SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Miley/Aro to Seattle for Carson Smith & Roenis Elias
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2015 16:59:09 GMT -5
Anyone know smiths velocity ? Sorry don't know much about it? What are his strengths? Depending on what time in 2015 from 93-97. He has a wipeout slider about 87.
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 7, 2015 17:01:46 GMT -5
I’m gonna play Devil’s Advocate for one minute, and ask: Looking at their statistics over the past 2 years, is Elias a better starting pitcher than Miley? Miley has made his starts and provided innings, and has done so consistently over his career, and I agree that has value, but did Elias pitch better than Miley in his starts, despite the fact that he made 16 fewer over the last 2 years? First and foremost, Miley averaged about 6 ip per start over the past 2 years, with Elias averaging slightly less, about 5 2/3 over the same period of time. Also, over that time period, Elias has struck out a slightly higher percentage of batters than Miley, with Miley walking a slightly lower percentage. The big difference is that Miley was much more hittable than Elias over the past 2 years, and even including the lower walk percentage, gave up significantly more baserunners. Miley also gives up more runs and slightly more home runs.
There are a lot of other factors that have to be taken into account with regards to this, such as Home Ballpark, Division & career track record, but I do not think it is cut and dry that Miley is a better pitcher, at the very least one can make an argument to the contrary. If Kelly reverts back to the Kelly of the 1st half last year, and Owens and Johnson are sent, I wanted be surprised to see Elias earn the 5th starter spot, and who’s to say he can’t do as well, or better than Miley?
Before anyone bashes me on this, I’ll qualify that I do think Miley is more valuable than Elias, but statistically speaking, tell me why?
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Dec 7, 2015 17:03:26 GMT -5
Joel Sherman thought the trade was outstanding for the Sox, and said this: In his first full season in the majors last year, the 26-year-old Smith had a 2.31 ERA in 70 games, allowing 49 hits in 70 innings with 22 walks and 92 strikeouts. He was at 2.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs. Among those at 2.0 were Andrew Miller, Wade Davis and Trevor Rosenthal. If his WAR was better than those 3, I guess I love it! Here is the article link: nypost.com/2015/12/07/red-sox-build-their-own-monster-pen-by-snagging-mariners-gem/And I would take any one of those 3 over Smith without much of a thought.....just like I did now. Is Miller's salary included? lol
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 17:04:19 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2015 17:08:06 GMT -5
Thanks. I hadn't realized how good, and underrated Elias may be. At a minimum, he looks like a shut-down reliever against lefties. As others have said (and contrary to what I first thought) concerns about Smith being injured should be answered by a pre-trade exam, and Smith's performance in September/October was superb (9 shutdowns, 1 meltdown). It could be that having "shut-down" relievers that can also avoid "melt-downs" is the key to keeping runs from scoring, and thus to winning. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shutdowns-and-meltdowns-should-kill-the-save/At some point it may be worthwhile to re-think the basic assumptions about how relievers have been valued in the public consensus, and in salary arbitration. With this trade and the Kimbrel trade, it seems the Red Sox have already begun working, internally, under a revaluation of relievers. Not needing to claim dibs but I attached the article reference you identify. On another cite I saw where Elias can deliver up to 95 with his FB. The guy has potential as a starter or in relief. He presents as a lefty with more pop than Owens or Johnson and we know DD is a velocity guy.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 7, 2015 17:08:19 GMT -5
I'd have rather seen Kelly than Miley go, although maybe that would have made the trade unlikely. I know Miley gets a lot of **** around here...but I like what he brought to the back end. I also am not buying into substantive Kelly improvement.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 17:11:17 GMT -5
I’m gonna play Devil’s Advocate for one minute, and ask: Looking at their statistics over the past 2 years, is Elias a better starting pitcher than Miley? Miley has made his starts and provided innings, and has done so consistently over his career, and I agree that has value, but did Elias pitch better than Miley in his starts, despite the fact that he made 16 fewer over the last 2 years? First and foremost, Miley averaged about 6 ip per start over the past 2 years, with Elias averaging slightly less, about 5 2/3 over the same period of time. Also, over that time period, Elias has struck out a slightly higher percentage of batters than Miley, with Miley walking a slightly lower percentage. The big difference is that Miley was much more hittable than Elias over the past 2 years, and even including the lower walk percentage, gave up significantly more baserunners. Miley also gives up more runs and slightly more home runs. There are a lot of other factors that have to be taken into account with regards to this, such as Home Ballpark, Division & career track record, but I do not think it is cut and dry that Miley is a better pitcher, at the very least one can make an argument to the contrary. If Kelly reverts back to the Kelly of the 1st half last year, and Owens and Johnson are sent, I wanted be surprised to see Elias earn the 5th starter spot, and who’s to say he can’t do as well, or better than Miley? Before anyone bashes me on this, I’ll qualify that I do think Miley is more valuable than Elias, but statistically speaking, tell me why? Elias is a work in progress. He had a Miley-like season his rookie year in 2014 and slipped back a little this year. He like most Cubans didn't have a standard smooth career path so it's not surprising that it took him longer to get where he is.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 7, 2015 17:10:54 GMT -5
I'd have rather seen Kelly than Miley go, although maybe that would have made the trade unlikely. I know Miley gets a lot of shit around here...but I like what he brought to the back end. I also am not buying into substantive Kelly improvement. Let's explore: Price (LHP) Buchholz (RHP) Rodriguez (LHP) Porcello (RHP) Miley (LHP) Owens (LHP) Elias (LHP) Johnson (LHP) And remember: Buchholz will go down at some point.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 17:14:04 GMT -5
Thanks. I hadn't realized how good, and underrated Elias may be. At a minimum, he looks like a shut-down reliever against lefties. As others have said (and contrary to what I first thought) concerns about Smith being injured should be answered by a pre-trade exam, and Smith's performance in September/October was superb (9 shutdowns, 1 meltdown). It could be that having "shut-down" relievers that can also avoid "melt-downs" is the key to keeping runs from scoring, and thus to winning. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/shutdowns-and-meltdowns-should-kill-the-save/At some point it may be worthwhile to re-think the basic assumptions about how relievers have been valued in the public consensus, and in salary arbitration. With this trade and the Kimbrel trade, it seems the Red Sox have already begun working, internally, under a revaluation of relievers. Not needing to claim dibs but I attached the article reference you identify. On another cite I saw where Elias can deliver up to 95 with his FB. The guy has potential as a starter or in relief. He presents as a lefty with more pop than Owens or Johnson and we know DD is a velocity guy. Didn't mean to steal credit for the link from you sarasoxer. But, something about the way you posted it simply would not let me add your statement as a quote. This site gets a little wonky like that sometimes. Thanks again for the link.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 17:18:00 GMT -5
I’m gonna play Devil’s Advocate for one minute, and ask: Looking at their statistics over the past 2 years, is Elias a better starting pitcher than Miley? Miley has made his starts and provided innings, and has done so consistently over his career, and I agree that has value, but did Elias pitch better than Miley in his starts, despite the fact that he made 16 fewer over the last 2 years? First and foremost, Miley averaged about 6 ip per start over the past 2 years, with Elias averaging slightly less, about 5 2/3 over the same period of time. Also, over that time period, Elias has struck out a slightly higher percentage of batters than Miley, with Miley walking a slightly lower percentage. The big difference is that Miley was much more hittable than Elias over the past 2 years, and even including the lower walk percentage, gave up significantly more baserunners. Miley also gives up more runs and slightly more home runs. There are a lot of other factors that have to be taken into account with regards to this, such as Home Ballpark, Division & career track record, but I do not think it is cut and dry that Miley is a better pitcher, at the very least one can make an argument to the contrary. If Kelly reverts back to the Kelly of the 1st half last year, and Owens and Johnson are sent, I wanted be surprised to see Elias earn the 5th starter spot, and who’s to say he can’t do as well, or better than Miley? Before anyone bashes me on this, I’ll qualify that I do think Miley is more valuable than Elias, but statistically speaking, tell me why? Park effects are a significant factor-- Elias was pitching in probably the most friendly ballpark for a left-handed pitcher, while Miley pitched in two of the worst. You also are looking at ERA, which is less predictive in small samples, and by peripherals, Miley is a fair bit better than Elias on both a raw and (especially) league- and park-adjusted basis.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Dec 7, 2015 17:22:03 GMT -5
We're trying to talk ourselves into assuming he gets injured already? His average velocity did increase from August to September. Throwing a lot of sliders isn't great, but doesn't guarantee anything. We have 4 good relievers now. This should help limit their fatigue. As long as 3 at a time out healthy our own will be in good shape. Elias also should be a lefty killer, so I hope we use him in that fashion. 10 years of control between the two is a good deal, even if it ends up only being 4 years of Smith due to injury. I think this is a good trade for two years of Miley even though I do think he's very under appreciated. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Kelly and Owens combine to match what Miley would give us in the 5th spot of the rotation. My point with the velo and the sliders is just to say that we can't assume that Smith is a lock for five years of bullpen dominance. He's certainly a higher-risk player than Miley is. With Buchholz still in the rotation, they needed Kelly and Owens anyways. I think there's a sizable step down between Miley and Kelly/Owens-- more than the step up from, say, Matt Barnes to Carson Smith. This is where I have to disagree with you, and where I'd imagine our front office would disagree with you. I think some are starting to overvalue dependability....Miley hasn't set the bar that high in terms of performance. In fact, from a performance perspective, Elias doesn't look that much different from Miley. I'm willing to wager that DD and company thought we could replace Miley with Kelly/Owens et al. and get similar or same value, while obviously upgrading our bullpen after this trade. I like it.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 7, 2015 17:24:45 GMT -5
Let's explore: Price (LHP) Buchholz (RHP) Rodriguez (LHP) Porcello (RHP) Miley (LHP) Owens (LHP) Elias (LHP) Johnson (LHP) And remember: Buchholz will go down at some point. At this point, you'd have to put Kelly in for Miley, no? That is some inexperience for depth. Unless he has other trades in the offing, I am nervous. It also makes me wish Barnes could have shown something last year.....anything
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2015 17:26:01 GMT -5
I'm a little more bullish on this trade after digging deeper into Elias. He seems like an interesting guy who has some upside both as a starter and as a reliever. Still think the trade makes them worse in 2016 (including by introducing more performance risk), but there's a good bit of long-term value coming back, so it's a trade probably worth doing.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 7, 2015 17:27:02 GMT -5
My cousin is a Mariners fan and hates the trade. He was a DI baseball player and is big M's fan.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 7, 2015 17:27:40 GMT -5
Let's explore: Price (LHP) Buchholz (RHP) Rodriguez (LHP) Porcello (RHP) Miley (LHP) Owens (LHP) Elias (LHP) Johnson (LHP) And remember: Buchholz will go down at some point. At this point, you'd have to put Kelly in for Miley, no? That is some inexperience for depth. Unless he has other trades in the offing, I am nervous. It also makes me wish Barnes could have shown something last year.....anything Just showing the balance of depth if Kelly had gone instead of Miley (not like that was an option anyway). AAA depth is kinda tough. Would you rather have really low ceiling guys with more experience or high upside youngsters? I'm assuming DD will add some more depth to AAA soon. We have to also remember that this team can go into spring with some question marks and assess trades then, or at the deadline after they see what they have.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 17:31:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 17:33:12 GMT -5
Great. Already making decisions. Maybe he should lock in the 2018 rotation too.
Scott Lauber @scottlauber 5m5 minutes ago Koji locked into eighth inning, according to Farrell. #RedSox
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2015 17:36:01 GMT -5
Certainly should dampen the over the top reaction - traded 180 IP of league average performance for a late inning reliever. The Red Sox have one (2 if you count Porcello), reliable innings-eaters starters now, that's less than ideal What happened to Elias? He's been buried in the thread already? Miley wasn't traded for Smith, not at all. And Elias isn't a throw in either.
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 17:36:02 GMT -5
Great. Already making decisions. Maybe he should lock in the 2018 rotation too. Scott Lauber @scottlauber 5m5 minutes ago Koji locked into eighth inning, according to Farrell. #RedSox The irony is that we're going to have the kind of deep pen we needed last year - Considering that none of our starters could consistently get past the 6th inning. And, this year, with Price heading the rotation, we've now got the deep pen. Call it overkill, but I'll definitely take it!
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 7, 2015 17:36:23 GMT -5
Great. Already making decisions. Maybe he should lock in the 2018 rotation too. Scott Lauber @scottlauber 5m5 minutes ago Koji locked into eighth inning, according to Farrell. #RedSox Gosh, overreaction much?
|
|
|
Post by heisenberg on Dec 7, 2015 17:37:48 GMT -5
Certainly should dampen the over the top reaction - traded 180 IP of league average performance for a late inning reliever. The Red Sox have one (2 if you count Porcello), reliable innings-eaters starters now, that's less than ideal What happened to Elias? He's been buried in the thread already? Miley wasn't traded for Smith, not at all. And Elias isn't a throw in either. Not at all. Miley for Elias = Win for Sox Smith for Aro = Win for Sox
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 7, 2015 17:41:33 GMT -5
My cousin is a Mariners fan and hates the trade. He was a DI baseball player and is big M's fan. I don't think the Mariners are going anwhere. They lost Iwakuma. The Jack Z regime was an abject failure. I hope they give Jerry a chance to institute his plan. Miley is a good asset to have....for use or for trade.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 7, 2015 17:43:11 GMT -5
Great. Already making decisions. Maybe he should lock in the 2018 rotation too. Scott Lauber @scottlauber 5m5 minutes ago Koji locked into eighth inning, according to Farrell. #RedSox Gosh, overreaction much? We know what he's like. Koji will have the 8th inning job even if he comes into spring training throwing 80. It would take him too long to change that if he's not effective. What a good manager would do is see who the 2nd best relief pitcher is in spring training and continually re-evaluate throughout the entire season. I wouldn't hold my breath to ever have a manager who will pitch his best pitchers in the highest leverage situations regardless of what inning it its, but that's even better.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 7, 2015 17:48:24 GMT -5
We know what he's like. Koji will have the 8th inning job even if he comes into spring training throwing 80. It would take him too long to change that if he's not effective. What a good manager would do is see who the 2nd best relief pitcher is in spring training and continually re-evaluate throughout the entire season. I wouldn't hold my breath to ever have a manager who will pitch his best pitchers in the highest leverage situations regardless of what inning it its, but that's even better. Hopefully he just means that in terms of Koji being our old closer, and thus not losing his job (too) extremely, by being moved to the 7th inning or lower. But I wouldn't put it past Farrell to be stubborn in changing things up if he struggles or isn't as dominant as Smith could be, for example.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2015 17:53:40 GMT -5
I liked Miley but the Sox are trading from a relative position of strength to now having the equivalent of 3 closers. Yes that is based on just one year but it is what it is, the stats from last year puts them all in that category. The difference between Miley and Elias isn't all that much if you consider the possible upside of Elias potential. That is what puts this trade over the top as far as value to the Sox, along with the control. That being said the disparity in Smiths numbers at home and away, with the pitcher friendly stadium is a caution. Still very good on the road and a strike out is a strike out regardless.
|
|
|