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Post by soxpatsceltics on Aug 15, 2016 21:00:41 GMT -5
The Reds are in an interesting situation. They are obviously sellers, and will be for the foreseeable future, but they have some nice pieces that match up well with the Red Sox, considering our specific needs. Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, and Joey Votto are the obvious pieces.
Bailey reminds me a lot of Rick Porcello as a pitcher, and over the next 4 years, he pretty much has the same contract as Porcello (4/88). The last year is a 25 million dollar mutual option making it really a reasonable 3/63 deal. But Bailey is no world beater, and he has publicly been critical of the Reds in recent years, including when they dealt Bruce at the deadline. Bailey doesn't really fit their rebuild, but he could be a great 3rd or 4th starter for the Red Sox. Because of that, it's entirely plausible that he has negative value and has already cleared waivers. If the Reds eat some money, I would be very interested and a bad contract swap (Bailey for Pablo+ lottery ticket prospects) makes sense too.
Price
Porcello
Wright
Bailey
Pomeranz
Is a pretty solid rotation that is locked up through 2018.
DeSclafani is a much more valuable asset. 4 years of control, and he looks like he's at least a solid #4 for the foreseeable future. E-Rod+Shaw+Basabe could be enough to acquire him. The Reds have a lot of holes on their roster, and they may value quantity over quality. On the other hand, their farm, while it has some nice pieces, including Senzel and Stephenson, really lacks a star prospect that projects as a 60+ value guy. Devers is tough to give up, but I would be comfortable giving up a package centered around him for DeSclafani.
And then of course, there is Joey Votto, who almost makes too much sense for the Sox as a Ortiz replacement at 1B/DH, providing lefty power and OBP skills to the middle of the lineup. I have no idea what a package for him would look like, but seeing that he has already been shopped this summer, I would put serious consideration into acquiring him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 15, 2016 21:10:41 GMT -5
Welcome to the forum!! We have a trade sub forum to post trade ideas there. Unless a trade has been made we try to keep speculation out of the main board.
Welcome aboard!!
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 15, 2016 22:46:39 GMT -5
Joey Votto is owed $179 million after this year and has a full no-trade clause. I would not put any consideration into acquiring him.
What does DeSclafani improve for us, if you see him as a #4 starter? Don't we have at least five #1-4 starters under team control for the next two years? Seems like a waste of resources.
Same argument for Bailey, only he is owed $68 million after this year for the next three years. Sure, if you're talking about a Bailey for Sandoval+ swap of assets, I might be interested, but otherwise I fail to see the value of trading for a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming off TJ, with a (potentially) horrific contract.
I just don't see the need for these particular players.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 16, 2016 9:06:40 GMT -5
So, you would kick E-Rod and his favorable contract and much upside off the rotation?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 16, 2016 11:14:56 GMT -5
The Reds are in an interesting situation. They are obviously sellers, and will be for the foreseeable future, but they have some nice pieces that match up well with the Red Sox, considering our specific needs. Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, and Joey Votto are the obvious pieces. Bailey reminds me a lot of Rick Porcello as a pitcher, and over the next 4 years, he pretty much has the same contract as Porcello (4/88). The last year is a 25 million dollar mutual option making it really a reasonable 3/63 deal. But Bailey is no world beater, and he has publicly been critical of the Reds in recent years, including when they dealt Bruce at the deadline. Bailey doesn't really fit their rebuild, but he could be a great 3rd or 4th starter for the Red Sox. Because of that, it's entirely plausible that he has negative value and has already cleared waivers. If the Reds eat some money, I would be very interested and a bad contract swap (Bailey for Pablo+ lottery ticket prospects) makes sense too. Price Porcello Wright Bailey Pomeranz Is a pretty solid rotation that is locked up through 2018. DeSclafani is a much more valuable asset. 4 years of control, and he looks like he's at least a solid #4 for the foreseeable future. E-Rod+Shaw+Basabe could be enough to acquire him. The Reds have a lot of holes on their roster, and they may value quantity over quality. On the other hand, their farm, while it has some nice pieces, including Senzel and Stephenson, really lacks a star prospect that projects as a 60+ value guy. Devers is tough to give up, but I would be comfortable giving up a package centered around him for DeSclafani. And then of course, there is Joey Votto, who almost makes too much sense for the Sox as a Ortiz replacement at 1B/DH, providing lefty power and OBP skills to the middle of the lineup. I have no idea what a package for him would look like, but seeing that he has already been shopped this summer, I would put serious consideration into acquiring him. Rodriguez alone for DeSclafani makes no sense. Rodriguez is three years younger, a lefty, and has more upside. Their career numbers are almost identical, and Rodriguez has done it in the AL. His numbers this year are skewed by the injury, but since coming back up from AAA his ERA is under 3, with solid peripherals. He's already better than "a solid#4." Throwing in other valuable players is just nonsensical, especially a guy like Devers. You're not gaining any improvement in performance (and potentially losing some), and just throwing prospects away. Votto might be a good match, but his contract is bad (mostly based on length, through 2023, when he'll be 40), and could get awful quickly as his skills continue eroding. $22.5 a year is a lot to pay for a DH at age 40, unless it's Ortiz. Homer Bailey would have value as an escape from Sandoval's contract, but I doubt Cincy wants to take that on. But where do you pitch him? Who loses their rotation spot? It's not going to be Price, and certainly not Wright, or Porcello. And doubtfully Pomeranz. So Rodriguez? He's already better than Bailey, and costs essentially nothing. |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 16, 2016 19:08:16 GMT -5
DeSclafani is a much more valuable asset. 4 years of control, and he looks like he's at least a solid #4 for the foreseeable future. E-Rod+Shaw+Basabe could be enough to acquire him. The Reds have a lot of holes on their roster, and they may value quantity over quality. On the other hand, their farm, while it has some nice pieces, including Senzel and Stephenson, really lacks a star prospect that projects as a 60+ value guy. Devers is tough to give up, but I would be comfortable giving up a package centered around him for DeSclafani. Why on earth would you give up that much for a #4 pitcher? Erod is probably better than him already. |
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 20, 2016 22:02:32 GMT -5
Joey Votto is owed $179 million after this year and has a full no-trade clause. I would not put any consideration into acquiring him. What does DeSclafani improve for us, if you see him as a #4 starter? Don't we have at least five #1-4 starters under team control for the next two years? Seems like a waste of resources. Same argument for Bailey, only he is owed $68 million after this year for the next three years. Sure, if you're talking about a Bailey for Sandoval+ swap of assets, I might be interested, but otherwise I fail to see the value of trading for a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming off TJ, with a (potentially) horrific contract. I just don't see the need for these particular players. Almost always agree with everything am fox says, but here I respectfully think he may have written off Joey Votto a little too quickly. I realize the length and $ among of the contract are bad. But he is almost a perfect fit to replace Ortiz. He is left-handed, he gets on base as well as hits for some power. He would allow Hanley to move to DH. What if the Reds were to pay some of his salary? Or if we could include a bad contract like Castillo as part of the trade. We have some people who seem to be blocked - Owens, Swihart, Hernandez or Dubron. I suppose a decision to see whether a deal for Votto is possible depends on whether you want to use all your trade chips for Votto or save them for pitching. But getting Votto would lessen the blow of Ortiz retiring. I would hope that the GM would at least explore the possibility after the year ends. |
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 21, 2016 8:45:46 GMT -5
I'm sure they can explore the possibility, but Votto has a no-trade he has said he is unwilling to waive. Also, I'm not sure I want to move Hanley off 1B, full-time. He has performed reasonably well at the position and I would be concerned that, without the day-to-day engagement of playing in the infield, Hanley's production would wane.
I would guess that the cost of a Votto trade, even if he were to waive his no-trade, would be exorbitant. He is the face of the franchise, such as it is. Owens, Hernandez and Dubon don't have much value. Swihart would, especially given that he is a Cincinnati kid, but would not be nearly enough.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Sept 21, 2016 9:24:16 GMT -5
I'm sure they can explore the possibility, but Votto has a no-trade he has said he is unwilling to waive. Also, I'm not sure I want to move Hanley off 1B, full-time. He has performed reasonably well at the position and I would be concerned that, without the day-to-day engagement of playing in the infield, Hanley's production would wane. I would guess that the cost of a Votto trade, even if he were to waive his no-trade, would be exorbitant. He is the face of the franchise, such as it is. Owens, Hernandez and Dubon don't have much value. Swihart would, especially given that he is a Cincinnati kid, but would not be nearly enough. Swihart is from New Mexico. You may have been thinking about Benintendi, who is from Cincinnati. |
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 21, 2016 12:17:59 GMT -5
Right, my bad.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 21, 2016 12:34:52 GMT -5
2017 33yrs $22,000,000
2018 34yrs $25,000,000
2019 35yrs $25,000,000
2020 36yrs $25,000,000
2021 37yrs $25,000,000
2022 38yrs $25,000,000
2023 39yrs $25,000,000
2024 40yrs *$20,000,000 $20M Team Option, $7M Buyout
I don't see a trade happening that doesn't include Panda & Castillo
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 21, 2016 12:49:57 GMT -5
I think, at best, you get 3-4 more good offensive years out of Votto. Unfortunately, he has seven years left on his contract. Moreover, his defensive range appears to have dropped significantly this year. Even if you get past the no-trade, I just think trading for Votto is a bad idea.
I would much rather take my chances with Hanley splitting 1B/3B/DH with Shaw/Travis/Encarnacion/Sandoval, etc. and using our resources for the bullpen or extending Betts/Bogaerts, etc. than trading for a full-time 1B.
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