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2016 Red Sox Rotation Discussion
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Post by ray88h66 on May 1, 2016 11:35:54 GMT -5
I could be wrong but don't think that means much. I'd be fine with him taking free agency over going down.I think the Sox pay him 14 plus no matter how he pitches, but he's done here after this year. That's just not true. Sorry you hate him so much, but he's not going anywhere and his option will be picked up because of how much pitching costs. Some team would give him way more than 1/$13 million if he were a free agent. A lot of people were ready to dump Porcello last year too. Thanks for correcting me, I did ask the question. I don't hate anyone, thought he'd be a free agent if sent down.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2016 11:40:47 GMT -5
That's just not true. Sorry you hate him so much, but he's not going anywhere and his option will be picked up because of how much pitching costs. Some team would give him way more than 1/$13 million if he were a free agent. A lot of people were ready to dump Porcello last year too. Thanks for correcting me, I did ask the question. I don't hate anyone, thought he'd be a free agent if sent down. That's not what I meant. They aren't going to try to send him down and they are going to pick up his option next year. He could be traded, but he has a lot more value than people think. Ian Kennedy signed for 5/70.
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Post by ray88h66 on May 1, 2016 11:46:33 GMT -5
Thanks for correcting me, I did ask the question. I don't hate anyone, thought he'd be a free agent if sent down. That's not what I meant. They aren't going to try to send him down and they are going to pick up his option next year. He could be traded, but he has a lot more value than people think. Ian Kennedy signed for 5/70. The post I responded to was about sending him down.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2016 11:48:19 GMT -5
That's not what I meant. They aren't going to try to send him down and they are going to pick up his option next year. He could be traded, but he has a lot more value than people think. Ian Kennedy signed for 5/70. The post I responded to was about sending him down. And I responded to "but he's done here after this year." He's not.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 2, 2016 10:26:40 GMT -5
I could be wrong but don't think that means much. I'd be fine with him taking free agency over going down.I think the Sox pay him 14 plus no matter how he pitches, but he's done here after this year. That's just not true. Sorry you hate him so much, but he's not going anywhere and his option will be picked up because of how much pitching costs. Some team would give him way more than 1/$13 million if he were a free agent. A lot of people were ready to dump Porcello last year too. He is on a very short leash after Farrell's comments.
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brisox
Rookie
SoxProspects Veteran
Posts: 87
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Post by brisox on May 3, 2016 7:38:43 GMT -5
Rotation 2016 from what I have heard from folks inside the Org 1) Price - he is getting as much leash as he needs he carries himself like an Ace, he is a great guy that is already well liked and even if he isn't killing it right now he gives the team the feeling that they can win any night he pitches and that confidence is having an impact 2) Porcello- he is a red Sox for as long as Dombo is the GM/ President . I am told he is very well liked in the clubhouse and his work ethic is top notch. They feel they got a deal for him and will try to keep him around 3) Buch- Unlike Porcello people are sort of done with Buch , he comes off as flippant in losses and it infuriates the execs. He needs to show something for a game or two and they will try to flip him at the deadline, but if he keeps being up and down he will see himself sinking in the rotation 4) Wright - Wakefield believes he could be better than he was and says he wants to be the greatest knuckle ball pitcher ever and works tirelessly, he will have to fail in a big way to lose his spot or others will have to dominate. 5) Owens - He has had too many solid outings at AAA and the stuff is too good to leave him there, until ER is ready to come back he will get every chance to show what he can do. He is the guy that will push Buch out with one or two more strong outings 6) Kelly - Everyone but him seems to feel he is better in the bullpen that will have to play out in a trade at some point. But we like having the depth he provides in case of injury (ie: Clay) 7) there is a deal that is essentially done sending Garret Richards from the Angels for a slew of players JBJ was one of them, but that may have changed . If the Angels slide in June this will get done, and it will probably cost us some top prospects , but getting stronger pitching is DDs #1 ,2 and 3 priority . seems like a lot , but GR is a cost controlled stud who has already proven he can pitch in the majors. 7)
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Post by mandelbro on May 3, 2016 8:26:54 GMT -5
Rotation 2016 from what I have heard from folks inside the Org 1) Price - he is getting as much leash as he needs he carries himself like an Ace, he is a great guy that is already well liked and even if he isn't killing it right now he gives the team the feeling that they can win any night he pitches and that confidence is having an impact 2) Porcello- he is a red Sox for as long as Dombo is the GM/ President . I am told he is very well liked in the clubhouse and his work ethic is top notch. They feel they got a deal for him and will try to keep him around 3) Buch- Unlike Porcello people are sort of done with Buch , he comes off as flippant in losses and it infuriates the execs. He needs to show something for a game or two and they will try to flip him at the deadline, but if he keeps being up and down he will see himself sinking in the rotation 4) Wright - Wakefield believes he could be better than he was and says he wants to be the greatest knuckle ball pitcher ever and works tirelessly, he will have to fail in a big way to lose his spot or others will have to dominate. 5) Owens - He has had too many solid outings at AAA and the stuff is too good to leave him there, until ER is ready to come back he will get every chance to show what he can do. He is the guy that will push Buch out with one or two more strong outings 6) Kelly - Everyone but him seems to feel he is better in the bullpen that will have to play out in a trade at some point. But we like having the depth he provides in case of injury (ie: Clay) 7) there is a deal that is essentially done sending Garret Richards from the Angels for a slew of players JBJ was one of them, but that may have changed . If the Angels slide in June this will get done, and it will probably cost us some top prospects , but getting stronger pitching is DDs #1 ,2 and 3 priority . seems like a lot , but GR is a cost controlled stud who has already proven he can pitch in the majors. 7) It depends what prospects we're talking about, but Richards would be an interesting fit for Fenway on paper. Career ground ball rate of 52%, career HR/FB of 9.7%.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 3, 2016 9:26:53 GMT -5
Rotation 2016 from what I have heard from folks inside the Org 1) Price - he is getting as much leash as he needs he carries himself like an Ace, he is a great guy that is already well liked and even if he isn't killing it right now he gives the team the feeling that they can win any night he pitches and that confidence is having an impact 2) Porcello- he is a red Sox for as long as Dombo is the GM/ President . I am told he is very well liked in the clubhouse and his work ethic is top notch. They feel they got a deal for him and will try to keep him around 3) Buch- Unlike Porcello people are sort of done with Buch , he comes off as flippant in losses and it infuriates the execs. He needs to show something for a game or two and they will try to flip him at the deadline, but if he keeps being up and down he will see himself sinking in the rotation 4) Wright - Wakefield believes he could be better than he was and says he wants to be the greatest knuckle ball pitcher ever and works tirelessly, he will have to fail in a big way to lose his spot or others will have to dominate. 5) Owens - He has had too many solid outings at AAA and the stuff is too good to leave him there, until ER is ready to come back he will get every chance to show what he can do. He is the guy that will push Buch out with one or two more strong outings 6) Kelly - Everyone but him seems to feel he is better in the bullpen that will have to play out in a trade at some point. But we like having the depth he provides in case of injury (ie: Clay) 7) there is a deal that is essentially done sending Garret Richards from the Angels for a slew of players JBJ was one of them, but that may have changed . If the Angels slide in June this will get done, and it will probably cost us some top prospects , but getting stronger pitching is DDs #1 ,2 and 3 priority . seems like a lot , but GR is a cost controlled stud who has already proven he can pitch in the majors. 7) It depends what prospects we're talking about, but Richards would be an interesting fit for Fenway on paper. Career ground ball rate of 52%, career HR/FB of 9.7%. I sense the prospect package will become less and less the more JBJ produces. Also, if Clay turns it around, would we "want" to flip him.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 3, 2016 9:38:56 GMT -5
A Swihart, Owens and prospect package(Ball?) should fetch a good pitcher. I'm thinking a Hamels type pitcher. Buchholz and Koji will be coming off the books. Pitcher can make some money because of that. E-Rod and Wright are cheap starters.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on May 3, 2016 9:52:51 GMT -5
After what we gave up for Kimbrel, trading for Richards would scare me. He's good, but not dominant. JBJ is already looking to be about as valuable as him.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 3, 2016 10:05:27 GMT -5
As much as I would like to see the Sox acquire a stud pitcher and get Buch out of the rotation, I think it could be a huge mistake to trade JBJ. We have seen enough glimpses of the kind of player he may well become. It would be very painful to see that kind of player in a different uniform.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2016 12:04:54 GMT -5
Richards is in his 2nd arb year, so unless he's a super 2, he has one year left. There's no way I give up JBJ for him, let alone a significant prospect package in addition for someone who isn't a clear upgrade on Buchholz.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 3, 2016 12:11:07 GMT -5
Go Angels!!
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Post by jrffam05 on May 3, 2016 12:11:43 GMT -5
Richards is in his 2nd arb year, so unless he's a super 2, he has one year left. There's no way I give up JBJ for him, let alone a significant prospect package in addition for someone who isn't a clear upgrade on Buchholz. Per cots, he is. Controlled through 2018
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2016 12:34:14 GMT -5
Buchholz ERA in April and afterwards:
Year April After 2010 2.19 2.36 2011 5.33 2.59 2012 8.69 3.82 2013 1.19 2.04 2014 6.66 5.10 2015 5.76 2.55 Median 5.55 2.57 2016 6.51 NRFI
NRFI, of course, stands for No Real Functional Idea. There is a trend (p= .12) which projects his ERA going forwards as 3.53, which is also precisely what you get if you take his median trend of being 2.98 better. The 95% confidence interval, though, is 0.00 to 8.45, hence the invention of the acronym.
You're not making a trade to upgrade a 5th starter with a 3.50-ish ERA, so it's 100% premature to be speculating here.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on May 3, 2016 12:38:35 GMT -5
I'm satistied with the arms we have.
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Post by telson13 on May 3, 2016 13:28:48 GMT -5
I'm satistied with the arms we have. Agreed. I have the sense that, in light of 2013, this rotation is plenty sufficient.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 3, 2016 14:09:07 GMT -5
I'm satistied with the arms we have. Satisfied to the point that you don't need to force a move for another arm, I agree.
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Post by deepjohn on May 3, 2016 14:18:50 GMT -5
Buchholz ERA in April and afterwards: Year April After 2010 2.19 2.36 2011 5.33 2.59 2012 8.69 3.82 2013 1.19 2.04 2014 6.66 5.10 2015 5.76 2.55 Median 5.55 2.57 2016 6.51 NRFI
NRFI, of course, stands for No Real Functional Idea. There is a trend (p= .12) which projects his ERA going forwards as 3.53, which is also precisely what you get if you take his median trend of being 2.98 better. The 95% confidence interval, though, is 0.00 to 8.45, hence the invention of the acronym. You're not making a trade to upgrade a 5th starter with a 3.50-ish ERA, so it's 100% premature to be speculating here. I did a sample, and it looks like even though his ERA was high early in the year, it seemed his kwERA/kwGbERA was still OK, or he had an outlier of a really bad game. But now, his K% and GB% are consistently lower than I've seen them since 2007. His BB% is also as high as it's been since 2007 and his O-Swing% is down. These stats are getting more "stabilized" too, with his batters faced at 124. Let's hope you're right, and it's too early in the season, and he maybe doesn't like the cold.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 3, 2016 14:26:09 GMT -5
Buchholz ERA in April and afterwards: Year April After 2010 2.19 2.36 2011 5.33 2.59 2012 8.69 3.82 2013 1.19 2.04 2014 6.66 5.10 2015 5.76 2.55 Median 5.55 2.57 2016 6.51 NRFI
NRFI, of course, stands for No Real Functional Idea. There is a trend (p= .12) which projects his ERA going forwards as 3.53, which is also precisely what you get if you take his median trend of being 2.98 better. The 95% confidence interval, though, is 0.00 to 8.45, hence the invention of the acronym. You're not making a trade to upgrade a 5th starter with a 3.50-ish ERA, so it's 100% premature to be speculating here. Just a comment on the word speculating. brisox has a known history of unnamed sources and rarely posts but they always either happen or else there are future reports that there were actually similar talks.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2016 15:06:14 GMT -5
Buchholz is going through his "learn his mechanics and release point from scratch after a lengthy injury layoff" once again. He'll find it eventually and be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball again for a few months before he gets hurt.
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Post by thursty on May 3, 2016 15:34:54 GMT -5
Don't the Angels have a pretty good CF? I mean he's no Bradley, . . .
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2016 15:39:39 GMT -5
Buchholz ERA in April and afterwards: Year April After 2010 2.19 2.36 2011 5.33 2.59 2012 8.69 3.82 2013 1.19 2.04 2014 6.66 5.10 2015 5.76 2.55 Median 5.55 2.57 2016 6.51 NRFI
NRFI, of course, stands for No Real Functional Idea. There is a trend (p= .12) which projects his ERA going forwards as 3.53, which is also precisely what you get if you take his median trend of being 2.98 better. The 95% confidence interval, though, is 0.00 to 8.45, hence the invention of the acronym. You're not making a trade to upgrade a 5th starter with a 3.50-ish ERA, so it's 100% premature to be speculating here. I did a sample, and it looks like even though his ERA was high early in the year, it seemed his kwERA/kwGbERA was still OK, or he had an outlier of a really bad game. But now, his K% and GB% are consistently lower than I've seen them since 2007. His BB% is also as high as it's been since 2007 and his O-Swing% is down. These stats are getting more "stabilized" too, with his batters faced at 124. Let's hope you're right, and it's too early in the season, and he maybe doesn't like the cold. I was going to run down all of the bad April deeper stats, but I think I'll just do 2011 versus 2016. SIERA 5.57, 5.09 xFIP- 140, 1.35 K% .117, .153 BB% .125, .105 GB% .427, .398 HR/FB .140, .114 Pull% .495, .500 Hard% .392, .278 Zone% .483, .483 Z-Swing% .626, .602 Z-Contact% .873, .841 O-Swing% .259, .267 O-Contact% .730, .725 Better than April 2011 in everything but GB%, with Pull% a near-wash. Better strike zone command and much better Hard%.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2016 15:51:11 GMT -5
Buchholz is going through his "learn his mechanics and release point from scratch after a lengthy injury layoff" once again. He'll find it eventually and be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball again for a few months before he gets hurt. Date when he started pitching much better: 2011, May 7 = start 7 2012, May 27, start 10 2014, June 25 (DL return), start 12 2015, May 15, start 8 He should turn into himself sometime this month. If he doesn't, I bet they'll do what they did in 2014, give him the phantom DL stint. But he was just OK that year after returning, so in that scenario you could see him not getting another chance if Owens or Johnson steps up in his absence. In the meantime, no matter what the F.O. thinks of him at present, if he starts pitching like an ace again as he has three of the four previous times this has happened, all will be forgotten.
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Post by jimed14 on May 3, 2016 16:13:37 GMT -5
One thing I've noticed and it shows up on PitchFX is that Buchholz' pitches are moving a lot more than they normally do. That probably explains the lack of control. He doesn't know where they're going. Bannister needs to work his magic.
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