Jake Odorizzi

I don't see that deal working at all. For starters, it's a intra-division trade between two teams expecting to remain competitive for the time being. The Rays, while Odorizzi isn't a vital part of their rotation, would be trading him to a division rival with years of cost control left on his contract. And the Sox would be giving up a near MLB-ready starter who has the potential to be superior to Odorizzi, as well as their number two prospect, one of the best hitting prospects in the game (who is almost certainly no more than 3 years away -- not 5).

The Rays would have no choice but to say yes to this deal if the Sox offered it. Odorizzi is good but not great -- you just can't give up an elite prospect and a talented 23 year old LHP starter for him. Especially since, as nice as it'd be to add a solid cost-controlled starter, we don't have a glaring weakness for a starter right now. Odorizzi certainly would be an upgrade over Kelly/Wright/Owens/Elias in 2016, but we're probably talking 2 WAR or so at best. You don't give up two premier young talents for that.

No thanks if the package is Devers and Owens.

I have no problem waiting 3 years for Devers, nor am I overly concerned about his defense at 3b. Some reports I've read have stated that he has improved defensively and might be able to stay at 3b. Otherwise he might wind up a productive 1b or at worst a productive DH. The bat should be middle of the order.

Then you add a valuable young cost controlled pitcher with upside in Owens, well if I were Tampa I'd jump at a deal like that. Odorizzi is good, but he's not THAT good in which I'd make that deal if I were the Sox. He'd be an immediate upgrade to the rotation, but that's too high a cost. Honestly, I'm not 100% convinced that Odorizzi's future is better than that of Owens.

If I were Tampa I'd want one of Swihart or Vazquez. Of course if Devers was offered, I'd accept pretty quickly.

These things always work out.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Moncada move to RF.

While I certainly agree that it can't be *presumed* that Owens will improve, compare his rookie year results with Odorizzi's:
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13143&position=P
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6397&position=P
Specifically, Owens's walk rate was 3.4/9 versus 3.1/9 for Odorizzi. That's a minuscule difference, and Odorizzi was 2 years older, and had a full season throughout which to improve. It's no more unrealistic to expect Owens to improve to the mid-2s like Odorizzi than it is to expect Odorizzi to regress because he has fairly average stuff and no third pitch of the quality of Owens's third (SL) or fourth (CU) pitches. Furthermore, **read the Owens thread** (it's got some nice tidbits) and you'll see Eric Van's fairly convincing data to suggest that Owens is a good bet to develop at least average, if not better, control.

There's no guarantee that Odorizzi will repeat his performance from last year...true, at 26, he's in his prime, and what you see is probably what you get. But it's not assured...Wade Miley (a *very* similar pitcher, albeit LH) looked great at the same age but never progressed, and actually regressed a bit. Even if Odorizzi keeps it up, that 3.35 in TB is probably more like a 3.85 in Fenway. You'd be giving up a huge amount of talent (and the current/future $ cost difference between the two pitchers, along with the potentially monumental cost of obtaining a 3/4-hole bat) for a very, very small *theoretical* improvement in your rotation. FWIW, too, (tall) lefties supposedly take longer to harness their control, but it's not like it doesn't happen. Johnson, Lee, Lester, Glavine, Kershaw, Moyer...they all had below-avg control on arrival and went on to become tremendous pitchers with above-avg control. FWIW2, I saw Owens in person when he went 8 innings and whiffed 11 with the SeaDogs in AA, and I was as surprised as the batters were. He's not impressive unless you just watch the batters and ignore the radar readings. His FB command will come, the CH will become more effective because of it, his HR rate will drop, GB rate rise, and his walk rate will drop while his K rate goes up. If anything, a tall, lanky lefty is the **last** guy you give up on so early.

Wow you are all over the place with this post. So it sounds to me like you wouldn't trade either of those 2 players for anyone. Now it may not seem like it, but I'm one who hates trading prospects too, but it's the cost of doing business. If you think that you could get a #2/#3 pitcher who has 4 years of control left who has yet to reach their ceiling for solely Henry Owens or less, then you are delusional. I hope the Red Sox never trade Moncada, Benintendi, Espinosa, or even Kopech....but Devers is the furthest away and has incredible trade value right now. He's still at minimum 3 years away from Boston, 4 max, but probably about 5 years away from contributing over a full season. By that time I think by upgrading our rotation will put us in the best position to win as many World Series in that timeframe. Devers is very unlikely to help us win a World Series by 2019. BTW - I didn't say Devers was a 'throw-in', if you re-read my post I said Marco Hernandez would be a throw-in, Devers would be the centerpiece. 

As for Odorizzi, sure he doesn't rely on velocity like a lot of other starters do but what he does better than most pitchers is change eye levels for the hitter. He definitely knows how to setup his great changeup by commanding his fastball up in the zone....which usually results in weak contact on both pitches, which is why I'm not too concerned about an abnormally low BABIP...not to mention some of that has to do with a strong Rays defense in which the Red Sox might actually have a better defense in 2016 assuming Pablo doesn't bulk back up to 450lbs, so I think that a lower BABIP is sustainable. Your right, Odorizzi has not pitched 170 innings yet (I guess being within 2 innings the past 2 years doesn't count) but last season he was on pace for 200+ innings before he had a mild oblique strain that cost him about a month, nothing that would be of any concern long term. Odorizzi had a 3.6 WAR last season according to BR which puts him at 25th in the majors last season (min 160ip, better than Lynn/Sale/Salazar/Ross/Lester), as well as being 22nd in the majors for WHIP (min 160ip, better than Hernandez/Hamels/Lackey/Zimm) - something Owens will never accomplish - and he had a QS% of 61 which is 32nd in the majors (better than Salazar/Cueto/Kluber/Carrasco/Archer). Now if he ever develops a decent 3rd pitch then he has the potential to improve over 2015....sure he'll never be an ace but I'll put a lot of money down that he will have a more successful next 4 years over Owens (and Devers for that matter).

I've been saying all along the Sox should trade for another SP....I wanted Tyson Ross last year, and I think they should have tried for Salazar too, but teams don't seem willing to deal these types of pitchers unless they get a huge return. I hear it all the time that teams won't trade in the division but it happens quite often and if it's the only way for a team like the Rays to get an affordable future impact bat then that's what they have to do. Either way I think the Red Sox FO should consider a trade to strengthen the rotation, because there are definitely a lot of question marks past David Price.

Actually, my post is pretty straightforward. If you're having trouble following it, that's not my problem. Like I said, I've made my opinion on Owens known elsewhere, and there's data in that thread to back me up. You haven't bothered to address the similarity in Owens's debut and Odorizzi's, nor have you addressed the huge benefit Odorizzi got from playing in a pitcher's park in front of a quality defense. Well, except to say that the Sox might be better defensively this year, which would, you know, help Owens too. You say Odorizzi's going to get better but deny Owens will. Odorizzi's 2015 fWAR was 2.9 and Owens's was 0.7 in about 40% as many innings. The difference is less than one win if you project Owens's performance over 165 innings **and he doesn't improve at all**. You want to trade away a pitcher who's two years younger, has an extra year of control, and include a top-20 prospect who's a middle-of-the-order threat to gain one, or maybe two wins, provided Odorizzi doesn't backslide.

Your "you wouldn't trade them for anyone" quip is a fallacy of reason. Of course I would, but not for a 2/3 starter, because I'm pretty certain Owens will be that within a year or two, **and they don't need Odorizzi to be successful anyway** No doubt, he's a solid pitcher, but I'm not convinced that he has a whole lot more upside. And he has significant downside. He gives up HR just as often as Owens, only in a much tougher HR park. He might never develop that third pitch...yet you seem certain Owens will never command his FB. They had similar debut walk rates...and despite Odorizzi dropping his, you're convinced Owens can't. Every argument you make *for* Odorizzi you project as *unlikely or impossible* for Owens, without rationale. Owens routinely put up WHIPs in the 1.1s in the minors, but somehow he can't in the majors? Odorizzi's was 1.28 in his first full season, Owens 1.37 (again, in a hitter's park with a much worse defense, and less MLB experience). 0.09 is hardly an insurmountable difference, especially since Owens was 2 1/2 years younger when he did it.

I think Owens is undervalued, so I wouldn't be quick to trade him in general, because the return would be relatively poor. But I would for the right player. Odorizzi definitely is not one of them. And the same goes for Devers...if I'm trading him, I want premium talent in return, not just "good," especially when I think the Sox have nearly as-good options. It's really not that wild a stance to take...every other poster has said that combo is a huge overpay, too. Really, for me, though, it comes down to simply, I'm not enamored of acquiring 3-WAR pitchers when the team has plenty of 1.5-2 WAR options with upside, unless they can do it for a steal. Maybe that marginal improvement is a difference-maker come September, but I'm betting not.

I hate the Rays, almost as much as I hate the yankees. I would never want the Sox to trade with them, unless they wanted the Sox garbage.

Allen Craig is available if you want them Rays. Have at it.

You don't have to dislike a player to trade him.  It's not like deciding which shirts in your closet to give to the thrift shop because you don't like them.  

Devers being chubby when he signed (and not having great range) kind of led to him being looked at as a future 1b/DH, which nobody really gets excited about, especially not when he's OPSing low-700s. Of course, he was extremely age-advanced, but a lot of people don't really care, they just see the numbers. I'm pretty high on Devers too, though, partially because I think he'll be a good 3b who hits .300 with power and his share of walks.

He just hit .288 with 50 extra base hits as an 18-year old in the South Atlantic League!

**Really** young for his league, with solid results, which (if one looks at recent prospects who did similar things, eg Bogaerts, Betts, and E Rodriguez, bodes pretty well for MLB success *despite* rapid movement through the system. Devers will be 19 in high A, perhaps even AA if he takes a step forward towards the end of the year. I'm high on him because he's a PREMIUM hitting prospect. Don't forget, CW still questions his defense, projecting him as a DH/1b type. Yet evaluators, even considering that, still have him as a top-20 prospect, largely untested in low A ball, and just entering his age-19 season. For reference, Xander Bogaerts was ranked #58 by BA at the same point in his development, as a SS (with questions about his fielding projecting him as a 3b). Mookie was unranked. Think about that for a second...that's how high scouts are on Devers's bat. The team's current needs have no influence on me...it's the idea of a guy who could very well approximate a LH medium between Miggy Cabrera and Adrian Beltre.