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Post by bighead on Jan 5, 2013 8:29:11 GMT -5
Now that we've seen the impact the new CBA has had on free agency it seems more and more likely that Ellsbury plays the full season for the Sox. Any team trading for him at the deadline would already know that he is a playoff drive rental because he is a Boras client lowering his trade value. Add to that the fact that he cannot be made a qualifying offer by the acquiring team because he did not spend the full season with that club. That would seem to lower his value even more since the acquiring club wouldn't be able to recoup the draft pick to partially offset the loss of minor league talent in the trade.
Now more than ever, the best time to move a player in his type of situation is a year and a half away from free agency. The acquiring team would get two playoff drives out of the player and potentially draft pick compensation. At this point from a Sox perspective his value is maximized by keeping him the full season and giving him a qualifying offer. Odds are he'll be here at season's end if he opens the season with the club. The Sox should have tried to move him right after the Punto trade before he was missing time due to injury.
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Post by jdb on Jan 5, 2013 9:52:47 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see what type of value he has at the deadline if we are out of it. If he is close to his career averages I think somebody will give up more than we get back the following draft. There were some good young players traded at the deadline last year. T Joseph, Nate Eovaldi, Arodys VIzcaino the Brewers got a decent package for Grienkie and the Cubs had a trade fall through for Randall Delgado. I know how valuable draft picks are but come next December I would love to have trade chips to go after Stanton or Price and not gut the farm. (assuming we are out come July)
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 5, 2013 13:41:19 GMT -5
Now that we've seen the impact the new CBA has had on free agency it seems more and more likely that Ellsbury plays the full season for the Sox. Any team trading for him at the deadline would already know that he is a playoff drive rental because he is a Boras client lowering his trade value. Add to that the fact that he cannot be made a qualifying offer by the acquiring team because he did not spend the full season with that club. That would seem to lower his value even more since the acquiring club wouldn't be able to recoup the draft pick to partially offset the loss of minor league talent in the trade. Now more than ever, the best time to move a player in his type of situation is a year and a half away from free agency. The acquiring team would get two playoff drives out of the player and potentially draft pick compensation. At this point from a Sox perspective his value is maximized by keeping him the full season and giving him a qualifying offer. Odds are he'll be here at season's end if he opens the season with the club. The Sox should have tried to move him right after the Punto trade before he was missing time due to injury.Ellsbury suffered his injury way before the Punto trade was being discussed. The Punto trade was post-trade deadline, even if the Red Sox wanted to deal Ellsbury it's questionable whether he would've passed through waivers. For the sake of discussion, let's assume he would've been able to be traded. If dealing him now constitutes a sell low, dealing him last August would've too. He was coming off a significant injury and not playing effectively at that point. I don't see how dealing him late last August would've given him significantly more value than this offseason, where the Red Sox reportedly never came close to considering a deal. If we're playing the hindsight game, the clear time to deal him would've been after 2011. Ellsbury is either going to have an elite year (which would put him in position for a top of the market deal and probably give him trade value > the comp pick) or have a decent/injury plagued year and be in position to take a pillow contract to reestablish value. He can't simply put up his career averages or less next year and command some huge deal, people speak on the market but Michael Bourn had a great recent track record and is still sitting there. Ellsbury is looking at BJ Upton money without a monster 2013 season imo. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 5, 2013 16:37:50 GMT -5
Now that we've seen the impact the new CBA has had on free agency it seems more and more likely that Ellsbury plays the full season for the Sox. Any team trading for him at the deadline would already know that he is a playoff drive rental because he is a Boras client lowering his trade value. Add to that the fact that he cannot be made a qualifying offer by the acquiring team because he did not spend the full season with that club. That would seem to lower his value even more since the acquiring club wouldn't be able to recoup the draft pick to partially offset the loss of minor league talent in the trade. Now more than ever, the best time to move a player in his type of situation is a year and a half away from free agency. The acquiring team would get two playoff drives out of the player and potentially draft pick compensation. At this point from a Sox perspective his value is maximized by keeping him the full season and giving him a qualifying offer. Odds are he'll be here at season's end if he opens the season with the club. The Sox should have tried to move him right after the Punto trade before he was missing time due to injury. I agree that a player has more value 1.5 years before they are a FA but you must take into account that this is value for the receiving team and doesn't account for the value loss to the team trading the player (which is one reason more value is required for the trade). Also, please keep in mind that the trade is made based on perceived value and not actual value. If Ellsbury's perceived value is that of an injury prone .750 OPS hitter at last year's trade deadline, then if he has an MVP first half this year, and the Red Sox are out of contention, then the value of the return from trading him will likely be much higher than if they had traded him at least year's trade deadline. Beasley already addressed the other issues. To sum it up: you are correct - but only in a vacuum. |
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