SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
4/11-4/13 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 13, 2016 16:06:25 GMT -5
Hmmm, interesting they brought up Rutledge instead of Marrero. Presumably because they don't want to bring Marrero up to ride the pine 7 days/week, I'm guessing they would have gone for Marrero if it were a starter that got injured. Thing about bringing up Rutledge, though, is that he could be a goner once Sandoval returns - he's out of options and Steamer projects him for +0.8 WAR/600 so he's got a decent chance to be claimed.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 16:16:19 GMT -5
Platoon splits are entirely different from individual batter versus individual pitcher splits. The former is very real in terms of predicting future performance, while the latter is almost always small-sample noise. In fact, I'm happy Farrell isn't putting undue weight on Shaw's 2015 observed platoon split in the majors (which consisted of all of 82 PAs vs. LHP) and pinch-hitting for him with Young. I disagree. I think to pinch hit for Shaw is exactly the wrong thing to do at this point in the season. If Shaw is going to be a regular he must hit reasonably against both LH and RH pitchers and so far in his brief career, and in admittedly SSS, he has. Why not see how he does for a while before limiting him this way? This is not a good way to build a player's confidence and skills. It also just doesn't make sense to be pinch hitting in the 6th inning at this point in the season. Exactly.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 13, 2016 16:16:35 GMT -5
The other thing about bringing up Rutledge is that (a) he is a RHH and (b) like Brock Holt, he is a natural middle infielder who can play 3B in a pinch but isn't good there.
Given the platoon issue, I might have prefer to call up Marco Hernandez.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 16:19:39 GMT -5
The other thing about bringing up Rutledge is that (a) he is a RHH and (b) like Brock Holt, he is a natural middle infielder who can play 3B in a pinch but isn't good there. Given the platoon issue, I might have prefer to call up Marco Hernandez. Hernandez would have been my pick. Guess they just want him getting regular AB in minors.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2016 16:21:29 GMT -5
Platoon splits are entirely different from individual batter versus individual pitcher splits. The former is very real in terms of predicting future performance, while the latter is almost always small-sample noise. In fact, I'm happy Farrell isn't putting undue weight on Shaw's 2015 observed platoon split in the majors (which consisted of all of 82 PAs vs. LHP) and pinch-hitting for him with Young. I disagree. I think to pinch hit for Shaw is exactly the wrong thing to do at this point in the season. If Shaw is going to be a regular he must hit reasonably against both LH and RH pitchers and so far in his brief career, and in admittedly SSS, he has. Why not see how he does for a while before limiting him this way? This is not a good way to build a player's confidence and skills. It also just doesn't make sense to be pinch hitting in the 6th inning at this point in the season. John Farrell is more concerned about winning games than building Shaw's confidence and skills, and any good statistical analyst will tell you that Young is likely to be a better hitter versus LHP than Shaw (even with the pinch-hit penalty, though that makes it closer).
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2016 16:24:14 GMT -5
I think this is a pretty bald-faced phantom DL stint for Sandoval where his marching orders are to get back in reasonable shape. If he works at it, I suspect he'll have a shot at winning his job back. If he doesn't, I suspect he'll be released.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 16:33:31 GMT -5
I disagree. I think to pinch hit for Shaw is exactly the wrong thing to do at this point in the season. If Shaw is going to be a regular he must hit reasonably against both LH and RH pitchers and so far in his brief career, and in admittedly SSS, he has. Why not see how he does for a while before limiting him this way? This is not a good way to build a player's confidence and skills. It also just doesn't make sense to be pinch hitting in the 6th inning at this point in the season. John Farrell is more concerned about winning games than building Shaw's confidence and skills, and any good statistical analyst will tell you that Young is likely to be a better hitter versus LHP than Shaw (even with the pinch-hit penalty, though that makes it closer). So winning one game is more important then the development of our starter? That makes no sense. Also my biggest issue is how early the pinch hits are coming. In the 6th you can't just say Young has better chance, you have to look at the fact that Young will see another AB against a right hander later in game. Add in that Shaw is currently playing better D then Holt at third and it makes little sense to me. So far Shaw has hit lefties well, until that stops this Chris Young stuff is crazy in my opinion. Let's give Shaw a chance. This crap is why I didn't like the Chris Young signing.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 16:39:32 GMT -5
John Farrell is more concerned about winning games than building Shaw's confidence and skills, and any good statistical analyst will tell you that Young is likely to be a better hitter versus LHP than Shaw (even with the pinch-hit penalty, though that makes it closer). So winning one game is more important then the development of our starter? That makes no sense. Also my biggest issue is how early the pinch hits are coming. In the 6th you can't just say Young has better chance, you have to look at the fact that Young will see another AB against a right hander later in game. Add in that Shaw is currently playing better D then Holt at third and it makes little sense to me. So far Shaw has hit lefties well, until that stops this Chris Young stuff is crazy in my opinion. Let's give Shaw a chance. This crap is why I didn't like the Chris Young signing. It's not one or the other. Shaw will continue to develop regardless of whether Young pinch hits for him late in games or not. I'm just glad he's starting and they didn't stick with Sandoval for too long.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 16:46:26 GMT -5
So winning one game is more important then the development of our starter? That makes no sense. Also my biggest issue is how early the pinch hits are coming. In the 6th you can't just say Young has better chance, you have to look at the fact that Young will see another AB against a right hander later in game. Add in that Shaw is currently playing better D then Holt at third and it makes little sense to me. So far Shaw has hit lefties well, until that stops this Chris Young stuff is crazy in my opinion. Let's give Shaw a chance. This crap is why I didn't like the Chris Young signing. It's not one or the other. Shaw will continue to develop regardless of whether Young pinch hits for him late in games or not. I'm just glad he's starting and they didn't stick with Sandoval for too long. So you don't think pulling a guy in 6th inning 2-3 times a week could impact his development? Come on. The guy currently ranks 4th in AL in bwar and is playing better D at third then anyone could have dreamed possible. No reason to be pinch hitting for him in 6th inning of games.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2016 16:48:34 GMT -5
John Farrell is more concerned about winning games than building Shaw's confidence and skills, and any good statistical analyst will tell you that Young is likely to be a better hitter versus LHP than Shaw (even with the pinch-hit penalty, though that makes it closer). So winning one game is more important then the development of our starter? That makes no sense. Also my biggest issue is how early the pinch hits are coming. In the 6th you can't just say Young has better chance, you have to look at the fact that Young will see another AB against a right hander later in game. Add in that Shaw is currently playing better D then Holt at third and it makes little sense to me. So far Shaw has hit lefties well, until that stops this Chris Young stuff is crazy in my opinion. Let's give Shaw a chance. This crap is why I didn't like the Chris Young signing. Yes, I think the win probability added from maximizing your odds of success in high-leverage plate appearances is more valuable than a handful of extra plate appearances versus LHPs for Shaw. Especially now with Sandoval on the DL, Shaw will still get plenty of playing time against LHPs, and it's a stretch to say that getting pinch-hit for a couple times has materially hurt his confidence or his development. Refraining from using Young because maybe it might end up in his hitting versus a RHP later on is the same faulty logic that leads managers to mistakenly avoid using their closers in a tie game on the road or to avoid using their best relievers in high-leverage situations in the 5th/6th/7th innings. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that. If Young gets a hit in the sixth and puts them on top, it doesn't really matter that he might hit versus a RHP in the ninth. Plus, in theory, you had Sandoval ready to pinch-hit for Young if that situation did come up. Shaw is probably a better defender than Holt at 3B, but the gap isn't significant-- let's not pretend Shaw is a Gold Glover or anything.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 16:49:25 GMT -5
It's not one or the other. Shaw will continue to develop regardless of whether Young pinch hits for him late in games or not. I'm just glad he's starting and they didn't stick with Sandoval for too long. So you don't think pulling a guy in 6th inning 2-3 times a week could impact his development? Come on. The guy currently ranks 4th in AL in bwar and is playing better D at third then anyone could have dreamed possible. No reason to be pinch hitting for him in 6th inning of games. I don't like it and it might hurt the team, but it's not going to affect his development. He's playing every game.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 16:52:58 GMT -5
Hmmm, interesting they brought up Rutledge instead of Marrero. Presumably because they don't want to bring Marrero up to ride the pine 7 days/week, I'm guessing they would have gone for Marrero if it were a starter that got injured. Thing about bringing up Rutledge, though, is that he could be a goner once Sandoval returns - he's out of options and Steamer projects him for +0.8 WAR/600 so he's got a decent chance to be claimed. Yeah, that was the point that I didn't make but it crossed my mind. He wouldn't have to come off the 40 until Workman is ready if that is the move unless they need the spot for someone else. I probably would have played it safe with Marrero or Hernandez and kept the depth this early in the season.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2016 16:54:10 GMT -5
It's not one or the other. Shaw will continue to develop regardless of whether Young pinch hits for him late in games or not. I'm just glad he's starting and they didn't stick with Sandoval for too long. So you don't think pulling a guy in 6th inning 2-3 times a week could impact his development? Come on. The guy currently ranks 4th in AL in bwar and is playing better D at third then anyone could have dreamed possible. No reason to be pinch hitting for him in 6th inning of games. Shaw will only get pinch-hit for in situations where (a) it's the sixth inning or later, (b) the game is tied or the Red Sox are down by a couple runs, (c) the other team brings in a left-handed reliever immediately before Shaw comes up (if the lefty reliever has been in the game for longer than that, they won't bring in Young because that invites the other team putting in a righty reliever to face Young, but each pitcher has to face at least one batter). That situation has occurred three times in the first week-plus of the season, but that's an aberrational pace. I'd be surprised if it happens more than five or ten times the rest of the season. This is the kind of issue that only matters because it's the first week of the season.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 16:55:14 GMT -5
I think this is a pretty bald-faced phantom DL stint for Sandoval where his marching orders are to get back in reasonable shape. If he works at it, I suspect he'll have a shot at winning his job back. If he doesn't, I suspect he'll be released. I think you're right, and that they're probably leaning towards the latter scenario unless there is a miracle. He has not looked like a major league player at any point since spring training started.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 16:55:37 GMT -5
So you don't think pulling a guy in 6th inning 2-3 times a week could impact his development? Come on. The guy currently ranks 4th in AL in bwar and is playing better D at third then anyone could have dreamed possible. No reason to be pinch hitting for him in 6th inning of games. I don't like it and it might hurt the team, but it's not going to affect his development. He's playing every game. Yea but he only had one AB against a lefty all year. Thus they are stunting his development against lefties. He hit them well last year.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 16:57:21 GMT -5
I don't like it and it might hurt the team, but it's not going to affect his development. He's playing every game. Yea but he only had one AB against a lefty all year. Thus they are stunting his development against lefties. He hit them well last year. That's mainly because they haven't faced any LH starters yet. It's more that other teams are stunting his development against lefties.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Apr 13, 2016 16:57:36 GMT -5
I don't like it and it might hurt the team, but it's not going to affect his development. He's playing every game. Yea but he only had one AB against a lefty all year. Thus they are stunting his development against lefties. He hit them well last year. ...because they haven't faced any left-handed starters this year. As things stand, he's going to get a sizable chunk of the starts versus left-handed starting pitchers going forward, which will give him plenty of reps versus lefties. He's lost all of three PAs versus lefties all year, which is just about nothing. ADD: scooped
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 17:03:16 GMT -5
So winning one game is more important then the development of our starter? That makes no sense. Also my biggest issue is how early the pinch hits are coming. In the 6th you can't just say Young has better chance, you have to look at the fact that Young will see another AB against a right hander later in game. Add in that Shaw is currently playing better D then Holt at third and it makes little sense to me. So far Shaw has hit lefties well, until that stops this Chris Young stuff is crazy in my opinion. Let's give Shaw a chance. This crap is why I didn't like the Chris Young signing. Yes, I think the win probability added from maximizing your odds of success in high-leverage plate appearances is more valuable than a handful of extra plate appearances versus LHPs for Shaw. Especially now with Sandoval on the DL, Shaw will still get plenty of playing time against LHPs, and it's a stretch to say that getting pinch-hit for a couple times has materially hurt his confidence or his development. Refraining from using Young because maybe it might end up in his hitting versus a RHP later on is the same faulty logic that leads managers to mistakenly avoid using their closers in a tie game on the road or to avoid using their best relievers in high-leverage situations in the 5th/6th/7th innings. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that. If Young gets a hit in the sixth and puts them on top, it doesn't really matter that he might hit versus a RHP in the ninth. Plus, in theory, you had Sandoval ready to pinch-hit for Young if that situation did come up. Shaw is probably a better defender than Holt at 3B, but the gap isn't significant-- let's not pretend Shaw is a Gold Glover or anything. Based on defensive runs saved data from last two years and what I've seen so far this year, the gap between Shaw and Holt at 3B is large. Holt is below average at 3B. As to your other points it's not so clear cut. If it was teams would use closers earlier in games, but they don't.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 13, 2016 17:48:54 GMT -5
Based on defensive runs saved data from last two years and what I've seen so far this year, the gap between Shaw and Holt at 3B is large. Holt is below average at 3B. To draw conclusions from DRS/UZR data you really need a sample of at least 2000 innings or so. The last 2 years is only a 554 inning sample for Holt, and a ridiculously low 54.2 innings for Shaw. I agree that Shaw is a better defender than Holt at 3B, but I can make that argument without using bad data.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Apr 13, 2016 18:02:09 GMT -5
The Nava/Gomes platoon in LF in 2013 worked well (the Red Sox had the highest wRC+ in LF); IIRC, either one of them would hit for the other very early in a game. Now Shaw/Young is a rather unconventional platoon . . .
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 13, 2016 18:19:10 GMT -5
O's commentators opine that Kelly needs to challenge hitters more with his fastball rather than nibbling with breaking stuff to fall behind in the count.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 13, 2016 18:22:05 GMT -5
O's commentators opine that Kelly needs to challenge hitters more with his fastball rather than nibbling with breaking stuff to fall behind in the count. They said that on ESPN also. But they're all wrong.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Apr 13, 2016 18:27:05 GMT -5
Mookie makes stealing bases look easy.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Apr 13, 2016 18:27:09 GMT -5
I think this is a pretty bald-faced phantom DL stint for Sandoval where his marching orders are to get back in reasonable shape. If he works at it, I suspect he'll have a shot at winning his job back. If he doesn't, I suspect he'll be released. Agree. It would be an easier pill to swallow with Hanley doing fine at 1B and a cheap alternative at 3b in Shaw.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 13, 2016 18:29:17 GMT -5
Based on defensive runs saved data from last two years and what I've seen so far this year, the gap between Shaw and Holt at 3B is large. Holt is below average at 3B. To draw conclusions from DRS/UZR data you really need a sample of at least 2000 innings or so. The last 2 years is only a 554 inning sample for Holt, and a ridiculously low 54.2 innings for Shaw. I agree that Shaw is a better defender than Holt at 3B, but I can make that argument without using bad data. Where did you get 2000 innings from? Your saying that you need nearly 2 full years of 150 games for DRS data to not be bad data? How is data bad when it backs up what we both agree to be true and see watching the games? Sure it's a small sample size, but for 2 years in a row Shaw has a positive DRS and for 3 years in a row Holt had a negative DRS at 3B.
|
|
|