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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2016 4:52:03 GMT -5
Yes but now there are questions being raised about the wisdom of having him throw 116 pitches in his second start.
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Post by redsoxrich on Apr 22, 2016 11:00:07 GMT -5
Would it make sense to tell Owens he's going to be in the rotation for the rest of the year so long as he prepares properly, etc. Then when Kelly comes back put him in the bullpen permanently. If he breaks down, c'est la vie. The guy just doesn't have the command to be a starter. 114 pitches over 5 innings? Counting on him has really hurt this team the past 2 years.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2016 11:03:45 GMT -5
Would it make sense to tell Owens he's going to be in the rotation for the rest of the year so long as he prepares properly, etc. Then when Kelly comes back put him in the bullpen permanently. If he breaks down, c'est la vie. The guy just doesn't have the command to be a starter. 114 pitches over 5 innings? Counting on him has really hurt this team the past 2 years. And if Owens makes a bad start, everyone will be ready for more permanent changes. Everything is all or nothing around here.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Apr 22, 2016 16:45:42 GMT -5
Elias gets the call.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 22, 2016 16:54:36 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Henry Owens taking Joe Kelly’s spot in Red Sox rotation. Carl Willis said Sox identified parts in Owens delivery that could help his command”
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2016 17:00:19 GMT -5
Just to be clear: I don't think Mastrodonato is saying that Owens is taking Kelly's spot forever, just for the time being.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2016 17:31:35 GMT -5
I've never been an Owens fan because I don't think he has the control to be sussessful at the MLB level. Too many walks, and MLB hitters are not as decieved by him as AAA hitters. He does get swings and misses with that change, but until he can reduce the walks and have the control to stay off the middle of the plate I really believe he is a #5/6 starter.
I do hope I'm absolutely wrong because this team needs some wins.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 22, 2016 18:11:19 GMT -5
I've never been an Owens fan because I don't think he has the control to be sussessful at the MLB level. Too many walks, and MLB hitters are not as decieved by him as AAA hitters. He does get swings and misses with that change, but until he can reduce the walks and have the control to stay off the middle of the plate I really believe he is a #5/6 starter. I do hope I'm absolutely wrong because this team needs some wins. He was a 4/5 last year in 11 starts, so he's gotten worse since last year? Major leave hitter had a .726 OPS last year against him, so I do think they are still deceived by him. Bottom line, he's an upgrade over Kelly.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 22, 2016 18:19:36 GMT -5
It appears to me that Sox mgt has decided to audition as many pitchers as possible as fast as possible. A great opportunity for someone to step up, but if no one does, almost certainly some trades to come.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2016 18:28:43 GMT -5
I've never been an Owens fan because I don't think he has the control to be sussessful at the MLB level. Too many walks, and MLB hitters are not as decieved by him as AAA hitters. He does get swings and misses with that change, but until he can reduce the walks and have the control to stay off the middle of the plate I really believe he is a #5/6 starter. I do hope I'm absolutely wrong because this team needs some wins. He was a 4/5 last year in 11 starts, so he's gotten worse since last year? Major leave hitter had a .726 OPS last year against him, so I do think they are still deceived by him. Bottom line, he's an upgrade over Kelly. Small sample. But I'm basing this completely on the 5 times I've seen him live in AA/AAA plus what I've seen on TV in his MLB starts. This is just based on my personal obsevations.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2016 21:39:33 GMT -5
It appears to me that Sox mgt has decided to audition as many pitchers as possible as fast as possible. A great opportunity for someone to step up, but if no one does, almost certainly some trades to come. Gotta love what Wright has done so far.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 22, 2016 21:44:24 GMT -5
He was a 4/5 last year in 11 starts, so he's gotten worse since last year? Major leave hitter had a .726 OPS last year against him, so I do think they are still deceived by him. Bottom line, he's an upgrade over Kelly. Small sample. But I'm basing this completely on the 5 times I've seen him live in AA/AAA plus what I've seen on TV in his MLB starts. This is just based on my personal obsevations. I saw his 11k/8IP start on July 6 back in '14, and he was in total control. The list of (tall lefty) young pitchers with mediocre control at age 23 is pretty extensive. And for a lot of them, consistency is the major issue. Even Kershaw, Lester, and Lee were pretty bad (or just not very good) at first. Owens has incredible Sw% and low Z contact rates. He's also got good FB movement. He'll need time, but I hardly think he's limited to a swingman/BOR spot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2016 1:52:14 GMT -5
Owens is trending away from being a heavy heavy flyball guy, which is good, but I also worry about trusting guys numbers in the minors when it's largely all about the changeup when the guy doesn't have control on the fastball. ML hitters are a different breed. Would really love it if Owens panned out tho. Yeah RDLR was a big changeup guy and he seems to have developed quite the HR problem in the majors (though it's hard to say how much of that is due to park factors and bad luck). It's always nice when you put someone on ignore ansd someone quotes his best bits. The line about MLB hitters, Owens' changeup, and his FB command was what everyone said before he'd pitched an inning in MLB. Then he got called up, and had awful FB command and yet was a solid #4 starter type and was even among the MLB leaders in swing-and miss % in the zone. I went into the pitch/fx data, and discovered that his changeup had been devastating. I posted the numbers and explanied how it disproved the conventional wisdom, which we have now been so conveniently reminded of. As it so happens, "MLB hitters are a different breed" is nonsense -- they are rather better, that's all. And in fact one of the worst things any young pitcher can do is think that the approach that worked in AAA won't work in MLB and needs to be altered somehow (e.g., were Owens to believe he shoudl throw his change less often). Your approach will simply work less well, and to a reasonably predictable degree (not the same degree for every pitcher, but you can judge which guys will lose a little more or less of their effectiveness). As a matter of fact, let me suggest that bad FB command probably made Owens' chanegup more effective. Hitters can tell when a pitch is headed towards the zone much more easily than they can pick up the difference between a FB and an elite change. Almost nobody commands the changegup well but the FB poorly. They see him miss the zone consistently with his FB, then they see a pitch that looks much better -- that this one is in fact the change is the last thing they suspect, becaise guys who can't command the FB usually command the change even worse (and aren't in MLB as a a result). Of course, improved FB command will more than offset this effect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2016 2:08:57 GMT -5
Here is some heresy for the board to consider: I think for the end of the rotation, wins DO matter, or more precisely, advanced pitching stats may not matter as much as how those stats are accumulated. That is, a boom or bust 5th starter who alternates between high quality starts and really poor starts can be more valuable than a steady, but mediocre 5th starter.. For a while, Wakefield was a good example of the boom or bust 5th starter (at the end of his career, but before he was cooked). A boom or bust starter gives the team a really good chance to win some games when the pitcher is on, and when he is off, well, then you have a guy like Cuevas to shovel poop for a 4-5 innings in a lost cause. The peripherals for a boom and bust guy are going to look bad, the bust games would be ugly to watch, and it would be scary to have that guy pitch in the playoffs, but he might bring in more wins then a guy with similar or better pitching stats. The obvious downside to the boom or bust guy would be stress put on the bullpen, especially if the rest of the rotation is undependable in regards to innings pitched. But that just means you have to have a long-man, and/or the ability to shuttle guys between MLB and AAA. The upside, in addition to some great pitching performances, would be that the boom or bust guy has the chance to develop and become more consistent and competent. Oh, you have to be kidding me: I typed a long explanation for why this "heresy" is known sabermetric fact, and it disappeared when I posted it. Maybe later. But the short version is that, all things being equal, pitching inconsistency is good, and this can be demonstrated with Pythagorean data.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2016 2:28:20 GMT -5
It appears to me that Sox mgt has decided to audition as many pitchers as possible as fast as possible. A great opportunity for someone to step up, but if no one does, almost certainly some trades to come. Gotta love what Wright has done so far. Don't say that to the skeptics. They hate to love. List of MLB pitchers with a lower ERA and more IP/GS: Jordan Zimmerman Jake Arrietta Noah Syndergaard Vincent Velasquez Steven Strasburg Ian Kennedy Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale
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Post by lonborgski on Apr 23, 2016 6:36:20 GMT -5
Gotta love what Wright has done so far. Don't say that to the skeptics. They hate to love. List of MLB pitchers with a lower ERA and more IP/GS: Jordan Zimmerman Jake Arrietta Noah Syndergaard Vincent Velasquez Steven Strasburg Ian Kennedy Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale So, Wright for All Star game?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2016 12:18:19 GMT -5
Gotta love what Wright has done so far. Don't say that to the skeptics. They hate to love. List of MLB pitchers with a lower ERA and more IP/GS: Jordan Zimmerman Jake Arrietta Noah Syndergaard Vincent Velasquez Steven Strasburg Ian Kennedy Clayton Kershaw Chris Sale Actually, what I thought was a wild pitch was scored a passed ball, so Kershaw and Sale have higher ERAs. And Velasquez and Zimmerman have matched Wright for IP, but not topped him.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 23, 2016 12:38:29 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 23, 2016 12:59:59 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%? Maybe BABIP, but I highly doubt anyone treat HR/FB as skill because that really isn't something you have a ton of control over, especially at Fenway where pop flies can be HR.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 23, 2016 13:07:39 GMT -5
And if Owens makes a bad start, everyone will be ready for more permanent changes. Everything is all or nothing around here. There's a heaping does of irony in there. Thanks for sharing it.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 23, 2016 13:09:39 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%? Maybe BABIP, but I highly doubt anyone treat HR/FB as skill because that really isn't something you have a ton of control over, especially at Fenway Yankee Stadium where pop flies can be HR. FIFY
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Apr 23, 2016 13:44:55 GMT -5
My choice for the rotation going forward is:
1. Steven Wright 2. David Price 3. Rick Porcello 4. Clay Buchholz 5. Eduardo Rodriguez (Henry Owens in the meantime)
In all seriousness though, I think it should be the above 5 in some order once E-Rod is back. Joe Kelly then gets optioned to AAA as depth or moves to the BP as the long man. Then you still have Brian Johnson/Roenis Elias/Joe Kelly as depth and injury fillers.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2016 14:57:53 GMT -5
Even as a Wright fan, I've got to admit he's probably had a bit of sequencing luck (plus extra PBs not counting against his ERA). Is there any easily available metric that treats BABIP and HR as purely skill and then normalizes for LOB%? I think IFFB should not count for HR/FB% or for BABIP since pop-ups are as much of a skill as ground balls and are as good as strike outs.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 24, 2016 1:41:51 GMT -5
It appears to me that Sox mgt has decided to audition as many pitchers as possible as fast as possible. A great opportunity for someone to step up, but if no one does, almost certainly some trades to come. Gotta love what Wright has done so far. I never have been a Wright fan but I may have been wrong. It wouldn't be the first time and I hope I am this time. I like the way he is pitching.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 24, 2016 1:46:41 GMT -5
My choice for the rotation going forward is: 1. Steven Wright 2. David Price 3. Rick Porcello 4. Clay Buchholz 5. Eduardo Rodriguez (Henry Owens in the meantime) In all seriousness though, I think it should be the above 5 in some order once E-Rod is back. Joe Kelly then gets optioned to AAA as depth or moves to the BP as the long man. Then you still have Brian Johnson/Roenis Elias/Joe Kelly as depth and injury fillers. The Sox need pitchers and if Owens doesn't do well, Johnson will be next. If he doesn't do well, they will make a trade. I think it is reasonable to assume that Buchholz will be replaced in the rotation at some point during the season either because he suffers an injury or because of ineffectiveness.
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