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How do you improve the Red Sox
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Post by Guidas on Jun 15, 2016 11:18:52 GMT -5
We're going have to trade some of them eventually. Too many potential major leaguers for the spots we'll have. Choose wisely, Dave. Personally, I would take 3 or more years control of above average/elite MLB-proven performance now for players in positions of need (LF/SP/RP/C) in exchange for packages involing 6 years control of potentially above average/elite players. The 3+ year of control gives the MLB team time/opportunity to replenish the farm, especially with so much of the current potentially elite talent being at the lower levels. Make no mistake, I love the potential of these prospects, but it's just that - potential. The primary goal is to win at the MLB level. I am not saying to deal off all of the Top 4, but if the return is above average/elite MLB players who are not half-year rentals, I'm all for it.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 15, 2016 12:24:10 GMT -5
Gray has a track record of great performance. It would be a bet that the Sox are making on a guy like Gray but it's a worthwhile bet if I'm the Sox. Depends on the cost. If it's more than Eduardo and another piece or two, then I'm passing. Gray's career FIP/xFIP are in the mid-3s, while his career ERA is 3.15 (that's with this year's awful 5.34 ERA). Just what are you expecting from him when he moves from a cavernous ballpark with tons of foul territory to a bandbox with almost no foul territory? Rodriguez put up a 3.85 ERA last year with FIP/xFIP right around 4, and that was in a tough AL East. Just how much better do you expect Gray to be? He's had problems all year with his curve: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-almost-unarmed/There's also the question of 1) is it an underlying injury, or 2) is he just "off" and struggling, and 3) what are the odds he's cooked, Barry Zito-style? Meanwhile, with Rodriguez coming back from injury, there's a clearly defined reason for why he's not pitching well, and a reasonable expectation that he'll improve. How much are you really gaining, if anything, with Gray, beyond name recognition?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 15, 2016 12:37:48 GMT -5
Gray has a track record of great performance. It would be a bet that the Sox are making on a guy like Gray but it's a worthwhile bet if I'm the Sox. Depends on the cost. If it's more than Eduardo and another piece or two, then I'm passing. Gray's career FIP/xFIP are in the mid-3s, while his career ERA is 3.15 (that's with this year's awful 5.34 ERA). Just what are you expecting from him when he moves from a cavernous ballpark with tons of foul territory to a bandbox with almost no foul territory? Rodriguez put up a 3.85 ERA last year with FIP/xFIP right around 4, and that was in a tough AL East. Just how much better do you expect Gray to be? He's had problems all year with his curve: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-almost-unarmed/There's also the question of 1) is it an underlying injury, or 2) is he just "off" and struggling, and 3) what are the odds he's cooked, Barry Zito-style? Meanwhile, with Rodriguez coming back from injury, there's a clearly defined reason for why he's not pitching well, and a reasonable expectation that he'll improve. How much are you really gaining, if anything, with Gray, beyond name recognition? I concur. At this point E-Rod is kind of in spring training mode. It's hard to make a judgment on him now. The pitcher he is now doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to be the same pitcher down the stretch. If he struggles now thru August and then suddenly is back to being the pitcher he was last year come September, that makes for a starting pitcher you'd want to give a start to in the post-season. At this point, the Sox have to hope that Elias is a serviceable starter and can hopefully be a reasonable alternative to start a post-season game should E-Rod not be himself. The best case scenario here would be that E-Rod gets healthy and is one of the four starters you feel comfortable with getting a post-season start and Elias becomes a solid #5 starter during the season and lefty LOOGY/long reliever asset out of the bullpen in the playoffs. I much prefer the above because I, too, cringe at what it would cost to get a top notch starter, few of which are really available. And as far as Gray is concerned, I'm not convinced he'll be better short-term or long-term over E-Rod, especially if taken out of Oakland and placed into Boston. The improvements the Sox need to make are around the edges, a solid reliever that Farrell will actually use - and I agree with Eric Van, that Farrell has missed the boat on Tazawa as the primary 8th inning guy and the idea of mixing and matching with Uehara and Ross in the 7th, but even with that the Sox really need to replace with a reasonable facsimile of what Carson Smith was supposed to give them. And they need to get a LH bat that can play LF and free Holt to be a valuable utility man and/or pinch-hitter for Vazquez. Those are the types of moves I'd like to see. I don't want to see the Sox give up valuable commodities to get Teheran from Atlanta, which I worry they will do.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 15, 2016 12:50:47 GMT -5
Gray's career FIP/xFIP are in the mid-3s, while his career ERA is 3.15 (that's with this year's awful 5.34 ERA). Just what are you expecting from him when he moves from a cavernous ballpark with tons of foul territory to a bandbox with almost no foul territory? Rodriguez put up a 3.85 ERA last year with FIP/xFIP right around 4, and that was in a tough AL East. Just how much better do you expect Gray to be? He's had problems all year with his curve: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sonny-gray-is-almost-unarmed/There's also the question of 1) is it an underlying injury, or 2) is he just "off" and struggling, and 3) what are the odds he's cooked, Barry Zito-style? Meanwhile, with Rodriguez coming back from injury, there's a clearly defined reason for why he's not pitching well, and a reasonable expectation that he'll improve. How much are you really gaining, if anything, with Gray, beyond name recognition? I concur. At this point E-Rod is kind of in spring training mode. It's hard to make a judgment on him now. The pitcher he is now doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to be the same pitcher down the stretch. If he struggles now thru August and then suddenly is back to being the pitcher he was last year come September, that makes for a starting pitcher you'd want to give a start to in the post-season. At this point, the Sox have to hope that Elias is a serviceable starter and can hopefully be a reasonable alternative to start a post-season game should E-Rod not be himself. The best case scenario here would be that E-Rod gets healthy and is one of the four starters you feel comfortable with getting a post-season start and Elias becomes a solid #5 starter during the season and lefty LOOGY/long reliever asset out of the bullpen in the playoffs. I much prefer the above because I, too, cringe at what it would cost to get a top notch starter, few of which are really available. And as far as Gray is concerned, I'm not convinced he'll be better short-term or long-term over E-Rod, especially if taken out of Oakland and placed into Boston. The improvements the Sox need to make are around the edges, a solid reliever that Farrell will actually use - and I agree with Eric Van, that Farrell has missed the boat on Tazawa as the primary 8th inning guy and the idea of mixing and matching with Uehara and Ross in the 7th, but even with that the Sox really need to replace with a reasonable facsimile of what Carson Smith was supposed to give them. And they need to get a LH bat that can play LF and free Holt to be a valuable utility man and/or pinch-hitter for Vazquez. Those are the types of moves I'd like to see. I don't want to see the Sox give up valuable commodities to get Teheran from Atlanta, which I worry they will do. Funny, you pretty much brought up every point I was too lazy to. Teheran, as an extreme flyball pitcher, would be a disaster in Fenway and the AL East in general. Can you imagine him against lefties in Yankee Stadium? Or in the Rogers center against Donaldson/Encarnacion/Bautista? Good grief...makes me want to channel my inner Brando as I sweat profusely and mutter "the horror...the horror." Agree 100% about Elias. If he bombs (I think he just goes one against the Mariners, then it's Clay vs Chi), then maybe it's time to consider a trade. But trying to get a "#2" is not only going to be a Pyrrhic victory (the prospect cost will be ludicrous for questionable return), but it's probably not necessary: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/06/15/what-kind-pitcher-are-red-sox-really-market-for/MOMNIRaf95LmK0IBfrcRLK/story.html
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 15, 2016 14:20:23 GMT -5
Well I think Tehran would be pretty bad in the Al East too, so I'm with you there.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 15, 2016 15:39:16 GMT -5
Hadn't even really thought about this. I know we all love Vazquez's defense, but Lucroy is very good on that end and is a massive, massive upgrade offensively at one of the only spots we can really improve.
I know the knee jerk reaction is that he's not a pitcher, but the reality is you improve however you can, and if there isn't a stud pitcher available, Lucroy might be our best shot to significantly upgrade the roster. 1 more year of control for virtually nothing in terms of salary, so he's not a rental but he also won't cost an arm and a leg (will cost an arm OR a leg).
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2016 16:18:02 GMT -5
We're going have to trade some of them eventually. Too many potential major leaguers for the spots we'll have. Choose wisely, Dave. Personally, I would take 3 or more years control of above average/elite MLB-proven performance now for players in positions of need (LF/SP/RP/C) in exchange for packages involing 6 years control of potentially above average/elite players. The 3+ year of control gives the MLB team time/opportunity to replenish the farm, especially with so much of the current potentially elite talent being at the lower levels. Make no mistake, I love the potential of these prospects, but it's just that - potential. The primary goal is to win at the MLB level. I am not saying to deal off all of the Top 4, but if the return is above average/elite MLB players who are not half-year rentals, I'm all for it. Unfortunately, the cost of the players you want are at an all-time high in terms of prospects so it doesn't make sense.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 15, 2016 16:18:15 GMT -5
There is no doubt in my mind that the best way to improve the Red Sox is to add a Rondon to the team somewhere somehow. Most teams have a player with that name and sadly...the Sox do not. They had one, but traded him to the White Sox and they have never been the same since. We want Rondon!!!!
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 15, 2016 16:24:57 GMT -5
There is no doubt in my mind that the best way to improve the Red Sox is to add a Rondon to the team somewhere somehow. Most teams have a player with that name and sadly...the Sox do not. They had one, but traded him to the White Sox and they have never been the same since. We want Rondon!!!! You mean Rodon? Well he was drafted at 3 overall, so good luck. Maybe in 5 years, Groome will be that guy, if he changes his name. We're not getting Rodon. Or Rondon from the Cubs. I'm kinda confused by your post.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 15, 2016 16:47:59 GMT -5
Hadn't even really thought about this. I know we all love Vazquez's defense, but Lucroy is very good on that end and is a massive, massive upgrade offensively at one of the only spots we can really improve. I know the knee jerk reaction is that he's not a pitcher, but the reality is you improve however you can, and if there isn't a stud pitcher available, Lucroy might be our best shot to significantly upgrade the roster. 1 more year of control for virtually nothing in terms of salary, so he's not a rental but he also won't cost an arm and a leg (will cost an arm OR a leg). There has been talk of Lucroy potentially being transitioned to first next year in Milwaukee. Not sure it that means he's not long for C or not. Also not sure if this would be similar long term for Boston if they traded for him. There would be a slot at 1B next season but the value of the player would be significantly reduced by such a move especially compared to what would have to be given up for him in trade.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jun 15, 2016 17:00:39 GMT -5
I hope Elias pitches well for us and we can feel less worried about getting a SP pitcher. ERod may just need time until he pitches like a strong 3. He looks uncomfortable out there yet. I like what I see out of Hembree.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 15, 2016 17:44:45 GMT -5
We're going have to trade some of them eventually. Too many potential major leaguers for the spots we'll have. Choose wisely, Dave. No. There's an alternate strategy. They could hold on to the prospects allowing them to trade young cost controlled veterans when their value was highest. For example, had they held on to Margot, he could have played left in 2017, and shifted to center in 2018 when Benintendi was ready. This would have enabled them to trade Bradley for young pitching or to meet other needs. Now I'm not advocating that they should follow this approach at all times, but I think they should try to find ways to do it from time to time as a way of replenishing the farm system. My concern with the Red Sox current approach is that it is overly dependent on prospects as trade chips. Because the return on prospects is so small, a team has to be almost perfect in the draft to acquire enough prospects to sustain this approach. Over the last 15 years, the Red Sox have been awfully good at the draft, and over the last half decade, they have supplemented that by being awfully good in the IFA market. I'm just not sure this level of performance is sustainable especially given the lengths MLB has gone to to make it hard for good teams to acquire amateur talent.
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Post by thursty on Jun 15, 2016 19:06:49 GMT -5
Rodriguez has made 8 starts between AAA and ML (44+ IP), the it's still spring training fallacy is getting tired. Come up with something better
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 15, 2016 20:07:14 GMT -5
There is no doubt in my mind that the best way to improve the Red Sox is to add a Rondon to the team somewhere somehow. Most teams have a player with that name and sadly...the Sox do not. They had one, but traded him to the White Sox and they have never been the same since. We want Rondon!!!! You mean Rodon? Well he was drafted at 3 overall, so good luck. Maybe in 5 years, Groome will be that guy, if he changes his name. We're not getting Rodon. Or Rondon from the Cubs. I'm kinda confused by your post. No..I meant Rondon..Do you remember Cleuluis Rondon? He was a low level prospect (if you could say that) the Sox traded to the White Sox for who i can't remember.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 15, 2016 21:42:17 GMT -5
Rodriguez has made 8 starts between AAA and ML (44+ IP), the it's still spring training fallacy is getting tired. Come up with something better How about he's in his spring training coming off a knee injury. Is that good enough for you? Geez, it must really suck to live in your world. It's really amazing that you thought he'd come out of the chute pitching like Cy Young considering that he must have discomfort trying to pitch thru this. Can't imagine he's used to pitching in a knee brace. Must feel very unnatural to him. I'm going to try some patience with him first as he tries to get his legs stronger (Pedro who knows a thing or two about pitching commented about his lack of leg strength and how he'd have to build it up during the course of the year.) That makes more sense to me.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jun 16, 2016 2:49:35 GMT -5
Cleuluis Rondon..Traded to the Chicago White Sox allong with Frank Montas and J. B. Wendelken that sent Jose Iglesias to the Tigers and btought Jake Peavy and Brayan Villareal to the Red Sox along with Avisail Garcia who was sent to the White Sox.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 16, 2016 4:27:03 GMT -5
Eduardo is clearly not up to full strength yet. He was up to 95 in the first two innings of his last start but then the velocity dropped dramatically. Like in the 91-92 range after. Hopefully he can continually build more and more strength, hopefully.
I don't have many worries long term about this but short term, I think even the Sox might be concerned. Who knows if he ever gets back up to full strength this year on a bad knee?
This isn't me knocking Eduardo either, I think he could be Jose Quintana Jr in the future.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 16, 2016 4:41:23 GMT -5
Could Yulieski Gurriel be a option if the Sox are looking to upgrade?
The guy is supposed to be the best talent to ever come from Cuba, he was just declared a free agent.
Maybe the Sox can pick up his brother as a outfielder too.
I don't think the Sox are up for another Cuban signing after the Castillo bust though.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 16, 2016 8:29:45 GMT -5
Could Yulieski Gurriel be a option if the Sox are looking to upgrade? The guy is supposed to be the best talent to ever come from Cuba, he was just declared a free agent. Maybe the Sox can pick up his brother as a outfielder too. I don't think the Sox are up for another Cuban signing after the Castillo bust though. Agree...seems for every Cespedes, there are 2 or 3 busts. The Dodgers just released Guerrero. Tomas is just fair. Abreu is somewhat coming back to earth. Castillo, well....., Puig is good, but has some non baseball issues (and some baseball issues), Moncada looks to be more in the Cespedes mold.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 16, 2016 8:55:08 GMT -5
Hadn't even really thought about this. I know we all love Vazquez's defense, but Lucroy is very good on that end and is a massive, massive upgrade offensively at one of the only spots we can really improve. I know the knee jerk reaction is that he's not a pitcher, but the reality is you improve however you can, and if there isn't a stud pitcher available, Lucroy might be our best shot to significantly upgrade the roster. 1 more year of control for virtually nothing in terms of salary, so he's not a rental but he also won't cost an arm and a leg (will cost an arm OR a leg). Had the same thought a few days ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/208736As always, depends on the cost, but Temple would drive Vazquez to Milwaukee. ADDED: It is still infuriating that instead of sending Swihart to AAA to improve on his receiving skills they instead executed this half-assed left-field experiment. If they didn't like him as a catcher they should've still kept him there to maintain trade value. That bat is not meant for LF, unless, of course, the new AL standard for LF is Brock Holt. I can't think of another prospect who has been mishandled this badly, and I can't conceive of the thinking that went into diluting such an enviable position of strength - an above ave catching prospect - who was a valuable trade chip and a potential above average MLB player behind the plate once he improved his footwork and glove skills.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2016 10:44:32 GMT -5
There is no doubt in my mind that the best way to improve the Red Sox is to add a Rondon to the team somewhere somehow. Most teams have a player with that name and sadly...the Sox do not. They had one, but traded him to the White Sox and they have never been the same since. We want Rondon!!!! Unfortunately, in a moment of impulsive weakness, they traded their Rondon. Cleuluis, we never knew you.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2016 10:47:46 GMT -5
Could Yulieski Gurriel be a option if the Sox are looking to upgrade? The guy is supposed to be the best talent to ever come from Cuba, he was just declared a free agent. Maybe the Sox can pick up his brother as a outfielder too. I don't think the Sox are up for another Cuban signing after the Castillo bust though. Agree...seems for every Cespedes, there are 2 or 3 busts. The Dodgers just released Guerrero. Tomas is just fair. Abreu is somewhat coming back to earth. Castillo, well....., Puig is good, but has some non baseball issues (and some baseball issues), Moncada looks to be more in the Cespedes mold. Even Cespedes was pretty mediocre his first 3 1/2 seasons. Horrific OBPs, average defense despite a cannon arm, and OK but nothing special power-wise. I think Moncada's going to be the best of the bunch.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2016 11:09:22 GMT -5
Rodriguez has made 8 starts between AAA and ML (44+ IP), the it's still spring training fallacy is getting tired. Come up with something better Yeah, he's had the equivalent of ST and three regular-season starts. Clearly, the chasm of difference those extra 20 or so innings make is so astounding as to make your point incontrovertible. By that reasoning, we should've panicked when Price's ERA was north of 6 and his velocity was way down to start the season too. You can use all the semantic smoke and mirrors you want, but the underlying basis of his "ST mode" argument is valid: the guy is recovering from (serious, as in patellar subluxation) injury and has yet to build strength. Thanks for playing, though.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2016 11:22:59 GMT -5
Eduardo is clearly not up to full strength yet. He was up to 95 in the first two innings of his last start but then the velocity dropped dramatically. Like in the 91-92 range after. Hopefully he can continually build more and more strength, hopefully. I don't have many worries long term about this but short term, I think even the Sox might be concerned. Who knows if he ever gets back up to full strength this year on a bad knee? This isn't me knocking Eduardo either, I think he could be Jose Quintana Jr in the future. That's my point, though: odds are, this is a short-term (weeks) issue. So what added value do you get by losing two years of control, adding $4-15m/yr in salary (since Gray's arb-eligible), losing at least one other high-quality prospect (plus others), and risking Gray not only continuing to pitch poorly, but doing so because of an undiagnosed injury, and doing even worse because the ballpark and division are *much* less pitcher-friendly? I say keep sending Rodriguez out there, try Elias out, hope some things break right, and when late July rolls around, and you're almost invariably still in it (Wright, Price, and Porcello with that offense is going to keep them in any race but the NL Central), **then** you make a move if you really think you need to to stay in it/put yourself over the top. Right now, the Sox are three games *under* their Pythagorean expected W%, have the best run differential in the AL, and have an awful record in 1-run games (which are largely chance-determined, and thus teams should be close to .500 by odds). All of that says to me: be patient, this is a very good team. Deal from strength and don't be hasty.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 16, 2016 12:01:57 GMT -5
Call the Marlins up and get this guy. Yeah, the walks will drive us nuts, but this excerpt says it all: "You can tell from reading the name that however it’s pronounced is going to be awesome, but it’s pronounced “bear claw,” which is better than anything you could’ve possibly imagined. No need for a nickname here. No need to go down the obvious barracuda path. His name is the thing a giant animal uses to maul the other animals it’s looking to slaughter. Bear claw. His name is Kyle Bear-claw. It’s exactly as intimidating as Albert Pujols‘ name isn’t. Barraclough was born to be a fire-balling reliever, or a warrior with insatiable bloodthirst." www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-pitcher-who-doesnt-get-put-into-play/
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