|
Post by DesignatedKyle on Aug 19, 2016 21:06:55 GMT -5
so..... does Rick have an outside chance at the Cy Young at this point? Feels weird even typing that but he's been great. I think if he gets to 20 to 22 wins, he has a shot. This year is a toss up since no one has really distanced themselves from the pack Exactly. I feel like this would be the year he'd be able to pull it off.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 19, 2016 21:13:18 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to the first time I see someone in one of these game threads summarize the day's events by saying "well, that was a really bad win."
EVERY win is a nice win.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 19, 2016 21:18:50 GMT -5
Exactly! In fact ANY win is a GREAT WIN!
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Aug 19, 2016 21:45:07 GMT -5
so..... does Rick have an outside chance at the Cy Young at this point? Feels weird even typing that but he's been great. I think if he goes on a nice run, finishes with 21 or 22 wins, and an ERA in the 2.8-2.95 range, he has a good chance. As it is, Kluber has put up a much better year outside of W%, Quintana and Sale too, and JA Happ has almost identical numbers as Porcello across the board (but a slightly lower ERA, and has been leading him by a W). For all of the acceptance of analytics (see Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke's Cy wins), with no clear front runner this year, it could easily come down to old-school.
|
|
|
Post by geostorm on Aug 19, 2016 22:30:49 GMT -5
There have been a lot of great surprises this year on this team, but Porcello has been the best feel good story for me. He has been excellent for us. ...as I'm reading this thread, now, I've some of the postgame shows playing in the background, something catches my ear, I look up, and on the screen is Fathead size pic of Rick Porcello on my TV, and to his right, a statbox titled "Back w/ a Vengeance", and the following - Rick Porcello Since 8/26/15 (33 starts) Record 21-7 ERA 3.18 Innings 222.1 BB/K 39/194 (Red Sox 23-10 in those starts) Cy Young or not...that'll pull the wagon perdy good
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,518
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 19, 2016 22:30:55 GMT -5
Chris Young is already in the 20-25 ABs range that JF said they'll looking for him to get and more on PAs. He's about to complete his 1st game without being pinch hit for in the later innings. Is he getting activated before the end if the week?
|
|
|
Post by telluricrook on Aug 19, 2016 23:49:37 GMT -5
There have been a lot of great surprises this year on this team, but Porcello has been the best feel good story for me. He has been excellent for us. ...as I'm reading this thread, now, I've some of the postgame shows playing in the background, something catches my ear, I look up, and on the screen is Fathead size pic of Rick Porcello on my TV, and to his right, a statbox titled "Back w/ a Vengeance", and the following - Rick Porcello Since 8/26/15 (33 starts) Record 21-7 ERA 3.18 Innings 222.1 BB/K 39/194 (Red Sox 23-10 in those starts) Cy Young or not...that'll pull the wagon perdy good His next three starts are @tb, TB, @oak . He could win all three of those and put up good numbers.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Aug 20, 2016 0:18:50 GMT -5
What a great day for baseball. Toronto lost, Baltimore lost, Sox win big. Really, we were the Yankees disbanding away from just a perfect evening.
|
|
|
Post by philarhody on Aug 20, 2016 0:21:18 GMT -5
Is it just me or does Michael Fulmer's elbow look ready to explode every time he pitches?
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Aug 20, 2016 6:56:09 GMT -5
Dare I say that Porcello is actually UNDERpaid?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2016 8:28:46 GMT -5
Team quality to date according to BaseRuns as calculated by FanGraphs:
.661 Cubs .625 Nats .623 Red Sox
After adjusting correctly for strength of schedule:
.646 Cubs .640 Red Sox .619 Nationals
When you consider the acquisition of Pomeranz, the turnarounds of E-Rod and Buchholz, Leon's breakout, and the addition of Benintendi, it seems to me that this is clearly the most talented team in MLB. Someone who's been following the Cubs may want to assess their roster for similar alterations, but I'd be surprised if they could match us.
Re the AL CY race: it's truly sad that BP's enormous effort at constructing a Deserved Run Average (modeling every type of play separately to determine the pitcher's contribution) doesn't come close to passing the smell test, because we do need a deeper analysis than bWAR. Here is BABIP, HR/FB, and the DRA contribution to Runs from balls in play (relative to average) for three Red Sox pitchers:
.276, 5.2%, Wright = +1.7 runs (yes, below average) .267, 11.2%, Porcello = +4.8 (worst figure among top 50 DRA) .327, 13.8%, Price = +2.6
They explicitly say that the figures I've quoted are answering the question "How hard does he get hit?" (plus a GDP skill contribution). That Steven Wright has been hit harder / fared worse on balls in play than the average MLB pitcher, and that Rick Porcello has been hit harder / fared worse on balls in play than David Price -- this is pure comedy.
|
|
|
Post by telluricrook on Aug 20, 2016 11:44:39 GMT -5
Dare I say that Porcello is actually UNDERpaid? Hmm, if he didnt accept that contract from the Red Sox before last season what kind of a contract do you think he would have gotten this past offseason?
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2016 11:51:00 GMT -5
Dare I say that Porcello is actually UNDERpaid? I would put it this way. Its not just that Porcello is pitching (really well) behind a great offensive team (all games), but he has been the beneficiary of great run support, I think Wright was the tough luck loser in games where he pitched really well. Would he rather be a great pitcher but without run support and end up with a so-so W-L record or a good pitcher with a great W-L record? i.e. a pretty good shot at 20+ this year. It must really suck for those great pitchers who just have bad luck on run support. Porcello should give us a discount because its such a pleasure pitching with a nice lead.
|
|
|
Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2016 11:56:14 GMT -5
What a great day for baseball. Toronto lost, Baltimore lost, Sox win big. Really, we were the Yankees disbanding away from just a perfect evening. I would be amused if we were to win the division (on the way a WS win) the yanks have a surge taking a WC berth, then lose in the playoffs on a weak pen
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Aug 20, 2016 12:52:51 GMT -5
Dare I say that Porcello is actually UNDERpaid? Hmm, if he didnt accept that contract from the Red Sox before last season what kind of a contract do you think he would have gotten this past offseason? If he was a free agent this offseason what contract do you think he would get?
|
|
|
Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 20, 2016 13:15:55 GMT -5
At least 6 years and some where between $125 and $150 million,with a player opt out after 3 years.
|
|
|
Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 20, 2016 13:23:57 GMT -5
Hoping it doesn't rain here in Detroit tonight and they can get this game in, although the young lefty the Tigers have pitching tonight could give the Red Sox some trouble. Wish Young was here to play Left tonight against him.
Given that the Sox are only a half game out of first and we are closing in on September, I am starting to wonder about September call ups. I assume if Koji, Young, and Hanigan are healthy, they will be activated - Young maybe even a few days before that. Who else could help? I am guessing that Vasquez gets called up, especially if Hanigan is not healthy, but probably even he is.
With Young back, that will give us another outfield option, but I still think they will call Brentz back in case there are a few games that a re blow outs and they want to give Betts or Bradley a few innings off.
I can see Kelly, Rameriz, and Elias being called up to help in the bullpen.
Maybe Hernandez gets called up to do in the infield what Brentz will do for the outfield.
I know everyone seems to want Moncada called up, but other than for a pinch runner role, I can't see him getting much time and I think there may be some disadvantage to the team from having his time in the majors start in September rather than some time next year. Maybe someone on the board has more information on that.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 20, 2016 13:46:23 GMT -5
Its almost as if Porcello has a much better contract than Lester, the people complaining about that trade should focus their wrath on the Lackey deal.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Aug 20, 2016 14:17:15 GMT -5
Its almost as if Porcello has a much better contract than Lester, the people complaining about that trade should focus their wrath on the Lackey deal. I'm not sure I've seen people complaining about the Lester trade. They complain about not resigning him during the following offseason, which was theoretically doable. Imagine a rotation with Lester and Porcello!
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Aug 20, 2016 14:29:21 GMT -5
Its almost as if Porcello has a much better contract than Lester, the people complaining about that trade should focus their wrath on the Lackey deal. I'm not sure I've seen people complaining about the Lester trade. They complain about not resigning him during the following offseason, which was theoretically doable. Imagine a rotation with Lester and Porcello! Which likely would not have been possible.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 20, 2016 14:46:57 GMT -5
That Toronto loss had to be crushing. Two home runs in bottom of ninth, the second one an inside the park job. Against the closer. We've been there.
|
|
|
Post by a2sox on Aug 20, 2016 20:05:17 GMT -5
Living in Detroit area. IMHO Detroit's FOX announcers as good/objective as any in the game.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 20, 2016 20:12:14 GMT -5
Will they ever solve the bases loaded, no outs, bugaboo?
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 20, 2016 20:13:42 GMT -5
damn. it's one thing to score only one run with the bases loaded and the bottom of the order up, but mookie, Hanley and JBF. That hurts.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 20, 2016 20:16:09 GMT -5
Living in Detroit area. IMHO Detroit's FOX announcers as good/objective as any in the game. I listened to them yesterday. Seemed to me they called the game like there's 162 of them a year -- slow and easy. I'd take them over our crew (sans Eck) any day.
|
|