SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/12-5/15 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
|
Post by jmei on May 13, 2016 8:02:33 GMT -5
Fortunately, quality of contact is generally more prone to random variation than strikeout and walk numbers.
|
|
|
Post by bosox81 on May 13, 2016 9:12:15 GMT -5
This game is right in line with Price's season. A ton of Ks, but also some hits and a run. Yes, as Tony Blegino wrote for FG yesterday ( www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-it-time-to-worry-about-david-price/ ), the Ks and BBs have not been the issue but rather the quality of contact (what he failed to mention was poor sequencing). Price yesterday benefited from a large strike zone and some better sequencing, but he still gave up a .429 BABIP. Unlike others, I'm not ready to announce he has returned to form - I want to see him do it against a tight strike zone first. At least the mechanics tinkering did help his velocity a bit. He hit 95 yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 13, 2016 9:14:03 GMT -5
Yeah, that was a nice play, probably the only one, but still on a groundball ... my question wasn't snarky, by the way; the games are played in the middle of the night for you. Fair enough - most games nowadays I watch 3-5 innings before going to sleep, I just wish the Sox weren't on Sunday Night Baseball all the time. I don't put much stock in these numbers, but FWIW FanGraphs had him at 7.1% soft, 71.4% medium and 21.4% hard yesterday. That's a pretty low hard%, but it's also an even lower soft%, so... well, we'll have to wait and see how it is going forward. And yes, of course there's a lot of variability in that. Of course, in my opinion the main problem was unlucky sequencing in the first place, but people didn't want to believe that when I said the same thing about Buchholz and Kelly at the beginning of last season...
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on May 13, 2016 9:50:57 GMT -5
Do balls high off the wall count in BABIP? Fenway is one of the few places where that comes into play since the wall can't be leapt.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2016 9:52:37 GMT -5
Also, I don't really understand this concept with the Red Sox that people have to "buy in" before they start paying attention. So unless they're good people won't pay attention to the team? All but admitting they're fairweather fans? They do this with the Celtics too a little bit but not the two other teams as much.
I seem to notice people talk like this around Boston especially the older generations.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on May 13, 2016 10:01:48 GMT -5
Also, I don't really understand this concept with the Red Sox that people have to "buy in" before they start paying attention. So unless they're good people won't pay attention to the team? All but admitting they're fairweather fans? They do this with the Celtics too a little bit but not the two other teams as much. I seem to notice people talk like this around Boston especially the older generations. Wait, what? You don't think fair weather fans exist? I have tons of friends who ask me all summer, so are the Sox good this year? And then when I say, "they're in the playoffs" they get excited and start watching games. Or I say "they're in first" and they suddenly want tickets. Many of them admit to being fair weather fans. It's why I chat baseball with you all, instead of with my offline friends.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 13, 2016 10:15:36 GMT -5
The whole concept of "fair weather fans" as a bad thing doesn't make any sense to me. If the team doesn't put an entertaining product on the field, I'm not watching as much. I mean, I'm not switching allegiance (and I still watch more than the normal person), but I've got other things to do than watch the Red Sox flail around every night in a losing campaign. I don't begrudge anyone else the same choice.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2016 10:28:03 GMT -5
Also, I don't really understand this concept with the Red Sox that people have to "buy in" before they start paying attention. So unless they're good people won't pay attention to the team? All but admitting they're fairweather fans? They do this with the Celtics too a little bit but not the two other teams as much. I seem to notice people talk like this around Boston especially the older generations. Wait, what? You don't think fair weather fans exist? I have tons of friends who ask me all summer, so are the Sox good this year? And then when I say, "they're in the playoffs" they get excited and start watching games. Or I say "they're in first" and they suddenly want tickets. Many of them admit to being fair weather fans. It's why I chat baseball with you all, instead of with my offline friends. I think they're more fairweather with the Sox than the Pats or even the Bruins, who people seem to follow regardless pretty closely. Maybe my situation is different but my family and even my co-workers and friends are pretty gung ho about baseball. I think it may also be different in Boston proper rather than other parts of New England, I grew up in Maine originally and I knew people who were pretty fairweather.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on May 13, 2016 10:41:15 GMT -5
Out of town, again, so I just watched the game. My own observation: huge difference in Price, aside from the velocity, was total command of his demon slider. That thing was just edging the zone on its way down and out. While I understand the value that Vazquez brings framing pitches, I really disagree that Price got a greatly expanded strike zone. His command of the black was outstanding. Look forward to more of that.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on May 13, 2016 11:08:14 GMT -5
Do balls high off the wall count in BABIP? Fenway is one of the few places where that comes into play since the wall can't be leapt. Yes. There is no park adjustment for BABIP
|
|
|
Post by cba82 on May 13, 2016 11:29:57 GMT -5
The whole concept of "fair weather fans" as a bad thing doesn't make any sense to me. If the team doesn't put an entertaining product on the field, I'm not watching as much. I mean, I'm not switching allegiance (and I still watch more than the normal person), but I've got other things to do than watch the Red Sox flail around every night in a losing campaign. I don't begrudge anyone else the same choice. I'm with you, Brian -- I would never consider myself a fair-weather fan, I bleed Red Sox red through and through, but we all do have entertainment options on a given night. So far this year the "product" has been very entertaining, and we find ourselves making the game the centerpiece of many evenings' TV choice, rather than something we click to and away from.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on May 13, 2016 11:35:05 GMT -5
The Patriots have only won once in the last ten years, Brady is suspended, first round pick was stripped and the o line is pretty bad. And theyve been one of the 4 best teams almost every single year the past decade. Name a more successful team the past decade among the 120ish major sports teams. Spurs.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on May 13, 2016 14:26:55 GMT -5
Also, I don't really understand this concept with the Red Sox that people have to "buy in" before they start paying attention. So unless they're good people won't pay attention to the team? All but admitting they're fairweather fans? They do this with the Celtics too a little bit but not the two other teams as much. I seem to notice people talk like this around Boston especially the older generations. Wait, what? You don't think fair weather fans exist? I have tons of friends who ask me all summer, so are the Sox good this year? And then when I say, "they're in the playoffs" they get excited and start watching games. Or I say "they're in first" and they suddenly want tickets. Many of them admit to being fair weather fans. It's why I chat baseball with you all, instead of with my offline friends. Even for the vast majority of people who care about the team all the time, they're more likely to watch games and (especially) buy tickets when the team is good.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 13, 2016 14:45:54 GMT -5
Schoenfield does some quick comparisons of the Red Sox start vs some all-time offenses. Spoiler alert: the Sox do well in the comparisons. Of course, blah, blah, it's stupid to compare a team six weeks into a season with full season results, like saying someone who hits 11 home runs in April is threatening Barry Bonds, but still ... fun to compare to the '27 Yankees and teams like that.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on May 13, 2016 14:49:12 GMT -5
Out of town, again, so I just watched the game. My own observation: huge difference in Price, aside from the velocity, was total command of his demon slider. That thing was just edging the zone on its way down and out. While I understand the value that Vazquez brings framing pitches, I really disagree that Price got a greatly expanded strike zone. His command of the black was outstanding. Look forward to more of that. While I agree he was living on the black all night, I think CV did a great job "presenting" some close pitches to the umpire. Seemed as every called 3rd strike the hitter was chirping, shaking his head walking back to the dugout.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,680
|
Post by gerry on May 13, 2016 14:55:25 GMT -5
Wait, what? You don't think fair weather fans exist? I have tons of friends who ask me all summer, so are the Sox good this year? And then when I say, "they're in the playoffs" they get excited and start watching games. Or I say "they're in first" and they suddenly want tickets. Many of them admit to being fair weather fans. It's why I chat baseball with you all, instead of with my offline friends. Even for the vast majority of people who care about the team all the time, they're more likely to watch games and (especially) buy tickets when the team is good. Reply by Gerry. I have noticed that the "older generation" always has the game on. Even on phone calls during the game, a play or trend is part of the conversation. Not so much the "younger generations" who have much more on their plates and less time to deal with it. One of the joys of being older is the time to follow the team of your youth. Also, following a handful of Pats games over a season requires a mere smidgeon of time and energy compared to the Sox 162G plus ST plus, hopefully, post season. If the definition of fair weather baseball fans is to watch only 20 games in a season, that is more than a dedicated Pats fan can watch. And this during the vacation months of Spring and Summer.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on May 13, 2016 15:40:43 GMT -5
Can't even compare the Sox and the Patriots because there's no comparable Patriots stretch to look at. How would you even know if there were fair weather Patriots fans? There's no stretch of games that they would've stayed away. You can be the fairest of fair weather fans of the Patriots and still not have missed a game in the past decade because every single game has mattered. Kids graduating from MA high schools this month literally can't recall a game in their lives where the Patriots were out of contention before the game started. I personally despise the NFL with a white hot passion now, and even I can't help but watch the Patriots because they're so astonishingly good at what they do.
I personally prefer baseball and the Sox by a wide margin, and I'd argue historically they've been the clear #1 team in the region, but the current run of the Patriots makes recent comparisons pretty hard.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2016 16:46:10 GMT -5
Can't even compare the Sox and the Patriots because there's no comparable Patriots stretch to look at. How would you even know if there were fair weather Patriots fans? There's no stretch of games that they would've stayed away. You can be the fairest of fair weather fans of the Patriots and still not have missed a game in the past decade because every single game has mattered. Kids graduating from MA high schools this month literally can't recall a game in their lives where the Patriots were out of contention before the game started. I personally despise the NFL with a white hot passion now, and even I can't help but watch the Patriots because they're so astonishingly good at what they do. I personally prefer baseball and the Sox by a wide margin, and I'd argue historically they've been the clear #1 team in the region, but the current run of the Patriots makes recent comparisons pretty hard. The 2008 season was 8 years ago. But I've noticed how they're talking Patriots year round now every day in the media even when there is nothing really going on like right now, talking Joe Cardona, Amendola and the trade of Bostic for a conditional 7th rounder which is basically worthless. There has been very little discussion of the NBA Draft which I thought was curious given the amount of coverage the NFL Draft got and they didn't even have a single first rounder let alone three and it was clear people weren't that interested given the ratings but they kept pushing it in the media anyway. I'll get off my soap box now but I was just wondering if anyone else noticed it too. Didn't mean to de-rail the thread - I'm going to the Sox game tonight actually but thought it was a good discussion to have with other Boston fans.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2016 17:13:57 GMT -5
During the winter I argued that when we assess Wright as a potential SP, we should toss out his emergency 2013 start, plus the start he made last year on very long rest when he got hammered, and of course all of his relief work. That almost made his numbers too rosy, so I reported them both ways ... but does anyone want to argue that those two starts ought to be included?
So, in 14 relevant starts he's averaged 6 1/3 innings with a 2.98 RA (equivalent to a 2.77 ERA if he had an average UERA), while holding opponents to .197 / .276 / .309. That puts him in the top 6 or 7 pitchers in MLB in run prevention. He can slack off quite a bit from what he's done last year and this and still be a #2.
He's had a BABIP of .234. Phil Niekro's best BABIP seasons were .247 (twice), .248. He was .270 over his career. Dickey's career best is .257. Wakefield has a .239 in 2008. Hoyt Wilhelm? Career .245.
It will be very interesting to watch and see just how good he is. Certainly, Wakefield looked even better in 1995, when he had a 5.60 ERA and 785 OPS allowed in his last 10 starts. But before that ...
17 GS, 2.06 RA, .209 / .271 / .337, .226 BABIP, Wakefield 1995 through 8/13 14 GS, 2.98 RA, .197 / .276 / .309, .234 BABIP, Wright 2014-16 as SP on regular rest
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 13, 2016 17:29:52 GMT -5
Can't even compare the Sox and the Patriots because there's no comparable Patriots stretch to look at. How would you even know if there were fair weather Patriots fans? There's no stretch of games that they would've stayed away. You can be the fairest of fair weather fans of the Patriots and still not have missed a game in the past decade because every single game has mattered. Kids graduating from MA high schools this month literally can't recall a game in their lives where the Patriots were out of contention before the game started. I personally despise the NFL with a white hot passion now, and even I can't help but watch the Patriots because they're so astonishingly good at what they do. I personally prefer baseball and the Sox by a wide margin, and I'd argue historically they've been the clear #1 team in the region, but the current run of the Patriots makes recent comparisons pretty hard. There were probably 1/10th as many Pats fans pre-Brady and Belichik as there are now. We'll see if they stick around after they're gone.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2016 17:30:57 GMT -5
Back to the game - the rain is very light here and the tarp is coming off.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on May 13, 2016 17:35:17 GMT -5
Friday night - it's the Wright time to watch some baseball!
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,416
|
Post by radiohix on May 13, 2016 17:40:37 GMT -5
Back to the game - the rain is very light here and the tarp is coming off. Enjoy bro'. For guys more educated on the matter than me, are those conditions bad for the knuckleball? Thx
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on May 13, 2016 17:50:12 GMT -5
... and the trade of Bostic for a conditional 7th rounder which is basically worthless ... Worthless? Did you forget: the team's best receiver was a 7th round pick? It's Pro Bowl cornerback was undrafted? The GOAT QB was a conditional 6th round pick?
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on May 13, 2016 18:00:02 GMT -5
Friday night - it's the Wright time to watch some baseball! I'm thrilled to see Steven pitch for the first time.
|
|
|