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BP Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2016 10:51:44 GMT -5
BPro out with their Top 10 today: 1. OF Andrew Benintendi 2. IF Yoan Moncada 3. 3B Rafael Devers 4. LHP Jason Groome 5. RHP Michael Kopech 6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe 7. SS Mauricio Dubon 8. 1B Sam Travis 9. LHP Brian Johnson 10. 1B Josh Ockimey www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30775Article is for subscribers. The most interesting part is about what an 80-grade hit tool means and why they didn't put one on Benintendi.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 2, 2016 13:32:01 GMT -5
80 grade hit tools are basically unheard of. I love Benny but I don't think he deserves that anyway.
It's been said but it's funny how Boston almost (maybe even actually did) lower Moncada's value by calling up when everyone knew it was premature. I always liked Benintendi more but the people who flipped the two because of Moncada's brief stint are being hyper reactive.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2016 14:20:43 GMT -5
I really think they're more flipping them because of Benintendi already being good and the upside starting to approach Moncada's - both the BA and BPro writeups of him are glowing. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Benintendi end up #1 overall in either, and I'd be surprised to see Moncada end up lower than #5.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2016 14:25:20 GMT -5
Yeah, I had a similar initial reaction to Alex's putting Benintendi ahead, but after talking with him on the podcast, hearing him elsewhere and seeing the writeups, it really is Benintendi catching up more than the converse.
That said, I think Moncada's rough stretch in Boston does affect the ranking, in showing that he's perhaps not as close to ready as we might have thought if he hadn't come up. Before the call-up, I'd have said he might compete for a job in spring training. Now I'd guess midseason the earliest, if not next September. I also think Moncada's ranking is affected by the fact that it's still really unclear where he's going to play in the majors, even though that's not a question that's really his fault so much as it's external factors.
But as Alex has said w/r/t BA (they're both in BA's top 5), and would also apply here, the proof will be in where the two rank on top overall prospect lists rather than the Sox list. It's really 1 and 1A and a distinction without a lot of meaning unless I see otherwise when ranking them against everyone else in the game.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 2, 2016 14:37:40 GMT -5
I still have to listen to the podcast, been crazy busy lately. But I see what both of you guys are saying and agree. Obviously splitting hairs between two amazing talents regardless.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 2, 2016 15:26:19 GMT -5
Benintendi was a pretty mature hitter when he left college, with excellent bat speed and look at how consistent he is with his approach. The guy can clearly wait longer before swinging even if it is just a few nanoseconds and what a difference that can make in pitch recognition. Takes most of the balls up the middle or at least defaults to that and selects when to pull. Good defense. Should have been #1 really all last year. He always had a more secure floor with Moncada's swing and miss and it's not like Benny had a puny bat. He was driving the ball even in college..
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2016 16:16:30 GMT -5
80 grade hit tools are basically unheard of. I love Benny but I don't think he deserves that anyway. It's been said but it's funny how Boston almost (maybe even actually did) lower Moncada's value by calling up when everyone knew it was premature. I always liked Benintendi more but the people who flipped the two because of Moncada's brief stint are being hyper reactive. You gotta save 80s for hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro and Wade Boggs. (what they ended up at, not what they were as prospects)
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Post by ryan24 on Dec 2, 2016 16:45:05 GMT -5
I really think they're more flipping them because of Benintendi already being good and the upside starting to approach Moncada's - both the BA and BPro writeups of him are glowing. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Benintendi end up #1 overall in either, and I'd be surprised to see Moncada end up lower than #5. I agree the top 5 prospects are beni and moncada, devers groome and kopech. The order is always up for debate. Snapshot in time. Right now beni looks like a major leaguer and moncada does not. This based on the sample of results we have right now. Beni seems to be able to hit mlb pitching and was not overwhelmed. Moncada on the other hand has a big wall to break thru. Is he prospect or suspect? Is his superior looking skills in the batting cage and at A ball a tease or the real thing? If you are from Missouri, the show me state, beni is rated higher. Looking at groome and kopech is very tough. Groome has a VERY SMALL data base in pro ball. Kopech less than 150 innings in pro ball nothing to speak of above high A. Kopech has shown a little with groome showing basically nothing. Here again it comes back to Missouri. I totally agree that both of these could flip around. Today I have beni ahead of moncada and kopech ahead of groome. Your choice is what separates Theo from clubs that finish last. Who can consistently figure out which player is better.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2016 18:37:33 GMT -5
I meant top five in baseball.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 2, 2016 19:38:06 GMT -5
Finally some love for Brian Johnson, this is the last ever year we will see him on this list though. Hope he can pick up where he left off 2 years ago.
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pd
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Post by pd on Dec 3, 2016 8:25:18 GMT -5
You know you have a really good top 5 when Kopech sits at 5.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 3, 2016 13:30:15 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman @aarongleeman Dec 2 Red Sox top 10 prospects, with Moncada vs. Benintendi fighting for #1 spot. Stacked system, even after some trades. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30775 … Their editor must have missed the re-write on "The Good". Too many short choppy sentences.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 3, 2016 14:15:02 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman @aarongleeman Dec 2 Red Sox top 10 prospects, with Moncada vs. Benintendi fighting for #1 spot. Stacked system, even after some trades. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30775 … Their editor must have missed the re-write on "The Good". Too many short choppy sentences. I think moncada has the highest upside of any of our prospects, but he needs more time. His impatience at the plate is a result of inexperience.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2016 15:15:12 GMT -5
I'd like to quibble with this idea I've seen a few times that Moncada is impatient, because it's just really, really wrong.
He has some swing-and-miss right now, but 30% of his strikeouts were looking, which as 11th of 74 players in the system with 200 plate appearances this year. Even in the majors, he saw 4.35 pitches per plate appearance, which was more than anyone but Pablo Sandoval and Ryan LaMarre on the team and was 87th in the game among all hitters if you don't put any type of playing time minimum. If he'd done that over a qualifying sample, he'd have been fifth in MLB behind Werth, Napoli, Trout, and Fowler.
He has things to work on that manifest in strikeouts, but they don't involve impatience. Far from it, he's arguably too patient.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 3, 2016 17:19:25 GMT -5
I'm in full agreement with your analysis. He had an approach that he may have developed during his time in Cuba, and it has a lot to recommend it. But to ML umps, he's just another raw rookie and he won't get the plate calls till they have a feel for him and for that approach. He'll need to adapt initially, but I'll bet he's up to it.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2016 23:39:35 GMT -5
Aaron Gleeman @aarongleeman Dec 2 Red Sox top 10 prospects, with Moncada vs. Benintendi fighting for #1 spot. Stacked system, even after some trades. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30775 … Their editor must have missed the re-write on "The Good". Too many short choppy sentences. I think moncada has the highest upside of any of our prospects, but he needs more time. His impatience at the plate is a result of inexperience. Although I think it's less impatience and more overpatience, at least in the minors. He has yet to adjust to the fact that, at higher levels, he's going to see a lot fewer mistakes, and he's going to get set up. As the pitchers' command gets better, he needs to shrink his zone, but simultaneously be more decisive on jumping all over pitches he can drive. The walks will come when he shows that he can identify and crush mistakes and not be fooled by pitchers' pitches. Although Mookie never had the Ks Moncada does, his walk rate plummeted when he was getting pounded in the zone. As he's shown that doesn't work on him (by being selectively aggressive early), his BB rate is climbing back up.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 3, 2016 23:50:15 GMT -5
Btw, any one have access to Benintendi's writeup? I'm curious as to what they say about his hit tool.
I'm not sure Benintendi becomes more than a 18-25 HR guy, but man, is he fun to watch as a hitter. Sweet swing, terrific bat speed, great recognition, stays within his plan and goes with what he's given. Sounds cliched, but the guy is just a prototypical sweet-swinging lefty. Not at all fair, but I can envision Mattingly-esque lines in his peak, dropping a few .350/.420/.550 triple slashes with 50 doubles and more walks than Ks. It's a lot to ask, and I certainly don't "expect" it, but Mattingly is exactly the guy I think of when I watch Benintendi. 5'10, 170, and pulling missiles when guys think they can serve him hard stuff inside.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 4, 2016 2:38:41 GMT -5
Btw, any one have access to Benintendi's writeup? I'm curious as to what they say about his hit tool. I'm not sure Benintendi becomes more than a 18-25 HR guy, but man, is he fun to watch as a hitter. Sweet swing, terrific bat speed, great recognition, stays within his plan and goes with what he's given. Sounds cliched, but the guy is just a prototypical sweet-swinging lefty. Not at all fair, but I can envision Mattingly-esque lines in his peak, dropping a few .350/.420/.550 triple slashes with 50 doubles and more walks than Ks. It's a lot to ask, and I certainly don't "expect" it, but Mattingly is exactly the guy I think of when I watch Benintendi. 5'10, 170, and pulling missiles when guys think they can serve him hard stuff inside. Mattingly, good comp. He even looks like Don when he was young. Just yesterday I was trying to come up with a comp. Carew was as close as I could come up with but I like the Mattingly comp. This part of the write-up is public: The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?
Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2016 9:02:37 GMT -5
I agree the top 5 prospects are beni and moncada, devers groome and kopech. The order is always up for debate. Snapshot in time. Right now beni looks like a major leaguer and moncada does not. This based on the sample of results we have right now. Beni seems to be able to hit mlb pitching and was not overwhelmed. Moncada on the other hand has a big wall to break thru. Is he prospect or suspect? Beni doesn't look like a major leaguer he IS a major leaguer and a good one. He pretty much has to be the number 1 player on prospect lists. As for Moncada, he should be number 2 on all the mid season lists who had him number 1, unless there is someone else added to the player pool who I'm overlooking. I know this won't be the case everywhere but it should be. I agree with the "further away" than expected thought process. Everyone knew his K rate was an issue so that his approach and/or pitch recognition needed to improve. When you translate those things to the majors you don't get success which is exactly what happened. Of course people will say "But the degree to which he struggled and didn't adjust are what is concerning." Which makes sense, until you remember a few things. One, he never got a real chance to adjust and play thru his mistakes. They were in a pennant race and he didn't get consistent at bats. He literally had 4 starts. I'm not saying those starts mean nothing but I'm saying if you are making them mean much then you are over analyzing. Two, he is a 20 year old kid from Cuba who doesn't speak much English. Sure this team had a lot of young guys so he should be able to relate to this team more than a lot of other teams, BUT he is from Cuba and he can't communicate with a lot of the young guys. Last I checked Xander, JBJ, Mookie and AB didn't speak Spanish. Also, think about the Cuban and minor league life style and then think of the major league one... I realize Yoan is rich already and has toys other minor leaguers can only dream on but still... Third, he wasn't ready to begin with so putting a kid in a spot where he's not ready, it's hard for him to relate/communicate with his teammates and you're not going to allow him to play thru things to make adjustments is a recipe for exactly what happened. I struggle with whether, even in hindsight, they should have called him up last year. Developmentally, in the short term, I actually think it was good for him. The culture shock of the major league life style must have been massive. Charter planes vs buses, suites vs motel 6, nice dinners vs crappy sandwiches. Groupies vs lot lizards... The list goes on and on. The exposure to that in a small dose before the offseason is good; it will allow him to digest a lot and not have to worry about nearly as much off field stuff next year. The same is true for the on field and during the game stuff. On the other hand, long term, it takes away an option year and starts his clock a year early. I realize, we aren't expecting that to matter but it creates a situation where timelines have to be moved up and decisions that may shouldn't have to be made have to be made which can affect and alter a development. Remember he's only 20... I think things like this can matter. One of the things that I was happiest about on his contract was that it wasn't a major league contract. However, they have effectively turned it into one a year later and he's not ready for majors yet. Edit: Did they use an option on him last year or not? I thought they optioned him back to the minors? If they didn't that is better. Edit2: the transaction wire shows he was reassigned to AAA on 9/30... wouldn't that use an option? The SP site on his player profile page shows he's used none... can anyone clarify this? Does it not count as an option bc the AAA season was over?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2016 13:46:03 GMT -5
I'd like to quibble with this idea I've seen a few times that Moncada is impatient, because it's just really, really wrong. He has some swing-and-miss right now, but 30% of his strikeouts were looking, which as 11th of 74 players in the system with 200 plate appearances this year. Even in the majors, he saw 4.35 pitches per plate appearance, which was more than anyone but Pablo Sandoval and Ryan LaMarre on the team and was 87th in the game among all hitters if you don't put any type of playing time minimum. If he'd done that over a qualifying sample, he'd have been fifth in MLB behind Werth, Napoli, Trout, and Fowler. He has things to work on that manifest in strikeouts, but they don't involve impatience. Far from it, he's arguably too patient. That or it's a pitch recognition thing. Either way, many evaluators seem to forget how young he is. A full year in AAA would be fine unless he legitimately overcomes the shortfalls in his approach and can get that K rate down. Let his performance mandate a call-up rather just riding the hype express.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 6, 2016 6:38:20 GMT -5
[...] Two, he is a 20 year old kid from Cuba who doesn't speak much English. Sure this team had a lot of young guys so he should be able to relate to this team more than a lot of other teams, BUT he is from Cuba and he can't communicate with a lot of the young guys. Last I checked Xander, JBJ, Mookie and AB didn't speak Spanish. Also, think about the Cuban and minor league life style and then think of the major league one... I realize Yoan is rich already and has toys other minor leaguers can only dream on but still... [...] Remember he's only 20... I think things like this can matter. One of the things that I was happiest about on his contract was that it wasn't a major league contract. However, they have effectively turned it into one a year later and he's not ready for majors yet. [...] Moncada turned 21 last May 27.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 6, 2016 8:39:25 GMT -5
... Two, he is a 20 year old kid from Cuba who doesn't speak much English. Sure this team had a lot of young guys so he should be able to relate to this team more than a lot of other teams, BUT he is from Cuba and he can't communicate with a lot of the young guys. Last I checked Xander, JBJ, Mookie and AB didn't speak Spanish. Also, think about the Cuban and minor league life style and then think of the major league one... I realize Yoan is rich already and has toys other minor leaguers can only dream on but still... ... You'll need to check again. Bogaerts speaks four languages, including Spanish and Dutch.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2016 9:12:47 GMT -5
Good to know... greater points still stand on Moncada.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2016 9:13:54 GMT -5
Can anyone provide any help with regards to the options? Did they burn one last year or not? If not why didn't the reassignment on 9/30 burn an option?
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 11:29:09 GMT -5
Can anyone provide any help with regards to the options? Did they burn one last year or not? If not why didn't the reassignment on 9/30 burn an option? He didn't spend 20 days in the minors after being optioned, so no option was burned last year. The Pawtucket season ended in early/mid-September.
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