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8/29-8/31 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by pedey on Aug 30, 2016 21:30:42 GMT -5
I'll never understand why you can use Kimbrel in the 9th but not in the 8th. It's baseball insanity. It's a leverage index of 1.86 vs. 0.70. Couldn't agree more. I hate the save statistic. Use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situation.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 30, 2016 21:32:20 GMT -5
Interesting stat on NESN game review (which was published within seconds after the end - I swear they can write it before it ends, because the Sox losing efforts are so predictable)
Pomeranz in all innings but his last - 2.15 ERA over 46 IP In his last inning of his starts - 21.60 ERA
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 30, 2016 21:33:16 GMT -5
This reminds is why Jonny Gomes was so awesome. Such a clutch hitter. Why is Buchholz still pitching in the pen? I currently don't have cable, but every time check the scores, when he pitches in relief, he gives up a run. Why is he being used? This team would be far in first place if Lovullo was managing. Farrell is simply a terrible manager who got lucky in 2013. THIS - Farrell is simply a terrible manager who got lucky in 2013. Period.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2016 21:34:19 GMT -5
This reminds is why Jonny Gomes was so awesome. Such a clutch hitter. Why is Buchholz still pitching in the pen? I currently don't have cable, but every time check the scores, when he pitches in relief, he gives up a run. Why is he being used? This team would be far in first place if Lovullo was managing. Farrell is simply a terrible manager who got lucky in 2013. THIS - Farrell is simply a terrible manager who got lucky in 2013. Period. 461-461 in his career after tonight. Small sample size, though.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 30, 2016 21:35:36 GMT -5
I would've fired Farrell after that horrific June.
Sox are now 8-7 versus Tampa, a 56-75 team. And they inexplicably continue to pitch to Longoria in close or tied games.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 30, 2016 21:38:06 GMT -5
I'll never understand why you can use Kimbrel in the 9th but not in the 8th. It's baseball insanity. It's a leverage index of 1.86 vs. 0.70. Couldn't agree more. I hate the save statistic. Use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situation. Not disagreeing with you here, but perhaps you should review Kimbrel's non-save performances to date.
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Post by braziliansox on Aug 30, 2016 21:40:17 GMT -5
While it was fine in theory to let Pomeranz finish the inning against the bottom of the order, he really looked tired, His fastball wasnt even touching 90 mph anymore and he was starting to hang his curveballs. He is probably tired as this is his carrer high in innings already.
And it really wouldnt kill us to have him pitch only 5 or 6 innings per outing since Price, Porcello and Wright pitch so many innings to make up for it, its much better than letting him blow game after game.
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Post by station13 on Aug 30, 2016 21:58:54 GMT -5
If it weren't for Betts/Papi and Porcello, I would have stop watching a long time ago.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 30, 2016 22:05:07 GMT -5
If we miss the playoffs, Farrell has to be gone, right?
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 30, 2016 22:11:51 GMT -5
If we miss the playoffs, Farrell has to be gone, right? Farrell is gone with anything other than a WS win. Book it.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 30, 2016 22:19:25 GMT -5
“@jmastrodonato: Brad Ziegler was not available tonight. Left the park. He has the flu.”
FIRE FARRELL!!!!
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 30, 2016 22:39:15 GMT -5
While I certainly wouldn't object to replacing John Farrell with a better manager, the larger problem is really that the bullpen just isn't that good. Last off-season, the "plan" was that the Red Sox would, like the Royals and the Yankees, use their power bullpen to turn games in to six inning affairs, and the Red Sox FO invested a fair amount into making that happen. Unfortunately the current reality doesn't look much like the plan.
What makes it worse is that Uehara and Tazawa (and Ziegler) will likely not be back next year, and there's really no way of knowing whether the Red Sox will get anything out of Carson Smith. That leaves only Craig Kimbrel as a genuinely reliable reliever in 2017, and while he's still very good, there is also genuine concern that he is no longer the closer he was in 2012 through 2014 (despite the high strikeout numbers).
I don't like to think about what Dave Dombrowski is likely to give up this off-season to fix the mess he failed to fix this season.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2016 23:20:18 GMT -5
In August, the Sox are 24-5 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning the game. They have gone 16-13.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 30, 2016 23:27:54 GMT -5
In August, the Sox are 24-5 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning the game. They have gone 16-13. We chokers.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 30, 2016 23:34:46 GMT -5
I don't understand why some teams don't believe in spending money on a bullpen. Dombroski made one move in offseason Carson Smith. With that pitching motion that everyone said was gonna hurt him. So he put all his eggs in one pitcher. Koi is 41 and Taz who arm I s falling off by the way Farrell uses them.
The beginning of the year coming back to haunt the Sox.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2016 23:38:16 GMT -5
While I certainly wouldn't object to replacing John Farrell with a better manager, the larger problem is really that the bullpen just isn't that good. Last off-season, the "plan" was that the Red Sox would, like the Royals and the Yankees, use their power bullpen to turn games in to six inning affairs, and the Red Sox FO invested a fair amount into making that happen. Unfortunately the current reality doesn't look much like the plan. What makes it worse is that Uehara and Tazawa (and Ziegler) will likely not be back next year, and there's really no way of knowing whether the Red Sox will get anything out of Carson Smith. That leaves only Craig Kimbrel as a genuinely reliable reliever in 2017, and while he's still very good, there is also genuine concern that he is no longer the closer he was in 2012 through 2014 (despite the high strikeout numbers). I don't like to think about what Dave Dombrowski is likely to give up this off-season to fix the mess he failed to fix this season. Coming into tonight, the Sox bullpen was 11th in SIERA, 15th in xFIP-, and 14th in ERA-. It has been average or a bit better -- until you distribute those performances across the situations they happened in. Then it's the 20th best bullpen (by Win Probability Added), and after tonight it'll be the 21st. They rank 27th in FanGraph's measure of Clutch, which is driven more by who the manager chooses to pitch in which situation than by the individual clutch performances. The starting pitchers, meanwhile, rank 30th in Clutch, by a wide margin which will go up after tonight. That's Farrell's slow hooks. The starters rank 8th in ERA- but 14th in WPA (13th in both SIERA and xFIP-). The staff as a whole is -5.5 wins in Clutch (ranking 29th), except that the average team is +1.7, so it's really -7.2. That can be pretty fairly pinned on the manager. They came into today at -8.1 wins of Win Efficiency, and a few days ago I calculated the offensive clutch at -1.1. So that adds up very well. You can talk about the bullpen being not great, and this is true, but if we were 5 games up on the Jays no one would be concerned.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 31, 2016 5:52:18 GMT -5
Eric this is a great post. It confirms what many suspected but didn't know how to quantify.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2016 7:17:10 GMT -5
While I certainly wouldn't object to replacing John Farrell with a better manager, the larger problem is really that the bullpen just isn't that good. Last off-season, the "plan" was that the Red Sox would, like the Royals and the Yankees, use their power bullpen to turn games in to six inning affairs, and the Red Sox FO invested a fair amount into making that happen. Unfortunately the current reality doesn't look much like the plan. What makes it worse is that Uehara and Tazawa (and Ziegler) will likely not be back next year, and there's really no way of knowing whether the Red Sox will get anything out of Carson Smith. That leaves only Craig Kimbrel as a genuinely reliable reliever in 2017, and while he's still very good, there is also genuine concern that he is no longer the closer he was in 2012 through 2014 (despite the high strikeout numbers). I don't like to think about what Dave Dombrowski is likely to give up this off-season to fix the mess he failed to fix this season. Coming into tonight, the Sox bullpen was 11th in SIERA, 15th in xFIP-, and 14th in ERA-. It has been average or a bit better -- until you distribute those performances across the situations they happened in. Then it's the 20th best bullpen (by Win Probability Added), and after tonight it'll be the 21st. They rank 27th in FanGraph's measure of Clutch, which is driven more by who the manager chooses to pitch in which situation than by the individual clutch performances. The starting pitchers, meanwhile, rank 30th in Clutch, by a wide margin which will go up after tonight. That's Farrell's slow hooks. The starters rank 8th in ERA- but 14th in WPA (13th in both SIERA and xFIP-). The staff as a whole is -5.5 wins in Clutch (ranking 29th), except that the average team is +1.7, so it's really -7.2. That can be pretty fairly pinned on the manager. They came into today at -8.1 wins of Win Efficiency, and a few days ago I calculated the offensive clutch at -1.1. So that adds up very well. You can talk about the bullpen being not great, and this is true, but if we were 5 games up on the Jays no one would be concerned. Excellent post. However aren't you blurring cause and effect just a little? First, the bullpen stats are for the whole year; I don't think they really reflect the current state of the bullpen. When Carson Smith went down, this bullpen became vulnerable to its limited durability. That has shown up in the second half of the season. The Red Sox have the second fewest bullpen innings in the AL in part because Farrell is trying to squeeze extra innings out of the starters, because of lack of confidence in the bullpen. None of this is to suggest that Farrell couldn't be doing a better job or that he shouldn't be replaced, just that the problem goes beyond Farrell.
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Post by sox207 on Aug 31, 2016 7:19:13 GMT -5
I'll never understand why you can use Kimbrel in the 9th but not in the 8th. It's baseball insanity. It's a leverage index of 1.86 vs. 0.70. Couldn't agree more. I hate the save statistic. Use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situation. Yup. Also blows my mind(I realize Ziggy was unavailable) that Farrell wants Clay to be the 8th inning guy when Bannister basically publicly trashed that idea.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 31, 2016 7:26:43 GMT -5
Is that something that happened? Because if so, it blows my mind that a team's assistant pitching coach would have the testicular fortitude to publicly trash a manager's decision like that.
It's pretty amazing how there's a group that seems to want to attribute all of the pitching staff's successes to Bannister and failures to Farrell and Willis. I think a big part of it is that Bannister is the best interview of the group, so we get a lot of perspective and people start to identify with him.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Aug 31, 2016 7:30:11 GMT -5
In August, the Sox are 24-5 at being the first team to establish a 75% chance of winning the game. They have gone 16-13. Nothing like an AM soul stinger.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,018
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Post by nomar on Aug 31, 2016 7:40:51 GMT -5
Is that something that happened? Because if so, it blows my mind that a team's assistant pitching coach would have the testicular fortitude to publicly trash a manager's decision like that. It's pretty amazing how there's a group that seems to want to attribute all of the pitching staff's successes to Bannister and failures to Farrell and Willis. I think a big part of it is that Bannister is the best interview of the group, so we get a lot of perspective and people start to identify with him. Nobody is batting 1000, and you can't really polish Boston's pen that much no matter who you are. The only problem that I see as definitively correctable is the timing of when you use relievers. Although in last nights game, my only gripe was really that Buchholz was in the 8th after throwing 29 pitches the night before. In the playoffs, at least we'll have Pomeranz or Rodriguez out of the pen, Uehara will be back, and maybe an unlikely bullpen hero will arise in September.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2016 7:56:44 GMT -5
There is nothing more infuriating than outplaying a team for 7 innings, then losing it in the final two. I don't recall a Red Sox team that has frustrated me more than this one. It sucks having the offense, the starting rotation, and the closer to make a deep run, but a lack of two reliable set up men is going to keep this team from doing anything in the postseason. Heck, it might keep them out of the postseason altogether.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 31, 2016 8:36:51 GMT -5
What a bummer the end of games are for Boston.
It's almost predictable at this point.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Aug 31, 2016 8:43:18 GMT -5
Here's to hoping Kyle Martin and Chandler Shepherd guide our bullpen to better times. Doesn't hurt to be optimistic.
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