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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 15:48:51 GMT -5
When Blake Swihart was drafted 26th overall by the Red Sox in their now legendary 2011 draft, he was given a 2.5 million dollar bonus, more than double his slot value. He was paid significantly more than other big 1st rounders like Jose Fernandez (#14, 2 million), Sonny Gray (#18, 1.54 million), Boston's own Matt Barnes (#19, 1.5 million), and Kolten Wong (#22, 1.3 million). This was for a high school shortstop, who didn't catch until junior year, and was never a everyday catcher. In essence, the Red Sox gave him 2.5 million on potential. His upside behind the plate was that big.
Fast forward to 2015. Because of injury, Swihart, a top 15 MLB prospect at the time, was rushed to the majors after only 150 plate appearances at AAA and catching just 38 games there. After a rough 1st month in the majors, as a 23 year old catcher that had caught for less than 4 years, Swihart proved to be a dependable and promising player for the Red Sox in a lost season. Swihart was worth 1.4 fWAR in half of a season, paving the way for what should have been a breakout 2016 season.
Swihart started the 1st 6 games for the 2016 Sox, and dropped a pop up, and had a very poor game trying to catch a knuckleball for the 1st time. And just like that the plug is pulled. Never mind that Swihart is 24. Never mind that the sample size was 6 games. Never mind that he was worth about 2.5 WAR extrapolated to the number of games in a catcher's season in 2015. Never mind that the Sox specifically drafted him as a project and knew that there was a learning curve.
Farrell, Dombrowski, and whoever else was involved decided that those 6 games meant that Vazquez, a clearly inferior player, was now cemented as a the starting catcher. Sox catchers were worth 2.2 fWAR this season, including a combined -0.3 from Vazquez, Hanigan, and Holaday combined. Leon is better than 2015 Sandy Leon, but his .390 BABIP surely won't be back. Swihart ended up being forced into left field, and we all know how that ended. He lost a crucial year of development defensively, and had less than 75 PAs in the majors, and 200 PAs total.
Next year, Swihart must be the everyday starter at catcher, any other move is indefensible. Leon might have killed most of his value with his September performance, but he could still bring back a solid reliever or a lottery ticket prospect in return. Pablo, I expect to be gone as a sort of a salary dump this offseason.
In 2017, if everyone is healthy and Moncada comes back up around June like expected, I think the best starting breakdown for games at each position is...
C: Swihart (97), Vazquez (65): a 3:2 ratio, with Vaz catching Wright and a vulnerable starter (Buch or E-Rod)
1B: Shaw (65), Hanley (57), Swihart (30), Others (10)
2B: Pedroia (150), Holt (7), Others (5)
SS: Bogaerts (155), Holt (7)
3B: Moncada (60), Holt (47), Shaw (35), Swihart (10), Others (10)
LF: Benintendi (140), Holt (22), Others (10)
CF: JBJ (150), Benintendi (12)
RF: Mookie (160), Young (2)
DH: Hanley (85), Young (45), Moncada (20)
In my opinion, this lineup maximizes the value of the 2017 Red Sox. Shaw is still a solid player against righties (97 wRC+) and Swihart can get his bat in the lineup on the days he doesn't catch by playing the infield a bit like back in high school. Hanley can more than adequately take over as the primary DH; signing Encarnacion, Bautista, or Trumbo would be a big mistake.
But bottom line is that Swihart cannot be blackballed by the organization for another season. He has perennial All-Star potential, and he showed flashes of it back in 2015. The Sox now know that Vazquez is nothing more than an elite backup, there are no excuses anymore. The time is now for Blake Swihart, Redux.
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Post by thegoo13 on Oct 11, 2016 16:05:31 GMT -5
When Blake Swihart was drafted 26th overall by the Red Sox in their now legendary 2011 draft, he was given a 2.5 million dollar bonus, more than double his slot value. He was paid significantly more than other big 1st rounders like Jose Fernandez (#14, 2 million), Sonny Gray (#18, 1.54 million), Boston's own Matt Barnes (#19, 1.5 million), and Kolten Wong (#22, 1.3 million). This was for a high school shortstop, who didn't catch until junior year, and was never a everyday catcher. In essence, the Red Sox gave him 2.5 million on potential. His upside behind the plate was that big. Fast forward to 2015. Because of injury, Swihart, a top 15 MLB prospect at the time, was rushed to the majors after only 150 plate appearances at AAA and catching just 38 games there. After a rough 1st month in the majors, as a 23 year old catcher that had caught for less than 4 years, Swihart proved to be a dependable and promising player for the Red Sox in a lost season. Swihart was worth 1.4 fWAR in half of a season, paving the way for what should have been a breakout 2016 season. Swihart started the 1st 6 games for the 2016 Sox, and dropped a pop up, and had a very poor game trying to catch a knuckleball for the 1st time. And just like that the plug is pulled. Never mind that Swihart is 24. Never mind that the sample size was 6 games. Never mind that he was worth about 2.5 WAR extrapolated to the number of games in a catcher's season in 2015. Never mind that the Sox specifically drafted him as a project and knew that there was a learning curve. Farrell, Dombrowski, and whoever else was involved decided that those 6 games meant that Vazquez, a clearly inferior player, was now cemented as a the starting catcher. Sox catchers were worth 2.2 fWAR this season, including a combined -0.3 from Vazquez, Hanigan, and Holaday combined. Leon is better than 2015 Sandy Leon, but his .390 BABIP surely won't be back. Swihart ended up being forced into left field, and we all know how that ended. He lost a crucial year of development defensively, and Next year, Swihart must be the everyday starter at catcher, any other move is indefensible. Leon might have killed most of his value with his September performance, but he could still bring back a solid reliever or a lottery ticket prospect in return. Pablo, I expect to be gone as a sort of a salary dump this offseason. In 2017, if everyone is healthy and Moncada comes back up around June like expected, I think the best starting breakdown for games at each position is... C: Swihart (97), Vazquez (65): a 3:2 ratio, with Vaz catching Wright and a vulnerable starter (Buch or E-Rod) 1B: Shaw (65), Hanley (57), Swihart (30), Others (10) 2B: Pedroia (150), Holt (7), Others (5) SS: Bogaerts (155), Holt (7) 3B: Moncada (60), Holt (47), Shaw (35), Swihart (10), Others (10) LF: Benintendi (140), Holt (22), Others (10) CF: JBJ (150), Benintendi (12) RF: Mookie (160), Young (2) DH: Hanley (85), Young (45), Moncada (20) In my opinion, this lineup maximizes the value of the 2017 Red Sox. Shaw is still a solid player against righties (97 wRC+) and Swihart can get his bat in the lineup on the days he doesn't catch by playing the infield a bit like back in high school. Hanley can more than adequately take over as the primary DH; signing Encarnacion, Bautista, or Trumbo would be a big mistake. But bottom line is that Swihart cannot be blackballed by the organization for another season. He has perennial All-Star potential, and he showed flashes of it back in 2015. The Sox now know that Vazquez is nothing more than an elite backup, there are no excuses anymore. The time is now for Blake Swihart, Redux. I agree with a lot of this analysis. I would say that it was my understanding pitchers did not like throwing to Swihart. So there is maybe more to it than just what you detailed above. However, with the OF looking set there would seem to be no room for him there in 2017. I think he starts the year in AAA with Leon and Vazquez as the starters. Would not at all be surprised if he takes over at some point though. The other piece that could easily be in play is the potential signing of EE. Impossible to replace Papi's production from the current roster but a good year from EE and even more improvement from the young stars on the team could come close. Don't think Boston will go into next season without signing someone to replace Papi. Also think Sandoval starts the year at 3B. Doubt they can get rid of him for anything that really makes sense.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 11, 2016 16:09:21 GMT -5
We have no idea how he'll hit and by extension how often he'll start, but one thing is blatantly obvious. He should be behind the plate.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 11, 2016 16:11:42 GMT -5
There is no option for catching in AAA to work on his defense. Vazquez and Leon have no options.
For catchers, I place the importance of defense and hitting to be at least 80% defense and 20% offense. I'm perfectly fine with Leon and Vazquez because of their defense.
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Oct 11, 2016 16:14:30 GMT -5
I'd fully commit to the Swihart/Vazquez platoon. Finding a León suitor would be ideal.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 16:34:40 GMT -5
The other piece that could easily be in play is the potential signing of EE. Impossible to replace Papi's production from the current roster but a good year from EE and even more improvement from the young stars on the team could come close. Don't think Boston will go into next season without signing someone to replace Papi. Also think Sandoval starts the year at 3B. Doubt they can get rid of him for anything that really makes sense. In my opinion, signing EE would be a mistake. There are simply not enough at bats to go around, and I really don't want the Red Sox to go after another 30+ year old slugger that can't run or field. Signing EE to a long term deal leaves Moncada pretty much blocked for all of 2017. Essentially, Hanley is replacing Ortiz, Shaw is moving from 3rd to 1st, and 3rd base becomes a job share with Holt and Moncada. So basically we are removing Ortiz from the lineup and adding Moncada+Holt. The drop off in play will be ~ 3 WAR in my opinion but I bet that both Swihart and Benintendi, will improve on the 2.2 WAR and 2.0 WAR numbers that the Sox got out of C and LF in 2016. So in essence, the overall offense will likely not improve or decline next season. And seeing that the Sox had the best offense in the league by a large margin, I see no reason for the Sox to spend that much money on EE or a similar player when 2018 FA is much better, and they could better spend their resources on pitching.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 11, 2016 17:15:39 GMT -5
Pawtucket Starting Catcher
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 11, 2016 17:21:55 GMT -5
I agree about Encarnacion. As much as I feel he can equal Papi's production, the Sox cannot afford to lose a first round pick. I don't think they're concerned about the money as Papi's retirement will at least mitigate any pay EE would earn, but the reduction in international signing authority diminishes the ability to replenish the farm system.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 11, 2016 17:24:54 GMT -5
I have no idea what Blake Swihart is at this point, and I don't think it's worth arguing about until we see him in camp next spring.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2016 17:56:16 GMT -5
I agree about Encarnacion. As much as I feel he can equal Papi's production, the Sox cannot afford to lose a first round pick. I don't think they're concerned about the money as Papi's retirement will at least mitigate any pay EE would earn, but the reduction in international signing authority diminishes the ability to replenish the farm system. These are good points. However, not acquiring a free agent means going into the season with Travis Shaw and Pablo Sandoval as your starting corner infielders. Shaw was a liability at the plate from early June on, and Sandoval is a question mark to say the least. For a team in win now mode, I don't think DD will roll the dice and hope for a resurgence from both of these players. I think he will go for the immediate payoff and acquire a run producer to replace Papi. I'm not saying I disagree with your approach of replacing Papi in house, but Dombrowski's M.O. seems to be free agent splashes, bold trades, and a hunger to win now.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 11, 2016 18:23:05 GMT -5
Here we go again... Vasquez swithart... both with fatal flaws but we will talk ourselves into them... both have potential but neither can be relied on yet.
Vasquez has no options so he's on the team and they need to find another option either to split duties with him or to start with Vasquez as the back up.
Swithart should be catching most days in AAA or given up on as a catcher or traded.
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Post by adamoraz on Oct 11, 2016 18:35:54 GMT -5
Considering that Blake was A) pulled from the starting catching job very early in the season even though the Sox didn't have a very good backup plan at the time, B) Was sent to the minors and instead of working on his defense was immediately switched to the outfield and C) Was told by the Sox to prepare for next season as a catcher and an outfielder, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they really don't trust him behind the plate at this point. so even if he hadn't missed so much time with the ankle injury I doubt they'd use him as their starting catcher to start the season next year. Thinking outside the box, if they want his bat on the team next year I would say use him as a utility player. He's already stated he'd be willing to take that roll, he certainly has the athletic ability to play multiple positions and it would give the team a lot more versatility than say Travis Shaw, a corner infield only guy who's poor hitting dropped him from being an every day player at the start of the year to a platoon player in July to fighting for playing time in September to finally being benched in October. And considering that the team will already feature Hanley at 1b/DH, Sandoval (chances of getting anyone to take that contract before he plays a single game are between slim and nill) at 3b and whoever they get to replace Papi (And they're definitely going to go after someone, absolutely no chance that they stand pat) I think they'll need all the versatility they can get.
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Post by adamoraz on Oct 11, 2016 18:42:23 GMT -5
Also, while trading Leon would definitely be selling high, I just don't see them doing it. Even if his production takes a major hit next year, he's the only catcher they have that has shown that he can hit major league pitching at all, he's strong defensively and the pitching staff loves him. That's a guy you don't just toss away.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2016 20:00:38 GMT -5
The other piece that could easily be in play is the potential signing of EE. Impossible to replace Papi's production from the current roster but a good year from EE and even more improvement from the young stars on the team could come close. Don't think Boston will go into next season without signing someone to replace Papi. Also think Sandoval starts the year at 3B. Doubt they can get rid of him for anything that really makes sense. In my opinion, signing EE would be a mistake. There are simply not enough at bats to go around, and I really don't want the Red Sox to go after another 30+ year old slugger that can't run or field. Signing EE to a long term deal leaves Moncada pretty much blocked for all of 2017. Essentially, Hanley is replacing Ortiz, Shaw is moving from 3rd to 1st, and 3rd base becomes a job share with Holt and Moncada. So basically we are removing Ortiz from the lineup and adding Moncada+Holt. The drop off in play will be ~ 3 WAR in my opinion but I bet that both Swihart and Benintendi, will improve on the 2.2 WAR and 2.0 WAR numbers that the Sox got out of C and LF in 2016. So in essence, the overall offense will likely not improve or decline next season. And seeing that the Sox had the best offense in the league by a large margin, I see no reason for the Sox to spend that much money on EE or a similar player when 2018 FA is much better, and they could better spend their resources on pitching. Trade Shaw, leave Hanley at first base and sign EE. That solves that logjam.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 11, 2016 20:10:18 GMT -5
So, FWIW, 7 players in MLB caught 120+ games this season. You could probably name 5 of them without thinking (Molina, Realmuto, Perez, Ramos, Martin, Lucroy, Posey). Expanding to 110+ only gets you five more (Wieters, Norris, Grandal, Vogt, Castro). Even if you look at Sandy Leon, who they leaned on heavily, in the second half, he was on a pace to play in 124 games and start 118 behind the plate.
There is almost no chance Swihart catches 120+ games next year. I can't see them going from demoting him after a couple weeks to leaning on him that heavily for an entire season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2016 20:11:37 GMT -5
Give me Swihart at catcher. They'll probably have him catch in AAA though.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Oct 11, 2016 20:45:52 GMT -5
I would be fine with any combination of Swihart/Leon/Vazquez
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 21:26:07 GMT -5
In my opinion, signing EE would be a mistake. There are simply not enough at bats to go around, and I really don't want the Red Sox to go after another 30+ year old slugger that can't run or field. Signing EE to a long term deal leaves Moncada pretty much blocked for all of 2017. Essentially, Hanley is replacing Ortiz, Shaw is moving from 3rd to 1st, and 3rd base becomes a job share with Holt and Moncada. So basically we are removing Ortiz from the lineup and adding Moncada+Holt. The drop off in play will be ~ 3 WAR in my opinion but I bet that both Swihart and Benintendi, will improve on the 2.2 WAR and 2.0 WAR numbers that the Sox got out of C and LF in 2016. So in essence, the overall offense will likely not improve or decline next season. And seeing that the Sox had the best offense in the league by a large margin, I see no reason for the Sox to spend that much money on EE or a similar player when 2018 FA is much better, and they could better spend their resources on pitching. Trade Shaw, leave Hanley at first base and sign EE. That solves that logjam. EE has been worth an average of a little over 4 WAR over the last 4 seasons, but I'm not sure how will age for his, entering his age 34 season. He's probably get 20 million+/year over at least 4 years. Travis Shaw (1.5 WAR last year) will make 550,000 the next 2 years and then he still has 3 arbitration years left. I'd rather splurge on a pitcher in 2018 FA with the 20 million/year than trade a useful player like Shaw, who's locked up long term for pennies.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 21:32:46 GMT -5
There is no option for catching in AAA to work on his defense. Vazquez and Leon have no options. For catchers, I place the importance of defense and hitting to be at least 80% defense and 20% offense. I'm perfectly fine with Leon and Vazquez because of their defense. The problem is that Vaz can't hit. His career 61 wRC+ would place him 73rd amongst qualified catchers (out of 77) over the last 10 years, below Jose Molina and next to career backups like Rene Rivera and Jeff Mathis. Vaz will have a 10+ year career just because of his defense alone, but he will never be a starter. And again, Swihart isn't even close to a lost cause defensively. In fact, he profiles as an above average one.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2016 21:34:23 GMT -5
Trade Shaw, leave Hanley at first base and sign EE. That solves that logjam. EE has been worth an average of a little over 4 WAR over the last 4 seasons, but I'm not sure how will age for his, entering his age 34 season. He's probably get 20 million+/year over at least 4 years. Travis Shaw (1.5 WAR last year) will make 550,000 the next 2 years and then he still has 3 arbitration years left. I'd rather splurge on a pitcher in 2018 FA with the 20 million/year than trade a useful player like Shaw, who's locked up long term for pennies. The only pitcher worth buying in 2018 died in a tragic boat accident in Jose Fernandez. Unless Otani gets posted sometime soon, there isn't a player worth money outside of some cheaper relievers like Koji and Ziegler. I'd go after EE hard and make him a full-time DH so he stays healthy for the life of his contract. I'll stop with the non catcher talks and non Swihart talks in this thread before the mods say something. Hahaha.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2016 21:50:09 GMT -5
I think Swihart winds up in AAA to start the season, but before long I think Swihart and Sandy Leon make a good combination behind the plate, and I'd trade Christian Vazquez.
Ultimately I think Swihart will be a pretty good hitter for a catcher. Defensively I think he'll be acceptable, although he needs work. Leon handles lefties well which works well in a platoon with Swihart, and Leon is a good defensive catcher, but ultimately I think Swihart should be the starting catcher moving forward in 2017.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 21:58:30 GMT -5
So, FWIW, 7 players in MLB caught 120+ games this season. You could probably name 5 of them without thinking (Molina, Realmuto, Perez, Ramos, Martin, Lucroy, Posey). Expanding to 110+ only gets you five more (Wieters, Norris, Grandal, Vogt, Castro). Even if you look at Sandy Leon, who they leaned on heavily, in the second half, he was on a pace to play in 124 games and start 118 behind the plate. There is almost no chance Swihart catches 120+ games next year. I can't see them going from demoting him after a couple weeks to leaning on him that heavily for an entire season. I think this says more about the sad state of young catchers in the league right now. Swihart, who peaked at #17 in BA's top prospect list (and would have been top 10 or 5 if he hadn't been called up early out of necessity) was a 60 FV prospect. He is literally the best catching prospect in baseball since Posey. Only Gary Sanchez (FV 55, peak ranking #30 in 2010) and maybe Austin Hedges rival Swihart since Posey. The position is littered with guys who either busted or had to change positions like Jesus Montero, D'arnaud, Bethancourt, Willin Rosario, Zunino, and Schwarber and out of all of them, only Montero was a more highly touted prospect. It's easy to overlook Swihart because JBJ, Bogaerts, and Betts all burst onto the scene before him, but Swihart was legitimately a superstar prospect peaking at #17 next to Glasnow, Rodon, JP Crawford, and Sano. The most frustrating part, is that when Swihart has played catcher, he's succeeded. If you take his 84 games in 2015 and extrapolate it over a full season as a starter, he's the 5th best catcher in baseball by WAR. To take your 60 FV prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was promoted prematurely, and demote him and force him to change positions 6 games into his sophomore season is unprecedented. I can't think of a single example of any other organization doing this with a successful elite prospect. I wouldn't expect guys like McCann, Suzuki, Ianetta, Weiters and others to start 120+ games. They all have played the position for years and experienced all the bumps and bruises from the position. It's the young guys like Swihart, and Sanchez, and Hedges and the prospects that should start 120+ games.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 11, 2016 22:09:11 GMT -5
EE has been worth an average of a little over 4 WAR over the last 4 seasons, but I'm not sure how will age for his, entering his age 34 season. He's probably get 20 million+/year over at least 4 years. Travis Shaw (1.5 WAR last year) will make 550,000 the next 2 years and then he still has 3 arbitration years left. I'd rather splurge on a pitcher in 2018 FA with the 20 million/year than trade a useful player like Shaw, who's locked up long term for pennies. The only pitcher worth buying in 2018 died in a tragic boat accident in Jose Fernandez. Unless Otani gets posted sometime soon, there isn't a player worth money outside of some cheaper relievers like Koji and Ziegler. I'd go after EE hard and make him a full-time DH so he stays healthy for the life of his contract. I'll stop with the non catcher talks and non Swihart talks in this thread before the mods say something. Hahaha. I don't post here that often, so I don't really know the rules the mods make but I don't mind talking about 2018 pitchers in the Swihart thread. I think you're seriously underestimating the 2018 FA class for pitchers. Matt Harvey, Arrieta, Keuchel, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Quintana and I'm sure there's more. That's not even mentioning opt out candidates like Kershaw. Also the position players are stacked too: Machado, Donaldson, Harper, Pollock, Brantley and others. I just think the Sox can spent 20 million on a more useful player than EE. Hanley Ramirez probably gives the Sox 85% of EE's production and he just seems superfluous.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 5:16:39 GMT -5
He's the only catcher with options. There's no way you trade Leon or Vazquez in order to make room for him, when he barely caught last year. He starts the season in AAA, where he can be expected to create a logjam or a very sweet trade situation by the trading deadline.
End of thread.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Oct 12, 2016 8:28:58 GMT -5
The only pitcher worth buying in 2018 died in a tragic boat accident in Jose Fernandez. Unless Otani gets posted sometime soon, there isn't a player worth money outside of some cheaper relievers like Koji and Ziegler. I'd go after EE hard and make him a full-time DH so he stays healthy for the life of his contract. I'll stop with the non catcher talks and non Swihart talks in this thread before the mods say something. Hahaha. I don't post here that often, so I don't really know the rules the mods make but I don't mind talking about 2018 pitchers in the Swihart thread. I think you're seriously underestimating the 2018 FA class for pitchers. Matt Harvey, Arrieta, Keuchel, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Quintana and I'm sure there's more. That's not even mentioning opt out candidates like Kershaw. Also the position players are stacked too: Machado, Donaldson, Harper, Pollock, Brantley and others. I just think the Sox can spent 20 million on a more useful player than EE. Hanley Ramirez probably gives the Sox 85% of EE's production and he just seems superfluous.Hanley can come close to, or replicate Ortiz' producton. That's a pretty good consensus. As KC said, it's the CI positions that scare me. You're really putting a lot of faith into Shaw & Sandoval (which I don't). I'm not saying EE is the answer. Maybe Justin Turner or Steve Pearce type.
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