SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Select LHP Jason Groome (ADD: signed for $3.65M)
|
Post by bigpupp on Jul 12, 2016 14:00:23 GMT -5
We've heard that Shawaryn is seeking overslot $, but has anyone heard anything on Dalbec? I get that Arizona made it to the very end of the CWS, but if this was a simple slot agreement, I'd think he would be signed by now. So is Dalbec also seeking overslot, or are the Sox trying to get a little more savings here? I wouldn't assume Dalbec not being signed means he wants more than slot. Once the Sox sign the rest of their top 10 picks then Groom's agent can hold out for 100% of the Sox' remaining pool. The Sox knowing Dalbec and Shawaryn number, but keeping them unsigned for a few more days, creates some uncertainty for Groomes's agent - which is a good thing.
|
|
|
Post by redseat on Jul 12, 2016 14:29:55 GMT -5
Groome would be foolish not to sign for $4M or even a bit less.
First because he could get hurt or have a mediocre year-- or other top prospects could have really good years-- and be in the same position or worse next year.
Second because if he signs now and starts working on his craft, he's that much closer to the really big payout: his first free-agent contract. He won't learn much overpowering Juco batters. So he'd probably be one year further from the >$100 bonanza.
|
|
|
Post by ricelynnevans on Jul 12, 2016 14:42:47 GMT -5
Falling that far was never happening. If I was a GM, I could blow smoke and tell him I'd give you all my available excess pool if you fell to me in the 2nd round. If we didn't take him, someone shortly after us would have. I felt all along its a non issue. The kid probably wanted 4.5 we counter with 3.5 and I think it's gonna get done between 3.75 and 4. I don't see either side not making it happen.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 14:45:18 GMT -5
Groome can take his $4M, invest it, and make 10% in securities by the time he's getting his next offer. The earlier he starts his career the earlier he makes the big bucks. I agree that there's really little benefit to him to wait a year. The upside isn't all that up, if he's planning on actually continuing to play after signing (instead of a Denny money-and-run thing), and the downside is disastrous.
Get 'er done.
|
|
|
Post by redseat on Jul 12, 2016 15:10:32 GMT -5
One more point: Every time he pitches, he puts his $100-million arm at risk. If Sox are willing to pay him $4M to take that risk, why would he risk it for $0 at a Juco?
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Jul 12, 2016 15:11:43 GMT -5
This all sounds good to me. A reasonable $500K difference, a little jockeying at the end on both sides ... almost time to start speculating on how he'll do in the GCL this year, it looks like. I mean, until something's signed, there's always a chance someone gets stupidly stubborn, but this sure looks like end stages to me. Agreed, the gap is not too wide and if the Red Sox really like him, which by all accounts it seems pretty obvious they do, they're not going to let that get in the way. It's time we start dreaming about that Groome/Kopech/Espinoza/Couch rotation that seems inevitable and awesome.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jul 12, 2016 15:32:22 GMT -5
Groome can take his $4M, invest it, and make 10% in securities by the time he's getting his next offer. The earlier he starts his career the earlier he makes the big bucks. I agree that there's really little benefit to him to wait a year. The upside isn't all that up, if he's planning on actually continuing to play after signing (instead of a Denny money-and-run thing), and the downside is disastrous. Get 'er done. Yeah this is about as concise as it can be said. There is no guarantee that next year he will have the same hype and no guarantee in a stronger draft that he will be picked higher. Result...a lost year of development and farther away from a big payday.
|
|
|
Post by bigpupp on Jul 12, 2016 15:37:39 GMT -5
Can we at least wait until the 16th until we start second guessing this kid for not making a deal? Everyone who mattered said on draft night that this signing would go down to the wire. Nothing has changed since then. If Groome's is still unsigned when you wake up on the 16th then fire away but until then he has every right to hold out for as much money as possible and the front office has every right to draw a hard line.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 15:37:50 GMT -5
I have no idea how any of this could be attributed to maturity issues. What I'm saying is that we assume it was SD's second pick that they expected/hoped Groome would fall to and that they would offer him 5 million there. What if the 5 million was for their first pick and after.....whatever.....they changed their mind? It's not like reporters are always 100% accurate. See heyman, Jon on the international signing fiasco. There's all this talk about him being upset that he could've gotten 5 from SD had fallen to them and whatever Groome did is the reason the Padres didn't pick him with their first pick and not the fact that the Sox picked him before SD's second pick came up. I still have no idea what that has to do with maturity issues. Neither SD nor Groome had any control over the Red Sox taking him at 12 after SD passed on him with their first pick. That's why these deals for late in the draft are meaningless if they don't fall that far. Everyone should understand that. And his advisor should have set his expectations before and after the draft. That $5 million is gone and was always a long shot and shouldn't have anything to do with what they now sign him for. I don't know how you can assume that SD agreed to a deal and then backed out of it at #8. But what does it even matter anyway even if it's true?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 15:40:47 GMT -5
Groome can take his $4M, invest it, and make 10% in securities by the time he's getting his next offer. The earlier he starts his career the earlier he makes the big bucks. I agree that there's really little benefit to him to wait a year. The upside isn't all that up, if he's planning on actually continuing to play after signing (instead of a Denny money-and-run thing), and the downside is disastrous. Get 'er done. You could also say that about every single high school kid who is drafted no matter who he is. This calling him dumb for not signing is pretty crazy IMO. I started saying this in the very beginning of the draft period but it always happens over and over again, that so many people try to pretend they know what he's thinking and what is motivations are when they have absolutely no idea about it.
|
|
|
Post by ikonos on Jul 12, 2016 16:48:30 GMT -5
I am confused by Groome not taking a physical yet, this seems to be part of a dumb strategy; take the physical and then decide what you want to do; After learning this, I don't think he is getting/taking good advice If I were his advisor I would not let him take the physical until after signing the deal. Taking the physical before signing the deal only gives the leverage to the Redsox. If the reported number of 3.5m is correct, then the final number will be closer to 3.75m than to 4m.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jul 12, 2016 17:04:17 GMT -5
“@jonheyman: sources: red sox, groome talks are intensifying. not done yet. h/t @robertmurrayfrs”
|
|
|
Post by mjammz on Jul 12, 2016 17:04:23 GMT -5
Jon Heyman @jonheyman sources: red sox, groome talks are intensifying. not done yet.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Jul 12, 2016 17:06:13 GMT -5
Espinoza, Kopech, and Groome is so close...
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2016 18:24:29 GMT -5
Guys, this is how negotiation works. It's pretty obvious that Groome's agent is leaking to Heyman. The Sox will leak to someone like Alex or something and the sides will continue to play the game.
I'll still be stunned if this doesn't happen. There's no reason for it not to. As mentioned above, they'll start at like $3.5M and $4.5M and meet in the middle at $4M, but they have to play the game first.
As far as some other stuff mentioned: 1) Dalbec not signing is likely just a byproduct of his being in the CWS so long. Consider that Florida was eliminated on June 21 and Anderson signed on 7/3. Arizona lost the final game on the 30th, so Dalbec probably signs any day now - today would be an equivalent amount of time. 2) Re: Hunter Morris, as mentioned, that was a principle non-signing. The report is that he said what his number was before they picked him, they picked him, and then he changed the number on them. On principle, they couldn't sign him at that point in order to make sure nobody else tried the same thing in the future. He cost himself money with that trick too, because he went in the 4th round three years later.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 18:38:07 GMT -5
Groome can take his $4M, invest it, and make 10% in securities by the time he's getting his next offer. The earlier he starts his career the earlier he makes the big bucks. I agree that there's really little benefit to him to wait a year. The upside isn't all that up, if he's planning on actually continuing to play after signing (instead of a Denny money-and-run thing), and the downside is disastrous. Get 'er done. You could also say that about every single high school kid who is drafted no matter who he is. This calling him dumb for not signing is pretty crazy IMO. I started saying this in the very beginning of the draft period but it always happens over and over again, that so many people try to pretend they know what he's thinking and what is motivations are when they have absolutely no idea about it. I wasn't aware that at any point I called him, personally, dumb. In fact, I don't think I said at any point that not signing was dumb. What I did say was that in his particular case, it's unlikely that he stands to make significantly more money by waiting. He doesn't have a 4-year college commitment, so he's not in the same boat as "any HS kid who gets drafted." He's also been drafted high in the first round, which also can't be said of any HS kid who gets drafted. I'm not sure if you're replying to my comment specifically, but if you are you're addressing a completely different issue. Groome is a special case, and in his special case the downside risk, financially, is greater than the upside risk. He's got to make his own choices as to what's important to him, and if he wants to gamble on the chance that he gets a bigger bonus next year, that's his prerogative. But it's my opinion that IF he is quibbling over a relatively small percentage of his bonus, it's probabilistically not in his favor, if money is his major concern. What you're paraphrasing me as saying isn't remotely close to what I actually said.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 18:46:15 GMT -5
Can we at least wait until the 16th until we start second guessing this kid for not making a deal? Everyone who mattered said on draft night that this signing would go down to the wire. Nothing has changed since then. If Groome's is still unsigned when you wake up on the 16th then fire away but until then he has every right to hold out for as much money as possible and the front office has every right to draw a hard line. I'm going to presume this wasn't a response to my post, which had absolutely nothing to do with "second guessing." It's about what is in his *financial* best interests. Hell, he might not want to sign with the Sox because they have a poor recent track record with developing pitchers. Who knows? Nobody is second-guessing, because there's no choice yet to second-guess. I can say "I think X is his best option if Y is his main concern" and it's not second-guessing. Some of the comments here are blatant non-sequiturs.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2016 19:06:30 GMT -5
You could also say that about every single high school kid who is drafted no matter who he is. This calling him dumb for not signing is pretty crazy IMO. I started saying this in the very beginning of the draft period but it always happens over and over again, that so many people try to pretend they know what he's thinking and what is motivations are when they have absolutely no idea about it. I wasn't aware that at any point I called him, personally, dumb. In fact, I don't think I said at any point that not signing was dumb. What I did say was that in his particular case, it's unlikely that he stands to make significantly more money by waiting. He doesn't have a 4-year college commitment, so he's not in the same boat as "any HS kid who gets drafted." He's also been drafted high in the first round, which also can't be said of any HS kid who gets drafted. I'm not sure if you're replying to my comment specifically, but if you are you're addressing a completely different issue. Groome is a special case, and in his special case the downside risk, financially, is greater than the upside risk. He's got to make his own choices as to what's important to him, and if he wants to gamble on the chance that he gets a bigger bonus next year, that's his prerogative. But it's my opinion that IF he is quibbling over a relatively small percentage of his bonus, it's probabilistically not in his favor, if money is his major concern. What you're paraphrasing me as saying isn't remotely close to what I actually said. I didn't mean to single you out. I was talking about every single person questioning him for not signing. There is a damn good reason that anyone chooses to go to college and it doesn't have to line up with what people think he should do. It's their decision. It's not always about only money. And we do not know him, let alone know what he's thinking. At this point, I have to imagine that every single thing we hear is posturing by both sides, with none of it actually real.
|
|
|
Post by sammo420 on Jul 12, 2016 19:09:46 GMT -5
We know he looked awfully happy when we drafted him.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2016 19:48:38 GMT -5
I wasn't aware that at any point I called him, personally, dumb. In fact, I don't think I said at any point that not signing was dumb. What I did say was that in his particular case, it's unlikely that he stands to make significantly more money by waiting. He doesn't have a 4-year college commitment, so he's not in the same boat as "any HS kid who gets drafted." He's also been drafted high in the first round, which also can't be said of any HS kid who gets drafted. I'm not sure if you're replying to my comment specifically, but if you are you're addressing a completely different issue. Groome is a special case, and in his special case the downside risk, financially, is greater than the upside risk. He's got to make his own choices as to what's important to him, and if he wants to gamble on the chance that he gets a bigger bonus next year, that's his prerogative. But it's my opinion that IF he is quibbling over a relatively small percentage of his bonus, it's probabilistically not in his favor, if money is his major concern. What you're paraphrasing me as saying isn't remotely close to what I actually said. I didn't mean to single you out. I was talking about every single person questioning him for not signing. There is a damn good reason that anyone chooses to go to college and it doesn't have to line up with what people think he should do. It's their decision. It's not always about only money. And we do not know him, let alone know what he's thinking. At this point, I have to imagine that every single thing we hear is posturing by both sides, with none of it actually real. *That* I would agree with. I don't know what's important to him, I was simply commenting on the money aspect. Personally, money has never been that important to me, so I can understand his not looking at it as the end-all be-all. But, if it's true that the Sox are his favorite team, and given their commitment to winning (and current state of the organization to do so), I think a lot would point to him being in a near-ideal scenario. Hence, I think it's posturing to get what he can (and has earned) out of it, and getting on with things.
|
|
Canseco
Veteran
Posts: 944
Member is Online
|
Post by Canseco on Jul 12, 2016 20:10:40 GMT -5
Guys, this is how negotiation works. It's pretty obvious that Groome's agent is leaking to Heyman. The Sox will leak to someone like Alex or something and the sides will continue to play the game. I'll still be stunned if this doesn't happen. There's no reason for it not to. As mentioned above, they'll start at like $3.5M and $4.5M and meet in the middle at $4M, but they have to play the game first. As far as some other stuff mentioned: 1) Dalbec not signing is likely just a byproduct of his being in the CWS so long. Consider that Florida was eliminated on June 21 and Anderson signed on 7/3. Arizona lost the final game on the 30th, so Dalbec probably signs any day now - today would be an equivalent amount of time. 2) Re: Hunter Morris, as mentioned, that was a principle non-signing. The report is that he said what his number was before they picked him, they picked him, and then he changed the number on them. On principle, they couldn't sign him at that point in order to make sure nobody else tried the same thing in the future. He cost himself money with that trick too, because he went in the 4th round three years later. Many thanks for the lesson, professor.
|
|
|
Post by templeusox on Jul 13, 2016 1:02:09 GMT -5
This slightly protracted negotiation will be the least interesting thing aabout his time as a member of the Sox.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:44:36 GMT -5
You could also say that about every single high school kid who is drafted no matter who he is. This calling him dumb for not signing is pretty crazy IMO. I started saying this in the very beginning of the draft period but it always happens over and over again, that so many people try to pretend they know what he's thinking and what is motivations are when they have absolutely no idea about it. I wasn't aware that at any point I called him, personally, dumb. In fact, I don't think I said at any point that not signing was dumb. What I did say was that in his particular case, it's unlikely that he stands to make significantly more money by waiting. He doesn't have a 4-year college commitment, so he's not in the same boat as "any HS kid who gets drafted." He's also been drafted high in the first round, which also can't be said of any HS kid who gets drafted. I'm not sure if you're replying to my comment specifically, but if you are you're addressing a completely different issue. Groome is a special case, and in his special case the downside risk, financially, is greater than the upside risk. He's got to make his own choices as to what's important to him, and if he wants to gamble on the chance that he gets a bigger bonus next year, that's his prerogative. But it's my opinion that IF he is quibbling over a relatively small percentage of his bonus, it's probabilistically not in his favor, if money is his major concern. What you're paraphrasing me as saying isn't remotely close to what I actually said. How is his downside risk greater than the upside risk? Basically, the top 4 picks get more than 4m bonuses. Number 1 may get $8m, then #2 $7m, then 3 $6m then $5m. It's kind of insane to say this kid will definitely be the number 1 or 2 pick next year even if you can guarantee health. But you can't guarantee health. Then you need to factor in a lot of other things. For example, what if he ends up in San Diego vs Boston and he's as good as he could be. Don't you think he makes up the draft bonus difference and then some with local and national advertising before he even signs his second contract? I hesitate to even throw that out there as its a small factor in my opinion, but you're acting like its a guarantee or even 85% chance or better that he goes to school next year and gets drafted first or second overall.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 13, 2016 7:54:55 GMT -5
Since we're criticizing Groome for something he hasn't done yet, can I bash him for giving up a critical home run to Manny Machado in 5 years? Or should I just bash Farrell for leaving him in too long?
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
|
Post by nomar on Jul 13, 2016 8:17:56 GMT -5
Since we're criticizing Groome for something he hasn't done yet, can I bash him for giving up a critical home run to Manny Machado in 5 years? Or should I just bash Farrell for leaving him in too long? The location will have been bad, but it should have been Pat Light's job to get him out anyway.
|
|
|