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Post by ramireja on Jun 8, 2017 11:23:46 GMT -5
ramireja: "I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick." I would disagree. Baseball America rates him as having the best infield arm among college players in the draft. Good to know. I admittedly was looking at a site that had his tools rated at pretty much average (or slightly above average) across the board. I trust BA though!
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Post by ramireja on Jun 8, 2017 11:50:17 GMT -5
Can you guess which team has drafted the most WAR since 2000?
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Post by telson13 on Jun 8, 2017 12:42:49 GMT -5
Can you guess which team has drafted the most WAR since 2000? Oddly enough, that doesn't surprise me. They've been consistently very good on positional players, and they had a few years with the comp FA/ overspend approach. The flip side is that they've made a lot of questionable trades and had a tendency to give up on guys early. But hopefully it bodes well for a system rebuild.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2017 13:13:30 GMT -5
Can you guess which team has drafted the most WAR since 2000? Can you guess which website basically was built on this, thank god?
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 8, 2017 13:15:56 GMT -5
Can you guess which team has drafted the most WAR since 2000? The GM of the Cubs, or the assistant for the Blue ur Jays?
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 8, 2017 13:17:27 GMT -5
Definitely NOT the assistant for the Blue Jays. The Cherington drafts were a disaster (until Benintendi came along at least).
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Post by ramireja on Jun 8, 2017 13:23:14 GMT -5
I mean yeah, the article I posted says a lot about the Epstein days and says very little about our drafting since then.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 8, 2017 13:49:20 GMT -5
To be fair, the rules today prevent the manipulation that Theo creatively used (buying compensation picks, getting two picks - round and sandwich for losing FA, while only giving up one for signing), plus there was no cap, so he could encourage fallers like Hansen and Bard (and later round "tough signs"). All of that is gone now adays. You get your first round pick, and after that hope that on an even playing field you can actually find a player based on scouting.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on Jun 8, 2017 14:50:26 GMT -5
ramireja: "I've got to say, Warmoth reminds me of Chatham in a way that he has no standout tool but is seemingly solid across the board with a chance to stick at SS. I can't see our SP group reacting well to him as our first round draft pick." I would disagree. Baseball America rates him as having the best infield arm among college players in the draft. Good to know. I admittedly was looking at a site that had his tools rated at pretty much average (or slightly above average) across the board. I trust BA though! That claim about Warmth's arm surprises me. How many "college players in the draft" have the arm for mlb SS? I've read many things saying that or even all his tools are at best "above-average," e.g. . baseballamerica.com/draft/logan-warmoth-no-longer-afterthought/#WYrGfm1D7TvKzYJR.97 Relative to the 2017 draft class, Warmoth’s tools still aren’t incredibly loud. He’s average or above-average across the board, but has managed to put them all together and become one of the highest-performing middle infielders in the country. JIMOH: I've seen him play some, and the arm struck me as more Pedroia-like than definitely as SS quality, though as I said on this site I saw one nice throw from the heel, but not way back in the hole. Others: m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=draftScouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 "With average range and arm strength, he's probably better suited for second base." Sickels gathers the opinions of others: www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/14/15144070/logan-warmoth-2017-mlb-draft-ss-north-carolina"Warmoth doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world. It isn’t weak, but it isn’t a high-powered electromagnetic railgun, either. In college ball it plays well at shortstop due to his quick release and sound instincts, but skeptics worry that he’ll have to shift to second base at the highest levels. This is not a unanimous concern but it could be just enough to keep him from the top echelon of the first round" Fangraphs is positive Logan Warmoth Though he's just an average runner without the silky smooth hands typically associated with the position, Warmoth has a plus arm and good defensive feet that might allow him to play there long term. He also has plus bat speed and above average pull power, though Warmoth is vulnerable against breaking balls on the outer half. HE has a chance to play short and hit for some power and scouts think the bat might profile at third or second should he have to move.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2017 15:02:40 GMT -5
I think the issue is that most draft scouting is done by scouts for teams, and the folks we read are, for the most part, analyzing reports from elsewhere. On a recent BA podcast, JJ Cooper even said something to the effect of "I'm not a scout, I'm an analyst." So there's something to be said for the game of telephone, as well as for the fact the sources are much more disparate and over a larger amount of time.
I wouldn't spend a lot of time parsing whether a guy has a 60 tool versus a 55 or 50 tool. That's standard varaiation, imo.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jun 8, 2017 15:33:36 GMT -5
www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/06/luke_heimlich_sex_crime_surfac.html
Luke Heimlich, a junior pitcher for University Of Oregon, rated as the 43rd best prospect by BA, apparently had a felony conviction for a sex offense he committed when he was 15. It is news now apparently because he did not properly register as a sex offender.
From the article "On Saturday, Heimlich threw one of his best games. He improved his win-loss record to 11-1 with a 0.76 earned run average, a stunning rise after going 9-9 with a 3.56 ERA over his first two seasons. He has 128 strikeouts and 22 walks in 118 1/3 innings this year."
Obviously not good news for his draft status.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2017 15:47:14 GMT -5
Good lord. That's legit going to take him off some teams' boards entirely.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 8, 2017 15:47:33 GMT -5
Logan Warmoth seems to have a huge range and a bunch of different opinions. I've seen him ranked from #7 to #26. A bunch of reports question his arm, others praise it. That's a huge swing. Keith Law loves him and says he can be a plus defender at 2b and 3b if he can't stick at ss. It just makes no sense! If you don't have the arm to play ss and need to move to 2b. How can you be a plus defender at 3b? Those are just huge differences.
I get it's information from different scouts. The thing is a guys arm strength shouldn't really varry much from one scouting report to the next. It has to be one of the easiest things to scout. Even a casual fan can tell the difference between a guy that has a cannon, average arm or below average. I could understand varying opinions on his overall D, just not his arm strength.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 8, 2017 15:56:50 GMT -5
Good lord. That's legit going to take him off some teams' boards entirely. Hopefully the Sox are one of those teams.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 8, 2017 16:06:24 GMT -5
Good lord. That's legit going to take him off some teams' boards entirely. Hopefully the Sox are one of those teams. I have to agree. I'm willing to gamble on a Romero type prospect, but not a sex offender.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2017 16:16:15 GMT -5
Logan Warmoth seems to have a huge range and a bunch of different opinions. I've seen him ranked from #7 to #26. A bunch of reports question his arm, others praise it. That's a huge swing. Keith Law loves him and says he can be a plus defender at 2b and 3b if he can't stick at ss. It just makes no sense! If you don't have the arm to play ss and need to move to 2b. How can you be a plus defender at 3b? Those are just huge differences. I get it's information from different scouts. The thing is a guys arm strength shouldn't really varry much from one scouting report to the next. It has to be one of the easiest things to scout. Even a casual fan can tell the difference between a guy that has a cannon, average arm or below average. I could understand varying opinions on his overall D, just not his arm strength. An example that comes to mind: I've had days when I've wanted to put a 45 on Dubon's arm seeing him in ST, and I've had days (and read reports) that put a 60 on it. Of course, I'm also an admitted amateur, but point stands. Unless you see the guy let one loose, you don't know about the arm. Might be that he doesn't unleash it on the throws you see him make over a weekend or something. Could be that his arm was sore that weekend.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 8, 2017 16:42:18 GMT -5
These are professional scouts though and Warmoth is a top 30 prospect that played at a big time College. If I'm a scout for a big league team and he's in my region. I would have seen him live 3-4 times minimum and watched a crap load of tape on him. I would have watched him warm up and practice.
Sure watch a guy once or twice and you maybe can't get a good read on his arm. Do your due diligence and I just don't see how we have range of good to below average on his arm strength. This just screams of a bunch of scouts that didn't do there due diligence giving opinions. The thing is we have no clue which reports are more accurate.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2017 19:05:55 GMT -5
Good lord. That's legit going to take him off some teams' boards entirely. It gets worse. The girl was 6.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 8, 2017 22:28:54 GMT -5
And it started when she was 4.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 9, 2017 7:56:59 GMT -5
Definitely NOT the assistant for the Blue Jays. The Cherington drafts were a disaster (until Benintendi came along at least). Agree - for a player development/eye for talent guy he was a big disappointment in this regard. In fact, I still hold that 2013 excepted - and that was a BIG exception (with a lot of help from Theo) - Ben Cherington was a disaster for this team, on the whole trading away more talent than he acquired in return and left them with some significant albatrosses (Pablo, Castillo, Craig, maybe Hanley). Letting Theo go (and de facto, Francona) instead of Lucchino, who was forced out a couple years too late, may end up being this ownership group's biggest mistake. I'll alway love and respect them for the three WS's, which trump everything, but that was one very large self-inflicted error.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 9, 2017 8:14:29 GMT -5
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Post by southcoastghost on Jun 9, 2017 9:33:30 GMT -5
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Jun 9, 2017 10:08:39 GMT -5
If Houck or Peterson are there, I really hope they go pitcher.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 9, 2017 10:54:14 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2017 11:53:09 GMT -5
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