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9/30-10/2 Red Sox vs. Toronto Series Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 17:53:21 GMT -5
Texas and Cleveland did what they needed the last couple of series to get into better playoff positioning. Too bad the Red Sox couldn't. They just really looked deflated the last few games. No energy. No urgency. So to Cleveland we go, stumbling on the way there. Hopefully this team can wake up. The team I've watched the last six games doesn't have a prayer against any playoff opponent. They lost a game in NYC because the manager left his $30M pitcher in way too long, but I think even JF realizes you need a very short hook in the post-season. Although admittedly Francona left Beckett in way too long in Game 6 of the 2008 ALCS, and he was in theory in possession of an analysis that said that Beckett almost never recovered to be effective in the long run after he was hit hard early. (If I'd thought of it and if I'd gotten to his book signing earlier, I would have loved to ask him if that info had been passed on. I just thought of asking him now!) They lost another game in NYC because they went 2/6 on line drives and their closer imploded because of an "easily fixable" problem (cross your fingers). They then lost two 1-run games, including one that was tied when the easily fixable problem reared its head again. Oh, and performance after you've clinched has absolutely no predictive power at all.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 2, 2016 18:02:19 GMT -5
Went from a juggernaut team to a team limping into the postseason. At least Cleveland's SP is beaten up. Another way to look at it: The Red Sox went 19-8 in September to win the division. They have basically the same record at home and on the road this year. Everything's okay.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2016 18:04:15 GMT -5
It's certainly not the end of the world, but punting the home field advantage in a series isn't exactly a good thing, and that could come back to haunt them in the ALDS.
I'm disappointed the Red Sox took all the fun (at least for me) out of the clinching and wish they hadn't blown the home field advantage. The Red Sox are almost as good a road team as they are a home team but the Indians are far better at home than they are on the road, so the Sox did them a favor there. Between getting swept by a down and out Yankees team and losing 2 out of 3 at home to the Jays it's been kind of a disappointing week - again not the end of the world.
The Sox didn't exactly help themselves, but that doesn't mean they can't go out and win in the post-season, so I guess we'll see if HFA means anything here.
I can't say how much I enjoyed the Ortiz ceremony today. It was wonderful. He has been a joy to watch and it brought back memories for me of Yaz retiring in 1983 on the same exact Oct 2nd date. I loved seeing the championship teams of 04, 07, and 13 come onto the field.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2016 18:05:14 GMT -5
Went from a juggernaut team to a team limping into the postseason. At least Cleveland's SP is beaten up. Another way to look at it: The Red Sox went 19-8 in September to win the division. They have basically the same record at home and on the road this year. Everything's okay. True but the Indians are a much better team at home than on the road and now they get that potential extra game at home and they get the HFA to start the series so while it may not matter to the Sox much it definitely matters to the Indians a lot.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 2, 2016 18:26:40 GMT -5
Another way to look at it: The Red Sox went 19-8 in September to win the division. They have basically the same record at home and on the road this year. Everything's okay. True but the Indians are a much better team at home than on the road and now they get that potential extra game at home and they get the HFA to start the series so while it may not matter to the Sox much it definitely matters to the Indians a lot. The indians rotation is also a mess. And we are one of the better road teams in all of baseball
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 2, 2016 19:30:13 GMT -5
Texas and Cleveland did what they needed the last couple of series to get into better playoff positioning. Too bad the Red Sox couldn't. They just really looked deflated the last few games. No energy. No urgency. So to Cleveland we go, stumbling on the way there. Hopefully this team can wake up. The team I've watched the last six games doesn't have a prayer against any playoff opponent. They lost a game in NYC because the manager left his $30M pitcher in way too long, but I think even JF realizes you need a very short hook in the post-season. Although admittedly Francona left Beckett in way too long in Game 6 of the 2008 ALCS, and he was in theory in possession of an analysis that said that Beckett almost never recovered to be effective in the long run after he was hit hard early. (If I'd thought of it and if I'd gotten to his book signing earlier, I would have loved to ask him if that info had been passed on. I just thought of asking him now!) They lost another game in NYC because they went 2/6 on line drives and their closer imploded because of an "easily fixable" problem (cross your fingers). They then lost two 1-run games, including one that was tied when the easily fixable problem reared its head again. Oh, and performance after you've clinched has absolutely no predictive power at all. I've always thought game 2 of that series was Tito's worst as RS manager. He left an obviously hurting Beckett in until 8 runs were in and we lost 9-8. His line: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER. www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810110.shtml
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 2, 2016 19:31:01 GMT -5
Being at home should help ERod and Clay, don't think pitching on the road will affect Price/Porcello.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 2, 2016 20:25:41 GMT -5
Good to be back in the playoffs again. Didn't need to win this one. Just need to win the last game of the playoffs.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2016 20:39:53 GMT -5
True but the Indians are a much better team at home than on the road and now they get that potential extra game at home and they get the HFA to start the series so while it may not matter to the Sox much it definitely matters to the Indians a lot. The indians rotation is also a mess. And we are one of the better road teams in all of baseball The Indians' rotation is a mess, but the Sox are hardly unbeatable beyond Porcello and Price and that's giving Price the benefit of the doubt. Look, on paper the Sox are a superior team, no doubt about it, but it's not that hard to imagine a scenario where the Sox don't beat up on the Indians' starters as badly as they would if they were playing at Fenway. And if the Indians keep it close the Sox might have an awful lot of Andrew Miller to deal with and I'd take the Indians' pen over the Sox pen. The point I was making is that playing three games out of five with the Indians' rotation a mess, I'd be more inclined to think that the Sox breeze, but I think playing in Cleveland changes things a lot more. I think when the Sox are on the road (and I'm sure anybody can give me a bunch of numbers to disprove this) they are more reliant on homers to score but when they're at Fenway, they're more likely to bang out doubles and string hits together to score, and I think the latter type of offense works better. On paper the Sox should beat the Indians, but I think this is going to be a lot closer than a lot of people here would anticipate. I'd hardly be surprised to see Cleveland prevail in 5 games, as in they split the games at each ballpark and Cleveland uses their HFA to win a close Game 5. Or maybe the Sox do blow away the Indians and their banged up starting pitching. The Sox offense has been kind of sluggish the past few weeks. Maybe they snap out of it?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2016 20:41:48 GMT -5
Being at home should help ERod and Clay, don't think pitching on the road will affect Price/Porcello. Perhaps, and I can see where it helps Price the most, but Porcello has been nearly unbeatable at home
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2016 20:43:01 GMT -5
They lost a game in NYC because the manager left his $30M pitcher in way too long, but I think even JF realizes you need a very short hook in the post-season. Although admittedly Francona left Beckett in way too long in Game 6 of the 2008 ALCS, and he was in theory in possession of an analysis that said that Beckett almost never recovered to be effective in the long run after he was hit hard early. (If I'd thought of it and if I'd gotten to his book signing earlier, I would have loved to ask him if that info had been passed on. I just thought of asking him now!) They lost another game in NYC because they went 2/6 on line drives and their closer imploded because of an "easily fixable" problem (cross your fingers). They then lost two 1-run games, including one that was tied when the easily fixable problem reared its head again. Oh, and performance after you've clinched has absolutely no predictive power at all. I've always thought game 2 of that series was Tito's worst as RS manager. He left an obviously hurting Beckett in until 8 runs were in and we lost 9-8. His line: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER. www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810110.shtmlI agree wholeheartedly. I remember thinking, "Please get Beckett out of there so we have a chance to win.". They lost in extras that game with a cooked Timlin taking the loss.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2016 21:37:02 GMT -5
They lost a game in NYC because the manager left his $30M pitcher in way too long, but I think even JF realizes you need a very short hook in the post-season. Although admittedly Francona left Beckett in way too long in Game 6 of the 2008 ALCS, and he was in theory in possession of an analysis that said that Beckett almost never recovered to be effective in the long run after he was hit hard early. (If I'd thought of it and if I'd gotten to his book signing earlier, I would have loved to ask him if that info had been passed on. I just thought of asking him now!) They lost another game in NYC because they went 2/6 on line drives and their closer imploded because of an "easily fixable" problem (cross your fingers). They then lost two 1-run games, including one that was tied when the easily fixable problem reared its head again. Oh, and performance after you've clinched has absolutely no predictive power at all. I've always thought game 2 of that series was Tito's worst as RS manager. He left an obviously hurting Beckett in until 8 runs were in and we lost 9-8. His line: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER. www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200810110.shtmlAnd of course that's the game I meant -- he was fine in game 6. Furthermore, according to the date stamp on the spreadsheet, I'm wrong about having done this "Beckett Hammered Early" analysis while still working for the team. I shared everyone else's horror at game 2 as it happened, and then the next year Tito kept on leaving him after he'd been hit hard early, and that's when I did the study. IIRC, I e-mailed it to the team, but that was August (in '09 I was still doing that with the occasional tidbit I found useful). Hence my altered memory. But my wife wasn't diabetic. You don't think I know my own wife? The funny thing about that study: he had been hit hard early 4 times by the Orioles in '07 through '09, and every time he'd settled down and pitched really well. Against everyone else, he'd been hit hard 17 times and had settled down and pitched well 3 times. Could that really be random?
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Post by bigpupp on Oct 3, 2016 9:09:48 GMT -5
Being at home should help ERod and Clay, don't think pitching on the road will affect Price/Porcello. I don't disagree with your whole statement, but ERod has been much worse at home than on the road this year.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 3, 2016 11:21:32 GMT -5
I think it's worth noting that, with the regular season concluded, there is one qualified hitter in the major leagues this year with an OPS over 1.0.
It's David Ortiz.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 3, 2016 16:24:21 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see if they leave Brock Holt in the two hole playing 3B and keep Mookie hitting 3rd instead of 4th. I like having Mookie hit in front of Papi because then Papi can clog the bases for Hanley instead of Mookie. And then Hanley will barely have any opportunities to make a baserunning mistake. I also am really interested in who the backup catcher is. I think it should be Vazquez and would not be surprised if he's a better option to start at some point, but I expect JF to have a really slow hook there. But that call is probably made primarily by who calls the better game and we don't have a lot of info on that.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2016 22:03:28 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see if they leave Brock Holt in the two hole playing 3B and keep Mookie hitting 3rd instead of 4th. I like having Mookie hit in front of Papi because then Papi can clog the bases for Hanley instead of Mookie. And then Hanley will barely have any opportunities to make a baserunning mistake. I also am really interested in who the backup catcher is. I think it should be Vazquez and would not be surprised if he's a better option to start at some point, but I expect JF to have a really slow hook there. But that call is probably made primarily by who calls the better game and we don't have a lot of info on that. I pray that someone from the F.O. explains to JF that fixing the R/L imbalance in the lineup by hitting Holt 2nd literally makes as much sense as doing so by hitting Ortiz 9th. The analytic Internet will explode in deserved mockery if the manager of one of the two best offenses of the last 20 or so years bats the team's one below-average hitter in the spot where the best hitter is supposed to hit. Pedroia Betts Ortiz Ramirez Benintendi / Bogaerts (vs L) Bogaerts / Young (vs L) Bradley Catcher Holt / Shaw Or you could put Bogaerts back to 2 and have Benintendi / Bradley 6 & 7. If they bring in a LHR for Benny, they get Young.
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Post by bookiemetts on Oct 4, 2016 0:03:34 GMT -5
I pray that someone from the F.O. explains to JF that fixing the R/L imbalance in the lineup by hitting Holt 2nd literally makes as much sense as doing so by hitting Ortiz 9th. The analytic Internet will explode in deserved mockery if the manager of one of the two best offenses of the last 20 or so years bats the team's one below-average hitter in the spot where the best hitter is supposed to hit. Pedroia Betts Ortiz Ramirez Benintendi / Bogaerts (vs L) Bogaerts / Young (vs L) Bradley Catcher Holt / Shaw Or you could put Bogaerts back to 2 and have Benintendi / Bradley 6 & 7. If they bring in a LHR for Benny, they get Young. I like that lineup a lot actually. If JF insists on putting a lefty in that 2 spot why not JBJ or Benintendi? Even though I like Brock a lot, they're just better hitters than him and you can't really debate it. They are also good baserunners so it's not like you can make that argument for Holt either.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 4, 2016 0:37:55 GMT -5
I pray that someone from the F.O. explains to JF that fixing the R/L imbalance in the lineup by hitting Holt 2nd literally makes as much sense as doing so by hitting Ortiz 9th. The analytic Internet will explode in deserved mockery if the manager of one of the two best offenses of the last 20 or so years bats the team's one below-average hitter in the spot where the best hitter is supposed to hit. Pedroia Betts Ortiz Ramirez Benintendi / Bogaerts (vs L) Bogaerts / Young (vs L) Bradley Catcher Holt / Shaw Or you could put Bogaerts back to 2 and have Benintendi / Bradley 6 & 7. If they bring in a LHR for Benny, they get Young. I like that lineup a lot actually. If JF insists on putting a lefty in that 2 spot why not JBJ or Benintendi? Even though I like Brock a lot, they're just better hitters than him and you can't really debate it. They are also good baserunners so it's not like you can make that argument for Holt either. I like Benintendi in the 2 hole much more than Holt. And he may well hit there next year (followed by Betts and Ramirez). JBJ has struggled badly in the clutch this year, and has been better when they can pitch around him rather than have to pitch to him, so I'm comfortable with keeping him 7.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 4, 2016 7:37:54 GMT -5
I agree, I kind of like what they've been doing with the lineup, but it seems to make much more sense with Benny 2 and Brock 9.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 4, 2016 11:35:55 GMT -5
It'll be interesting to see if they leave Brock Holt in the two hole playing 3B and keep Mookie hitting 3rd instead of 4th. I like having Mookie hit in front of Papi because then Papi can clog the bases for Hanley instead of Mookie. And then Hanley will barely have any opportunities to make a baserunning mistake. I also am really interested in who the backup catcher is. I think it should be Vazquez and would not be surprised if he's a better option to start at some point, but I expect JF to have a really slow hook there. But that call is probably made primarily by who calls the better game and we don't have a lot of info on that. I pray that someone from the F.O. explains to JF that fixing the R/L imbalance in the lineup by hitting Holt 2nd literally makes as much sense as doing so by hitting Ortiz 9th. The analytic Internet will explode in deserved mockery if the manager of one of the two best offenses of the last 20 or so years bats the team's one below-average hitter in the spot where the best hitter is supposed to hit. Pedroia Betts Ortiz Ramirez Benintendi / Bogaerts (vs L) Bogaerts / Young (vs L) Bradley Catcher Holt / Shaw Or you could put Bogaerts back to 2 and have Benintendi / Bradley 6 & 7. If they bring in a LHR for Benny, they get Young. I agree with you. I worded my question/point in a way that skipped right to the Farrell logic as if that's the only possibility. The main point was that I think Mookie should bat in front of Papi, who should hit in front of Hanley. Mainly because you make Mookie's incredible baserunning about as effective as Papi's baserunning when he's one base in front of him. And if Papi is in front of Hanley, you can limit Hanley's ability to make dumb decisions.
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