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2016 Red Sox Spring Training News/Discussion
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 2, 2016 14:50:13 GMT -5
I'm still baffled how anyone talked themselves into all the "Manuel Margot is expendable" nonsense I heard all winter. Margot would be PERFECT for this team right now. Because he was expendable. I don't think Margot is currently ready for majors with only 250 ABs in AA at age 20. By the time Margot is ready chances are Benintendi would be ready for majors. Benintendi is the guy making minor league player of the year lists, not Margot. Do you think Margot is better than Benintendi? I think they're close, and I think Margot is much more likely to be in the bigs this year. Moreover, it's not really Benintendi I'm worried about. It's every outfielder between Benintendi and Betts. Are you going to tell me you're so confident in JBJ/Holt/Young/Castillo that you think Margot wouldn't be useful to this team? If Margot was still here, half this board would be screaming for him to make the opening day roster.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 14:57:08 GMT -5
I just don't see it. If Margot was to play right now in majors I just don't see his bat being better then newly signed Maxwell or even Craig. I just think he would really struggle. I believe the only thing that is major league ready at this point is his D. By midseason Margot and Benintendi could both be in AA. Sure Margot is two levels above currently, but Benintendi does have those 2 years of college ball. Benintendi is currently the popular pick of a player that could reach majors a year after being drafted. He's seen as a polished hitter that will move very quickly through system. When you're talking about emergency depth, I'll take the defense and baserunning of Margot without question. I'm sure Benintendi will go fast, but he couldn't possibly be counted on in the early part of the season the way Margot could be today. ZiPS projects Margot to be a 1.8 fWAR player this year if he played in the majors, even with a .293 OBP. If you look at team projection page for Padres they say 2.1 fwar, which they rank second on team among positional player to only Norris and his fwar of 2.9. I don't see it. I don't see him batting .251 .293 .381 if he played a full season this year. Sure I can easily see him playing great D and adding value with his baserunning. I just think he would be closer to Bradley was when he first got to majors. Where even his elite D was not enough to make up for his lack of a bat. I've never been that high on Margot so maybe I'm dead wrong.
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Post by xanderdu on Apr 2, 2016 14:58:50 GMT -5
Again, the other part of a trade is that another team needs to want the player. What exactly do you think you're getting in return for him? Based on what he's shown in the majors, what team is saying "You know who we need? Rusney Castillo." At least Sandoval has shown something at some point in the past. And as Umassgrad points out, this organization's outfield depth is abysmal. And if you think about it, not only an outfield injury, but a Pedroia injury puts Castillo back in the lineup. I'm still baffled how anyone talked themselves into all the "Manuel Margot is expendable" nonsense I heard all winter. Margot would be PERFECT for this team right now. Margot couldn't even make the Padres outfield, yet somehow he is perfect for the Red Sox? Sorry, not buying that one.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2016 15:17:02 GMT -5
When you're talking about emergency depth, I'll take the defense and baserunning of Margot without question. I'm sure Benintendi will go fast, but he couldn't possibly be counted on in the early part of the season the way Margot could be today. ZiPS projects Margot to be a 1.8 fWAR player this year if he played in the majors, even with a .293 OBP. If you look at team projection page for Padres they say 2.1 fwar, which they rank second on team among positional player to only Norris and his fwar of 2.9. I don't see it. I don't see him batting .251 .293 .381 if he played a full season this year. Sure I can easily see him playing great D and adding value with his baserunning. I just think he would be closer to Bradley was when he first got to majors. Where even his elite D was not enough to make up for his lack of a bat. I've never been that high on Margot so maybe I'm dead wrong. We're talking about emergency depth, not plugging him into the starting lineup. JBJ was great depth even when he couldn't hit, just like Marrero is pretty good depth now too. Also, being able to have real prospects with a major league future in AAA with options is a big luxury. Otherwise, they're stuck DFA'ing players they might not want to so they can add some minor league player that no team wants on their 40-man roster and then having to DFA them a few days later to send them back to the minors or keeping them on the 25 man roster too long when they don't want to because they don't want to lose him to waivers.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2016 15:17:58 GMT -5
I'm still baffled how anyone talked themselves into all the "Manuel Margot is expendable" nonsense I heard all winter. Margot would be PERFECT for this team right now. Margot couldn't even make the Padres outfield, yet somehow he is perfect for the Red Sox? Sorry, not buying that one. We're talking about depth, not putting him on the 25 man roster.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 15:33:29 GMT -5
Because he was expendable. I don't think Margot is currently ready for majors with only 250 ABs in AA at age 20. By the time Margot is ready chances are Benintendi would be ready for majors. Benintendi is the guy making minor league player of the year lists, not Margot. Do you think Margot is better than Benintendi? I think they're close, and I think Margot is much more likely to be in the bigs this year. Moreover, it's not really Benintendi I'm worried about. It's every outfielder between Benintendi and Betts. Are you going to tell me you're so confident in JBJ/Holt/Young/Castillo that you think Margot wouldn't be useful to this team? If Margot was still here, half this board would be screaming for him to make the opening day roster. Fair points. I'm not worried about Bradley at all. I expected a big year from him. I am higher on Castillo then almost anyone on this board. I don't see a star, but I think he can be a good starter. Holt and Young are who they are at this point so no I don't worry about them. I like the depth of our OF on the big league club. Now we have very little depth in minors so sure Margot could help there, but I just don't think he's major league ready at this point. I think Margot needs another full year in the minors.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2016 15:46:57 GMT -5
I'm still baffled how anyone talked themselves into all the "Manuel Margot is expendable" nonsense I heard all winter. Margot would be PERFECT for this team right now. Because he was expendable. I don't think Margot is currently ready for majors with only 250 ABs in AA at age 20. By the time Margot is ready chances are Benintendi would be ready for majors. Benintendi is the guy making minor league player of the year lists, not Margot. Do you think Margot is better than Benintendi? A whole lot of people here did last winter. Possibly that analysis doesn't look so prescient this spring. The jury is still out of course. Edit: I think it's pretty clear the Sox wanted to keep Benintendi over Margot but Margot is possibly a little closer to the majors and more of a San Diego type player. With that ball park they should be choosing speedy, line drive hitting outfielders even though they bet the farm on horrible fielding boppers the last couple years. They care about putting fannies in the seats more than winning. If we had to bring up Margot or Benintendi for an emergency fill in, I'd bet on Benintendi already. I think he is a more advanced hitter already.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2016 16:21:53 GMT -5
Because he was expendable. I don't think Margot is currently ready for majors with only 250 ABs in AA at age 20. By the time Margot is ready chances are Benintendi would be ready for majors. Benintendi is the guy making minor league player of the year lists, not Margot. Do you think Margot is better than Benintendi? A whole lot of people here did last winter. Possibly that analysis doesn't look so prescient this spring. The jury is still out of course. Edit: I think it's pretty clear the Sox wanted to keep Benintendi over Margot but Margot is possibly a little closer to the majors and more of a San Diego type player. With that ball park they should be choosing speedy, line drive hitting outfielders even though they bet the farm on horrible fielding boppers the last couple years. They care about putting fannies in the seats more than winning. If we had to bring up Margot or Benintendi for an emergency fill in, I'd bet on Benintendi already. I think he is a more advanced hitter already. Benintendi is starting in Salem and you think he's an emergency callup right now? smh
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 16:26:10 GMT -5
If you look at team projection page for Padres they say 2.1 fwar, which they rank second on team among positional player to only Norris and his fwar of 2.9. I don't see it. I don't see him batting .251 .293 .381 if he played a full season this year. Sure I can easily see him playing great D and adding value with his baserunning. I just think he would be closer to Bradley was when he first got to majors. Where even his elite D was not enough to make up for his lack of a bat. I've never been that high on Margot so maybe I'm dead wrong. We're talking about emergency depth, not plugging him into the starting lineup. JBJ was great depth even when he couldn't hit, just like Marrero is pretty good depth now too. Also, being able to have real prospects with a major league future in AAA with options is a big luxury. Otherwise, they're stuck DFA'ing players they might not want to so they can add some minor league player that no team wants on their 40-man roster and then having to DFA them a few days later to send them back to the minors or keeping them on the 25 man roster too long when they don't want to because they don't want to lose him to waivers. Guys don't worry we have Brentz on 40 man roster!!! I'll take Kimbrel and our OF over the luxury of having Margot's in minors for depth.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 16:40:11 GMT -5
A whole lot of people here did last winter. Possibly that analysis doesn't look so prescient this spring. The jury is still out of course. Edit: I think it's pretty clear the Sox wanted to keep Benintendi over Margot but Margot is possibly a little closer to the majors and more of a San Diego type player. With that ball park they should be choosing speedy, line drive hitting outfielders even though they bet the farm on horrible fielding boppers the last couple years. They care about putting fannies in the seats more than winning. If we had to bring up Margot or Benintendi for an emergency fill in, I'd bet on Benintendi already. I think he is a more advanced hitter already. Benintendi is starting in Salem and you think he's an emergency callup right now? smh This whole thing is crazy as both aren't currently ready. If the Red Sox needed an emergency starter right now they wouldn't call up either player if we still had Margot. I really think there is a zero percent chance. What he's saying is that if you had to predict which one would do better right now in majors he is going with Benintendi and I agree. SMH!!!!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2016 16:56:25 GMT -5
A whole lot of people here did last winter. Possibly that analysis doesn't look so prescient this spring. The jury is still out of course. Edit: I think it's pretty clear the Sox wanted to keep Benintendi over Margot but Margot is possibly a little closer to the majors and more of a San Diego type player. With that ball park they should be choosing speedy, line drive hitting outfielders even though they bet the farm on horrible fielding boppers the last couple years. They care about putting fannies in the seats more than winning. If we had to bring up Margot or Benintendi for an emergency fill in, I'd bet on Benintendi already. I think he is a more advanced hitter already. Benintendi is starting in Salem and you think he's an emergency callup right now? smh I actually said something different but it was probably more nuanced than you interpreted it to be. No one looks at Benintendi as an emergency fill in while they probably would look at Margot that way but in my opinion, Benintendi already would put up better numbers in the majors than Margot would. Benintendi has been my top prospect since last fall. I may well be wrong but I like my trend lines. I can see a case for any of our top 4 though. I just didn't put Margot in that group.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2016 17:08:12 GMT -5
Dave Cameron's Fangraph article on resting places for Castillo indicates I'm not the only one who feels the obvious solution is to try to trade Castillo now for a team needing a center fielder. He indicates San Diego as an optimal choice and they do have Justin Upton as a possible option. They are in rebuild mode and he is a big contract. He is pulling the ball more and making harder contact recently. His spray charts indicate solid success in Fenway and he is definitely a proven commodity. He would seem to be a quintessential Dombrowski type move of a proven guy, even though at a high price. I'd trade Castillo for him right now and pick up all the difference in their contracts. The Padres would get better D and more years of control and possibly a solid upside. If we have to get creative and pick up less of the contract but throw in some MILB guys like Johnson he would also be an excellent fit for them. I think this is exactly the kind of approach we should be taking. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-rusney-castillo-a-new-home/
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 17:18:37 GMT -5
Dave Cameron's Fangraph article on resting places for Castillo indicates I'm not the only one who feels the obvious solution is to try to trade Castillo now for a team needing a center fielder. He indicates San Diego as an optimal choice and they do have Justin Upton as a possible option. They are in rebuild mode and he is a big contract. He is pulling the ball more and making harder contact recently. His spray charts indicate solid success in Fenway and he is definitely a proven commodity. He would seem to be a quintessential Dombrowski type move of a proven guy, even though at a high price. I'd trade Castillo for him right now and pick up all the difference in their contracts. The Padres would get better D and more years of control and possibly a solid upside. If we have to get creative and pick up less of the contract but throw in some MILB guys like Johnson he would also be an excellent fit for them. I think this is exactly the kind of approach we should be taking. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-rusney-castillo-a-new-home/That article is downright bad! I take Justin Upton in 2 seconds, but he's on Tigers it's his brother Melvin and I want nothing to do with him.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2016 17:28:13 GMT -5
My bad apparently. I thought Justin was still with the Padres. This is the type of deal I think we should be looking for though. A better hitting left fielder ( A Justin Upton type proven slugger even if only 1-2 years duration ) maybe even with a big contract if they are more proven than Castillo. Even if we need to include another prospect like Kopech or Johnson in a trade to get something done.
If you look at Castillo as likely to be sunk cost even a trade for Melvin makes sense if he's less sunk cost. I'd even do that trade straight up at this point.
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jimed14
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2016 18:19:59 GMT -5
So all we need is a guy like someone who just signed a 6 year $132 million contract. Sure. Those guys are always getting traded this time of year especially for a trade package of Castillo and Johnson.
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Post by dnfl333 on Apr 2, 2016 18:31:41 GMT -5
My bad apparently. I thought Justin was still with the Padres. This is the type of deal I think we should be looking for though. A better hitting left fielder ( A Justin Upton type proven slugger even if only 1-2 years duration ) maybe even with a big contract if they are more proven than Castillo. Even if we need to include another prospect like Kopech or Johnson in a trade to get something done. If you look at Castillo as likely to be sunk cost even a trade for Melvin makes sense if he's less sunk cost. I'd even do that trade straight up at this point. Pull yourself together mate! Castillo needs time
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 2, 2016 19:16:17 GMT -5
Great first post.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 2, 2016 21:29:28 GMT -5
Jake Cosart @jakecosart 5h5 hours ago Spring training 2016 in the books! Watch out for that @greenvilledrive bullpen this year ?⚾️ ? AustinGlorius ⚾ ⚾ @austinglorius @jakecosart @greenvilledrive we coming in hot? Note, all the question marks are emoticons.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 2, 2016 21:34:43 GMT -5
We have spent over $10 mil per year for 2 years in a row waiting for Castillo to be more than our 5th outfielder. There is a clock ticking for Castillo to make something good happen or he's gone within a year.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 2, 2016 21:41:52 GMT -5
Dave Cameron's Fangraph article on resting places for Castillo indicates I'm not the only one who feels the obvious solution is to try to trade Castillo now for a team needing a center fielder. He indicates San Diego as an optimal choice and they do have Justin Upton as a possible option. They are in rebuild mode and he is a big contract. He is pulling the ball more and making harder contact recently. His spray charts indicate solid success in Fenway and he is definitely a proven commodity. He would seem to be a quintessential Dombrowski type move of a proven guy, even though at a high price. I'd trade Castillo for him right now and pick up all the difference in their contracts. The Padres would get better D and more years of control and possibly a solid upside. If we have to get creative and pick up less of the contract but throw in some MILB guys like Johnson he would also be an excellent fit for them. I think this is exactly the kind of approach we should be taking. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-rusney-castillo-a-new-home/Melvin (B.J.) Upton, not his younger brother. Melvin is a high-K, low-everything guy. Totally different deal. Might help the Sox shed some salary until Benintendi takes LF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2016 23:00:12 GMT -5
We have spent over $10 mil per year for 2 years in a row waiting for Castillo to be more than our 5th outfielder. There is a clock ticking for Castillo to make something good happen or he's gone within a year. The money is a sunk cost. It should have very little to do with any decision involving him, the obvious exception being if the portion of his salary that another team will be paying makes the difference between being over or under the tax limit. Which is very unlikely. There are scenarios where you have an equally good or better backup CF on hand, who is cheaper, and so moving Castillo for what you can get makes sense. But there's no such player on our radar. If he turns out to be no more than the very good backup CF / 4th OFer that he currently appears, sure, you regret overpaying him, but that has nothing to do with the decision to keep him or get rid of him. It's like, you pay in advance for a meal at an expensive restaurant where the food is supposed to be great. They serve the soup, and it's definitely pretty good, but certainly not worth the money you paid. Do you say to your dinner companion, "The appetizer better be great. If it's just pretty good, too, we're walking out!" Of course you don't. You lower your expectation, and you stay, and you have a pretty good meal. Maybe, in fact, you get surprised by a great dinner or dessert. And then you figure out why you were misled into thinking some or all of the food was going to be great, so that this doesn't happen again in the future.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2016 23:32:23 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Apr 3, 2016 0:46:41 GMT -5
We have spent over $10 mil per year for 2 years in a row waiting for Castillo to be more than our 5th outfielder. There is a clock ticking for Castillo to make something good happen or he's gone within a year. Gone where? How much of his contract would we have to eat to move him? Or are you saying he becomes a permanent residence of Rhode Island?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 3, 2016 1:15:10 GMT -5
Ummm OK what's your point? That because it was on sports center I should have remembered it? Sports Center is outlawed in my house. My wife can put up with all the sports I watch but she draws the line at shows that just talks about games that have already happend. So I get my info from ESPN.com, so no web gems for me in a long time.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 3, 2016 2:53:30 GMT -5
There are 7 significant OFers who are in their walk years. Ranked by projected WAR/600 PA (average of PECOTA, ZiPS, and Steamer); age is for 2017.
4.1 Jose Bautista, RF, Tor (36) 3.4 Carlos Gomez, CF, Hou (31) 3.0 Josh Reddick, RF, Oak (30) 1.5 Austin Jackson, CF, CHA (30) 1.5 Michael Saunders, LF, Tor (30) 1.4 Colby Rasmus, LF, Hou (30) 1.3 Jon Jay, LF, SD (30)
As the only above-average player on a below-average team, Reddick seems almost certain to be traded. If more than one contender wants an OF upgrade in July, they'll have to overpay. We'd rather not be that team, but if they feel we really need him, obviously we'd be well positioned to get him. And we'd certainly not like to be in a position where Jackson or Jay would be an upgrade in LF.
Bautista and Gomez could sign extensions, so we'll guess that there will be only two or three really desirable FA OFers on the market next winter. So for Castillo to acquire some positive trade value, he really doesn't have to establish himself as an average CFer, just as a guy who falls a little short. I think there will be teams looking for a guy who could give them 1.7 or 1.8 WAR. And of course, if he can establish that level of value, it takes pressure off the team to get Benintendi to MLB too soon.
Right now he projects to be a +2 CFer defensively (-0.5 range, +0.4 Good Fielding Plays, +2.0 Arm), but that's with a ton of regression to the mean from his SSS. There's a solid chance he's better than that, maybe quite a bit better. That's absolutely something to watch, just as much as his offense. It is, BTW, +14 in LF (+9.1, +1.2, +4.0).
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