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2016 Red Sox Spring Training News/Discussion
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Post by jmei on Mar 31, 2016 17:30:31 GMT -5
The front office probably just thinks that a Young/Holt platoon is better than the .260/.300/.380 with plus defense that they might get from Castillo, and they're probably right. Holt's ability to play in the infield is great for roster flexibility reasons (you don't have to carry an extra backup infielder to give guys a day off), but if everyone is healthy, he shouldn't play much at SS/2B anyways.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 31, 2016 18:01:06 GMT -5
Plus if there is an injury Holt can still move to the infield
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Post by jmei on Mar 31, 2016 18:11:39 GMT -5
Guys with Castillo's skill set don't exactly grow on trees. He's a plus defender in center field who, even if he doesn't walk or hit for much power, makes enough contact and has the batted ball profile to hit for a .260+ average. I think, at worst, he's still a solid fourth outfielder in the one win range. It won't make a huge difference because you don't expect him to get that much playing time, but every little bit counts, and I'm not sure if playing in AAA is really going to help his development all that much. Yeah but.... I am not convinced that he would hit .260 despite his physique, strength and athleticism. He beat out many toppers in 2015 that inflated his average. He did not look good offensively last season or this spring....driving very few balls. Having missed time in prior year(s) and having played in and out last season was inopportune. Playing regularly in AAA this year, with some expert instruction, might afford shortening the swing and developing his offensive best. If so, he could be valuable late year, or next year, or become something of a trade chip. IMO the amount he could/would add this year defensively would be outweighed by the prospect of enhanced future value....and it would be more fair to him as a ballplayer. Castillo is a classic high-average hitter. Because of his swing plane, he hits a ton of ground balls and line drives and very few fly balls and infield fly balls, which is a classic high-average batted ball profile (ground balls are more likely to go for hits than fly balls, albeit usually singles rather than extra-base hits). He also hits those ground balls reasonably hard-- his average GB exit velo was 87.62 mph, per Baseball Savant, which ranked him 103 out of 345 hitters among hitters with 100+ batted balls recorded (not great, but it puts him between Posey, Tulo and Lind on one side and Maybin, Franco and Bogaerts on the other side, which is not bad company). He also has enough foot speed to beat out throws and rack up infield hits. I think it's a fair point that maybe regular playing time at AAA allows him to re-tool his swing and access his plus raw power. But I'm not particularly optimistic that there's much he can do. Castillo turns 29 in July and has been in the system a year and a half. If there were easy mechanical tweaks for him to make, he probably would have made them by now. If he's still a useful player with his current swing, as I'm inclined to believe, I think they're better off getting some use out of him rather than holding out hope that there's much more there. Plus, there's no reason he can't make adjustments in the majors. What he loses in regular playing time, he gains in quality of coaching and quality of competition.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 31, 2016 18:52:50 GMT -5
Putting Castillo in Triple-A to get him consistent playing time is what they did last year. I get not sending him down if they think that he is what he is at this point.
If you ignore his salary, isn't he kind of a nice bench option? Speed and plus D at all three positions?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 31, 2016 19:35:07 GMT -5
Sure he's a great bench option with his skill set. I just think he could have a lot more value playing a bigger role. Let's not forget that he defected and only had 36 AB in 2013 and 2014. Do to injuries he only had 465 AB in a year and a half. He looked like a very good hitter from jul 27th to Sept 13th before going cold the last few weeks of the season.
I just think a .260 .300 .380 line is more like his floor then ceiling. I just think that slugging % is low. His 5 year slugging % in Cuba was .472. I have to think he would slug over .400 with regular playing time in majors, with a decent chance at getting closer to .450. If does that with his D he could be worth double the bwar's Holt would be the in OF.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 31, 2016 22:04:21 GMT -5
So you guys don't like the idea of trading Castillo to some team that needs a CF? That just seems optimal to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be an acceptable CF on a lot of teams and he may still have some upside. It would seem that they want to give him more time in the hopes that he still might be worth his contract but if some team bites for most of his salary I'd bail in a heartbeat.
It would seem that 5th OF is not acceptable. If we have an opportunity to do better we should and in order to do that he needs to be sold as a CF.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2016 0:02:22 GMT -5
I don't want to trade Castillo. I don't agree with making him 5th OF, but we need him for depth. We have no depth in minors in the OF.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 1, 2016 1:18:07 GMT -5
See that's what doesn't make sense to me. If you think he's a current .260 plus hitter with his great D why would Sox say they are giving 90% of AB to Young and Holt? I have to think Red Sox don't currently think he could do that. I believe that Castillo hitting .260 plus with his D and raw power that is going to show up if given playing time, would have more value to Sox then Holt's .280 average with good on base skills, no power and OK D. Add in fact that Holt playing OF all the time means he won't get to play a lot in the infield where his bat looks a lot better and he has a ton of value. Main reason I think minors is a good idea is to rediscover his power. Per his Cuban stats Castillo has power, but besides 10 games in 2014 he has yet to show it in majors. Holt projects to be something like +17 of range in LF, compared to Castillo's +9. That edge is probably reduced at present, because of their respective experience in Fenway, and Castillo has a hugely better arm. OF Plays Made Runs / 150, 2014-5, translated to CF and regressed for sample size, leaders: Kevin Kiermaier 26.5 Lorenzo Cain 24.4 Brock Holt 19.8 Odubel Herrera 17.1 Juan Lagares 16.4 Jarrod Dyson 15.8 Jason Heyward 15.7 Ender Inciarte 15.4 Jake Marisnick 14.7 A.J. Pollock 14.0
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2016 2:27:37 GMT -5
See that's what doesn't make sense to me. If you think he's a current .260 plus hitter with his great D why would Sox say they are giving 90% of AB to Young and Holt? I have to think Red Sox don't currently think he could do that. I believe that Castillo hitting .260 plus with his D and raw power that is going to show up if given playing time, would have more value to Sox then Holt's .280 average with good on base skills, no power and OK D. Add in fact that Holt playing OF all the time means he won't get to play a lot in the infield where his bat looks a lot better and he has a ton of value. Main reason I think minors is a good idea is to rediscover his power. Per his Cuban stats Castillo has power, but besides 10 games in 2014 he has yet to show it in majors. Holt projects to be something like +17 of range in LF, compared to Castillo's +9. That edge is probably reduced at present, because of their respective experience in Fenway, and Castillo has a hugely better arm. OF Plays Made Runs / 150, 2014-5, translated to CF and regressed for sample size, leaders: Kevin Kiermaier 26.5 Lorenzo Cain 24.4 Brock Holt 19.8 Odubel Herrera 17.1 Juan Lagares 16.4 Jarrod Dyson 15.8 Jason Heyward 15.7 Ender Inciarte 15.4 Jake Marisnick 14.7 A.J. Pollock 14.0 Holt has started only 72 games in OF over 2 years. Your numbers say he's 3rd best defensive OF in game, that's a joke. I watch players like Bradley and Betts and they make special plays. Heck I've seen Castillo make some great plays. I can't remember Holt making great plays in OF. What exactly is OF plays made run? Why not defensive runs saved which is used all the time? What about sample size?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2016 2:39:44 GMT -5
Holt 72 games started in OF 12 defensive runs saved, Castillo 77 games started last two years 17 defensive runs saved.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 1, 2016 2:43:43 GMT -5
I can't remember Holt making great plays in OF. ![](http://www.mlb.com/images/7/9/4/80270794/holt_xy9dlyur.gif)
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2016 2:49:32 GMT -5
I can't remember Holt making great plays in OF. ![](http://www.mlb.com/images/7/9/4/80270794/holt_xy9dlyur.gif) Well now I have. Defensive runs saved stats showed I was wrong he is not OK he is good.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 1, 2016 5:00:59 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe Mar 30 #RedSox optioned Roenis Elias. So it seems Noe Ramirez has the last bullpen
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 1, 2016 8:22:36 GMT -5
I don't want to trade Castillo. I don't agree with making him 5th OF, but we need him for depth. We have no depth in minors in the OF. And our middle infield depth is now tied to our outfield depth, at least on the major league roster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 1, 2016 9:10:16 GMT -5
So you guys don't like the idea of trading Castillo to some team that needs a CF? That just seems optimal to me. He doesn't have to hit that well to be an acceptable CF on a lot of teams and he may still have some upside. It would seem that they want to give him more time in the hopes that he still might be worth his contract but if some team bites for most of his salary I'd bail in a heartbeat. It would seem that 5th OF is not acceptable. If we have an opportunity to do better we should and in order to do that he needs to be sold as a CF. Again, the other part of a trade is that another team needs to want the player. What exactly do you think you're getting in return for him? Based on what he's shown in the majors, what team is saying "You know who we need? Rusney Castillo." At least Sandoval has shown something at some point in the past. And as Umassgrad points out, this organization's outfield depth is abysmal. And if you think about it, not only an outfield injury, but a Pedroia injury puts Castillo back in the lineup.
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Post by station13 on Apr 1, 2016 9:34:13 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe Mar 30 #RedSox optioned Roenis Elias. So it seems Noe Ramirez has the last bullpen Not singing middle relievers and leaving two spot for 2 relievers with FIP north of 5 is scary.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 1, 2016 10:09:15 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe Mar 30 #RedSox optioned Roenis Elias. So it seems Noe Ramirez has the last bullpen Not singing middle relievers and leaving two spot for 2 relievers with FIP north of 5 is scary. You're going by, what, the 13 innings Ramirez pitched in the majors last year? Seriously?
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2016 10:28:12 GMT -5
Holt projects to be something like +17 of range in LF, compared to Castillo's +9. That edge is probably reduced at present, because of their respective experience in Fenway, and Castillo has a hugely better arm. OF Plays Made Runs / 150, 2014-5, translated to CF and regressed for sample size, leaders: Kevin Kiermaier 26.5 Lorenzo Cain 24.4 Brock Holt 19.8 Odubel Herrera 17.1 Juan Lagares 16.4 Jarrod Dyson 15.8 Jason Heyward 15.7 Ender Inciarte 15.4 Jake Marisnick 14.7 A.J. Pollock 14.0 Holt has started only 72 games in OF over 2 years. Your numbers say he's 3rd best defensive OF in game, that's a joke. I watch players like Bradley and Betts and they make special plays. Heck I've seen Castillo make some great plays. I can't remember Holt making great plays in OF. What exactly is OF plays made run? Why not defensive runs saved which is used all the time? What about sample size? Plays made is a component of DRS. Holt doesn't rank so highly when arm is added in, which hurts his overall ranking. This just says that he has great range, essentially. "It doesn't look like it to me" is not a compelling rational argument. And Eric already went through a (gruesomely detailed) SS discussion elsewhere (I think in this thread?). I think you're under-rating Holt defensively, and the data suggest you are too. I'd like to see Castillo produce, and claim LF with at least a .700 OPS, but right now even his terrific Fenway LF defense isn't overcoming what has been really terrible offensive production. Maybe that .260/.300/.380 is not his 50% projection, but it's sure not his floor, either. I hold out hope for his upside, too...but he could be worse. Best-case scenario is that Castillo starts hitting and Benintendi absolutely sledgehammers his way through the minors. The depth problem (with Moncada's final position up in the air) in the OF is eliminated and Castillo maybe looks attractive to a contender at the deadline, with Beni up shortly after.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2016 10:32:02 GMT -5
Well now I have. Defensive runs saved stats showed I was wrong he is not OK he is good. Oops, missed this and didn't give you credit for checking into it. Cheers.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 1, 2016 10:44:52 GMT -5
Putting Castillo in Triple-A to get him consistent playing time is what they did last year. I get not sending him down if they think that he is what he is at this point. If you ignore his salary, isn't he kind of a nice bench option? Speed and plus D at all three positions? I found myself wondering if he wouldn't end up as a 4th outfielder. He's the right one from the defensive perspective, since as you say he can actually play all three positions at a good to very good level. He also makes the most sense from the platoon perspective, what with Bradley hitting and getting on-base this spring. There was some effort to finesse this but I had questions once they signed Young. A Holt/Young platoon could actually do some damage if the lineup is designed to take advantage of that, and Castillo will get his at-bats in since Holt is also the primary backup in the middle infield. In that sense, he is that 4th outfielder. I don't want Young near center-field, and the team has made it clear they want Betts to focus on right. There's a lot of flexibility if you use the right optics on this thing and ignore the cash payout.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 1, 2016 12:13:27 GMT -5
Pete Abraham @peteabe Mar 30 #RedSox optioned Roenis Elias. So it seems Noe Ramirez has the last bullpen Not singing middle relievers and leaving two spot for 2 relievers with FIP north of 5 is scary. I think Noel Ramirez can be a very good middle reliever. You should go check out his minor league stats as they are very good.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2016 12:44:49 GMT -5
Putting Castillo in Triple-A to get him consistent playing time is what they did last year. I get not sending him down if they think that he is what he is at this point. If you ignore his salary, isn't he kind of a nice bench option? Speed and plus D at all three positions? I found myself wondering if he wouldn't end up as a 4th outfielder. He's the right one from the defensive perspective, since as you say he can actually play all three positions at a good to very good level. He also makes the most sense from the platoon perspective, what with Bradley hitting and getting on-base this spring. There was some effort to finesse this but I had questions once they signed Young. A Holt/Young platoon could actually do some damage if the lineup is designed to take advantage of that, and Castillo will get his at-bats in since Holt is also the primary backup in the middle infield. In that sense, he is that 4th outfielder. I don't want Young near center-field, and the team has made it clear they want Betts to focus on right. There's a lot of flexibility if you use the right optics on this thing and ignore the cash payout. I just don't see how Castillo can be the 4th outfielder on a team with Chris Young. You're always going to want to play Young vs. LHP in LF on the short end of the platoon. Castillo would be the backup for both JBJ and Betts, but neither of them should be taken out of the lineup much, so I imagine he'll get quite a bit less time than Young when the 5 of them are healthy. The other interesting thing here is that there is a bit of a conundrum with Holt being counted on to be one of 5 OF. Xander and Petey aren't going to get much rest (or shouldn't) unless they are resting vs. LHP or using a sub-optimal lineup. The advantage of Holt's super-utility status is offset by having Sandoval's zero-utility status on the bench. This could hurt when someone has a 3-5 day injury and lead to seeing Young vs. RHP too often. A better roster construction includes Marrero or another LH outfielder instead of Sandoval.
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Post by jmei on Apr 1, 2016 12:50:40 GMT -5
You're assuming Castillo is useless versus RHP. I don't know if that's a fair assumption. Even he does end up having huge platoon splits, as a player who adds a lot of value defensively, Castillo will still be a useful player even if he's not hitting RHP.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2016 12:52:46 GMT -5
You're assuming Castillo is useless versus RHP. I don't know if that's a fair assumption. Even he does end up having huge platoon splits, as a player who adds a lot of value defensively, Castillo will still be a useful player even if he's not hitting RHP. I'm not assuming that. I'm assuming that Young and Holt are being platooned in LF.
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Post by jmei on Apr 1, 2016 13:16:54 GMT -5
Because Holt will fill in at 2B/SS, Castillo would get as much playing time as your classic fourth outfielder. He fills in for Bradley and Betts to give them days off and fills in for Holt when Holt is playing 2B/SS and there's a RHP on the mound.
Let's say Marrero or Murphy were on the roster instead of Sandoval. If Castillo is still an OK player versus RHP, I don't think either of them would ever get any real playing time, because moving Holt over and starting Castillo would probably be the better option. Castillo is just such a better defender than Murphy and a better enough hitter than Marrero.
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