10%).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 6, 2016 14:32:10 GMT -5
But you've failed to take into consideration who plays CF when Young starts and JBJ sits, which is, from what I've deduced, the plan going into the season. That's at a minimum 1/3 of the games. The answer cannot be Young. I suppose you could start Castillo in CF on those days. Without a lot more data, I don't see the benefit of shuttling Mookie between OF positions; he's just way more important than JB to the team's present and future Indeed, the platoon alignment is definitely Young, Castillo, Betts. But I think it would be a mistake to platoon JBJ and Young strictly. As far as we can tell, JBJ doesn't have a big platoon split (and in fact, he has a reverse split in his SSS in MLB). And you give up a lot of defense when you move Castillo to CF and put Young in LF. The LF downgrade is from as much as +20 to about +4, and the CF downgrade is probably about 3 to 4 runs / 150 or so. Young has to be in the lineup in Fenway versus LHP because his swing is so well suited for the park. That's 25-30 games, but you can use 10 of those or so to selectively rest Papi. On the road, there's also 25-30 games, and I'd start JBJ in 10 or so, against the pitchers with the mildest splits. It could even be 15. (You can get Young into the lineup at DH in another 5 or so of these.) I have it as about 35 games that you use the platoon alignment, and it might be only 30. A further question is what's your lineup when one of the three regulars is out. I think you have: Vs RHP:Holt, Bradley, Betts Castillo, Betts, Holt (Holt, Castillo, Betts is an alternative on the road, especially if JBJ is just out for a game or two) Castillo, Bradley, Holt Vs LHP:Young, Bradley, Betts Young, Castillo, Betts (Young, Betts, Castillo if JBJ is out for a week or more, so you're not having two guys moving in the platoon) Young, Bradley, Castillo (or Castillo, Bradley, Young in Yankee Stadium and any other park with a similar layout)
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Post by blizzards39 on May 1, 2016 12:18:10 GMT -5
Bradley just may be my favorite player. I sure hope what we are seeing now is what he is. .250plus hitter with on base skills and extra base power with that defence is excellent. As for JBJ as a defender. I saw a clip on mlb that was saying how he has caught more line drive hits than any other OF. This led me to going to fangraphs to find he has negative defence ice metrics. Both arm and range. He's looked awesome to the eye. Have saw many highlight clips and heard nothing but good things. Can anybody explain?
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Post by thursty on May 1, 2016 13:26:02 GMT -5
Well, his throws have been invariably inaccurate this year; and he doesn't play balls in front of him well, he too often pulls up short and lets balls that could be caught fall in (to wit he played an out into a triple in Game 1 against the Yankees) But some of it's just the vagaries of baseball, hasn't really had an opportunity to make any 20% plays yet
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 2, 2016 10:09:02 GMT -5
Would you sell high on him now (before the deadline if he continues to maintain production)? OF help is coming through the minors & Betts could man CF till Benny/Moncada comes. You could play Holt--Betts--Young & not embarrass yourself. There are only so many spots to go around. I do believe Young would hit better with more ab's. Heck, even Castillo could turn it around.
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Post by mgoetze on May 2, 2016 10:16:25 GMT -5
Would you sell high on him now (before the deadline if he continues to maintain production)? OF help is coming through the minors & Betts could man CF till Benny/Moncada comes. You could play Holt--Betts--Young & not embarrass yourself. There are only so many spots to go around. I do believe Young would hit better with more ab's. Heck, even Castillo could turn it around. Did you know that people playing sports every day sometimes get injured?
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 2, 2016 11:49:32 GMT -5
Would you sell high on him now (before the deadline if he continues to maintain production)? OF help is coming through the minors & Betts could man CF till Benny/Moncada comes. You could play Holt--Betts--Young & not embarrass yourself. There are only so many spots to go around. I do believe Young would hit better with more ab's. Heck, even Castillo could turn it around. Did you know that people playing sports every day sometimes get injured? I'm not saying I'd trade him. Just think we're thinner @ other positions, specifically 3B & #2 SP. If an OF'er goes down, he can be replaced. If Shaw goes down for 6-8 weeks I think it could be trickier.
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Post by thursty on May 2, 2016 12:01:09 GMT -5
Would you sell high on him now (before the deadline if he continues to maintain production)? OF help is coming through the minors & Betts could man CF till Benny/Moncada comes. You could play Holt--Betts--Young & not embarrass yourself. There are only so many spots to go around. I do believe Young would hit better with more ab's. Heck, even Castillo could turn it around. It would never happen, but . . . What about Bradley straight up for Jose Quintana? My guess is the White Sox wouldn't bite, but they're trying to get by with Austin Jackson in CF (and predictably, it's not working) You never see those kinds of trades because they would really hurt both teams, who are both in 1st place. From the Red Sox' perspective, I think I might bite, and I wouldn't be too concerned about the defensive impact (presuming Castillo), but there'd be an offensive hit (irony). And I'm not sure that *right now*, Quintana wouldn't be your best starter. Never will happen, but that would be a fun trade.
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Post by RedSoxStats on May 2, 2016 12:51:17 GMT -5
You should probably realize Quintana would take Moncada or Benintendi or Devers, in addiction to JBJ, and something else, if the White Sox ever decided to move him for whatever reason.
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Post by mgoetze on May 2, 2016 14:18:19 GMT -5
Did you know that people playing sports every day sometimes get injured? I'm not saying I'd trade him. Just think we're thinner @ other positions, specifically 3B & #2 SP. If an OF'er goes down, he can be replaced. If Shaw goes down for 6-8 weeks I think it could be trickier. Currently what happens is that Brock Holt takes over there (although at some point even John Farrell might be too embarrassed to run Young out there against every RHP) but if you trade JBJ you're committing Holt to the OF and actually downgrading the 3B depth. Yes, 3B isn't Holt's best position defensively, but his bat more than compensates for that compared to, say, Hernandez. Meanwhile, if an OF gets injured... Benintendi is still in A-Ball for now. He might adjust really quickly. But relying on that would be borderline insane.
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Post by jmei on May 2, 2016 14:28:21 GMT -5
I think soxfaninnc is thinking about Castillo, who I still think is something like a one win player and useful depth in the OF. But Castillo might be, in a roundabout way, the backup 3B as well. If Holt has to play 3B, I would call up Castillo and give him some LF time, especially versus RHP (preemptively: yes, Castillo was awful versus RHP last year, but he's been better versus them in the minors). Not sure if the front office agrees, though.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 2, 2016 14:46:25 GMT -5
I would try to extend JBJ
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 2, 2016 15:27:53 GMT -5
I would try to extend JBJ Second that. It would be way cheaper now than it will be a year or two from today. OF in the MLB is pretty barren, and Bradley can play any OF position. He's going to be of value for a while, I'd rather lock him up before people realize that he may be a 4+ win player rather than just a viable starter.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 2, 2016 16:06:38 GMT -5
I would try to extend JBJ Second that. It would be way cheaper now than it will be a year or two from today. OF in the MLB is pretty barren, and Bradley can play any OF position. He's going to be of value for a while, I'd rather lock him up before people realize that he may be a 4+ win player rather than just a viable starter. Agree. At worst he will always have value. He's too good an athlete (hand/eye coord) to not figure it out offensively. Good baserunner, can steal you a bag. Doesn't seem to be injury prone. (Cough/Castillo......) Not a F/A till 2021. Lock up Arb & a couple F/A years.
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Post by telson13 on May 2, 2016 16:24:38 GMT -5
Yeah, lock him up while his numbers are relatively unimpressive and hope you get a good deal. He's likely to be tradeable at the end of a 6-year or so contract even if it's at $10-15M a year, because his defense makes him at least a fourth OF, unless his offense is truly atrocious.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on May 2, 2016 16:56:33 GMT -5
Would you sell high on him now (before the deadline if he continues to maintain production)? OF help is coming through the minors & Betts could man CF till Benny/Moncada comes. You could play Holt--Betts--Young & not embarrass yourself. There are only so many spots to go around. I do believe Young would hit better with more ab's. Heck, even Castillo could turn it around. The Red Sox are trying to win now, so no way in hell. Trades are pretty much never made this early and if they are, you're overpaying big time. We need JBJ in CF way more than we need to improve another position.
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Post by zimmerdown on May 2, 2016 17:58:38 GMT -5
I know Sale is good, but dang......I'd give Swihart & their choice of Miley, Owens, or Kelly,.....That said, I know they wouldn't do that, so I don't see a deal there. With all that has been said, I'm in minority of letting Swihart and Vazquez have a full year of improving their stock. Christian needs to show he is healthy and, at least, what he was.....and Blake needs to show everyone he has the ability to become a solid defensive catcher. NEITHER should be traded! I totally believe some of you are really not understanding what we have with young Blake Swihart. You don't.....you DON"T trade a catcher with his athletic ability and offensive potential. I truly believe we will be much better next season, but I'm fine with us exploding in 2017. Some of you want it all to happen immediately and are prepared to trade anyone for a quick fix. Boy I hope Dombrowski is not into quick and temporary fixes. By the winter of 2016, Vazquez will probably be 100% and will alleviate all of the other teams' concerns to whether he can be counted on to lead their staff and catch for 130+ games. He is a valuable chip, but probably not until the middle of next summer. Swihart is going to be very good. The only question is HOW good. I would bet anyone, after pushing him this last year to lead a staff in the majors before he was even ready, he will be much MUCH better! Those of you thinking he will not even be adequate are wrong. He has the arm, the work ethic, and the ability to be a PLUS catcher.....and you want to consider throwing him to any deal that fits your fancy. Smarten up! When the White Sox have another terrible year next year, the White Sox will be much more inclined to move one Chris Sale. And that trade will be without us losing a very unique talent like Swihart. I know it is difficult for you and myself to be patient, but that is a better direction to take than believing we have to win next season. And before I forget, Dave Dombrowski......please don't even consider giving too much for a reliever like Chapman unless he signs an extension. I'm not sure that you are in the minority (but I could be wrong!). We have a few years of control with both, and both are very valuable. It is telling that they are trying Swihart out at LF, because it is obvious who they see as the catcher of the future (Vazquez). I think the majority would rather keep them both for the time being and it will sort itself out. But with this group, I don't know if anything will make them happy. (italics)
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Post by sarasoxer on May 2, 2016 18:11:14 GMT -5
Just a thought on the All-Star game festivities and JBJ. What about, in addition to the now mundane HR contest, have a throwing competition? One could chart velocity, distance and accuracy. We have JBJ the Yankees have Hicks and there are obviously others. With proper warm-up this could be of considerable interest given the obvious greater athleticism in OF play and the more consistent display of arm strength.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 2, 2016 22:52:30 GMT -5
I believe they tried that several years ago and someone got hurt. So I can't see them bringing it back. It would be entertaining, though.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2016 21:29:21 GMT -5
After JBJ's 2-for-3 tonight, he's edging close to .300, and on pace for roughly 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 15 HR, with an OPS around .850. Last year's ISO, while still probably unreasonably high, isn't as crazy as it might've seemed, as he's still in the .200 range. His defense has been uncharacteristically hit-or-miss, but he's looking like not just a passable hitter, but a good one. Time to move him up? Is he a leadoff hitter at this point, with an OBP around .350 and with his XB power?
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Post by bookiemetts on May 8, 2016 22:54:35 GMT -5
He's a really good player I think. He's got a .347 BABIP this year so far, which is a little higher than before. However, I think it could be close to sustainable as he is hitting more line drives and hitting them harder this year, and while not fast, is a good runner and a lefty.
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Post by mandelbro on May 8, 2016 23:32:17 GMT -5
2015 and 2016 seasons combined. Player A: .297/.352/.449 Player B: .258/.334/.500 Player C: .259/.303/.447 Player D: .288/.364/.424
Those players? Lorenzo Cain, Jackie Bradley, Adam Jones, Adam Eaton.
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