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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 15, 2016 11:50:39 GMT -5
You think of a post-season bullpen featuring the K Gang: Kimbrel, Kopech, Kelly, and "K"arson Smith ... it's puzzling why DDo is not targeting a high-leverage capable lefty as an acquisition. And since he'd replace Abad (you don't want or need three lefties out there), that leaves a roster spot for Koji. A post-season bullpen of Kimbrel, Kopech, Kelly, Koji, "K"arson, new LHR stud, Ross, and Wright as the long man would be pretty fierce. I think he has Pomeranz for a high leverage lefty in the post season. It didn't work out last year with the Coco Crisp homer (which I thought was a fluke outside the zone), but Pomeranz does have the tools for it. I've changed my mind (not) and expect Kopech will be dominant (assuming he stays healthy) and they won't be able to keep him down. I think he projects to be their best starter in 2017, and that's saying something. Sort of in the mode of Felix Hernandez, Doc Gooden, and the select group of 20/21 year old pitchers who have made the jump with K/BB ratio of 3 -- what Bill James called the José Fernandez family. The next question will be, with stellar Buchholz back, who gets bumped from the rotation when Kopech comes up? You expect Kopech to give them a full year of starter innings ? I don't think they'll make him a super two or take that chance on his arm.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 15, 2016 13:05:39 GMT -5
Nice article by Stan Grossfeld in the Globe: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/14/sox-prospect-michael-kopech-believes-controversies-are-behind-him/xlhEICxDqdvsLsuRPbak2I/story.htmlKey point: Kopech is still *very* young, and will be very young at the time of his debut, which I peg at next August. That is pretty aggressive, but I think he's going to come on strong next year. I also think they'll put him in the 'pen at year's end due to innings/limited rotation space, and because he could be a huge playoff weapon there. I think he'll dominate AA until late June, get bumped, and have a strong enough run in Pawtucket to justify promotion. ROY 2018. Edit: can't wait to see his pitch f/x out of the bullpen. With Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, and maybe Kopech, that's four guys in the bullpen sitting 96-100. All the more reason to...BRING BACK KOJI! You could be way off and it may be September. I tend to agree with you on this one.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 15, 2016 13:08:26 GMT -5
Nice article by Stan Grossfeld in the Globe: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/14/sox-prospect-michael-kopech-believes-controversies-are-behind-him/xlhEICxDqdvsLsuRPbak2I/story.htmlKey point: Kopech is still *very* young, and will be very young at the time of his debut, which I peg at next August. That is pretty aggressive, but I think he's going to come on strong next year. I also think they'll put him in the 'pen at year's end due to innings/limited rotation space, and because he could be a huge playoff weapon there. I think he'll dominate AA until late June, get bumped, and have a strong enough run in Pawtucket to justify promotion. ROY 2018. Edit: can't wait to see his pitch f/x out of the bullpen. With Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, and maybe Kopech, that's four guys in the bullpen sitting 96-100. All the more reason to...BRING BACK KOJI! You think of a post-season bullpen featuring the K Gang: Kimbrel, Kopech, Kelly, and "K"arson Smith ... it's puzzling why DDo is not targeting a high-leverage capable lefty as an acquisition. And since he'd replace Abad (you don't want or need three lefties out there), that leaves a roster spot for Koji. A post-season bullpen of Kimbrel, Kopech, Kelly, Koji, "K"arson, new LHR stud, Ross, and Wright as the long man would be pretty fierce. Would it not be wise to have the last few men in the rotation battle it out in Spring Training. Wright pitched so well he deserves the chance to fight for a spot.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 15, 2016 14:20:51 GMT -5
I think he has Pomeranz for a high leverage lefty in the post season. It didn't work out last year with the Coco Crisp homer (which I thought was a fluke outside the zone), but Pomeranz does have the tools for it. I've changed my mind (not) and expect Kopech will be dominant (assuming he stays healthy) and they won't be able to keep him down. I think he projects to be their best starter in 2017, and that's saying something. Sort of in the mode of Felix Hernandez, Doc Gooden, and the select group of 20/21 year old pitchers who have made the jump with K/BB ratio of 3 -- what Bill James called the José Fernandez family. The next question will be, with stellar Buchholz back, who gets bumped from the rotation when Kopech comes up? You expect Kopech to give them a full year of starter innings ? I don't think they'll make him a super two or take that chance on his arm. Well, this is assuming he stays healthy, and dead-arm is a real injury that does not need to be reported to the injury database. It typically gets diagnosed backwards from the pitcher's performance, when the pitcher is "asymptomatic". The pitcher might report having trouble warming up, as Kopech did before his last start, when he was walking people. But yes, if he doesn't show dead-arm (or another injury) then I think nobody would leave a pitcher in the José Fernandez family (as Bill James called it) in the minors, who could be dominating in the majors.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 15, 2016 14:21:36 GMT -5
Nice article by Stan Grossfeld in the Globe: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/14/sox-prospect-michael-kopech-believes-controversies-are-behind-him/xlhEICxDqdvsLsuRPbak2I/story.htmlKey point: Kopech is still *very* young, and will be very young at the time of his debut, which I peg at next August. That is pretty aggressive, but I think he's going to come on strong next year. I also think they'll put him in the 'pen at year's end due to innings/limited rotation space, and because he could be a huge playoff weapon there. I think he'll dominate AA until late June, get bumped, and have a strong enough run in Pawtucket to justify promotion. ROY 2018. Edit: can't wait to see his pitch f/x out of the bullpen. With Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, and maybe Kopech, that's four guys in the bullpen sitting 96-100. All the more reason to...BRING BACK KOJI! You could be way off and it may be September. I tend to agree with you on this one. When you look at roster management ... Barnes will likely to be the guy who is in AAA on the rare occasions that they have 13 healthy pitchers. Hembree will get moved when Smith is verified OK (after hopefully establishing some small trade value, since he's all we have to show for Iglesias and Montas). Kopech can get a shot beginning in late July or early August when they have 2 guys on the DL. And he gets added to the pen on 9/1 and used in increasingly higher leverage roles throughout the month, as they determine exactly were he fits in the bullpen pecking order.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 15, 2016 14:25:49 GMT -5
You could be way off and it may be September. I tend to agree with you on this one. When you look at roster management ... Barnes will likely to be the guy who is in AAA on the rare occasions that they have 13 healthy pitchers. Hembree will get moved when Smith is verified OK (after hopefully establishing some small trade value, since he's all we have to show for Iglesias and Montas). Kopech can get a shot beginning in late July or early August when they have 2 guys on the DL. And he gets added to the pen on 9/1 and used in increasingly higher leverage roles throughout the month, as they determine exactly were he fits in the bullpen pecking order. Well Hembree and a World Series Trophy...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 15, 2016 14:26:42 GMT -5
You expect Kopech to give them a full year of starter innings ? I don't think they'll make him a super two or take that chance on his arm. Well, this is assuming he stays healthy, and dead-arm is a real injury that does not need to be reported to the injury database. It typically gets diagnosed backwards from the pitcher's performance, when the pitcher is "asymptomatic". The pitcher might report having trouble warming up, as Kopech did before his last start, when he was walking people. But yes, if he doesn't show dead-arm (or another injury) then I think nobody would leave a pitcher in the José Fernandez family (as Bill James called it) in the minors, who could be dominating in the majors. I don't think he can dominate in the majors until he improves the secondary pitches a bit, especially the change. I'd have him throwing a 60% FB, 20% SL, 20% CH mix even if it means being significantly less effective, for a good half-season. If it works as planned, he might be able to force his way into the rotation as early as late July. I think that if you look at contemporary scouting reports of the members of the Gooden / Fernandez family, they had significantly better secondaries than Kopech at his age. I can try doing that when I get back to Boston this weekend (in old back issues of BA).
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Post by joshbbr on Nov 15, 2016 15:34:12 GMT -5
Its Kopechs mechanics that lead to a bad secondary pitch, not the pitch itself. He has + stuff as is, but he hardly ever takes a straight path to the plate often ending early and late on the first. You combine that with his lack of effort off the back foot on the drive and it means his arm will be crossing over his front foot or releasing early leading to the lack of spin or missing location altogether. He is so close to excellence, and it takes the work ethic on the smallest of things for him to make it happen.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2016 16:50:55 GMT -5
Nice article by Stan Grossfeld in the Globe: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/14/sox-prospect-michael-kopech-believes-controversies-are-behind-him/xlhEICxDqdvsLsuRPbak2I/story.htmlKey point: Kopech is still *very* young, and will be very young at the time of his debut, which I peg at next August. That is pretty aggressive, but I think he's going to come on strong next year. I also think they'll put him in the 'pen at year's end due to innings/limited rotation space, and because he could be a huge playoff weapon there. I think he'll dominate AA until late June, get bumped, and have a strong enough run in Pawtucket to justify promotion. ROY 2018. Edit: can't wait to see his pitch f/x out of the bullpen. With Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, and maybe Kopech, that's four guys in the bullpen sitting 96-100. All the more reason to...BRING BACK KOJI! “I like to throw up and in,” he said. “The name of the game is disrupting hitters’ timing and making them uncomfortable. The No. 1 thing to make a hitter uncomfortable is 98 at the shoulders. I’m not necessarily trying to hit anybody, but if they don’t get out of the way, I don’t think it’s my fault.” I love this guy already. Seriously.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2016 16:55:43 GMT -5
Its Kopechs mechanics that lead to a bad secondary pitch, not the pitch itself. He has + stuff as is, but he hardly ever takes a straight path to the plate often ending early and late on the first. You combine that with his lack of effort off the back foot on the drive and it means his arm will be crossing over his front foot or releasing early leading to the lack of spin or missing location altogether. He is so close to excellence, and it takes the work ethic on the smallest of things for him to make it happen. Consistent mechanics, as you say, will improve the quality and consistency of his stuff. In my own experience with athletics, mechanics really get the short-shrift in terms of attention. I really wish I'd spent a lot more time on them instead of strength/endurance training. The gains in efficiency of good mechanics more than offset the "loss" of time on other things. If Kopech can start thinking more of his connection to the ground, his stride and drive, I think it'll go a long way towards a more consistent arm path and release.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2016 17:44:23 GMT -5
A comparison of his Salem and AFL numbers.
As mentioned in the AFL thread, both stints had a huge negative outlier in strike % and BB% as the next to last outing, followed by an outing with much harder contact allowed than average. I think deepjohn's hypothesis that these represent a pair of dead-arm periods of some sort is hard to rebut.
Now, they are not be ignored, but including them in a direct comparison would be a huge distortion, because they represent 11% of his Salem stint but 39% of his AFL stint. He got the apparent dead arm after 917 pitches over 51.2 innings, had 37 days of rest, then threw 214 innings over 16 innings before having it reoccur. Furthermore, in the AFL he was able to go 5 innings in his final game, versus 2.1 in his final Salem game (the playoff).
The main comparison:
IP BF ERA FIP BA OBP SA K% Kc% BB% BABIP Str% 51.3 197 1.23 1.21 .144 .269 .174 .411 .071 .122 .279 .623 16.0 57 1.69 1.58 .196 .211 .304 .368 .211 .018 .294 .706
About what you'd expect given the better hitters he's facing, until you look at the immense improvement in Strike%, walk rate, and called strikeout rate.
A batted ball comparison. Air% is OF-FB% plus LD%. FB% excludes popups. The final four columns are BABIPs in each batted ball type.
GB% Air% FB% LD% PU% G-B A-B F-B L-B .453 .477 .314 .163 .174 .231 .341 .222 .571 .457 .486 .171 .314 .057 .313 .313 .000 .455 GB rate was unchanged. A lot more of his balls in the air were scored as line drives, but the BABIP on both went down. I wouldn't read too much into that.
Now, the comparison of the the two pairs of final games. You'll see right away whey they need to be separated.
IP BF ERA FIP BA OBP SA K% Kc% BB% BABIP Str% GB% 3.0 24 36.00 12.53 .400 .625 .600 .250 .083 .292 .625 .500 .333 8.3 37 2.16 6.08 .250 .432 .429 .216 .108 .189 .316 .581 .250
I've added GB% to the main stats, as the big drop is another indicator that the two pairs of games represent the same phenomenon, and a different one than their predecessors.
You can assess the overall improvement by re-weighting his AFL performance by the ratio of live-to-dead that he had at Salem. That means taking just 18.8% of the two AFL dead-arm games and adding them to the preceding.
IP BF ERA FIP BA OBP SA K% Kc% BB% BABIP Str% GB% PU% 54.3 221 3.15 1.21 .165 .308 .209 .394 .072 .140 .309 .609 .442 .168 17.7 64 1.74 2.07 .202 .235 .317 .352 .199 .036 .296 .692 .435 .062 The Salem Strike% would have ranked 336th out of 382 MLB pitchers this year (minimum 30 IP). The .692 would be tied for 11th (with Bartolo Colon).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 20, 2016 1:09:51 GMT -5
Kopech after this final game in AFL will be right around 85 innings total for the year.
Next year I could see a jump from 110-130 innings (depending on how far the Sox go and if they reach the postseason and throw Kopech in the bullpen by the end of the year).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2016 13:18:00 GMT -5
Kopech after this final game in AFL will be right around 85 innings total for the year. Next year I could see a jump from 110-130 innings (depending on how far the Sox go and if they reach the postseason and throw Kopech in the bullpen by the end of the year). It was 83.0 IP, when you include the Salem playoff game and the AFL All-Star game. If in 2018 he's good enough to be a frontline starter, I had an outside-the-box thought as to how to get him into the rotation without burning too many innings. Use a 6-man rotation and have him pitch on 6 days rest, and work the other 5 guys in around him. He could pitch every Sunday*, which is something teams used to do with old veterans. He'd pitch about 150 innings that way. *I'd be tempted to use Wright on Saturday whenever possible ... even if there's no post-knuckleball effect, wouldn't that be fun to watch?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 6, 2016 13:49:10 GMT -5
From fangraphs:
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