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Interesting Roster Decisions Ahead...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2017 9:41:52 GMT -5
I've said this in the Brentz thread too, but the spot he should have taken should've been Taylor to the 60-day (it's very clear that Martin is getting DFA for Smith given that the only guys on the 40 not coming up are him, Johnson, Taylor, and Owens, which I wish I'd realized earlier in my tweet thread last night). The 40-man excuse is beyond weak.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 5, 2017 16:00:22 GMT -5
Meant the above to do this, but should have said explicitly - conversation about the Brentz non-call-up should go in the Brentz thread for the sake of consolidation. Thanks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2017 1:07:28 GMT -5
What was the move to activate Smith? DFA Martin, or Price to the 60-day DL?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 6, 2017 4:11:33 GMT -5
What was the move to activate Smith? DFA Martin, or Price to the 60-day DL? DFA Kyle Martin.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2017 12:05:41 GMT -5
Question: if the Sox could keep Moreland for one more year, is it worth considering? He has been pretty good, and I am not that big a believer in Travis. I might rather Moreland than go out and spend big on someone who isn't that much better (Hosmer).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2017 1:28:22 GMT -5
Old stuff is in italics.
Take 3 is prompted by this new thought: they may want to re-sign Fister because they believe Price is headed for TJ surgery. In fact, a Price struggling with an elbow that's still headed in that direction may not be one of your five best starters on a staff with Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Porcello, Wright, and Rodriguez. Usually you let a guy like that keep pitching until he definitely needs the knife, but that's because the alternative is a scrub of some sort. If they feel that a Price TJ surgery is inevitable, it may make more sense to do it this winter rather than wait until next July.
Now, this complicates matters, because it then becomes unclear that you can protect Shepherd (or Buttrey if you prefer) while keeping everyone who has options left. If you do that and you can manage to re-sign Nunez, you've run out of roster room. That would probably mean DFAing Elias.
At present they have 40 + 5 on the 60-day DL, but they also have 8 impending FA.
SP (7): Sale, Pomeranz, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson [Fister, FA] SP-O (4):Beeks, Velazquez, Elias, Owens RP (7): Kimbrel, Smith, Workman, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree [Reed, Abad, Boyer, FA] RP-O (4): Scott, Taylor, Maddox, Shepherd [Ross, non-tendered and re-signed] C (3): Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B/DH (1): H. Ramirez [Moreland, FA] 1B/DH-O (1): Travis INF (5): Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers; Holt, Marrero [Nunez, FA; Rutledge offered back to Colorado or DFA] INF-O (2): Hernandez, Lin OF (4): Betts, Bradley, Benintendi; Brentz [Young, Davis FA] OF-O (1): Castillo
That's 39.
Offseason moves:
Sign J.D. Martinez, trade Hanley Ramirez, eating whatever salary it takes.
Re-sign Fister and Moreland; trade or DFA Marrero (-> 40)
Sign or trade for a LH setup guy and trade Hembree. That still leaves you with 13 pitchers you want on the roster if healthy (14 including Thornburg), which is the usual number going into ST, and in the unlikely event you have to deal one at some point, you still have Scott as an MLB-caliber guy in Pawtucket. As a general rule, the 14th guy on your depth chart sees plenty of MLB action. Ross could bounce back and compete for that role as well; there should be room on the 40 for him after ST.
Try to re-sign Nunez; if successful, DFA Elias. Trading Castillo for value is another possibility.
Note that if you do sign Nunez, and everyone is healthy, this leaves you with 14 guys for the 13 position players. Holt seems like the likeliest guy to move, with Brentz the other possibility (unless you've dealt Castillo). But I think holding onto your depth through ST is the smart thing to do. At some point, you expect to trade Swihart or Leon and add Hernandez or Lin (if you dealt Holt) or Castillo (if you dealt Brentz).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 17, 2017 7:22:15 GMT -5
[...] Offseason moves:Sign J.D. Martinez, trade Hanley Ramirez, eating whatever salary it takes. Re-sign Fister and Moreland; trade or DFA Marrero (-> 40) [...] Lotsa good and fun ideas. Getting Martinez to be our DH and trading Hanley both seem like fantastic ideas. But are they reasonable fantasies? 1) Which team would want Hanley as their DH even for free? 2) What are the chances that Martinez will want to sign as a DH? Are there examples of top-notch free-agents with almost no experience at DH who at age 30 decide they want to sign with a team that will not let them play the field? And are you paying him DH money or LF money? Wouldn't signing Martinez have to mean giving him Benintendi's job and trading him? Or JBJ?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2017 10:42:21 GMT -5
[...] Offseason moves:Sign J.D. Martinez, trade Hanley Ramirez, eating whatever salary it takes. Re-sign Fister and Moreland; trade or DFA Marrero (-> 40) [...] Lotsa good and fun ideas. Getting Martinez to be our DH and trading Hanley both seem like fantastic ideas. But are they reasonable fantasies? 1) Which team would want Hanley as their DH even for free? 2) What are the chances that Martinez will want to sign as a DH? Are there examples of top-notch free-agents with almost no experience at DH who at age 30 decide they want to sign with a team that will not let them play the field? And are you paying him DH money or LF money? Wouldn't signing Martinez have to mean giving him Benintendi's job and trading him? Or JBJ? 1) He's done plenty of DHing in his career. He has 92 PA since he turned into himself (last 4 years) and is .321 / .380 / .580, better numbers than his overall .298 / .361 / .568. Consistent with that, he's also been a great PH in his career, 943 OPS versus 851 overall, and a lot of that was when he was with Houston and not yet a regular. 2) He's a bad OF. He projects as -11 R / 150 (regressed from -19 the last 2 years) as a RF, which is the equivalent of -7 in LF. He's basically Chris Young, except he can really, really hit. 3) The market for bat-only guys is weak. He was worth surprisingly little as a rental and Lucas Duda was worth almost nothing. Buster Only writes about that here.4) DDo was the GM who plucked him from nonentity-ville, so you'd think he'd be on board with a reunion. 5) Hanley can still play an acceptable 1B. It's pretty clear that he can still hit when healthy. He's also been a very good teammate here. There will be a salary figure where some team will take a shot that he's healthy.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2017 11:35:36 GMT -5
We won't go there again, except to say that what you're predicting, if it happens, I'll call the single worst Red Sox personnel decision of the Theo-and-after era. Not because the ramifications are so large, but because the correct decision has zero cost. We can spin this off into another thread, but it's the Lackey trade. The Lackey trade was the worst. They traded a mid-rotation-to-better starter due to make like 85 cents the next season - one in which they planned to contend - for an expensive, broken hitter and a lottery ticket pitcher. That was nonsense in three ways: as a roster construction decision, as a value maximizing decision, and as a talent evaulation decision. And it because Cherington backed himself into a corner where he decided he needed to both a) trade Lackey, and b) get MLB talent in return. How many teams were in a position to trade MLB talent for a veteran? Just the Cardinals. Cherington came up with a process where he absolutely needed to trade a cheap, good pitcher to the St. Louis Cardinals, and started his negotiations from there. And, talk about large ramifications - the Red Sox finished in last place again in 2015, while Lackey posted a 5.7 bWAR for a team that won 100 games. They then let him go as a free agent and drafted Dylan Carlson with the comp pick. Not calling up Brentz in September was a similar level of nonsense, in that there is no rationale for it either in roster construction or talent evaluation and that it just is free value that they are leaving on the table, but without the same ramifications. You may indeed want to spin this off, because it has inspired the following little analysis of judging transactions. There are five distinct ways of winning a trade or other transaction. It depends on whether you were projected (expected) to win it, and how much uncertainty there was about the projection. 1) You were projected to win the trade, with little uncertainty. This is simply a stupid trade or move for the losing side. You rarely see them any longer. I suppose it's a great move for the winning side, but usually, it just falls in your lap. The Astros asked for this guy instead of Bagwell. 2) You were projected to win the trade, but with a lot of uncertainty. Either the guys you were getting had downside risk (e.g., for health reasons), or the guys you were giving up were lottery ticket types. This is a sound trade or move. You correctly assessed the risk and saw that the low probability outcomes wouldn't happen. It's an unsound trade for the loser. 3) You were projected to lose the trade, but with a lot of uncertainty. Either you were getting lottery tickets and cashed them in, or you were dumping guys who were about to crater. This is a savvy trade or move, and an unsavvy trade for the loser. You went against the consensus and saw that the low-probability outcome wold happen. Drafting Dustin Pedroia was a savvy move. For a while there it looked like the Sale trade might have been savvy on our part. Now it's looking like it might not even be a win in the long run, and we're crossing our fingers it won't become unsound. 4) and 5) You were projected to lose the trade, with little uncertainty. And yet you won it anyway! This is either a lucky trade or move, or a downright smart trade or move. It's usually not hard to tell the difference (stupid trades get turned into lucky ones largely because of serious, unexpected injuries. Again, you don't see them much any more). Teams that lose a smart trade can't really be faulted for losing it, since nobody else saw what the winner saw. The Astros dumping J.D. Martinez was simply a bad move. The Lackey trade was a sound trade for the Cards about an unsound trade for us, but it's closer to being savvy / unsavvy than it is to being stupid. There was a chance Kelly would become a #3 starter and a chance Craig would bounce back. It's an OK trade if either one of those happens, and a win if they both happen. Neither did. The problem here was not so much the underlying logic, but a bad assessment of the odds of Kelly or Craig being better than they projected to be. Not protecting Bentz would be a stupid move, because Brentz projects to be a useful, valuable player (in fact, his best comp is probably Khris Davis), and if you let him go, there is zero uncertainty about what value you get (nothing). We would be projected to lose that move, with relatively little uncertainty (although a decent amount as to whether we lose a moderate amount or a very large one). So that's what I had in mind: the stupidest transaction of the Theo-and-after era. There have been many, many moves that have been more unsound or unsavvy than that would be stupid (when measured in WAR), but it would be the clear winner in the most extreme category.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2017 21:12:27 GMT -5
The Red Sox plan to explore a new deal for utilityman Eduardo Nunez after the season, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. Nunez is currently out with a knee injury, but when healthy, the impending free agent has been a valuable addition since the Red Sox acquired him from the Giants in July. The 30-year-old has slashed an excellent .319/.351/.534 with eight home runs and six steals across 171 plate appearances as a member of the Red Sox, with whom he has lined up at second base, shortstop and third base. Nunez’s future may affect fellow utilityman Brock Holt’s, as Mastrodonato relays that he could be a non-tender candidate in the offseason. Holt was a key piece for the Red Sox from 2014-15, but injuries have slowed his career since then. The 2015 All-Star has taken 140 trips to the plate this season and batted a meek .175/.286/.208. Holt, 29, is on a $1.95MM salary this year and is scheduled to go through arbitration for the second time in the offseason. He’s controllable through 2019.www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/al-notes-red-sox-rays-tribe-yankees.html
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 17, 2017 21:25:38 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2017 9:47:24 GMT -5
No. No. bWAR was completely wrong for a day at most (it's fixed again) because of a data bug in their source. If CNN lists Trump's approval rating at 70% for a day due to a bug in their feed from FiveThirtyEight.com, that doesn't mean you should conclude that maybe Fox News, InfoWars or Breitbart is more reliable after all. fWAR can be ignored because studies of UZR show that it adds nothing to DRS.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2017 10:16:48 GMT -5
No. No. bWAR was completely wrong for a day at most (it's fixed again) because of a data bug in their source. If CNN lists Trump's approval rating at 70% for a day due to a bug in their feed from FiveThirtyEight.com, that doesn't mean you should conclude that maybe Fox News, InfoWars or Breitbart is more reliable after all. fWAR can be ignored because studies of UZR show that it adds nothing to DRS. And bWAR must be giving a ton of defensive credit to a guy that has never played 900 innings at any position, doesn't visually look all that spectacular and has a wRC+ of 37. You can buy into it, I'm not. I also seriously doubt if the Sox will tender him when they have several better alternatives at less cost. ADD: And if you are following American 'news' sources rather than sources with actual data like Reuters polls you are going to be in for a huge shock next election.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 21, 2017 6:34:28 GMT -5
Before I wanted the Sox to lock up all the young kids, I coming around to thinking Year to year is not all that bad. Also I noticed all there big money contracts are expiring around the same time when they have to make decisions on who to sign for the future.
I hope they give Swihart every opportunity to win a job next season. I 'm impressed with Lin too. I don't know about the rumors but Nunez extension would be a mistake. He is looking to cash in one more time. He will get it too. Actually I believe this team should clean out as much as possible. Expiring contracts let go. Maybe one bat but they are stuck with Hanley for one more year. Are they gonna give Travis a shot at first? Looks like there high on Chavis so where does that go? DH or infield. I want them to solve first internally between that and hopefully Okimey I still believe in already has 100 at bats at AA. Next year gives them an excellent chance to see what these guys have or move on. Catcher I love Vasquez progression . Leon has fell back which opens Swihart. I think this team can build a strong bench. Petey is not getting any younger. Lin, or Marrero with Holt. I hope Price rebounds next year.
If you look at this team unless a blockbuster trade it's gonna look the same pretty much. If they can afford him maybe promote Castillo if he fits under the luxury cap. He replaces Young. We'll see. I just don't want any huge new commitments outside the roster. Right now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 20, 2018 10:15:01 GMT -5
This thread was about roster decisions occurring last June. No reason to bump it. Locking it up. New discussion moved to the ST thread.
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