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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2017 8:23:32 GMT -5
Telson, I'm with you on the "all in" desperation approach as I think about/remember Theo saying don't see out one year for the another - try make the playoffs 8 years out of 10 and take your chances. All I see is 21-21 with a team that truly is mediocre and is relying on players diminished by injury, and a diminished farm system, while Year 1 of the 3 or 4 year window goes up in smoke.
You talk about the relievers, and I'm sitting here thinking off the horrendous luck throughout the years the Red Sox have had with what appeared to be premier setup men. It's like the curse of Larry Andersen or something.
Of course Andersen actually pitched well briefly but cost the services of Jeff Bagwell. A couple of years later young power hitter Phil Plantier was traded for an up and coming relief arm in Jose Melendez, who was injured and never contributed anything. Plantier bopped 30 HRs for the Padres the year the trade was made - in 93.
Since then I remember thinking the Sox made a good deal for Mark Melancon as I always considered Jed Lowrie an injury prone guy and Melancon was up and coming, but then he struggled and Valentine buried him.
So naturally they dealt him away, and while they received Brock Holt, Melancon blossomed while Hanrahan, obtained to be a closer, fizzled, which fortunately opened the door for Koji who was signed for peanuts.
Then I remember being excited about the K/BB ratios of Koji, Tazawa, and the newly acquired Edward Mujica, but Mujica wound up being a bust.
Then I was excited about the acquisition of Carson Smith for the pinata known as Wade Miley, but Smith has yet to contribute.
Then I was intrigued by the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg for a guy who defined replacement level last season in Travis Shaw, and Thornburg is going to wind up being a zero this year.
Not sure there's a major point here, but it's been crazy watching these pitchers who could have been such a big impactful help to the pen fizzle or disappoint. And I'm sure somebody will say that they're so volatile that's why you never trade anything of value for them.
True, but you would have thought you'd get some sort of contributions from guys like that the way (not to the extreme) that the Indians got shutdown relief from Andrew Miller in the middle of the game.
Guess all this makes me appreciate Mike Timlin all the more.
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2017 9:51:39 GMT -5
Yeah, please knock off the "Dumbrowski" stuff. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on May 21, 2017 10:06:08 GMT -5
2) Smith was an injury "risk" by virtue of delivery/slider, but the same could be said of Sale. Pomeranz's medicals were obfuscated and there was no reason to think he was a significant injury risk (until discovery, at which point their options were extremely limited and they were essentially screwed by MLB). Thornburg had a *relatively* minor injury issue that appeared resolved after a terrific full season. I have no issue with arguing the poor choice to trade for relievers, per se (because I agree, although I was OK with Thornburg thinking he or another reliever might be flipped if Barnes/Kelly broke out +/-Smith returned). As I've said way too many times, I never liked the Pomeranz acquisition, but I can understand and respect the rationale for it. But to frame the lot of acquisitions as huge injury risks...well, I disagree inasmuch as I don't think that they were *substantively* more risky than trading for pitching (and relief especially) in general. Smith's numerous injury red flags were pointed out at the time of the trade. It is not hindsight to say that he was materially more risky than the average pitcher. Also: Carson Smith, career slider percentage: 44.7% Chris Sale, career slider percentage: 25% Carson Smith, career IP in professional baseball at time of trade: 233.1 Chris Sale, career IP in professional baseball at time of trade: 1124.1
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Post by thursty on May 21, 2017 10:50:25 GMT -5
There is zero evidence that slider % (or any other pitch mix %) is predictive of injury (just go back and read the Carson thread).
Thornburg however, had a torn UCL that was not treated with surgery.
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Post by soxjim on May 21, 2017 13:11:19 GMT -5
SoxJim, When the Sox broke camp, Sale, Porcello, and Price were firmly penciled into the rotation. That's 3 spots gone. Wright was considered healthy and coming back. The knee injury hadn't cropped up yet. E-Rod was considered a strong starting candidate given how well he pitched the 2nd half of 2016 when he got healthy and he was healthy. Pomeranz was considered "healthy" although some of us were skeptical. So that's six candidates and none of those last 3 were guaranteed, but you think Chavez, who's nowhere near as talented or established as the other 3, is supposed to be guaranteed a spot? No, if I'm Chavez I don't spend my time hoping that one or two get injured and I certainly wouldn't expect Price to get hurt given his track record. I'd rather have a spring battle with a fringy fifth starter on another team than hope the Red Sox, who have six starters ahead of me, have at least two injuries to their starters. The last thing Chavez wants is to ride the Pawsox/Red Sox shuttle hoping for an injury. He wants to battle somebody for the 5th spot and that's going to be a team with less established or penciled in starters. When you say Wright "was considered healthy enough . . ."
1--- Wright was considered healthy enough. He hurt his knee. What can you do? But he was hurt and been in the big leagues one year- not a full year. Can't crucify about Wright but he still was an unknown until he shows in games he is back. But this isn't a highly talented player like a top tier prospect. He has a unique specialty than can go south quickly. If you have one major question for a team you've built around starting pitching that is one thing. But we had 3. Though Erod it was primairily a question of innings.
2-- Along with this site I was a member of two others. This site opened my eyes a bit about players wearing down. So when you say - ""Pomeranz was considered "healthy" although some of us were skeptical,""
WHY were you skeptical Pomeranz? What if BOTH Smith and Pomeranz made you skeptical of the Front Office being to a certain level? Each person has a breaking point when "enough is enough" when we believe. Moving forward, would you believe much that they tell you about concern of a player's arm? If they traded for Matt Harvey and said they checked his arm and he will be fine going forward, would you want the trade (if his arm is okay and you trade for him assume you are giving away youth worth the value of a 1/2)and be confident the Sox are right that there is no issue with his arm? I would be skeptical.
We're skeptical of Pomeranz for a reason and because of his arm issues - don't we also project reduced innings? So if you KNOW he is going to have to pitch reduced innings, and you KNOW Wright was coming off an injury, and you KNOW the team was built heavily on starting pitching, WHY do you want the possibility of relying on 'Henry Owens/Kendrick/Velozquez?"
And because this site got me more interested in other sites such as Fangraphs, when I read below there is mention of what turned the corner for Pomeranz was his cutter. The author of the site practically DISMISSES Pomeranz if not for the addition of his cutter. Even Pomeranz mentioned it made such an enormous difference. Can you imagine my surprise when I learned he wasn't throwing it this year very much at all? Then when I learned the cutter puts pressure on his arm, I didn't know that before. And then when I learned he didn't throw it very early for San Diego, he had to work into it. I didn't know that either. So I have to think what were the Red Sox thinking when they were trying to rely on this guy to start the season? It seems your skepticism was right, correct? Pomeranz it seems shouldn't have been relied upon to be a starter early on. I'm going to reply to jimed on another post-- he suggested Pomeranz couldn't do both. I forgot about Clay. He did - I'll reply to that separate.
www.fangraphs.com/blogs/drew-pomeranz-now-with-50-more-pitches/
3-- You and I can disagree here with chavez. It's the only point I disagree with you on. I get the Wright issue but I thinking more and more this front office is callous. Though no way am I throwing in the towel and wont' crucify the front office much this year. As for the talent issue of Pomz and Wright vs Chaves that imo is irrelevant. It's the injury issue that is the potential problem. And ERod will need a break. It's too much risk to have to settle for "Kendrick." We can't win games with "Kendrick." And as stated before Chavez starts the season with Pomeranz and Wright in the bullpen, so there is no shuttle scenario in which you suggest that would make Chavez worry. And I'm not sure how much real talent Wright has vs Chavez.
4--- So it comes down to what I asked before. WHY? Why did you trust Pomeranz when you were already skeptical? Because you were "told?" How much trust do you pit in Wright? I realize his knee is the injury. BUT--- next year are you going to pencil him in as no-doubt starter, too? I don't believe Wright can be considered "reliable." A guy like Chavez has been in the big leagues a long time. You can rely on him to a degree. IMO reliability of having a decent starter as your 5th should have been more of a priority rather than rolling the dice of of trying to have 4 - to - 5 all-star starting pitchers. And Pomeranz is not "starter-worthy" for a championship caliber team if he can't throw his cutter. Thus he is unreliable until he shows he can throw it. Another case imo that reliability supersedes talent for the lower-tier starters. You prefer talent while risking the reilability?
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Post by soxjim on May 21, 2017 13:19:14 GMT -5
Chavez made 47 starts in 2014 and 2015.
Does Erasmo Ramirez for TB do both? I think Danny Duffy from the Royals in 2014 might have done both. And looking at the Royals stats in 2015 - it looks like 3 - 5 pitchers did both-- Chris Young Joe Blanton Kris Medlen Jeremy Guthrie Danny Duffy
Why not Pomeranz if these guys can? I don't know the exact circumstances of all of them, but it is not possible to be pitching in the bullpen for a month and just make an effective 5 inning start all of a sudden. That's not how pitchers work. You want your relief pitchers tighter so they have more velocity in short stints and you want your starters stretched out so they have more stamina. Pitchers who are in between aren't going to be great at either starting or relieving. An obvious exception would probably be knuckleball pitchers. I forgot all about Clay. He did it last year. I can't agree with you on this. too many players I've mentioned above and if Clay was able to do it along with the others especially in 2015 when so many Royals did it in one year, so can Pomeranz learn. I know the argument was that Clay already built his arm up. But Pomeranz isn't going to be a deep inning pitcher anyways. Pomeranz in the bullpen doesn't need to be a 1 inning pitcher either.
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2017 13:19:53 GMT -5
2) Smith was an injury "risk" by virtue of delivery/slider, but the same could be said of Sale. Pomeranz's medicals were obfuscated and there was no reason to think he was a significant injury risk (until discovery, at which point their options were extremely limited and they were essentially screwed by MLB). Thornburg had a *relatively* minor injury issue that appeared resolved after a terrific full season. I have no issue with arguing the poor choice to trade for relievers, per se (because I agree, although I was OK with Thornburg thinking he or another reliever might be flipped if Barnes/Kelly broke out +/-Smith returned). As I've said way too many times, I never liked the Pomeranz acquisition, but I can understand and respect the rationale for it. But to frame the lot of acquisitions as huge injury risks...well, I disagree inasmuch as I don't think that they were *substantively* more risky than trading for pitching (and relief especially) in general. Smith's numerous injury red flags were pointed out at the time of the trade. It is not hindsight to say that he was materially more risky than the average pitcher. Also: Carson Smith, career slider percentage: 44.7% Chris Sale, career slider percentage: 25% Carson Smith, career IP in professional baseball at time of trade: 233.1 Chris Sale, career IP in professional baseball at time of trade: 1124.1 I thought I made the delivery/slider question marks clear. Yes, those were risk factors for injury. But as you know, the analysis on how predictive those data are are not clear, or striking. Prior injury is the best predictor of future injury. The rest is not voodoo, but it's very far down the line. All of this was discussed in depth after Smith's acquisition. I think you're taking my mention of Sale way beyond intent. I'm drawing a disctinction between data-supported injury risk concern, and the statement "huge injury risk." Those are very different places on a spectrum. Edit: also, please bold in that point where I referred to "hindsight" re: Smith.
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2017 13:22:10 GMT -5
There is zero evidence that slider % (or any other pitch mix %) is predictive of injury (just go back and read the Carson thread). Thornburg however, had a torn UCL that was not treated with surgery. Good point about Thornburg, I'd forgotten that that was the sideliner. I posted some of the data in the Smith thread. It's not conclusive, but suggestive, although the bulk of data are from youth leagues if I recall.
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Post by soxjim on May 21, 2017 13:27:03 GMT -5
Telson, I'm with you on the "all in" desperation approach as I think about/remember Theo saying don't see out one year for the another - try make the playoffs 8 years out of 10 and take your chances. All I see is 21-21 with a team that truly is mediocre and is relying on players diminished by injury, and a diminished farm system, while Year 1 of the 3 or 4 year window goes up in smoke.You talk about the relievers, and I'm sitting here thinking off the horrendous luck throughout the years the Red Sox have had with what appeared to be premier setup men. It's like the curse of Larry Andersen or something. Of course Andersen actually pitched well briefly but cost the services of Jeff Bagwell. A couple of years later young power hitter Phil Plantier was traded for an up and coming relief arm in Jose Melendez, who was injured and never contributed anything. Plantier bopped 30 HRs for the Padres the year the trade was made - in 93. Since then I remember thinking the Sox made a good deal for Mark Melancon as I always considered Jed Lowrie an injury prone guy and Melancon was up and coming, but then he struggled and Valentine buried him. So naturally they dealt him away, and while they received Brock Holt, Melancon blossomed while Hanrahan, obtained to be a closer, fizzled, which fortunately opened the door for Koji who was signed for peanuts. Then I remember being excited about the K/BB ratios of Koji, Tazawa, and the newly acquired Edward Mujica, but Mujica wound up being a bust. Then I was excited about the acquisition of Carson Smith for the pinata known as Wade Miley, but Smith has yet to contribute. Then I was intrigued by the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg for a guy who defined replacement level last season in Travis Shaw, and Thornburg is going to wind up being a zero this year. Not sure there's a major point here, but it's been crazy watching these pitchers who could have been such a big impactful help to the pen fizzle or disappoint. And I'm sure somebody will say that they're so volatile that's why you never trade anything of value for them. True, but you would have thought you'd get some sort of contributions from guys like that the way (not to the extreme) that the Indians got shutdown relief from Andrew Miller in the middle of the game. Guess all this makes me appreciate Mike Timlin all the more. Not that it matters much. But I see the bold comment made above a lot. Juts want to make it clear imo last year was year 1. Last year we started making trades to win it all, traded prospects and made the playoffs.
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2017 15:34:39 GMT -5
Telson, I'm with you on the "all in" desperation approach as I think about/remember Theo saying don't see out one year for the another - try make the playoffs 8 years out of 10 and take your chances. All I see is 21-21 with a team that truly is mediocre and is relying on players diminished by injury, and a diminished farm system, while Year 1 of the 3 or 4 year window goes up in smoke. You talk about the relievers, and I'm sitting here thinking off the horrendous luck throughout the years the Red Sox have had with what appeared to be premier setup men. It's like the curse of Larry Andersen or something. Of course Andersen actually pitched well briefly but cost the services of Jeff Bagwell. A couple of years later young power hitter Phil Plantier was traded for an up and coming relief arm in Jose Melendez, who was injured and never contributed anything. Plantier bopped 30 HRs for the Padres the year the trade was made - in 93. Since then I remember thinking the Sox made a good deal for Mark Melancon as I always considered Jed Lowrie an injury prone guy and Melancon was up and coming, but then he struggled and Valentine buried him. So naturally they dealt him away, and while they received Brock Holt, Melancon blossomed while Hanrahan, obtained to be a closer, fizzled, which fortunately opened the door for Koji who was signed for peanuts. Then I remember being excited about the K/BB ratios of Koji, Tazawa, and the newly acquired Edward Mujica, but Mujica wound up being a bust. Then I was excited about the acquisition of Carson Smith for the pinata known as Wade Miley, but Smith has yet to contribute. Then I was intrigued by the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg for a guy who defined replacement level last season in Travis Shaw, and Thornburg is going to wind up being a zero this year. Not sure there's a major point here, but it's been crazy watching these pitchers who could have been such a big impactful help to the pen fizzle or disappoint. And I'm sure somebody will say that they're so volatile that's why you never trade anything of value for them. True, but you would have thought you'd get some sort of contributions from guys like that the way (not to the extreme) that the Indians got shutdown relief from Andrew Miller in the middle of the game. Guess all this makes me appreciate Mike Timlin all the more. I think the best takeaway is that trading for relievers is generally an exceptionally risky, and often a stupid, idea. I was OK with Thornburg, but mostly with the idea that when trading Shaw they'd sign Justin Turner. Your call on Theo's philosophy is perfect. I thought his "build a great top-to-bottom system and the rest will work itself out" ideal is, well, ideal. Good team-building requires a range of talents at a range of stages in development, imo. I don't think Dombrowski grasps that, or at least if he does he doesn't act accordingly.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2017 20:51:52 GMT -5
SoxJim,
I get what you're saying regarding Chavez. Guarantee him a spot and stick Wright and Pomeranz into the bullpen until you know they don't belong there.
But that was never going to happen. Wright, if he's considered healed from his back issues, and going into spring training he was and apparently is - as it's the new issue of the knee that's causing his issues, was heads and shoulders better than Chavez.
Wright made the all-star game last season before Farrell pinch-ran him. He wasn't some fringy starter at that point. You're telling me that his trick pitch is so unreliable it could go at anytime knocking his "reliability" down, but that's not so. Tim Wakefield was consistently inconsistent and crafted a 20 year career doing so. Phil Niekro and Hoyt Wilhelm wound up in the HOF. Joe Niekro, Tom Candiotti, Wilbur Wood, Charlie Hough, and now RA Dickey have fashioned long careers based on that one pitch so there's no reason to think that Wright, who actually has a tougher knuckler to hit than Wakefield shouldn't have been considered a mainstay once he was healed from his baserunning mishap.
There's no way you pencil in Chavez over Wright in the rotation.
As far as Pomeranz goes, don't even get me started. I'm sure you know I've screamed bloody murder about the Espinoza/Pomeranz deal since day 1. Pomeranz will pitch until his arm falls off. He'll pitch even if he resembles John Lackey circa 2011. Unless he's having TJ surgery he's going to pitch. And given what Dombrowski traded for him it won't be in the bullpen. Dombrowski doesn't mind having Travis Shaw unseat Pablo Sandoval, because he didn't sign him, but he's going to give him own investment a ton of rope. Afterall, the guy was an all-star last season.
But say for the sake of argument he's a ticking timebomb. Ok, so you have penciled in your rotation: Sale, Porcello, Price, E-Rod, and Wright. And Pomeranz is still there in case somebody gets hurt because he's not on the DL himself.
What happened to Price was totally unexpected, Wright gets a new worse injury, and Pomeranz is pitching like a guy who is injured.
But if it's Jan 1st or Feb 1st and you're Chavez, you are not going to say, cool the Red Sox are my team. All I have to do is hope somebody is indeed injured and the job is mine.
That's NOT what Chavez would think. He's thinking I want to go somewhere where if I have the best spring I make the team with the #5 spot, not I can go to the Sox, have the best spring, but if not enough guys are injured I'm going to Pawtucket to await my chance.
MLB players like to control their own destinies, not rely on others getting hurt.
Why do you think Trevor Plouffe is an Oakland A? Because he saw Sandoval and figured he wouldn't get the ABs he'd get in Oakland even though the A's are an inferior team. We all know that Sandoval is likely to get hurt, but Plouffe isn't waiting around for that. He wants to control his own destiny. So he's an Oakland A, and the Red Sox are now screwed because they traded two options away and had the next two players in line to play 3b get injured.
Players want to play - in the majors regularly.
As far as your other point goes, touche. Last year was Year 1 of the window, the year they foolishly dealt away Espinoza for Pomeranz, and spent a ton on David Price - so you are correct about that. I figure there's about three seasons left on this window. There's no way all three - Porcello, Sale, and Xander are back after the 2019 season completes and the following season JBJ and Betts become free agents and by then the team could be very much turned over. And by then the Yanks will have become the power of the division.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 21, 2017 20:56:14 GMT -5
Telson, I'm with you on the "all in" desperation approach as I think about/remember Theo saying don't see out one year for the another - try make the playoffs 8 years out of 10 and take your chances. All I see is 21-21 with a team that truly is mediocre and is relying on players diminished by injury, and a diminished farm system, while Year 1 of the 3 or 4 year window goes up in smoke. You talk about the relievers, and I'm sitting here thinking off the horrendous luck throughout the years the Red Sox have had with what appeared to be premier setup men. It's like the curse of Larry Andersen or something. Of course Andersen actually pitched well briefly but cost the services of Jeff Bagwell. A couple of years later young power hitter Phil Plantier was traded for an up and coming relief arm in Jose Melendez, who was injured and never contributed anything. Plantier bopped 30 HRs for the Padres the year the trade was made - in 93. Since then I remember thinking the Sox made a good deal for Mark Melancon as I always considered Jed Lowrie an injury prone guy and Melancon was up and coming, but then he struggled and Valentine buried him. So naturally they dealt him away, and while they received Brock Holt, Melancon blossomed while Hanrahan, obtained to be a closer, fizzled, which fortunately opened the door for Koji who was signed for peanuts. Then I remember being excited about the K/BB ratios of Koji, Tazawa, and the newly acquired Edward Mujica, but Mujica wound up being a bust. Then I was excited about the acquisition of Carson Smith for the pinata known as Wade Miley, but Smith has yet to contribute. Then I was intrigued by the acquisition of Tyler Thornburg for a guy who defined replacement level last season in Travis Shaw, and Thornburg is going to wind up being a zero this year. Not sure there's a major point here, but it's been crazy watching these pitchers who could have been such a big impactful help to the pen fizzle or disappoint. And I'm sure somebody will say that they're so volatile that's why you never trade anything of value for them. True, but you would have thought you'd get some sort of contributions from guys like that the way (not to the extreme) that the Indians got shutdown relief from Andrew Miller in the middle of the game. Guess all this makes me appreciate Mike Timlin all the more. I think the best takeaway is that trading for relievers is generally an exceptionally risky, and often a stupid, idea. I was OK with Thornburg, but mostly with the idea that when trading Shaw they'd sign Justin Turner. Your call on Theo's philosophy is perfect. I thought his "build a great top-to-bottom system and the rest will work itself out" ideal is, well, ideal. Good team-building requires a range of talents at a range of stages in development, imo. I don't think Dombrowski grasps that, or at least if he does he doesn't act accordingly. Man, I miss how routinely Theo's teams won 95 games per year consistently. I don't know if it's because Theo was a total genius or that there were usually two horrendous teams in the division - normally Tampa and Baltimore and later on Baltimore and Toronto. Probably a little in between. I do think Theo "sold out" a bit last season with the Cubs in the Chapman/Torres deal, but the Cubs haven't won in 108 years so they had that monkey on their back. I wouldn't expect him to do that again. I really, really miss Theo and will forever be ticked that John Henry wouldn't let Theo have his autonomy to run baseball ops as he saw fit. Theo is a HOFer right now if he retired this instant. That was a very special talent the Sox had and he paired himself with the best manager they ever had, somebody that Henry disrespected. It's sad that those days are gone for good. I keep hoping that one day Theo will come back as President of the Red Sox, although I doubt he would.
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Post by jimed14 on May 22, 2017 5:21:25 GMT -5
I think the best takeaway is that trading for relievers is generally an exceptionally risky, and often a stupid, idea. I was OK with Thornburg, but mostly with the idea that when trading Shaw they'd sign Justin Turner. Your call on Theo's philosophy is perfect. I thought his "build a great top-to-bottom system and the rest will work itself out" ideal is, well, ideal. Good team-building requires a range of talents at a range of stages in development, imo. I don't think Dombrowski grasps that, or at least if he does he doesn't act accordingly. Man, I miss how routinely Theo's teams won 95 games per year consistently. I don't know if it's because Theo was a total genius or that there were usually two horrendous teams in the division - normally Tampa and Baltimore and later on Baltimore and Toronto. Probably a little in between.
I do think Theo "sold out" a bit last season with the Cubs in the Chapman/Torres deal, but the Cubs haven't won in 108 years so they had that monkey on their back. I wouldn't expect him to do that again. I really, really miss Theo and will forever be ticked that John Henry wouldn't let Theo have his autonomy to run baseball ops as he saw fit. Theo is a HOFer right now if he retired this instant. That was a very special talent the Sox had and he paired himself with the best manager they ever had, somebody that Henry disrespected. It's sad that those days are gone for good. I keep hoping that one day Theo will come back as President of the Red Sox, although I doubt he would. It was also a completely different time in baseball. That was when you were able to buy teams. There is a lot more parity now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 22, 2017 14:09:21 GMT -5
How soon everyone forgets the 2004 and 2007 Championship teams rotations were Championship level because of big trades made to get elite pitchers. We traded for Pedro, Schilling, and Beckett. You can love Theo all you want but it took big trades for big time pitchers that allowed us to win those Championships. Theo didn't just build up a farm system that produced Championship level teams. One of the reason you build up a great farm system is to make trades. It's like everyone forgets the Gonzalez trade, because Theo wouldn't do that, only DD guts our system and kills our future. If I remember right Theo didn't even make the Pedro and Beckett trades. Theo is a very good GM, but he's not perfect. He wouldn't have been able to make us a great team and keep all our young players. It just couldn't have happened. Even the great Theo makes trades like the Chapman trade to win a championship. How soon people forget the mess he left behind when he left. It took the great LA trade to free up money and regain flexibility.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 19, 2017 6:56:45 GMT -5
"Early in my career, I used to think of players as assets, statistics on a spreadsheet I could use to project future performance and measure precisely how much they would impact our team on the field. I used to think of teams as portfolios, diversified collections of player assets paid to produce up to their projections to ensure the organization’s success. I grew and my team- building philosophy grew as well. The truth—as our team proved in Cleveland—is that a player’s character matters. The heartbeat matters.”
Theo Epstein
Thought that was an interesting quote that speaks to his evolution as a GM.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 2, 2017 16:22:37 GMT -5
Looking at and understanding outlier years might be the hardest thing a GM does. While some think Pomeranz 2016 was an outlier, some think it's now a new baseline. That's what DD believes and he's not alone. Same thing with Kimbrel, are the last two years outliers or a new baseline? It's far from clear. Did Porcello just turn a corner and create a new baseline or was it just a career year? Pomeraz was a bad trade. So was Kimbrel. Those were my assessments at the time of eachsnd I'll stand by them. Should've reversed the first and should've never done the second. High prices to pay for both, esp Pomeranz. You don't make that deal you likely still have one of Espinosa or Kopech and still have Sale. I hope I'm proved wrong on both these guys and they perform at All Star levels, btw. I am, after all, a Sox fan and rather win than be right. Do you double down on this? You are far from the worst on this. A pet peeve of mine is never hearing the mea culpa or worse the person that admits the mea culpa but it never slows their roll of near constant negative assessments of the home team.
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Post by danredhawk on Jul 2, 2017 17:03:17 GMT -5
Pomeraz was a bad trade. So was Kimbrel. Those were my assessments at the time of eachsnd I'll stand by them. Should've reversed the first and should've never done the second. High prices to pay for both, esp Pomeranz. You don't make that deal you likely still have one of Espinosa or Kopech and still have Sale. I hope I'm proved wrong on both these guys and they perform at All Star levels, btw. I am, after all, a Sox fan and rather win than be right. Do you double down on this? You are far from the worst on this. A pet peeve of mine is never hearing the mea culpa or worse the person that admits the mea culpa but it never slows their roll of near constant negative assessments of the home team. Dude, get used to it. Many have already doubled down on the Kimbrel trade exclaiming they liked Kimbrel - just not the 'value' of the trade. No matter how well Pom pitches it will be the same story. It's a convenient way to never be wrong and always complain. Kimbrel and Pom could never give up hits again and because Joe Poster thinks they could have been had cheaper, DD should still be fired... Just look at how poorly regarded Shaw was on this board late last year and how he is now used against DD - no matter how players or the team succeed posters will rationalize their hate for DD. They made up their minds on who he was the day he was hired. Asking them to wait to see how things play out or admit mistaken impressions is a fools errand...
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Post by larrycook on Jul 2, 2017 22:01:20 GMT -5
at the end of the day, dave's actions since he has taken over are not the moves of a calculating thoughtful leader, who has a plan.
Instead they are the moves of a reactionary fireman who lives behind the curve instead ahead of the curve. he moves from crisis to crisis plugging holes and squandering future assets instead of developing and executing a grand plan.
This team may indeed go to the playoffs this year, but it will be because they overcame dave's faults instead of as a result of dave's planning and execution.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 3, 2017 5:53:46 GMT -5
I do wonder if all the talk about Dave Dombrowski not ever having a great farm system will die down at some point.
Since Dave has taken over, he and his crew have added the following prospects- Houck Mata Dalbec Groome Cole Brannen Alex Scherrf Daniel Flores Danny Diaz Antoni Flores
That's a lot of great prospect talent, all by the Sox organization run by Dave Dombrowski. All of these kids have a great shot at bring real major league players someday.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 3, 2017 6:22:05 GMT -5
I do wonder if all the talk about Dave Dombrowski not ever having a great farm system will die down at some point. Since Dave has taken over, he and his crew have added the following prospects- Houck Mata Dalbec Groome Cole Brannen Alex Scherrf Daniel Flores Danny Diaz Antoni Flores That's a lot of great prospect talent, all by the Sox organization run by Dave Dombrowski. All of these kids have a great shot at bring real major league players someday. Totally agree here. We have picked up some very good talent the last 2 drafts including the international one yesterday. Some people on this site just seem to complain all the time. There would probably be complaints if we traded Jerry R on chemo and a bag of balls for Clay k. You look at the major trades. Kimbrel you gave up a good outfielder and allen an A ball pitcher. Who would you rather have The guy we traded or beni? Allen could, turn into another smoltz, but still a long ways to go. Sale is high quality. But to get high quality you have to give something back. Kopech is tough to give up. Moncada I am still waiting? I average 2nd with a high strikeout rate. The thomburg trade you gave up infield backup, that right now we could use. Not all trades work out. All of Theo's have not worked out. With the resources the sox have and the ownership very different than the pizza guy in Detroit I think Dave will retool.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 3, 2017 6:38:21 GMT -5
I do wonder if all the talk about Dave Dombrowski not ever having a great farm system will die down at some point. Since Dave has taken over, he and his crew have added the following prospects- Houck Mata Dalbec Groome Cole Brannen Alex Scherrf Daniel Flores Danny Diaz Antoni Flores That's a lot of great prospect talent, all by the Sox organization run by Dave Dombrowski. All of these kids have a great shot at bring real major league players someday. Give him more than 5 minutes to trade half of those guys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 3, 2017 6:51:46 GMT -5
I do wonder if all the talk about Dave Dombrowski not ever having a great farm system will die down at some point. Since Dave has taken over, he and his crew have added the following prospects- Houck Mata Dalbec Groome Cole Brannen Alex Scherrf Daniel Flores Danny Diaz Antoni Flores That's a lot of great prospect talent, all by the Sox organization run by Dave Dombrowski. All of these kids have a great shot at bring real major league players someday. Yeah, what JimEd just said. I think it's a credit to Dombrowski that he know that between Rickard and Romero he has guys that can supply him with his chips to deal - the credit being that DD knows that those two guys are talented at their positions. And I didn't get a chance to say this yesterday, but kudos to Eddie Romero Jr, again. He got the Red Sox some highly regarded talent yesterday. I'm glad they retained Romero.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 3, 2017 7:15:59 GMT -5
I do wonder if all the talk about Dave Dombrowski not ever having a great farm system will die down at some point. Since Dave has taken over, he and his crew have added the following prospects- Houck Mata Dalbec Groome Cole Brannen Alex Scherrf Daniel Flores Danny Diaz Antoni Flores That's a lot of great prospect talent, all by the Sox organization run by Dave Dombrowski. All of these kids have a great shot at bring real major league players someday. Give him more than 5 minutes to trade half of those guys. Got where you are coming from. Just wonder if dave changes his MO and looks more at developing cheap young controlled talent to be able to control the salary cap? the cap went up very little in relation to the increase in salaries. Now the bench mark is $30 mil for a pitcher and maybe as high as $40 mil, harper for a position player. just 2 guys tie up a huge percentage against the 40 man roster.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 3, 2017 20:25:16 GMT -5
at the end of the day, dave's actions since he has taken over are not the moves of a calculating thoughtful leader, who has a plan. Instead they are the moves of a reactionary fireman who lives behind the curve instead ahead of the curve. he moves from crisis to crisis plugging holes and squandering future assets instead of developing and executing a grand plan. This team may indeed go to the playoffs this year, but it will be because they overcame dave's faults instead of as a result of dave's planning and execution.
I think DD is reckless. I get the idea he gives away too much etc.
But the statement in bold imo is so far offbase.
Please don't take offense to this: I think many of you lived with rosy colored minor league Red Sox hype. I cringe every time I read "The sox could have been a dynasty. . ." They never had close to the pitching. I think many of you grossly overrate "the farm" and I've always had the feeling that many of you are okay with summer after summer watching last place baseball. When is last place $180m - $190m payroll enough for some of you? And imo without making aggressive moves, it's is brutally hard to all of a sudden win. Which is why I cringe also when I read from some we could have been "juts as good last year" or "this year" if we stood pat.
We're just going to have to agree to disagree. I am similar on board with you about DD being reckless but I think you're way off the planet not giving him at least some significant due.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 3, 2017 23:59:03 GMT -5
at the end of the day, dave's actions since he has taken over are not the moves of a calculating thoughtful leader, who has a plan. Instead they are the moves of a reactionary fireman who lives behind the curve instead ahead of the curve. he moves from crisis to crisis plugging holes and squandering future assets instead of developing and executing a grand plan. This team may indeed go to the playoffs this year, but it will be because they overcame dave's faults instead of as a result of dave's planning and execution.
I think DD is reckless. I get the idea he gives away too much etc.
But the statement in bold imo is so far offbase.
Please don't take offense to this: I think many of you lived with rosy colored minor league Red Sox hype. I cringe every time I read "The sox could have been a dynasty. . ." They never had close to the pitching. I think many of you grossly overrate "the farm" and I've always had the feeling that many of you are okay with summer after summer watching last place baseball. When is last place $180m - $190m payroll enough for some of you? And imo without making aggressive moves, it's is brutally hard to all of a sudden win. Which is why I cringe also when I read from some we could have been "juts as good last year" or "this year" if we stood pat.
We're just going to have to agree to disagree. I am similar on board with you about DD being reckless but I think you're way off the planet not giving him at least some significant due.
We're nowhere without; Sale, Price and Pomeranz. Could BC have sweet-talked Price into coming to Boston with no prior relationship? Doubt it. Would he have had the balls to deal Moncada and Kopech for Sale? Doubt it. No way does he deal Espinoza for Pomeranz. Hope Anderson makes it. But, he's never pitched in High A. Pomeranz is doing well this year and helped us a bit last year too.
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