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mobaz
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Posts: 3,014
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Post by mobaz on Mar 14, 2016 8:51:28 GMT -5
... But while I know there's a lot of enthusiasm for Shaw, it's likely Sandoval gets at least a few weeks, maybe a month to prove out. That may twist everyone out of shape if the guy has nothing left, but patience. It's a long season. Enjoying the double entendres, intentional or not. This could get as bad as Bryce Brentz shooting himself jokes.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2016 12:31:19 GMT -5
First of all, that HR was off a pitch that was supposed to be Shaw's weakness. Yeah it wasn't a good pitcher, but it's still good to see him hitting pitches that was supposed to be his Achilles's heel, and hit it probably 420 feet. Like most left-handed hitters, Shaw has no problem with pitches down and in, which is the traditional lefty power sweet spot. The pitch that he hit was down and in, which is not his weakness. Instead, he has issues with pitches on the inner half of the plate above the knees, as this slugging percentage per pitch heatmap and this runs above average per pitch heatmap illustrate. I understand the need to cool expectations, but the flip side of that is to be too quickly dismissive. I haven't seen anybody saying that Shaw is going to be a HoF at 3B. Just that on the basis of what he did last year and this spring training, if he keeps most of this up, Shaw is the probably the best option you've got at third. It is a bit silly, I think, to essentially tell people that what they are seeing with their eyes isn't really what they're seeing. And what's the cut-off for acceptable sample size? This isn't a JBJ hot spring training situation; He's been doing this since the second half of last year. At a minimum, you ride the hot hand. If he keeps this up. There are reasons to think that he won't keep this up. Remember, he has all of 23 spring training plate appearances, and there is extensive research showing that spring training performance is generally not predictive of regular season performance. His success in 248 PAs last year is certainly encouraging and informs his 2016 projection, but he also has ~2,000 minor league PAs and countless scouting reports which suggest that he was playing above his head last year. Those matter, too.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 14, 2016 13:50:49 GMT -5
What people are seeing with their eyes in spring training isn't what they'll be seeing in the regular season. Just ask Bradley.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 14, 2016 14:37:07 GMT -5
What people are seeing with their eyes in spring training isn't what they'll be seeing in the regular season. Just ask Bradley. As in, nobody hits .550, or he's not a good MLB player? Cause (yes SSS) the MLB results we have so far are pretty good too. At the very least, he's a great LHH to keep around for semi-platooning with Ramirez and Young, or spelling an injured Sandoval or Hanley. It's too bad that all our 3B right now are LHH. I wonder how much this development changes the David Murphy picture. Between Bradley, Holt, and maybe Shaw, that's potentially three LHH OF ahead of him on the depth chart.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2016 15:35:37 GMT -5
Has Shaw played at all in the OF this spring training? I know they had mentioned the idea of him doing so, but I don't think he's gotten any reps there, and if that's the case, Holt might be ahead of him in terms of outfield playing time.
I'm not saying that Shaw isn't an MLB player or that he shouldn't get playing time. My point is just that it's not yet clear whether he's a starting-caliber player (unless his defense at 3B is good enough to be averagish, I still lean towards "no") and that eight spring training games should not change the picture that much.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 14, 2016 16:16:16 GMT -5
Has Shaw played at all in the OF this spring training? I know they had mentioned the idea of him doing so, but I don't think he's gotten any reps there, and if that's the case, Holt might be ahead of him in terms of outfield playing time. I'm not saying that Shaw isn't an MLB player or that he shouldn't get playing time. My point is just that it's not yet clear whether he's a starting-caliber player (unless his defense at 3B is good enough to be averagish, I still lean towards "no") and that eight spring training games should not change the picture that much. Shaw in LF is coming soon. www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2016/03/travis_shaw_will_start_seeing_time_in_lf_before_too_longShaw changed the picture last year, not in spring training. The only thing he can do in spring training is continue to look like he did last season, which he is.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2016 16:39:58 GMT -5
If you thought Shaw would be better than Sandoval back in the offseason, more power to you. But if you didn't (and I'd suspect most folks didn't), my point is just that eight games of spring training shouldn't do much to change your mind.
Shaw in LF is nice to hear. I think there's a decent chance that he's at least as good as David Murphy there, which might prove useful if Castillo continues to struggle to hit RHP.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Mar 14, 2016 18:04:50 GMT -5
Shaw could easily breaking a lot of hearts at this rate.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 14, 2016 18:24:43 GMT -5
First of all, that HR was off a pitch that was supposed to be Shaw's weakness. Yeah it wasn't a good pitcher, but it's still good to see him hitting pitches that was supposed to be his Achilles's heel, and hit it probably 420 feet. Like most left-handed hitters, Shaw has no problem with pitches down and in, which is the traditional lefty power sweet spot. The pitch that he hit was down and in, which is not his weakness. Instead, he has issues with pitches on the inner half of the plate above the knees, as this slugging percentage per pitch heatmap and this runs above average per pitch heatmap illustrate. I understand the need to cool expectations, but the flip side of that is to be too quickly dismissive. I haven't seen anybody saying that Shaw is going to be a HoF at 3B. Just that on the basis of what he did last year and this spring training, if he keeps most of this up, Shaw is the probably the best option you've got at third. It is a bit silly, I think, to essentially tell people that what they are seeing with their eyes isn't really what they're seeing. And what's the cut-off for acceptable sample size? This isn't a JBJ hot spring training situation; He's been doing this since the second half of last year. At a minimum, you ride the hot hand. If he keeps this up. There are reasons to think that he won't keep this up. Remember, he has all of 23 spring training plate appearances, and there is extensive research showing that spring training performance is generally not predictive of regular season performance. His success in 248 PAs last year is certainly encouraging and informs his 2016 projection, but he also has ~2,000 minor league PAs and countless scouting reports which suggest that he was playing above his head last year. Those matter, too. Actually, both of those indicate that his worst areas are down-and-in (the traditional lefty power zone) and up-and-away. He also has a weak spot up-and-in, but not as pronounced as down-and-in. That's unless I'm somehow misinterpreting the plots, but I don't think so.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 14, 2016 18:41:56 GMT -5
If you thought Shaw would be better than Sandoval back in the offseason, more power to you. But if you didn't (and I'd suspect most folks didn't), my point is just that eight games of spring training shouldn't do much to change your mind. Shaw in LF is nice to hear. I think there's a decent chance that he's at least as good as David Murphy there, which might prove useful if Castillo continues to struggle to hit RHP. I agree that ST shouldn't be a make-or-break in terms of assessing Shaw. I do think, however, that looking past the stats and seeing some consistency (and continuation of last year's approach) looks awfully encouraging. In particular, his continued display of power and up-the-middle style off hitting. I'm beginning to put some credence into the idea that his cerebral approach to hitting will, with the massive amount of available data, makes him a (substantially?) better MLB than MiLB hitter. At some point, there's enough evidence to buy into him being an overachiever, and I think that's what the ST scouting (not just stats) has people doing. Plus, they *really* need another dangerous LH bat, which probably inflates peoples' hopes.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2016 18:49:35 GMT -5
Like most left-handed hitters, Shaw has no problem with pitches down and in, which is the traditional lefty power sweet spot. The pitch that he hit was down and in, which is not his weakness. Instead, he has issues with pitches on the inner half of the plate above the knees, as this slugging percentage per pitch heatmap and this runs above average per pitch heatmap illustrate. There are reasons to think that he won't keep this up. Remember, he has all of 23 spring training plate appearances, and there is extensive research showing that spring training performance is generally not predictive of regular season performance. His success in 248 PAs last year is certainly encouraging and informs his 2016 projection, but he also has ~2,000 minor league PAs and countless scouting reports which suggest that he was playing above his head last year. Those matter, too. Actually, both of those indicate that his worst areas are down-and-in (the traditional lefty power zone) and up-and-away. He also has a weak spot up-and-in, but not as pronounced as down-and-in. That's unless I'm somehow misinterpreting the plots, but I don't think so. You're reading it backwards, I think. Both heatmaps are from the POV of the catcher/hitter, not the POV of the pitcher/typical broadcast angle.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 14, 2016 20:12:31 GMT -5
Actually, both of those indicate that his worst areas are down-and-in (the traditional lefty power zone) and up-and-away. He also has a weak spot up-and-in, but not as pronounced as down-and-in. That's unless I'm somehow misinterpreting the plots, but I don't think so. You're reading it backwards, I think. Both heatmaps are from the POV of the catcher/hitter, not the POV of the pitcher/typical broadcast angle. Ah, gotcha, then yeah, that would make it up-in and low-away. Thanks for the clarification, I was absolutely looking P pov. Makes sense given his middling bat speed and kinda long swing. Also makes me wonder if he might benefit from dropping the weight of his bats a little bit. Since KE=1/2mv^2, a small increase in bat speed should more than account for the drop in power from a lighter bat. Even if it made for a little less power, Shaw's exit velocity (by AFL Trackman at least) is outstanding. And judging by his raw power, he's not one to get cheated anyway. Might be even a little loss in power would be acceptable for an improved BA/OBP from better plate coverage. The ability to get around on/foul off pitches on the hands, and punch opposite fielders on the outside stuff could make him even more valuable as a hitter, especially if it only marginally affects his XBH totals. I'm tempted to look for studies on bat weight vs hitting zone velocity and exit velocity, if there are any.
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Post by jmei on Mar 14, 2016 20:28:34 GMT -5
I do think, however, that looking past the stats and seeing some consistency (and continuation of last year's approach) looks awfully encouraging. In particular, his continued display of power and up-the-middle style off hitting. I'm beginning to put some credence into the idea that his cerebral approach to hitting will, with the massive amount of available data, makes him a (substantially?) better MLB than MiLB hitter. At some point, there's enough evidence to buy into him being an overachiever, and I think that's what the ST scouting (not just stats) has people doing. A strong spring training performance doesn't really go hand-in-hand with that narrative, though. I mean, it's not like he's pouring over tons of video to prepare for Grapefruit League competition, right? I agree that at some point, the sample size gets large enough that you put more weight on the MLB production than the MiLB track record. But eight games of spring training doesn't factor into that much, if at all. As Alex Speier illustrates in today's 108 Stitches, the correlation between spring training breakouts and regular season breakouts is very weak. It's also not clear that Shaw actually scouts better, rather than just performing better. He's not coming into camp with new swing mechanics or BSOHL buzz, nor do I really remember reading those stories last season or during the offseason. Is he doing something tangibly differently now than he has been the last couple years? Remember, this kind of hot stretch has happened before. There was considerable buzz after his great AFL season (including the encouraging exit velocity data) and hot start in AA two years ago. That's good, because he's demonstrated the ability to hit at this level before. But it's also bad, because he hasn't been able to sustain it-- after that encouraging 2013-14 offseason/first half, he then promptly hit .256/.319/.395 in 668 AAA PAs. We'll see how it turns out this time.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 14, 2016 20:51:21 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the basic question isn't how good or bad Shaw will be, the basic question is who is the best answer to the starting 3B job in 2016. Personally, I don't have a lot of confidence in Pablo at this point (nor did I have it at the end of last season) that he will be anything but a negative WAR player again. I see no reason for thinking he will improve. He's really abysmal in the field and it's not just yips.
I'm also fairly confident that Shaw will be a positive WAR player at minimum.
ADD: jmei and company can slice and dice the 2015 stats anyway they want but the bottom line is that Shaw outperformed Panda significantly in every phase of the game and continues to do so this spring. I'll take actual performance over computer baseball.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 14, 2016 22:07:40 GMT -5
LOL tweet:
What The F*** Facts @whattheffacts 2h2 hours ago Panda researchers have to wear panda costumes at work.
Are we all wearing our panda costumes ?
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Post by telson13 on Mar 15, 2016 9:27:41 GMT -5
I do think, however, that looking past the stats and seeing some consistency (and continuation of last year's approach) looks awfully encouraging. In particular, his continued display of power and up-the-middle style off hitting. I'm beginning to put some credence into the idea that his cerebral approach to hitting will, with the massive amount of available data, makes him a (substantially?) better MLB than MiLB hitter. At some point, there's enough evidence to buy into him being an overachiever, and I think that's what the ST scouting (not just stats) has people doing. A strong spring training performance doesn't really go hand-in-hand with that narrative, though. I mean, it's not like he's pouring over tons of video to prepare for Grapefruit League competition, right? I agree that at some point, the sample size gets large enough that you put more weight on the MLB production than the MiLB track record. But eight games of spring training doesn't factor into that much, if at all. As Alex Speier illustrates in today's 108 Stitches, the correlation between spring training breakouts and regular season breakouts is very weak. It's also not clear that Shaw actually scouts better, rather than just performing better. He's not coming into camp with new swing mechanics or BSOHL buzz, nor do I really remember reading those stories last season or during the offseason. Is he doing something tangibly differently now than he has been the last couple years? Remember, this kind of hot stretch has happened before. There was considerable buzz after his great AFL season (including the encouraging exit velocity data) and hot start in AA two years ago. That's good, because he's demonstrated the ability to hit at this level before. But it's also bad, because he hasn't been able to sustain it-- after that encouraging 2013-14 offseason/first half, he then promptly hit .256/.319/.395 in 668 AAA PAs. We'll see how it turns out this time. Oh, for the most part I'm not disputing you. What ST says for me is that it's less likely that his MLB debut was a fluke. I'm not saying I think he's suddenly going to "break out" and be great, which was the point of the Speier article (and a .350 BA isn't the most telling criterion anyway), just that I'm more comfortable believing in him as a serviceable, even possibly solid, MLB starter. Like you said earlier, this is what I, and several others, was hoping/predicting last fall, so it's nice to see him looking solid still. Absolutely, a handful of ST games (and ST in general) probably means very little (edit:zero) statistically, or predictively. But if he were late, flailing, had poor coverage, a lot of lucky dribblers, etc. I'd be more concerned that his year in 2015 was a confluence of promotion and hot-streak luck rather than true talent (edit: this is what I meant by scouting- good plate coverage, timing, and consistenthard contact). But you're right, ST means very little beyond whether guys stayed in shape/worked over the winter or sat around eating Cheesey Poofs. Once everyone's up to speed, there's no AA rule 5 and non-roster invite pitching to feast on, and the season is for real, spring hot streaks evaporate. The field levels, and elevates, because the talent and conditioning disparities get much smaller and the average much better. As for the "info availability" theory on Shaw, again I'm speaking more about last year; I don't think is has anything to do with his ST numbers. Just that, again, I'm seeing some encouraging signs that his 2015 summer may just be indicative of his true talent, especially given his improved ability to avoid long cold streaks. But, of course, there's always the SSS caveat.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 15, 2016 9:37:12 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the basic question isn't how good or bad Shaw will be, the basic question is who is the best answer to the starting 3B job in 2016. Personally, I don't have a lot of confidence in Pablo at this point (nor did I have it at the end of last season) that he will be anything but a negative WAR player again. I see no reason for thinking he will improve. He's really abysmal in the field and it's not just yips. I'm also fairly confident that Shaw will be a positive WAR player at minimum. ADD: jmei and company can slice and dice the 2015 stats anyway they want but the bottom line is that Shaw outperformed Panda significantly in every phase of the game and continues to do so this spring. I'll take actual performance over computer baseball. At this point, I'm buying into the idea that he didn't work nearly as hard in the offseason as he needed to. His defense has been between plain bad and atrocious. So while I reserved judgement before, it's become clear to me now that his defense at third is absolutely unacceptable, even if he were to hit like his halcyon year. He may or may not improve to adequacy, but he'd better realize Shaw is coming for his job.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 15, 2016 11:51:48 GMT -5
I went to the game yesterday and was not impressed by Pablo's fielding, however he did hit a homer.
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Post by okin15 on Mar 15, 2016 12:14:23 GMT -5
If you thought Shaw would be better than Sandoval back in the offseason, more power to you. But if you didn't (and I'd suspect most folks didn't), my point is just that eight games of spring training shouldn't do much to change your mind. Shaw in LF is nice to hear. I think there's a decent chance that he's at least as good as David Murphy there, which might prove useful if Castillo continues to struggle to hit RHP. I don't think Shaw is better than Sandoval, but I do agree with JimEd that this ST helps us believe his above replacement results last summer. More importantly, I think he's good enough to get frequent at-bats at three positions this year (don't forget that Hanley and Pablo were each below replacement last year). That could lead to a change in roll if someone struggles, or more likely an opportunity if there's an injury. And if we're lucky, it could lead to an in-house solution to the 2017 DH (at least half a platoon solution). Note, I don't feel that any of this disagrees materialy with your statement above JMei. I'm just elaborating.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 15, 2016 14:27:42 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 10m10 minutes ago
Farrell: Hanley 'doing a very good job at first base.' Praised his work ethic, says he's ahead at 1B of where he was in LF to start '15
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,880
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Post by atzar on Mar 15, 2016 14:46:38 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier 10m10 minutes ago Farrell: Hanley 'doing a very good job at first base.' Praised his work ethic, says he's ahead at 1B of where he was in LF to start '15 To be fair, I'm ahead of where Hanley was in LF at the start of last year. But I'll take any bit of good news. We need him to bounce back this year.
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Post by dirtywater43 on Mar 15, 2016 18:03:09 GMT -5
Alex Speier also tweeted that Hanley's agent was also in camp.
The morons in Felger and Mazz already have started this means Hanley is going to be traded soon.
Does anyone see it that way
Note- White Sox DH Adam Larouche retired today. The white sox were only looking at players with 3 year deals this winter which is exactly how many guaranteed years Hanley has left on his deal.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 15, 2016 18:31:08 GMT -5
Alex Speier also tweeted that Hanley's agent was also in camp. The morons in Felger and Mazz already have started this means Hanley is going to be traded soon. Does anyone see it that way Note- White Sox DH Adam Larouche retired today. The white sox were only looking at players with 3 year deals this winter which is exactly how many guaranteed years Hanley has left on his deal. First mistake: Listening to Felger & Maz 2nd mistake: Listening to Felger & Maz
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 16, 2016 7:06:41 GMT -5
Alex Speier also tweeted that Hanley's agent was also in camp. The morons in Felger and Mazz already have started this means Hanley is going to be traded soon. Does anyone see it that way Note- White Sox DH Adam Larouche retired today. The white sox were only looking at players with 3 year deals this winter which is exactly how many guaranteed years Hanley has left on his deal. Doesn't make much sense to me. Who's the first baseman if they trade him?
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Post by notguilty on Mar 16, 2016 8:03:12 GMT -5
Maybe they're working on an extension...
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