SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2017 Celtics offseason
|
Post by texs31 on May 31, 2017 13:13:14 GMT -5
Mine were mostly in response to him (using your comments as the platform).
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on May 31, 2017 13:55:49 GMT -5
No way should the Celts move their 1st overall pick for George. Hayward or George isn't enough to beat LeBron. The Celts could be just as good next year through probably a trade or maybe keeping the same team AND keep the number 1 pick. The idea should be unless a superstar falls into the Celts lap, keep using the draft picks to build the team. This kid should be able to give them an added spark next year from the bench, and with the year after adding another high draft pick, the team's overall talent level will begin to rival power teams from the West not named Golden State. There is a great opportunity here to not lose sight on patience while the team can still be good the next couple of years and in time the high draft picks should become major impacts as LeBron becomes a bit less dominant.
Who knows? - if you keep the star draft picks of 2017 and 2018 and you have enough of a bench, maybe LeBron can come to Boston after 2019. And if he doesn't and the Celts still had a good Isiah and got Hayward with their two you draft picks of 2017 and 2018- maybe those teams can beat LeBron. But trading for George while sending a potential tremendous number 1 pick overall player is like trying to spring through 50 feet of quicksand.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on May 31, 2017 14:40:27 GMT -5
Why would you ruin a perfectly reasonable argument by talking about LeBron coming to Boston?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on May 31, 2017 15:28:53 GMT -5
Umass, didn't want to quote the last post cause the length was getting excessive, but yea, i don't think you throw money at griffin cause I basically think that we'd be entirely stagnant. You're going to have to make a bunch of decisions on guys in the next two years anyway- projecting exactly what the cap situation will look like is a fools errand, and it's even more dicey trying to project what they could do in order to create cap space down the road. I don't think we'd even really get worse this year- I think if we could add dedmon, for example, I'd be much more interested in small ball lineups with crowder at the 4 and brown at the 3 than a similar lineup with olynyk on the floor. Besides which, there really is no guarantee that we keep Thomas beyond next season, even if I favor doing so. To make my point in the simplest possible terms, don't sacrifice flexibility, both in terms or actual lineups you can put on the court and in terms of roster construction/cap space unless you're going to get a guy who clearly addresses major needs. Suggesting that we should sign griffin this offseason still means losing olynyk, and likely dealing one of our young guards (who may become much more important depending on what happens to Bradley and Thomas). You lose depth for a guy who I personally don't believe even gets you to game 6 with Cleveland, so what's the point? Last piece of this: even if you keep one eye on next summer/george, you can re-sign olynyk if the price is right. In fact, you can be aggressive across the board in free agency as long as you're confident you're not overpaying and the contracts you sign are tradeable, which probably means on the lower end of the scale salary wise. If you sign griffin, you've basically made your move, and there's no context in which I can see Blake griffin elevating this team to a title contender and I kindof doubt I'm alone in that You are not alone. I don't want the C's to go after Blake either for most of the reasons you have put forth. Most importantly his combination of personality, injuries and his game will slide with his athleticism.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on May 31, 2017 15:47:03 GMT -5
At the risk of over setting expectations, look at the history of number 1 overall picks in just the last 8 years. They came right in a produced, except Bennett (who was a bad pick in a bad draft and everyone knew it) and Simmons who was hurt. Wiggins is the worst of the lot and he was considered a project in a weaker draft. Fultz is going to be good from the get go. Not saying he's going to be an all-star next year but he's going to produce and it's probably be hard for Stevens to not play him 30 minutes a night despite the guard depth. This is a special player.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 31, 2017 16:09:29 GMT -5
At the risk of over setting expectations, look at the history of number 1 overall picks in just the last 8 years. They came right in a produced, except Bennett (who was a bad pick in a bad draft and everyone knew it) and Simmons who was hurt. Wiggins is the worst of the lot and he was considered a project in a weaker draft. Fultz is going to be good from the get go. Not saying he's going to be an all-star next year but he's going to produce and it's probably be hard for Stevens to not play him 30 minutes a night despite the guard depth. This is a special player. You had me at Wiggins is the worst. Which he is, but man he's still a darn good young player. I just wish there were draft rankings like in football. You know where they rate them 100 to 0. 100 being players like James and Duncan. I would love to compare the rankings of guys like Irving, Wall, Paul, Rose, etc to Fultz. The only place I know that does that is nbadraft.net. They have Fultz at 100 a head of Wiggins and Irving, but behind players like Wall, Rose, Davis and Griffin.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 31, 2017 16:35:02 GMT -5
www.givemesport.com/1036152-blake-griffins-growing-injury-history-is-concerningJust so people know what type of injuries he's had. He hasn't torn his ACL twice or anything like that. I worry about the injuries cause he could be out when we need him in playoffs. I just don't worry that his athletic ability will just disappear between his age 28-31 seasons. The injuries aren't like the ones that destroyed Amare career for example. He has good size and is skilled, a small decrease in his athletic abilities won't kill him, the way it could Thomas for example.
|
|
|
Post by soxjim on May 31, 2017 17:34:07 GMT -5
Why would you ruin a perfectly reasonable argument by talking about LeBron coming to Boston? Why would you only focus on my minor point about LeBron and not about how I disagreed about trying to get George and trading away the number 1 pick? Along with your focus on LeBron and not on my points of trying to keep as many young guys as possible which others on this thread seemed okay to trade the number 1 pick?
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on May 31, 2017 17:45:05 GMT -5
And you didn't see that as me busting on you a tad? If I had a real problem with what you are saying, I'd go a little deeper. You can trust me on that.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on May 31, 2017 18:45:54 GMT -5
Why would you ruin a perfectly reasonable argument by talking about LeBron coming to Boston? Why would you only focus on my minor point about LeBron and not about how I disagreed about trying to get George and trading away the number 1 pick? Along with your focus on LeBron and not on my points of trying to keep as many young guys as possible which others on this thread seemed okay to trade the number 1 pick? He actually agreed with your post.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 31, 2017 19:30:09 GMT -5
Reminder: tone does not convey well on the internet. Don't assume that your playful post will come off that way to others, and don't assume the worst of others' posts. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 10:07:27 GMT -5
Ryan Bernardoni breaks down 5 possibilities to get space for a Max Salary (or, in 1 case, darn close). All scenarios involve renouncing the UFAs:
1. Renounce Olynyk, Cut Zeller + Mickey, Trade Rozier + Jackson, Trade or Stash Yabusele = $29.9Mn in space
2. Renounce Olynyk, Cut Zeller + Mickey, Trade Smart + Jackson = $31.09
3. Renounce Olynyk, Cut Mickey, Trade Bradley + Rozier + Jackson, Trade/Stash Yabusele = $30.8
4. Renounce Olynyk, Cut Zeller + Mickey, Trade Bradley = $34.8
5. Qualify Olynyk, Cut Zeller + Mickey, Trade Bradley + Rozier + Jackson, Trade/Stash Yabusele = $31Mn.
I don't like options 1, 3 and 5 bc one way or another, we're going to have some high priced guards. Having a guy who has already warranted rotational minutes but makes under $2Mn is big.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Jun 1, 2017 10:36:59 GMT -5
I think Yabusele is too good of a prospect to trade (those trades pretty much are salary dumps for draft picks) and I doubt he's going to agree to be stashed.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 10:52:02 GMT -5
I would agree. Ryan keeps going back to that from an original article where he assumed he was taken so high bc he agreed to stay for 2 years.
Everything we're seeing/hearing now suggest otherwise.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
|
Post by wcp3 on Jun 1, 2017 11:50:18 GMT -5
If the Celtics sign a max player, then renouncing Olynyk and trading Bradley is all but guaranteed.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2017 12:10:18 GMT -5
I have to agree that Yabu was picked so high because he agreed to being stashed two years if we had to. Now that doesn't mean he wants to or that he likes it. It's the only thing that makes sense. He was waaaay over drafted. He was ranked behind Jackson and Bentil on every draft ranking that I saw. Nevermind they took him before Zizic, which makes no sense. Unless Yabu agreed to two years, while Zizic only agreed to one year. Zizic was drawing interest from lottery teams, we got great value on him. Yabu would have been there with our first second round pick, like 95% chance.
One thing about these possibilities, cutting Jackson cost us money as Texas pointed out. If you did number #2, but kept Yabu overseas you could trade Smart for a 2018 restricted free agent like Montrezl Harrell or Lucas Nogueira and still create enough space. Lucas Nogueira would be my #1 target. He is exactly the rebounding shot blocking defensive monster we need. You might need a 3 team trade, but Toronto hardly played him after Ibaka trade. They have 3 centers that are all the same, it would seem one needs to go. I just love the Idea of trading Smart for another good young player, rather than a draft pick. I also think Nogueira helps us more next year than Yabu. Right now that's my best case Smart trade scenario.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2017 12:16:06 GMT -5
If the Celtics sign a max player, then renouncing Olynyk and trading Bradley is all but guaranteed. Trading Bradley over Smart is all but guaranteed? How? Bradley is one of the best two way players in league, Smart isn't. Seems like a no-brainer that Smart gets traded. You want Fultz to be your backup pg next year, not Smart. Nevermind trading Bradley for draft picks seems like a waste unless you could get a monster return.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 12:30:31 GMT -5
For me, it's not "all but guaranteed" but:
1. You'll get more value for Bradley 2. Bradley will probably cost more to keep next summer, especially if . . . 3. You have more control over Smart in that you make a qualifying offer and see if others have the same reservations as you do.
Very often, it isn't the lesser player that gets traded.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 12:40:28 GMT -5
We just have to be careful on the rankings we see. They are our only resource but not necessarily an indication of where teams are targeting guys.
Those C's 2nd rounders, Deyonta Davis, etc all went significantly lower than those boards. And they were passed up for non-stash type players. Maybe the NBA just wasn't as high on them as the draft geeks. I mean, Bentil hasn't landed an NBA job yet so . . .
Everything we heard/saw towards the end of the season suggested they are bringing him over. Until I hear otherwise (maybe the "minor" surgery he's having changes things?) I'm working under the assumption that his cap hold will apply this year.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2017 13:57:16 GMT -5
You could get a lot more for Bradley, but to clear salary you can only get draft picks. I wouldn't mind trading him for let's say a Favors type player. You can't get a pick this year as it would add salary, so your talking about a future pick that is unknown. You won't know exactly what pick you get or the strength of the draft. I don't trade a player of Bradley's caliber for that. Let's think best case, a team like Magic give you next years unprotected first round pick. Now you're getting decent value, but the Magic in the weak east could still be a playoff team and push that pick into the mid teens. Looking at what Jeff Teague went for, Bradley would seem to be worth a lottery pick this year, if not top 10 pick.
That's why moving Smart makes more sense. You can still likely get a future first for him or do a trade like I said earlier. While I wouldn't worry about trading Smart to Raptors, I'm not trading Bradley to them. So until I see a decent Bradley trade idea, I'm not trading him over Smart. Nevermind Bradley, Thomas, Fultz and Rozier is a much better fit, than Smart, Thomas, Fultz and Rozzier. I always said Smart and Rozzier as your backups isn't a great fit. That's two defensive minded non shooting point guards. Though I have faith Rozzier can become at least decent in time.
As to Yabu, he was ranked a tier below those other guys. Only Davis really fell well below his tier ranking. Jackson and Bentil fell, but were still in there teir because it was massive, like 30 plus players. Are you saying you believe Yabu was the top prospect available in Dannys opinion? Every single draft expert called it a reach, but it was done because they needed to stash players to go after free agents. Danny had to know most likely he wasn't going to get two max guys last year, so he would be thinking about this year. So I fully believe Yabu went where he did because he was there top rated stash guy that would stay overseas for two years. I don't think he likes it, he wanted to come over last year, but that's more likely than not why he went 16 overall. There have been reports he agreed to two years, there are no reports like that for Zizic. Do we think people are just making stuff up? That information had to come from somewhere.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 14:21:33 GMT -5
Just some thoughts to add (not necessarily intending to refute as I change my mind almost daily):
1. On Yabu, the only point I'm making is that I don't think the draft position of Bentil/Jackson are related to Yabu's draft position (which is what I interpreted from your post - if that's a misread on my part, mea culpa).
2. On people making stuff up: Well, Celtic's brass have specifically mentioned Yabu coming over here (I think Austin Ainge, for one, said as much). Is it thinking others are making stuff up? No. Is it that maybe not all of those people had the right info/sources? Probably. Until I hear otherwise, will I rely on what the C's are publically saying? Kinda have to (hard enough predicting possible outcomes without predicting what is/is not smokescreen). Not saying it's a lock but, for now, I'm assuming Yabu is on the books.
3. One point on trading Bradley though is that you can bring back $4Mn in salary in the "trade Bradley, renounce Olynyk" scenario. I haven't even begun to look at possible trades but I could see a $4Mn player plus future pick being a reasonable return (in a vacuum).
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 14:27:50 GMT -5
Another point that I'm keeping separate (bc it probably doesn't have much tangible value in this discussion as it's a non-professional gut reaction):
Sometimes I actually think it's more likely that Rozier becomes a better shooter and becomes a poor man's Bradley than it is him becoming a legitimate PG. The times I've watched, the ball dies in his hands (pounding and going nowhere) when he's the primary ball handler. At the same time, I've seen him have success off the ball.
Of course, that still makes he/Smart a rough pairing.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Jun 1, 2017 15:02:53 GMT -5
The variable in ALL of this is that "what makes the most sense" is largely driven by what Danny's true plan is.
If he's really building for post-Lebron (hoping Fultz/Brown/18BRK become the 3 stars) while ensuring you're #2 in the ECF now, then there is an argument that Smart makes more sense (he'll be cheaper, he's younger and there are still reasons to think he can get better - at least in some areas).
If he's trying to put together the best team he can for the next few years and is willing to pay AB as one of the top 3, then there is certainly rationale for keeping him.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 1, 2017 16:22:54 GMT -5
My only point on Yabu is he was over drafted because he was willing to stay overseas. If I had to guess it was a for sure one year, with a maybe second year. That's my opinion as to why he went so high. I have yet to see any reports from Celtics saying for sure he is coming over next year. If that happended, I missed it. I have seen a bunch of people talk about stashing him for another year.
What does 4 million get you? I can find a bunch of wild card type guys for Smart, but it's a lot harder with Bradley. It's basically got to be a player on a rookie level deal. Nugueira and a 1st round draft pick for Bradley works for me deal wise. I just hate sending him to one of the top teams in the East. The big exception is getting a pick this year. I've been working under the assumption that a Bradley deal happens only after you get a free agent to agree. If the Celtics just decide that Bradley is going to be traded no matter what. That changes things. Recent report said Minny and Detriot had called asking about Bradley. While it didn't tell you when, it implied it was fairly recent. Now I can't see Minny trading pick #7, but Detriot maybe trades #12 if they really want Bradley. That's right in the range of most top bigs for this year. It would give you a chance at Collins, Markkanen, Allen, the other Collins, Bam, Leaf, Patton and Giles. Does Danny love one of those guys? It's a huge collection of skilled bigs in every shape and form. It's also a good value section, in a normal draft a bunch of these guys would go higher. If Minny wanted to make a jump and would some how deal #7 it would get very interesting. Monk if he was there would make for a nice partner for Fultz long-term. Minny can't be that crazy, there Celtic loving GM is gone, scratch that.
The biggest issue is team fit. If no Bradley who starts at SG? Fultz could, but I would rather he be the third guard and backup pg. So he learns how to run the team and we don't put to much pressure on him. Starting on a playoff team is a ton of pressure for a rookie. I would much rather make him earn it, then just hand it to him.
As to Rozier I agree, that's why I want Fultz as my backup pg. Rozier would be my backup SG and defensive, energy type guy. Fultz and Rozier fit together, better than Smart and Rozier.
|
|
wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,860
|
Post by wcp3 on Jun 1, 2017 16:55:17 GMT -5
If the Celtics sign a max player, then renouncing Olynyk and trading Bradley is all but guaranteed. Trading Bradley over Smart is all but guaranteed? How? Bradley is one of the best two way players in league, Smart isn't. Seems like a no-brainer that Smart gets traded. You want Fultz to be your backup pg next year, not Smart. Nevermind trading Bradley for draft picks seems like a waste unless you could get a monster return. nah
|
|
|