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How do you improve the Red Sox
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Post by telson13 on May 31, 2016 22:33:53 GMT -5
Yes, he is having a great year after all of 16 PAs. 24 hours ago, when he'd had just 12 PAs, he'd been having a terrible year. I mean, I like Hernandez, but I think it's just a bit too early to be deciding that he should play a prominent role for the rest of the season. Well he's hitting .333 at AAA with a OPS of .827, so yea when you combine majors and minors I think he's having a great year. I wouldn't say prominent role, but he sure looks like he can start 10-15 games to give Shaw and Hanley the rest they need. Agreed. Hernandez has always been a reasonably good hitter, he's young, he can legitimately play short...get him some MLB at-bats and get a better sense of what his future role might be. I have no issue with getting him at least 15 starts. Even if he doesn't post great offensive numbers, there are plenty of hitters on this team. More PAs and more time in the field will almost certainly improve his trade value, and if he struggles he's still young enough that he can probably serve as a quality utility option with some more experience. The worst that can happen is that he stays just a depth option, the best is that he proves to be a more-than-capable multi-utility guy who might even appeal to another team as a second-division starter. An average SS with a .700-.750 OPS bat has significant value. And that's not to say I want him traded...I liked his bat when they acquired him, and it's looking even better now...he's appearing more and more like an excellent depth option.
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Post by telson13 on May 31, 2016 22:44:33 GMT -5
Outside of the way he is currently pitching, what data do you have to show he was a #2 this winter? Rick Porcello, 2013-15: 90 xFIP- Jon Lester, 2013-15: 86 xFIP- Granted, Porcello has a history of underperforming his peripherals due to issues with pitching out of the stretch. But even taking that into account, he's on the border between a number two and a number three for me, and I wouldn't be too concerned if he was their second-best starter going into the playoffs. It's not ideal, but it's something I can tolerate considering how great the offense is. If Wright continues to be this good, or only regresses a little bit and still looks like a number two/three starter by October? I wouldn't really be concerned about the rotation at all. Yeah, as wary as I am of "counting" on a knuckleballer in the playoffs, Wright is giving every indication of being able to put up plenty of innings, and solid to good ones at that. Porcello looks like a first-division 3. Rodriguez certainly can be that, and more. Price hasn't looked like a 1, but he has the track record, and his velocity is getting back closer to his usual sitting 94. They don't need a 3 in the 5 spot, just a serviceable (Dempster-Doubront-Peavy '13) pitcher who can log 100-120 innings over the remaining course of the season. If 2013 proved anything, it's that you don't need a great regular season rotation to win, just a reasonably reliable one with a good bullpen. There's every indication that the Sox currently have both, at a minimum. And in the playoffs, you just need a few guys to get white hot. With this offense, and the talent (if not consistency) of the pitching staff, I like their chances.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 1, 2016 2:09:35 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 1, 2016 4:05:14 GMT -5
Well he's hitting .333 at AAA with a OPS of .827, so yea when you combine majors and minors I think he's having a great year. I wouldn't say prominent role, but he sure looks like he can start 10-15 games to give Shaw and Hanley the rest they need. Agreed. Hernandez has always been a reasonably good hitter, he's young, he can legitimately play short...get him some MLB at-bats and get a better sense of what his future role might be. I have no issue with getting him at least 15 starts. Even if he doesn't post great offensive numbers, there are plenty of hitters on this team. More PAs and more time in the field will almost certainly improve his trade value, and if he struggles he's still young enough that he can probably serve as a quality utility option with some more experience. The worst that can happen is that he stays just a depth option, the best is that he proves to be a more-than-capable multi-utility guy who might even appeal to another team as a second-division starter. An average SS with a .700-.750 OPS bat has significant value. And that's not to say I want him traded...I liked his bat when they acquired him, and it's looking even better now...he's appearing more and more like an excellent depth option. He also brings true speed to the table. Which is good for infield hits (maybe bunting included), steals, and extra bases in general. This team could use a little more of that surprisingly. Mookie is the only other steal threat. The Sox run the bases really well but having a extra player in the lineup could bring a extra dimension like that to a already loaded lineup, can only make it better. Hernandez has a lot of likeable tools. Good arm, great speed, good hands, good enough hit tool. Sneaky good player. I have no doubt that if Hanley hits the DL like some fear here at some point, that a Hernandez/Rutledge platoon would be sufficient to Hanley to fill in at 3B (maybe even replicating Hanley's production), while Shaw moves to first base.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2016 4:52:58 GMT -5
The offense is top notch as it is, but that's exactly why improving it would be even better. Offense improves non-linearly so adding a good hitter to a good offense makes an even bigger impact. Further, it doesn't matter where we upgrade, a run scored is as valuable as a run saved, so if we can score more runs by improving LF than we'd save by improving the rotation that's what we should do (assuming equal cost). This is an excellent post and I have nothing to add to it. It's sad that this thread is going to continue with dozens of posters ignoring these points. Called it.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 1, 2016 8:29:37 GMT -5
Good article. Shelby Miller = Pablo Sandoval. Only difference is they traded their Moncada/Margot to the Braves & we just lost money. I can't see any way Greinke comes to Boston with his no trade clause and contract.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2016 15:39:40 GMT -5
You're saying the same thing... A 61st-90th best starter is just about an average starter, so the 70/80/90/100 scale works. But that also means a #4 is by definition below average, and also, there are more below average starters than above average ones (because attrition, turnover, injuries, etc.) It also means that only a couple guys a season are "excellent". Jmei do you really think there are 30 #1 pitchers every year? You really think because a guy ranked 31-60 in one given year that makes him a #2 pitcher? For me a lot of #2 will be in that top 30 any given year due to injuries, players having bad years and the fact that there aren't 30 #1, #2 and #3 starters every year. It's the Wade Miley debate, sure last year he ranked as a #3 pitcher, but for me that doesn't make him one. He's a 4\5 to me all day long. The way to do this: 1-15, #1 16-45, #2 46-75, #3 76-105, #4 106-135, #5 136-150, needs replacement Good teams have an ace, bad teams don't, so there are only 15 aces. Good teams have a #5 starter who is adequate, bad teams don't, so at the other end, there are 15 guys in MLB rotations who aren't even #5's. And this puts the 1 through 3 guys as above average and the 4 and 5 as below, which is exactly how we think of it. For xFIP-, based on the 758 guys with 80 IP as a starter, 2011-2015 82 is borderline #1/#2 at or below 94 is #2 95 to 100 is #3 at or below 107 is #4 108 to 116 is #5 Porcello has a 90 xFIP- over his last 4 seasons, clearly #2 caliber peripherals. While I agree with your idea of ranking starters more than JMEI I still don't like the there's 30 #2s , 30 #3s, etc in a given year. To me you set a level for #1s, #2s, etc and then determine where a pitcher falls. Example #1s are 20% or better then league average, #2s are 15% better, #3 are 10% better, #4 are league average, #5 are below average. These are just examples, not what I think you should use. So in any given year the numbers of #1, #2 and #3 can be all over the place. You could have 15 #1, 23 #2 and 45 #3 starters. If you talk to DD I'm sure he would say that he thought Sox would have a rotation with 5 above average starters this year. It hasn't worked out so far, but tthat was what he expected. While league average rotations have below average players at #4 and #5 spots in rotations. Contenders for the most part don't go into season with that type of talent/expectations for #4 and #5 spot. If they did Sox would have declined Bucholz option and just went with a player like Owens.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 1, 2016 15:49:09 GMT -5
The way to do this: 1-15, #1 16-45, #2 46-75, #3 76-105, #4 106-135, #5 136-150, needs replacement Good teams have an ace, bad teams don't, so there are only 15 aces. Good teams have a #5 starter who is adequate, bad teams don't, so at the other end, there are 15 guys in MLB rotations who aren't even #5's. And this puts the 1 through 3 guys as above average and the 4 and 5 as below, which is exactly how we think of it. For xFIP-, based on the 758 guys with 80 IP as a starter, 2011-2015 82 is borderline #1/#2 at or below 94 is #2 95 to 100 is #3 at or below 107 is #4 108 to 116 is #5 Porcello has a 90 xFIP- over his last 4 seasons, clearly #2 caliber peripherals. While I agree with your idea of ranking starters more than JMEI I still don't like the there's 30 #2s , 30 #3s, etc in a given year. To me you set a level for #1s, #2s, etc and then determine where a pitcher falls. Example #1s are 20% or better then league average, #2s are 15% better, #3 are 10% better, #4 are league average, #5 are below average. These are just examples, not what I think you should use. So in any given year the numbers of #1, #2 and #3 can be all over the place. You could have 15 #1, 23 #2 and 45 #3 starters.
If you talk to DD I'm sure he would say that he thought Sox would have a rotation with 5 above average starters this year. It hasn't worked out so far, but tthat was what he expected. While league average rotations have below average players at #4 and #5 spots in rotations. Contenders for the most part don't go into season with that type of talent/expectations for #4 and #5 spot. If they did Sox would have declined Bucholz option and just went with a player like Owens. That's exactly what I did in the second half of the post, and why I did it. I ran the data for five years worth of seasons and translated it into xFIP- benchmarks. (Maybe you didn't read that far.) So your scenario in bold could absolutely happen. However, it's actually quite unlikely. In any given year the distribution by buckets will be very similar to an average one. So in your example, it would very strange for there to be 50% more guys between 95 and 100 than in an average year. But a few? Sure.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2016 15:52:13 GMT -5
Jmei do you really think there are 30 #1 pitchers every year? You really think because a guy ranked 31-60 in one given year that makes him a #2 pitcher? For me a lot of #2 will be in that top 30 any given year due to injuries, players having bad years and the fact that there aren't 30 #1, #2 and #3 starters every year. It's the Wade Miley debate, sure last year he ranked as a #3 pitcher, but for me that doesn't make him one. He's a 4\5 to me all day long. It's not just one year-- Porcello's peripherals have been at that level for the past three-and-a-half years now. The issue is that your personal sense of what a number one, two, three, etc. starter is is poorly calibrated. It doesn't accurately reflect the actual distribution of starting pitcher performance or the actual composition of postseason rotations. By both those non-arbitrary standards, if Rick Porcello is the second-best starting pitcher in your rotation, you're doing OK. I feel the same way about how you rank starters. I think it's crazy to just assume there's 30 #1 30 #2 30 #3 etc. In a given year. Look at Lester, he has had season i would rank as a #1, #2 and a #3 over his career. Taken as a whole I rank him as a #2 for a contending rotation. I agree if Porcello continues to pitch this way we'll be OK. I'm just not 100% positive that happens.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2016 16:09:24 GMT -5
While I agree with your idea of ranking starters more than JMEI I still don't like the there's 30 #2s , 30 #3s, etc in a given year. To me you set a level for #1s, #2s, etc and then determine where a pitcher falls. Example #1s are 20% or better then league average, #2s are 15% better, #3 are 10% better, #4 are league average, #5 are below average. These are just examples, not what I think you should use. So in any given year the numbers of #1, #2 and #3 can be all over the place. You could have 15 #1, 23 #2 and 45 #3 starters.
If you talk to DD I'm sure he would say that he thought Sox would have a rotation with 5 above average starters this year. It hasn't worked out so far, but tthat was what he expected. While league average rotations have below average players at #4 and #5 spots in rotations. Contenders for the most part don't go into season with that type of talent/expectations for #4 and #5 spot. If they did Sox would have declined Bucholz option and just went with a player like Owens. That's exactly what I did in the second half of the post, and why I did it. I ran the data for five years worth of seasons and translated it into xFIP- benchmarks. (Maybe you didn't read that far.) So your scenario in bold could absolutely happen. However, it's actually quite unlikely. In any given year the distribution by buckets will be very similar to an average one. So in your example, it would very strange for there to be 50% more guys between 95 and 100 than in an average year. But a few? Sure. Change your levels and your results would change greatly I assume. Based off of Fangraph table I would say a #2 is 89 or better, 90 to 100 is a #3 for a contending team. I feel a number 2 should be great and a number three should be above average, while an Ace is excellent for a contending team.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 1, 2016 18:53:33 GMT -5
This is an excellent post and I have nothing to add to it. It's sad that this thread is going to continue with dozens of posters ignoring these points. Called it. Awww...sad face. I've absolutely advocated a quality LH platoon bat in LF, ideally Reddick (if he's healthy and hitting by mid-July), or, say CarGo in a pure salary dump without sending much (any) talent the other way. The non-linear offense response (i.e., more baserunners, more pitching from the stretch) is a huge consideration, particularly given the highly favorable return-on-investment versus acquiring pitching (which is already overpriced and likely to be ludicrously so given the dearth on the market).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 2, 2016 2:13:41 GMT -5
How to improve the Red Sox? Bring up Roenis Ellias and send Joe Kelly to AAA. Roenis Elias is a little bit better looking at the stats since 2015. Well at least I think the Sox are on the same page with me on this one, finally. I couldn't stand Kelly.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 2, 2016 7:47:53 GMT -5
I wouldn't be all that surprised if Kelly or Buchholz end up being the starter in a couple weeks (next time they need a fifth starter).
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 2, 2016 12:44:56 GMT -5
I wouldn't be all that surprised if Kelly or Buchholz end up being the starter in a couple weeks (next time they need a fifth starter). Everyone has had a shot. Give Elias his shot. If he spits the bit, just take the hot hand at that point. We'll have a better idea of who's pitching well in 3 weeks.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 3, 2016 14:35:25 GMT -5
Anyone still want to admonish those of us who saw some big flaws with a <paraphrased> "you guys are crazy, they're a first place team" now?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 3, 2016 14:53:03 GMT -5
Anyone still want to admonish those of us who saw some big flaws with a <paraphrased> "you guys are crazy, they're a first place team" now? Still best team in AL.
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Post by jmei on Jun 3, 2016 15:00:12 GMT -5
Their front four starters still project, in my mind, to be average-to-better starters. Fifth starter may be a problem, but they have internal options, and even with a replacement-level fifth starter, they're still one of the better teams in the AL.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jun 3, 2016 15:36:18 GMT -5
I think to improve the team, ideally you would go back in time and use the 72.5 million used to sign Rusney Castillo to sign Andrew Miller and then Darren O'Day, then have Margot as your current LF (or have used a similar trade package for a starter). Also go back to release Clay Buchholz and sign Rich Hill instead. Ah, hindsight.
In seriousness, though, I think the team is pretty well-equipped right now. The one move I would make immediately, to nobody's surprise, is firing Farrell (and graciously move him into a front office position, letting Lovullo take over). This would immediately improve bullpen management and situational adjustments, though I do think Farrell is quite good at maintaining clubhouse chemistry (though even this, he might have started to struggle with, given Tazawa's comments last night). I also wouldn't totally admonish DD if he wanted to trade some package of Devers/Owens/Marrero or Hernandez/Kelly or Buchholz for a better 5th starter. And even that could end up being a reactionary and costly mistake, since I still do very much like Devers. I really do not want to see Espinoza, Benintendi, or Moncada moved, unless its for a true stud, like Trout. And I still might not move Espinoza for anything given the dearth of pitching in the system.
Thus, another direction is taking scottysmalls suggestion, assuming you buy into the non-linearity of improving offense. Imagine a 1-8, in some form, of... Mookie-Trout-Bogaerts-Ortiz-JBJ-Hanley-Shaw-Pedroia? Maybe DD makes a ridiculous splash and just goes all in. The league, and thus DD, are likely drooling at the possibility of a Red Sox-Cubs World Series narrative, particularly with Lester, Lackey, Ross, and Theo over there in Chicago. Adding Trout makes this possibility even more likely.
Most realistically, right now, you probably just wait until the trade deadline, and reassess the market. No need to make any panic moves.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 3, 2016 15:54:55 GMT -5
It's too early to get a trade going, so the Sox need bullpen help and I believe it's not at Pawtucket. You mean to tell me we can t go to a lower level and get a kid in our system who has a two pitch mix with swing and miss stuff? I mean Toronto did it last year with Osuna he came from single A ball and I think he was twenty. He is still in there bullpen.
Also how far away is Workman? At least we can compete with anyone in the AL.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2016 16:02:42 GMT -5
It's too early to get a trade going, so the Sox need bullpen help and I believe it's not at Pawtucket. You mean to tell me we can t go to a lower level and get a kid in our system who has a two pitch mix with swing and miss stuff? I mean Toronto did it last year with Osuna he came from single A ball and I think he was twenty. He is still in there bullpen. Also how far away is Workman? At least we can compete with anyone in the AL. Let me introduce to Kyle Martin: He’s striking out almost one third of the batters he’s facing (32.1%!!!) and generating 16.4% of Pop Ups ( I consider them as automatic outs as the Ks), He basically doesn't walk anybody (1.03 BB per 9 innings), his ground balls generating ability is not too shabby (A solid 44.8% GB%), keeps the ball in the park (0 dingers allowed). His FIP for the season is 0.96!!! Give the man a chance.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2016 17:26:29 GMT -5
How is Anthony Varvaro not on the roster?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2016 17:27:50 GMT -5
How is there no game thread?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2016 17:41:11 GMT -5
How is there no game thread? At least it won't suck as usual.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 3, 2016 17:59:18 GMT -5
How is there no game thread? At least it won't suck as usual. It's an easy cure, don't open it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2016 18:42:40 GMT -5
At least it won't suck as usual. It's an easy cure, don't open it. Seriously, stop replying to me. I've already done it until now.
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