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2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 27, 2017 13:26:02 GMT -5
A source with knowledge of the team's thinking told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand that Nunez could be the only bat the Red Sox add before Monday's non-waiver Trade Deadline, as Boston's front office is counting on its star players to bounce back with a strong final two months. "They need their existing players to collectively hit to their potential and their offense won't look as bad as it does now," the source said. "With [Xander] Bogaerts, [Mitch] Moreland, [Andrew] Benintendi and [Mookie] Betts not producing at all lately, the hope is that everyone comes out of their funks at the same time and they make teams pay the price over the next few weeks." Since the All-Star break, only Dustin Pedroia (.909 OPS) and Hanley Ramirez (.779 OPS) have been productive for the Red Sox. The OPS numbers of their other regulars -- Betts (.695), Benintendi (.500), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.521) Bogaerts (.382) and Moreland (.280) have been below expectations. As for further moves, the source said the Red Sox are now focused on adding an arm to the bullpen to help get the ball to closer Craig Kimbrel. m.mlb.com/news/article/242089356/mlb-buzz-trade-talk-deals-and-rumors/
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 27, 2017 13:31:29 GMT -5
Yes to the bullpen needing another guy, and the key relevant statement of fact is Fernando Abad is your best LHR. He ranks 29th out 182 relievers against them (wOBA allowed), but 105th out of 163 against RHB. You have an actual vacant position: the LHR who is solid against RHP and is thus not a specialist. Meanwhile, vs. RHB, Kimbrel is 2nd, Kelly is 5th, and Barnes is 24th. Neshek was 14th. I'd rather upgrade the spot that ranks 105th. The obvious targets are Justin Wilson and Brad Hand. Both are overqualified for the role as Kelly's running mate, but if you're going to add a stud, it's beyond insane to look at any RHP when either of those guys would give you a bullpen with much better balance and flexibility. Kimbrel Wilson or Hand Barnes Kelly & Abad Smith or Hembree or Workman Boyer or Hembree That's a tremendous bullpen. I think we generally agree on the basics here, but there are a few specifics I'd argue: 1. Getting Neshek wouldn't have precluded getting a lefty - looking at what the Phillies traded him for, there'd have been plenty left in the system to get Brad Hand as well. I'm guessing his injury history played a role, and it's very possible (I'd even say likely) thatthe Phils liked a couple of the guys they got better than the consensus. But it wasn't the return I quite expected for a reliever of his caliber, given some of the hauls that stuf relievers have gotten in the last two years. 2. Unlike for right-handers, there is a very good internal option as a lefty in the pen - Jalen Beeks His curve is really, really tough for lefties to pick up, and he's good enough against righties that he wouldn't have to be a strict LOOGY either. And they could easily go into next season stretching him out as a starter again, so as not to lost that long-term depth. I'm split on whether I think he's a starter or reliever going forward, which is why I'd like to see him continue starting until he shows he can't. But he has three options years to go back and figure that out, and they need that help now. 3. So, this won't surprise anyone, but I'm still a Joe Kelly skeptic. 36 innings with 26 Ks and 16 walks but a low ERA despite that isn't going to convince me that a pitcher who I didn't think was good is, in fact, good.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 27, 2017 13:31:57 GMT -5
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Post by juanpena on Jul 27, 2017 13:42:59 GMT -5
Barnes has been solid for his last 12 appearance. But 12 appearances does not make him Andrew Miller.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2017 14:04:37 GMT -5
Yes to the bullpen needing another guy, and the key relevant statement of fact is Fernando Abad is your best LHR. He ranks 29th out 182 relievers against them (wOBA allowed), but 105th out of 163 against RHB. You have an actual vacant position: the LHR who is solid against RHP and is thus not a specialist. Meanwhile, vs. RHB, Kimbrel is 2nd, Kelly is 5th, and Barnes is 24th. Neshek was 14th. I'd rather upgrade the spot that ranks 105th. The obvious targets are Justin Wilson and Brad Hand. Both are overqualified for the role as Kelly's running mate, but if you're going to add a stud, it's beyond insane to look at any RHP when either of those guys would give you a bullpen with much better balance and flexibility. Kimbrel Wilson or Hand Barnes Kelly & Abad Smith or Hembree or Workman Boyer or Hembree That's a tremendous bullpen. I think we generally agree on the basics here, but there are a few specifics I'd argue: 1. Getting Neshek wouldn't have precluded getting a lefty - looking at what the Phillies traded him for, there'd have been plenty left in the system to get Brad Hand as well. I'm guessing his injury history played a role, and it's very possible (I'd even say likely) thatthe Phils liked a couple of the guys they got better than the consensus. But it wasn't the return I quite expected for a reliever of his caliber, given some of the hauls that stuf relievers have gotten in the last two years. 2. Unlike for right-handers, there is a very good internal option as a lefty in the pen - Jalen Beeks His curve is really, really tough for lefties to pick up, and he's good enough against righties that he wouldn't have to be a strict LOOGY either. And they could easily go into next season stretching him out as a starter again, so as not to lost that long-term depth. I'm split on whether I think he's a starter or reliever going forward, which is why I'd like to see him continue starting until he shows he can't. But he has three options years to go back and figure that out, and they need that help now. 3. So, this won't surprise anyone, but I'm still a Joe Kelly skeptic. 36 innings with 26 Ks and 16 walks but a low ERA despite that isn't going to convince me that a pitcher who I didn't think was good is, in fact, good. You've probably seen my edit where I thought of Beeks. I saw him pitch what was, at the time, one of the best games of his career last year (in Wilmington) and became a believer. RHB couldn't tell his changeup from his two-seamer and looked silly against it. In retrospect that was an unusually good day for the pitch at the time, but as the above splits show, he's continued making progress with it. Since I can't find the sort of guy I want as a LHR -- the Royals' Scott Alexander fits the bill perfectly, but they appear to be buyers, not sellers -- I'm actually comfortable sticking with internal options for the pen. Speier just speculated that the Sox could hold all their trade chips to try to make a move for an elite bat in the offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if they do nothing further now, and wouldn't mind it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 15:11:22 GMT -5
The Sox have enough right handed relievers to fill an entire bullpen. Workman Kimbrel Smith Kelly Boyer Barnes Hembree They probably just need a left handed reliever to fill one more role that they currently don't have. Neshek isn't really needed in this bullpen. There is one pitcher that I would rather have than Neshek on that list. There's 2 for me if Carson Smith comes back healthy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2017 15:21:20 GMT -5
There is one pitcher that I would rather have than Neshek on that list. There's 2 for me if Carson Smith comes back healthy. The problem is that you're not going to know if Carson Smith is coming back healthy until well after the trade deadline. Given the number of starts and stops in his rehab, I would operate under the assumption that he will not come back as a setup-quality reliever this season. If he does, it's a bonus.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2017 15:58:30 GMT -5
We're not going to get anyone by the deadline that's going to make the difference between winning the division/beating Cleveland/beating Houston, are we?
Asking for a friend. I'll hang up and listen...
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 17:39:15 GMT -5
There's 2 for me if Carson Smith comes back healthy. The problem is that you're not going to know if Carson Smith is coming back healthy until well after the trade deadline. Given the number of starts and stops in his rehab, I would operate under the assumption that he will not come back as a setup-quality reliever this season. If he does, it's a bonus. I tend to disagree here. The Sox have been pretty cautious with Smith because they might be saving him for the last two months of the baseball year (September, October). I think he'll be quality when he comes back and I think the Sox are keeping their fingers crossed he comes back with quality stuff too. He might not be 2015 good, but still a good enough upgrade for the 7th and 8th innings. The only question I have about Smith is the back to back days in October playoff baseball when he does comeback.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 17:47:31 GMT -5
The Sox have enough right handed relievers to fill an entire bullpen. Workman Kimbrel Smith Kelly Boyer Barnes Hembree They probably just need a left handed reliever to fill one more role that they currently don't have. Neshek isn't really needed in this bullpen. Boyer needs to go. Kelly is injured. Abad has been his normal great self against lefties. Come playoffs I would guess Pomeranz goes to pen. All reports have use linked to RHR and it makes sense. -Kelly will be back at some point. He's progressing nicely. -Boyer doesn't need to go -Pomeranz is your second or third best starter right now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 27, 2017 18:27:47 GMT -5
Boyer needs to go. Kelly is injured. Abad has been his normal great self against lefties. Come playoffs I would guess Pomeranz goes to pen. All reports have use linked to RHR and it makes sense. -Kelly will be back at some point. He's progressing nicely. -Boyer doesn't need to go -Pomeranz is your second or third best starter right now. So no to Neshek, but you want to keep Boyer. That makes no sense at all. Unless Porcello gets worse or Pomeranz is lights out I still think Pomeranz goes to pen for playoffs. It just makes sense. A lot can happen between now and playoffs, but that's my prediction right now. Kelly is still so so in my book. Not giving up a lot of hits, but high walks and low strikeouts.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 27, 2017 19:35:10 GMT -5
Possible Mets/Red Sox trade The Boston Red Sox have been connected to several New York Mets players over the last few weeks, including Asdrubal Cabrera, T.J. Rivera and Addison Reed, but there is a potential deal that would center around Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Red Sox, even after adding Eduardo Nunez late Tuesday night, are considering first-base DH types as a way to further boost their offense, as first noted by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This is speculation, but Mets outfielders Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce could be possibilities (Granderson is owed about $5.5 million; Bruce about $4.5 million; the Sox might want cash in such a deal due to their luxury-tax concerns). Both Granderson and Bruce are set to be free agents after the season. Granderson is batting .223 with 13 home runs and 37 RBIs this season, while Bruce is hitting .262 with 25 home runs and 67 RBIs. www.chatsports.com/mlb/a/mlb-trade-rumors-possible-mets-red-sox-deal-twins-could-still-be-sellers-more-34762
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 19:59:16 GMT -5
-Kelly will be back at some point. He's progressing nicely. -Boyer doesn't need to go -Pomeranz is your second or third best starter right now. So no to Neshek, but you want to keep Boyer. That makes no sense at all. Unless Porcello gets worse or Pomeranz is lights out I still think Pomeranz goes to pen for playoffs. It just makes sense. A lot can happen between now and playoffs, but that's my prediction right now. Kelly is still so so in my book. Not giving up a lot of hits, but high walks and low strikeouts. Boyer has been pretty decent so far. I didn't say no to Neshek but he wasn't a great need for this club. Pomeranz has been money all year while Eduardo has been really shaky since coming back from a knee injury. Porcello is your 4th best starter overall this year. Kelly is getting a ton of groundballs this year also.
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Post by doctorduck21 on Jul 27, 2017 20:00:44 GMT -5
Possible Mets/Red Sox trade The Boston Red Sox have been connected to several New York Mets players over the last few weeks, including Asdrubal Cabrera, T.J. Rivera and Addison Reed, but there is a potential deal that would center around Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Red Sox, even after adding Eduardo Nunez late Tuesday night, are considering first-base DH types as a way to further boost their offense, as first noted by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This is speculation, but Mets outfielders Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce could be possibilities (Granderson is owed about $5.5 million; Bruce about $4.5 million; the Sox might want cash in such a deal due to their luxury-tax concerns). Both Granderson and Bruce are set to be free agents after the season. Granderson is batting .223 with 13 home runs and 37 RBIs this season, while Bruce is hitting .262 with 25 home runs and 67 RBIs. www.chatsports.com/mlb/a/mlb-trade-rumors-possible-mets-red-sox-deal-twins-could-still-be-sellers-more-34762 I would like Bruce as a DH/1B option. Would add much needed pop to the lineup. Not sure on what it would cost to get him but it would be a nice get
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2017 20:14:12 GMT -5
The Red Sox, according to John Morosi, are looking at Brandon Kintzler as a reliever to deal for.
I think the Mets present the best one stop shopping. Looking over what's left, I think that Justin Wilson is going to be ridiculously expensive to get in a deal, and I think that Addison Reed is the best option out there, and looking at what are the best available bats left over, Jay Bruce is the best candidate.
I'm not sure what the Mets would be looking for. I'd guess Chavis, although I really don't want to part with him, especially for rentals. The Sox really lack power in the organization, this kid has it, and I don't want to see the Sox give him up.
But if the Sox can get those two from the Mets, I think this team would be fine as is.
This move, assuming Hanley can play 1b, would give the Sox a LH batter to hit cleanup as Bruce would DH. It would get Moreland out of the lineup and relegate him to late inning defense and a useful LH power bat off the bench to PH for the catchers.
The lineup would look like (as Farrell like LRLR, etc, and insists on Betts leadoff):
Betts Benintendi Pedroia Bruce Ramirez Bradley Bogaerts Devers/Nunez Vazquez/Leon
The bullpen would be:
Kimbrel/Reed/Barnes/Hembree/Boyer/Workman/Abad.
And in the post-season one of the lefties not in the rotation can become the lead lefty guy out of the pen whether it's Pomeranz or E-Rod or even Price as I do recall Price pitching well in the late innings once upon a time in say 2008. To me, that lessens the need for a Justin Wilson.
Then once Kelly is back, you have Kimbrel, Reed, Kelly, Barnes, along with a competition between Boyer, Workman, and even Smith. And even better Doug Fister is nowhere to be found!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 20:40:52 GMT -5
How good has Bruce looked at first base this year?
Or has he not played there all season?
I thought the Mets converted him to first base this year but I can't find it on Fangraphs.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2017 20:50:36 GMT -5
I am not a Jay Bruce fan, esp off position and in the second half.
Consider the lux tax a hard cap, folks. No matter what spin is coming out of Yawkey way. Gotta ride it out with what they have and may be able to get without going over, which looks pretty thin at this point. TB's been making deals and NYY will likely make one more, too.
I like this team if it can get to the playoffs, at least in a 5 game series. I just don't know if this offense can help out the pitching enough to get there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 20:55:16 GMT -5
I am not a Jay Bruce fan, esp off position and in the second half. Consider the lux tax a hard cap, folks. No matter what spin is coming out of Yawkey way. Gotta ride it out with what they have and may be able to get without going over, which looks pretty thin at this point. TB's been making deals and NYY will likely make one more, too. I like this team if it can get to the playoffs, at least in a 5 game series. I just don't know if this offense can help out the pitching enough to get there. If the Sox sent back say a Chris Young back in the deal, they could add both Bruce and Reed and stay under the tax threshold. He's a better hitter then Moreland. I really like the idea of Bruce the more and more it gets mentioned.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on Jul 27, 2017 21:10:35 GMT -5
How good has Bruce looked at first base this year? Or has he not played there all season? I thought the Mets converted him to first base this year but I can't find it on Fangraphs. With Duda gone, he's playing first base tonight against the Padres. Other than taking throws, I haven't seen him field any grounders.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 27, 2017 21:12:30 GMT -5
I am not a Jay Bruce fan, esp off position and in the second half. Consider the lux tax a hard cap, folks. No matter what spin is coming out of Yawkey way. Gotta ride it out with what they have and may be able to get without going over, which looks pretty thin at this point. TB's been making deals and NYY will likely make one more, too. I like this team if it can get to the playoffs, at least in a 5 game series. I just don't know if this offense can help out the pitching enough to get there. If the Sox sent back say a Chris Young back in the deal, they could add both Bruce and Reed and stay under the tax threshold. He's a better hitter then Moreland. I really like the idea of Bruce the more and more it gets mentioned. Not sure what Young does for the Mets. My guess is they'd ask instead for Chavis or Mata. I'd rather go after Smoak, even though he's probably Mr. Outlier/Outperformer 2017. Has dealt with AL pitching, possess,a short, affordable contract and can play the position for the most part. Likely cost you Chavis or Shaw (if Tor believes in Shaw) plus another A-level player not named Groome. But if the F.O. really thinks this team can get to a game 7 they should do it. Y'all know by now I've been looking for a truly bold move, but the signs are showing me that John Henry will be holding firm on that luxury tax line. This is the best I can come up with short of trading a starting pitching asset from the active roster (Pomeranz/Erod) which I think could happen a couple days ago, but now I see they are less likely to take that chance.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2017 21:13:57 GMT -5
I am not a Jay Bruce fan, esp off position and in the second half. Consider the lux tax a hard cap, folks. No matter what spin is coming out of Yawkey way. Gotta ride it out with what they have and may be able to get without going over, which looks pretty thin at this point. TB's been making deals and NYY will likely make one more, too. I like this team if it can get to the playoffs, at least in a 5 game series. I just don't know if this offense can help out the pitching enough to get there. If the Sox sent back say a Chris Young back in the deal, they could add both Bruce and Reed and stay under the tax threshold. He's a better hitter then Moreland. I really like the idea of Bruce the more and more it gets mentioned. I would think if the Sox sent back Young who the Mets have absolutely no use for, they'd have to send an even better prospect to head up the trade. From what I read the Mets would like to package Reed with somebody to get a better return instead of dealing their assets individually, kind of like what the ChiSox did. My guess is they could probably extract a good prospect (which kind of scares me away) from the Red Sox to get both Reed and Bruce.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 21:14:38 GMT -5
How good has Bruce looked at first base this year? Or has he not played there all season? I thought the Mets converted him to first base this year but I can't find it on Fangraphs. With Duda gone, he's playing first base tonight against the Padres. Other than taking throws, I haven't seen him field any grounders. Wow yeah they are definitely auditioning him there tonight. No doubt.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 21:17:38 GMT -5
If the Sox sent back say a Chris Young back in the deal, they could add both Bruce and Reed and stay under the tax threshold. He's a better hitter then Moreland. I really like the idea of Bruce the more and more it gets mentioned. Not sure what Young does for the Mets. My guess is they'd ask instead for Chavis or Mata. They'd definitely ask for Mata and/or Chavis. Young is just money sent back so the Sox can stay under the line (evening out the money).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 27, 2017 21:19:12 GMT -5
If the Sox sent back say a Chris Young back in the deal, they could add both Bruce and Reed and stay under the tax threshold. He's a better hitter then Moreland. I really like the idea of Bruce the more and more it gets mentioned. I would think if the Sox sent back Young who the Mets have absolutely no use for, they'd have to send an even better prospect to head up the trade. From what I read the Mets would like to package Reed with somebody to get a better return instead of dealing their assets individually, kind of like what the ChiSox did. My guess is they could probably extract a good prospect (which kind of scares me away) from the Red Sox to get both Reed and Bruce. I think the trade you're proposing could be the play which the Sox could go for. Especially if Bruce proves he can play a competent first base tonight. I don't think they'd need to add more value because of Young. Young would be just a throw in.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 27, 2017 21:39:24 GMT -5
I would think if the Sox sent back Young who the Mets have absolutely no use for, they'd have to send an even better prospect to head up the trade. From what I read the Mets would like to package Reed with somebody to get a better return instead of dealing their assets individually, kind of like what the ChiSox did. My guess is they could probably extract a good prospect (which kind of scares me away) from the Red Sox to get both Reed and Bruce. I think the trade you're proposing could be the play which the Sox could go for. Especially if Bruce proves he can play a competent first base tonight. I don't think they'd need to add more value because of Young. Young would be just a throw in. He's a throw-in the Mets don't need. I'm sure they're looking to shed $, not take any back, not that I have any problem saying see ya to Young as I would be more than happy to see Brentz get a shot at this point. I'm leery of the price they'd have to pay. I wouldn't deal Chavis or Mata for any rentals and at this point I don't think there is any impact player the Red Sox would be chasing that would be worthy of parting with either of those two guys. If the Mets package Reed with Cabrera elsewhere I'd be fine with it. Bruce by himself shouldn't be that costly in talent and the Sox could find a reliever like Kintzler who'd also be a rental. He's not as good as Reed but he's reasonably effective and would cost a lesser player I'd think. Two or three lesser players is better than dealing away one of your top prospects, even if I do think in totality Reed and Bruce are the best package to get. I just can't shake the feeling that one of Chavis, Mata, and/or Shawaryn are goners, with my sense that if they do the package deal, Chavis is a goner and I won't be too happy about it.
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