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Post by jimed14 on Mar 12, 2016 11:47:04 GMT -5
I haven't been able (ok, I can't be bothered) to watch any spring training games, but I notice no one is really talking about Hanley's defense at first. I'm guessing this is a good thing. I've seen most of the games. On the one hand he's looked OK, on the other there haven't been any spectacular plays to be made or even big stretches that I've seen. Nothing really to go on except that he doesn't look clueless like in left field. He's usually where he's supposed to be. This is why the worst defensive players move to 1B. It's just not that difficult most of the time. But it's good to see that he's not missing easy plays or missing the bag with his foot.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 12, 2016 12:40:56 GMT -5
After seeing a little bit, reading a bit more, the end results feels like it's taking shape: Hanley's going to be pretty good at fielding the position when it comes to balls hit at him, he'll throw well for a first baseman for whatever that's worth, he's going to miss assignments sometimes on cut-offs, and he's going to be quite bad at picking balls in the dirt. The only way this turns into a real disaster is if it makes Xander gun shy about throwing over there.
If he hits, he should be fine, a positive contributor. And Shaw is a nice backup for if/when he gets hurt. This seems like it'll work.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Mar 12, 2016 13:25:53 GMT -5
Third baseman are hard to find. David Freese, a 2.2 WAR 3B in 2015 literally just signed for peanuts after getting little to no interest
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 12, 2016 14:04:19 GMT -5
After seeing a little bit, reading a bit more, the end results feels like it's taking shape: Hanley's going to be pretty good at fielding the position when it comes to balls hit at him, he'll throw well for a first baseman for whatever that's worth, he's going to miss assignments sometimes on cut-offs, and he's going to be quite bad at picking balls in the dirt. The only way this turns into a real disaster is if it makes Xander gun shy about throwing over there. If he hits, he should be fine, a positive contributor. And Shaw is a nice backup for if/when he gets hurt. This seems like it'll work. As a former shortstop, I think he'll do more than fine picking balls out of the dirt. I think that could be a strength, actually. I remember hearing, although I can't remember where, that he's looking good in practice at picking balls in the dirt. I agree he'll miss a few assignments, though. And I think the shoulder bothered him quite a bit last year. I feel good that he'll hit this year.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 12, 2016 14:08:34 GMT -5
Third baseman are hard to find. David Freese, a 2.2 WAR 3B in 2015 literally just signed for peanuts after getting little to no interest Freese is 33, played in 121 games last season, horrible k/bb ratio, mediocre hit tool, no power or on base ability. Not familiar with his defense.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Mar 12, 2016 14:10:49 GMT -5
David Freese, a 2.2 WAR 3B in 2015 literally just signed for peanuts after getting little to no interest Freese is 33, played in 121 games last season, horrible k/bb ratio, mediocre hit tool, no power or on base ability. Not familiar with his defense. Yeah, and Freese is that unimpressive and he's still 4 WAR above Panda. My point is no one was gagging for a third baseman. And certainly not for Panda.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 12, 2016 15:15:27 GMT -5
I would imagine that you're in similar shape that you were in last year, assuming that you look similar and weigh similar. This is all we're judging Pablo on. We didn't watch you play 120 something baseball games last year. I also assume that when someone decides to take his career much more seriously like John Lackey in 2013, that he shows up to camp looking significantly different. I seriously believe nothing that the Red Sox said regarding Sandoval after they told the huge lie about his body fat %. But what unchanged shape is that? If there is a strong correlation between weight and being in shape, if Sandoval's being out of shape is equivalent to his being overweight, if that's just two different ways of saying the same thing, then I have to be in great shape, right? And, of course, every sumo wrestler is in lousy shape, not to mention half the linemen in the NFL. If you're eating 70% cacao, you're getting about 1% by weight of theophylline. Same family (methylxanthines) as caffeine, but with less nervous system effects and better cardiac stimulant properties. Chocolate consumption is also correlated with reduced MI risk. So I'd say you're in great shape. The whole Panda thing is tired. If he stinks in May, I'll say something. Until then, it's all just unnecessary complaining. Same goes for Hanley at 1b...he's been OK, but I'm reserving relief until May. Actually, I'm in terrible shape. My legs get tired from walking up a flight of stairs. If I do 15 minutes of treadmill walking at the gym, I'm sore for days. I don't know where I rank in terms of lower-half muscle strength for men my age, but it's as probably as bad as my weight is good. One might then ask what correlation there actually is between, on the one hand, working out and building muscular strength and quickness, and, on the other, eating moderately and keeping your weight down. And the answer is, basically none the f--- whatsoever. Sandoval was a dangerous hitter and plus defender carrying excess weight, and the fact that he's still carrying excess weight tells us nothing at all about how much work he did over the winter to rebuild body strength and quickness. The notion that you can tell that he didn't do any such work by looking at him and seeing the same physique is ludicrous, although not quite as funny as the assertion that "his legs look fat," which, to be true, would require a combination of X-ray vision and alien (or female) physique. What we do know is that he claims to have worked very hard all winter just doing that, while admitting that he ignored his weight. And we also know that he ought to have been highly motivated to do the former, while given his past experience, it's hard to see how he could motivate himself to do the latter. I have no idea what his weight is relative to his best years in SF, and if he's X pounds heavier, that is cause for some concern. Given the same lower-body strength, that would ding him a bit of range defensively. But the assertion that he couldn't have done any work in the off-season because he didn't lose any weight is just so demonstrably wrong that it's repeated vehement assertion strikes me as more disturbing than any eating disorder. What's the reason for needing to hate someone that badly, in defiance of all reason? Oh, trust me, I'm in 100% agreement re: appearance as a judge of conditioning. I was being facetious. I was 6', 155# in college as a long sprinter/middle distance runner. I'm 30# heavier now, but wear the same clothes and probably *look* much stronger. The difference is that back then I could bench press almost 300# and ran the quarter mile in well under 50 seconds. I'd be lucky to lift half and run twice that, now. I maintain that sustained performance (or lack there of) and not simple appearance is what matters with Panda, and to some extent, Hanley. Sandoval's performance on the field will tell us what kind of shape he's in.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 12, 2016 15:21:51 GMT -5
After seeing a little bit, reading a bit more, the end results feels like it's taking shape: Hanley's going to be pretty good at fielding the position when it comes to balls hit at him, he'll throw well for a first baseman for whatever that's worth, he's going to miss assignments sometimes on cut-offs, and he's going to be quite bad at picking balls in the dirt. The only way this turns into a real disaster is if it makes Xander gun shy about throwing over there. If he hits, he should be fine, a positive contributor. And Shaw is a nice backup for if/when he gets hurt. This seems like it'll work. As a former shortstop, I think he'll do more than fine picking balls out of the dirt. I think that could be a strength, actually. I remember hearing, although I can't remember where, that he's looking good in practice at picking balls in the dirt. I agree he'll miss a few assignments, though. And I think the shoulder bothered him quite a bit last year. I feel good that he'll hit this year. I think he's talking about on throws, which is very different from off the bat. It seems like he's had a little trouble with bounced throws. Could be that he just needs reps there.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 12, 2016 17:58:31 GMT -5
As a former shortstop, I think he'll do more than fine picking balls out of the dirt. I think that could be a strength, actually. I remember hearing, although I can't remember where, that he's looking good in practice at picking balls in the dirt. I agree he'll miss a few assignments, though. And I think the shoulder bothered him quite a bit last year. I feel good that he'll hit this year. I think he's talking about on throws, which is very different from off the bat. It seems like he's had a little trouble with bounced throws. Could be that he just needs reps there. Yeah, Hanley's got decent hands, but picking throws in the dirt is an art ... Napoli took to it right away, maybe because he was a catcher, but I think Hanley's going to struggle with it a little bit. But we'll see; I think he'll be at least adequate out there, maybe he'll surprise and be better than that. But "adequate" is way better than last year, that's for sure.
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Post by mredsox89 on Mar 12, 2016 19:56:04 GMT -5
I think he's talking about on throws, which is very different from off the bat. It seems like he's had a little trouble with bounced throws. Could be that he just needs reps there. Yeah, Hanley's got decent hands, but picking throws in the dirt is an art ... Napoli took to it right away, maybe because he was a catcher, but I think Hanley's going to struggle with it a little bit. But we'll see; I think he'll be at least adequate out there, maybe he'll surprise and be better than that. But "adequate" is way better than last year, that's for sure. Adequate is spectacular if he can hit well, similar numbers to before his shoulder injury last season He was so bad in LF last year with no improvement that even top end offensive numbers wouldn't have been much of a net positive. His value ceiling is lower, but his value floor is higher, at least that's what I'm gauging going into this year, with the assumption that unless he picks up 1B very well, he's most likely the 80% DH starting in 2017
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Post by michael on Mar 13, 2016 10:04:10 GMT -5
I've seen all the home games so far and Hanley has failed to handle two throws 'in the dirt' resulting in Es charged to X and Panda. IMO he should
have caught both throws which were on his glove side and bounced to about hip level. He was 'snatching ala Ricky' at them. Word has it that
BB has since ordered "no more snatching!!!" and Hanley has much improved in that area. As to stretching for throws he is improving. He is
waiting until the ball is thrown before committing to a stretch (yeah, I know that's what you're supposed to do but as a former 1st baseman I
can say it takes a few reps to get that right). His ground ball play is as cited above very good. He does have a bit of Yaz in his quickly leaving
the bag after a putout. Sometime he'll get called for it, as did Yaz, and it will go away.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 13, 2016 14:05:31 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Mar 13, 2016 14:28:23 GMT -5
Eh, that was a pitch down-and-in, right in the lefty power sweet spot, in the eighth inning of a Spring Training game off a soft-tossing non-roster-invitee. I wouldn't get too carried away.
ADD: to be clear, Shaw has looked very impressive this Spring Training and has absolutely earned (and will receive) at least a start or two per week at 1B and 3B, with the potential for more if he continues to impress and Sandoval or Ramirez struggle. But he's still a guy who struggles with high-velo fastballs on the inside half due to a longish swing and middling bat speed and whose timing-based hitting mechanics leave him vulnerable to getting out of whack and going on long cold streaks. He looks like a useful role player, but again, let's not get carried away here.
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Post by ray88h66 on Mar 13, 2016 14:41:49 GMT -5
I've seen all the home games so far and Hanley has failed to handle two throws 'in the dirt' resulting in Es charged to X and Panda. IMO he should have caught both throws which were on his glove side and bounced to about hip level. He was 'snatching ala Ricky' at them. Word has it that BB has since ordered "no more snatching!!!" and Hanley has much improved in that area. As to stretching for throws he is improving. He is waiting until the ball is thrown before committing to a stretch (yeah, I know that's what you're supposed to do but as a former 1st baseman I can say it takes a few reps to get that right). His ground ball play is as cited above very good. He does have a bit of Yaz in his quickly leaving the bag after a putout. Sometime he'll get called for it, as did Yaz, and it will go away.[/b]Well done and thanks for the memories. Before replay many guys were good at that. Yaz got away with it a lot. George Scott did it to. Also wanted to add, George Scott was great at stretching, so Hanley can learn.
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ianrs
Veteran
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Post by ianrs on Mar 13, 2016 15:30:50 GMT -5
Eh, that was a pitch down-and-in, right in the lefty power sweet spot, in the eighth inning of a Spring Training game off a soft-tossing non-roster-invitee. I wouldn't get too carried away. ADD: to be clear, Shaw has looked very impressive this Spring Training and has absolutely earned (and will receive) at least a start or two per week at 1B and 3B, with the potential for more if he continues to impress and Sandoval or Ramirez struggle. But he's still a guy who struggles with high-velo fastballs on the inside half due to a longish swing and middling bat speed and whose timing-based hitting mechanics leave him vulnerable to getting out of whack and going on long cold streaks. He looks like a useful role player, but again, let's not get carried away here. I agree with this and think its been easy to get carried away with Shaw based on a few small samples. Particularly during ST. Is Shaw better than his prospect status ever was? Probably. But let's pump the brakes until we get a better read a few months into the season. Does anybody remember when Napoli tore it up last Spring...? How about JBJ's famed spring? The season is a long one.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 13, 2016 15:39:23 GMT -5
Eh, that was a pitch down-and-in, right in the lefty power sweet spot, in the eighth inning of a Spring Training game off a soft-tossing non-roster-invitee. I wouldn't get too carried away. ADD: to be clear, Shaw has looked very impressive this Spring Training and has absolutely earned (and will receive) at least a start or two per week at 1B and 3B, with the potential for more if he continues to impress and Sandoval or Ramirez struggle. But he's still a guy who struggles with high-velo fastballs on the inside half due to a longish swing and middling bat speed and whose timing-based hitting mechanics leave him vulnerable to getting out of whack and going on long cold streaks. He looks like a useful role player, but again, let's not get carried away here. It's not like the bar is set that high for him to be better vs. LHP than Pablo.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 13, 2016 15:42:52 GMT -5
Eh, that was a pitch down-and-in, right in the lefty power sweet spot, in the eighth inning of a Spring Training game off a soft-tossing non-roster-invitee. I wouldn't get too carried away. ADD: to be clear, Shaw has looked very impressive this Spring Training and has absolutely earned (and will receive) at least a start or two per week at 1B and 3B, with the potential for more if he continues to impress and Sandoval or Ramirez struggle. But he's still a guy who struggles with high-velo fastballs on the inside half due to a longish swing and middling bat speed and whose timing-based hitting mechanics leave him vulnerable to getting out of whack and going on long cold streaks. He looks like a useful role player, but again, let's not get carried away here. I agree with this and think its been easy to get carried away with Shaw based on a few small samples. Particularly during ST. Is Shaw better than his prospect status ever was? Probably. But let's pump the brakes until we get a better read a few months into the season. Does anybody remember when Napoli tore it up last Spring...? How about JBJ's famed spring? The season is a long one. 248 PAs in the majors last year is not that tiny of a sample size. I am very confident that he's a better 3B than Sandoval today and you can bookmark this post and call me out later if you want.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 13, 2016 17:03:09 GMT -5
It really is a small sample. I like the guy and he'll certainly have a roster spot. I'm also hopeful that he can build on last season. I wasn't going to post this but with all the discussion it seemed useful. At the tail end of last season his performance started to stabilize and I wanted to compare that to previous episoses. He's been a streaky player, just as jmei states. The chart I posted here makes that clear. But notice how he finished with one of the longer stable periods he's shown in his MiLB/MLB career. I wanted a way to do some comparisons so I used the underlying data from that graph to get to that. Here's the chart. I'll explain it afterwards since it will probably make a lot more sense visually than it may in the abstract (click to expand): The original data was for a 20 point moving window of games. I went one level deeper, examining the variability (standard deviation) in a 10 pt moving window over that list of derived 20 pt values. I subtracted that from 1 to get a measure of the stability, and then multiplied the OPS by that. In a nutshell: the lower the variability and the higher the OPS, the better the number is. The eyeball test is if it persists over an extended period of time. It does look as if his performance stabilized in the last few weeks of the season, at the level of his overall minor league statistics. That's not bad at all, but I think he has to prove out over a longer period of time. And the spring training stats, while not worthless, are not the place to do that. These are tryouts for a lot of talent that will probably never see the light of a major league day. We do need to tamp down the excitement, but there are some good signs.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 13, 2016 19:52:04 GMT -5
Exactly what excitement needs to be tamped down ? I seriously doubt if anyone over 12 thinks he'll OPS 1.430 for the season.
The real question is whether or not he's a better option at 3rd base than Pablo. The obvious is that he would have to significantly outperform him in the eyes of the team evaluaters. Spring stats aren't going to be the determinant. On the other hand, Pablo has had a year leash, I doubt if he'll get a very long leash (into the season) the second time around. Fool me once...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 13, 2016 22:35:53 GMT -5
Travis Shaw has started six games for the Red Sox during spring training, five of them at third base. All but five of the 29 innings he has played defensively have come at third.
That is partly because the coaching staff saw plenty of Shaw at first base last season and has confidence in his skills there. But it’s also increasingly clear the Sox are developing Shaw as a viable alternative to replace Pablo Sandoval at third base should that become necessary. . . . If Shaw can get a spot, it would probably be third base. Sandoval is 2 for 16 in seven games and has not played well defensively after reporting in what appeared to be poor condition. Ramirez is 5 of 15 in six games and has put in earnest effort to learn first base, even if the results have not always been smooth.
Shaw has worked hard at third base and shown he can handle the position. He started five games there last season after making 102 starts at third in the minors.
“He’s been solid,” Farrell said. “He’s athletic. He’s smooth over there.” www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/03/13/travis-shaw-making-difficult-for-red-sox-not-start-him/Q6GcunBsJ5dc1iLVxGZBiL/story.html?event=event25"increasingly clear" to youknow, those that watch.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 13, 2016 23:39:18 GMT -5
Yeah, I'd tend to agree with phil on this. They'll let Sandoval start it out, but the pressure is on. A key point is that Shaw's been hitting since Dombrowski showed up, and Sandoval hasn't. That has to count for something. But while I know there's a lot of enthusiasm for Shaw, it's likely Sandoval gets at least a few weeks, maybe a month to prove out. That may twist everyone out of shape if the guy has nothing left, but patience. It's a long season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 13, 2016 23:46:31 GMT -5
I haven't been able (ok, I can't be bothered) to watch any spring training games, but I notice no one is really talking about Hanley's defense at first. I'm guessing this is a good thing. He may forget the glove once in a while, but it looks like he brought his bat. And yes, he looks passable over there. The movement and reactions are probably what he'll have to keep working on. But he was a shortstop so it's not as if he's never seen or reacted to hard hit ground balls. His swing also looks much smoother than last year's late-season model, so I'm assuming some of the noise was from that shoulder injury. Hopefully that's mended. If so, he likely has the chops to carry the position. Add: Exactly what excitement needs to be tamped down ? I seriously doubt if anyone over 12 thinks he'll OPS 1.430 for the season... Stuff like this: It's not as if he has to OPS 1.400, 1.300, ... 1.000 or even .900. Last year's show was quite good enough. It's tough because we've seen what he can do when he's hot: a decent impression of a middle-of-the-order bat. I'm certain we're not the only ones who noticed. Sandoval is on the clock...
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Post by telson13 on Mar 14, 2016 0:59:37 GMT -5
The elephant in the room: If Sandoval has what is essentially an unmoveable contract, but the Sox have Holt and guys with options in AAA, does that mean Panda rides the pine for the rest of this year should Shaw take his job? Dombrowski deep-sixed Damian Easley when his offense fell off a cliff, but this is 4 years, $76M, not 2/10 or whatever it was back then. I have to think that if Panda continues to look substandard with both the bat and glove (nice RH 2b the other day, but he's not looked like his timing is very good and he's not making much contact, which is bad news for an aggressive hitter), that the team is going to eat salary by benching him. They'd probably end up giving him occasional AB as a PH/DH/1b/3b, hand Shaw his job (hoping for an .800 OPS and average defense doesn't seem grossly unreasonable), and maybe hope he gets it together for next ST, when Hanley is probably DHing. Then again, he'll be battling Last Name Travis for the roster spot, because he's starting to look as viable as a low-cost starter as First Name Travis. Can a year on the bench be good for Panda?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 14, 2016 6:39:31 GMT -5
I haven't been able (ok, I can't be bothered) to watch any spring training games, but I notice no one is really talking about Hanley's defense at first. I'm guessing this is a good thing. He may forget the glove once in a while, but it looks like he brought his bat. And yes, he looks passable over there. The movement and reactions are probably what he'll have to keep working on. But he was a shortstop so it's not as if he's never seen or reacted to hard hit ground balls. His swing also looks much smoother than last year's late-season model, so I'm assuming some of the noise was from that shoulder injury. Hopefully that's mended. If so, he likely has the chops to carry the position. Add: Exactly what excitement needs to be tamped down ? I seriously doubt if anyone over 12 thinks he'll OPS 1.430 for the season... Stuff like this: It's not as if he has to OPS 1.400, 1.300, ... 1.000 or even .900. Last year's show was quite good enough. It's tough because we've seen what he can do when he's hot: a decent impression of a middle-of-the-order bat. I'm certain we're not the only ones who noticed. Sandoval is on the clock... First of all, that HR was off a pitch that was supposed to be Shaw's weakness. Yeah it wasn't a good pitcher, but it's still good to see him hitting pitches that was supposed to be his Achilles's heel, and hit it probably 420 feet. Who else on the team has that kind of power other than Papi? Second of all, Pablo is so terrible against lefties, I'd hardly consider that some kind of unreasonable excitement. He had an .034 ISO last year. Would anyone at all bet that Pablo will hit lefties better than Shaw this year?
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Post by notguilty on Mar 14, 2016 7:47:01 GMT -5
I understand the need to cool expectations, but the flip side of that is to be too quickly dismissive. I haven't seen anybody saying that Shaw is going to be a HoF at 3B. Just that on the basis of what he did last year and this spring training, if he keeps most of this up, Shaw is the probably the best option you've got at third.
It is a bit silly, I think, to essentially tell people that what they are seeing with their eyes isn't really what they're seeing. And what's the cut-off for acceptable sample size? This isn't a JBJ hot spring training situation; He's been doing this since the second half of last year. At a minimum, you ride the hot hand. If he keeps this up.
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