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Post by vinscully on Jul 20, 2017 9:30:19 GMT -5
Question for me is taking money out of the equation would they even bring him up? A 2.4% BB rate this year and 5.6% last year. So that's 4.3% over 2 years in 700+ PA's. Sure his power is up a bit this year but I still think he'd get eaten alive by major league pitching. I'd rather the AB's go to Brentz.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 20, 2017 14:06:38 GMT -5
Question for me is taking money out of the equation would they even bring him up? A 2.4% BB rate this year and 5.6% last year. So that's 4.3% over 2 years in 700+ PA's. Sure his power is up a bit this year but I still think he'd get eaten alive by major league pitching. I'd rather the AB's go to Brentz. Castillo actually has tremendous splits against LHP this year: 384 OBP/.961 OPS so it would be likely, if it weren't for the contract, that if they needed another bat off the bench he'd be up.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 20, 2017 15:16:53 GMT -5
Question for me is taking money out of the equation would they even bring him up? A 2.4% BB rate this year and 5.6% last year. So that's 4.3% over 2 years in 700+ PA's. Sure his power is up a bit this year but I still think he'd get eaten alive by major league pitching. I'd rather the AB's go to Brentz. It seems as though he has made some improvements to his swing based on power, but even if that's a fluke he's still a 1-win player which would easily make him a viable backup on most teams. If it weren't for the contract I don't think he would have ever gone to AAA. (he would probably have been traded) But I also agree that Brentz would be ahead of him at this point, so he's in a tough situation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2017 12:15:52 GMT -5
Regarding Castillo and others whose contracts don't equate to their performance... what are your thought on a player agreeing to rip up and renegotiate the contract to make himself more marketable? Didn't ARod try something like this years ago and the union or MLB reject it? I know MLB contracts are guaranteed, as opposed to the NFL, where we often see players/teams renegotiate deals. Not an answer to your question, but didn't Jason Bay agree to give up salary when the Mets were done with him? Barely, and only in the sense that he was paid everything owed except it was deferred, so the present-day value dropped. www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/big-win-for-bay-mets-payments-will-be-deferred-over-only-two-years/Given that he then signed with Seattle for $1M, he came out ahead. The Mets were only able to delay the payments to Bay, but were still on the hook for all of the money, and I presume the contract still counted toward the CBT the same way it otherwise would have. Castillo is a useful player still and could at some point factor into the Red Sox lineup, so there's no point in cutting him - they're paying him the full contract anyway.
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brendan98
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 27, 2017 13:34:10 GMT -5
I have a few questions regarding Rusney Castillo and am hoping someone can help me out.
1) Castillo has performed quite well in AAA this season with a .824 OPS, hitting for more power, and perhaps most interestingly excelling vs LHP (something the Sox have a need for) with a 1.018 OPS vs lefties. Has anyone had a chance to watch Castillo this year, or heard anything with regards to changes he’s made that might explain the significant offensive strides he seems to have made? Just looking at numbers, it doesn’t appear to be related to his approach, he’s still drawing less than a walk a week, though to be fair he hasn’t struck out much either. Looking at the stats, Castillo’s offensive improvement appears to be due to him driving the baseball more consistently.
2) Does anyone know the particulars of how Rusney Castillo’s situation with his contract and status as a minor leaguer works? I remember reading something prior to the season that talked about the Sox would not call up Castillo even if they had a need this season, because his contact would put them over the salary cap. Castillo’s deal pays him $10.5 M this year, which if I understand correctly does not count against the salary cap for the Red Sox. What happens if the Sox call up Castillo, does the entire $10.5 M go against the salary cap, is it prorated, and how much room do the Sox have left under the cap if they did want to call Castillo up? The Sox have 37% of their season left, Castillo’s deal prorated comes out to a little under $3.9 M if the Sox called him up today, and a little over $3.6 if they wait until August 1.
Castillo could possibly provide the Red Sox with what they expected to get out of Chris Young this season, a solid defensive 4th outfielder who hits LHP. It is probably very unlikely the Red Sox will call him up if it is going to put him over the salary cap, but is that still a factor at this point?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 27, 2017 13:52:42 GMT -5
Moved the above post into the other Rusney thread, which answers some of the questions in the post.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 27, 2017 14:07:06 GMT -5
I have a few questions regarding Rusney Castillo and am hoping someone can help me out. 1) Castillo has performed quite well in AAA this season with a .824 OPS, hitting for more power, and perhaps most interestingly excelling vs LHP (something the Sox have a need for) with a 1.018 OPS vs lefties. Has anyone had a chance to watch Castillo this year, or heard anything with regards to changes he’s made that might explain the significant offensive strides he seems to have made? Just looking at numbers, it doesn’t appear to be related to his approach, he’s still drawing less than a walk a week, though to be fair he hasn’t struck out much either. Looking at the stats, Castillo’s offensive improvement appears to be due to him driving the baseball more consistently. 2) Does anyone know the particulars of how Rusney Castillo’s situation with his contract and status as a minor leaguer works? I remember reading something prior to the season that talked about the Sox would not call up Castillo even if they had a need this season, because his contact would put them over the salary cap. Castillo’s deal pays him $10.5 M this year, which if I understand correctly does not count against the salary cap for the Red Sox. What happens if the Sox call up Castillo, does the entire $10.5 M go against the salary cap, is it prorated, and how much room do the Sox have left under the cap if they did want to call Castillo up? The Sox have 37% of their season left, Castillo’s deal prorated comes out to a little under $3.9 M if the Sox called him up today, and a little over $3.6 if they wait until August 1. Castillo could possibly provide the Red Sox with what they expected to get out of Chris Young this season, a solid defensive 4th outfielder who hits LHP. It is probably very unlikely the Red Sox will call him up if it is going to put him over the salary cap, but is that still a factor at this point? I've wondered the same as you regarding Castillo and the increased power makes me think he has added more uppercut to his swing plane. (His swing was far too level to generate lift previously; leading to those ground ball outs) After the trade for Nunez I believe the Red Sox have about 3 mil left under the luxury tax. There are many sites that show the salary but the compensation estimates are all within a couple mil of the mark so we don't know precisely without seeing the Red Sox accounting books. The salary would be prorated so possible they call him up by September 1st. But with the addition of Nunez and the health of Holy, the need for his RH bat, speed on the bases and OF defense have decreased.
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Post by jmei on Jul 27, 2017 15:09:59 GMT -5
Rusney's Pawtucket ground ball rates by year: 2015: 58.7% 2016: 52.5% 2017: 47.3%
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 28, 2017 8:13:17 GMT -5
Rusney's Pawtucket ground ball rates by year: 2015: 58.7% 2016: 52.5% 2017: 47.3% It's all hindsight now, but the Sox thinking Castillo was major league ready and inserting him straight to the majors was a huge developmental mistake. They invested tens of millions, and I guess felt they needed to get a return on that investment relatively quickly. An initial assignment to Double-A probably would've avoided him getting overmatched and the problems that led to. He was just swinging so tentatively and not driving or lofting the ball at all when I saw him in 2015. He looked like a completely different player when I saw him, and the underlying stat line seems to back that up. He's not a star because I think his OBP would top out at around .325, but he's a second-division starter who does enough things well.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 28, 2017 9:15:07 GMT -5
Can he be called up in September without his salary counting against the luxury tax?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2017 9:49:26 GMT -5
Can he be called up in September without his salary counting against the luxury tax? No. Curious why you ask?
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brendan98
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Post by brendan98 on Jul 28, 2017 10:17:35 GMT -5
Can he be called up in September without his salary counting against the luxury tax? No. Curious why you ask? While the answer is no, his prorated salary would be $1.4 M at that point, so could be done assuming they have enough cap room.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 28, 2017 12:18:53 GMT -5
Can he be called up in September without his salary counting against the luxury tax? No. Curious why you ask? Well, he needs MLB at bats to prove he can be either a useful backup for the Sox next year or to get traded.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2017 14:21:23 GMT -5
Right, I guess I was wondering why you thought his salary wouldn't count if he came up in September.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 28, 2017 15:36:33 GMT -5
Right, I guess I was wondering why you thought his salary wouldn't count if he came up in September. Yeah, now that seems obvious. I was really wondering of the luxury tax implications if they called him up in September and had him go back to Pawtucket next year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2017 16:17:17 GMT -5
Right, I guess I was wondering why you thought his salary wouldn't count if he came up in September. Yeah, now that seems obvious. I was really wondering of the luxury tax implications if they called him up in September and had him go back to Pawtucket next year. He would have to clear waivers again to keep his salary off the luxury tax calculations.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2017 8:45:34 GMT -5
Most likely a trade chip for a team that doesn't have as stellar an outfield as the red sox. Otherwise, he may become the 4th outfielder next season, but then be traded as better prospects come up. He seems to be a four-a player right now and it's unclear if he'll get much better than that.
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Post by soxjim on Jul 30, 2017 10:02:53 GMT -5
Last year's Chris Young would have been a huge boost and there is no way Castillo would be better. This year's Chris Young is anemic. Thus a minor leaguer could probably have performed better. Last year's Chris Young with an over .850 OPS in which even his OPS vs righties was better than the league average and he just torpe up lefties - would have been worth it. Though the Sox could really use a good lefty bat or a righty that can tear into lefties. On so many levels "A David Ortiz" would have been perfect for this team. Do you know where we can find one?
So yeah in hindsight Castillo would have been better. It doesn't mean much though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2017 12:21:09 GMT -5
Last year's Chris Young would have been a huge boost and there is no way Castillo would be better. This year's Chris Young is anemic. Thus a minor leaguer could probably have performed better. Last year's Chris Young with an over .850 OPS in which even his OPS vs righties was better than the league average and he just torpe up lefties - would have been worth it. Though the Sox could really use a good lefty bat or a righty that can tear into lefties. On so many levels "A David Ortiz" would have been perfect for this team. Do you know where we can find one?So yeah in hindsight Castillo would have been better. It doesn't mean much though. Cetainly not worth going over the luxury tax limit for - that's for sure. Frankly, I'd rather see Brentz get a chance. And no team in their right mind is going to trade for Castillo unless the Red Sox assume a large portion of his remaining contract.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2017 15:29:26 GMT -5
Rusney Castillo ends the season hitting .314/.350/.507 (138 wRC+) in 369 PAs in Pawtucket, with a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate and a career-high .193 ISO.
That combination of contact and power is what the Red Sox saw when the scouted him, and his breakout this year is tied to a multi-year trend of his adapting his swing to elevate the ball more often. Here are his ground ball rates by year: 2015 (AAA): 58.7% 2015 (MLB): 63.5% 2016 (AAA): 52.5% 2017 (AAA): 45.5%
Steamer projects him to hit .279/.317/.422 (91 wRC+) next year. Combined with above-average to plus CF defense, that's a little less than a two win player. Have to think he'll be on a major league roster next year (though not sure it'll be with the Red Sox).
One negative: he's already in his age-30 season, and his contract goes through 2020 (his age 33 season).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2017 16:56:24 GMT -5
Rusney Castillo ends the season hitting .314/.350/.507 (138 wRC+) in 369 PAs in Pawtucket, with a career-low 13.8% strikeout rate and a career-high .193 ISO. That combination of contact and power is what the Red Sox saw when the scouted him, and his breakout this year is tied to a multi-year trend of his adapting his swing to elevate the ball more often. Here are his ground ball rates by year: 2015 (AAA): 58.7% 2015 (MLB): 63.5% 2016 (AAA): 52.5% 2017 (AAA): 45.5% Steamer projects him to hit .279/.317/.422 (91 wRC+) next year. Combined with above-average to plus CF defense, that's a little less than a two win player. Have to think he'll be on a major league roster next year (though not sure it'll be with the Red Sox). One negative: he's already in his age-30 season, and his contract goes through 2020 (his age 33 season). All projection systems will assume that changes at this age do not represent real learning, and will have him regressing significantly back to his 2015/16 performance. Clay Davenport has his MLE this year as .262, where .260 is MLB average, .265 average for starters, and .267 average for CF. I think a projection that factored in his unique circumstances would put him closer to 100 wRC+. BP has him as a +12 R/150 CF, while Clay his him at +12 translated, +18 raw. Ordinarily, you'd regress than +12 to +7, but he also has the equivalent of +25 in half a year's worth of MLB innings, so he actually projects to +12. If he can put up a .259 wRC+ and play +10 defense, that's a 2.2 WAR player (since a point of EqA over 150 games conveniently = 0.1 WAR). That's pretty much exactly what the consensus was when he signed.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2019 11:08:57 GMT -5
Due to Castillo's lack of major league service time, will the Red Sox be able to sign him for the league minimum following the expiration of his contract in 2020?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2019 11:11:54 GMT -5
Due to Castillo's lack of major league service time, will the Red Sox be able to sign him for the league minimum following the expiration of his contract in 2020? If they add him to the 40 before he becomes a minor league free agent, I guess?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 19, 2019 11:18:36 GMT -5
Due to Castillo's lack of major league service time, will the Red Sox be able to sign him for the league minimum following the expiration of his contract in 2020? Yep. In fact they could purchase his contract following the season and he wouldn't even hit free agency, the way they did with Brentz following 2017. He'd be pre-arb with an option left. If he reaches free agency though, it seems unlikely he'd just take a league-minimum deal to stay with the team that kept him in the minors into his mid-30's.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2019 11:24:20 GMT -5
Due to Castillo's lack of major league service time, will the Red Sox be able to sign him for the league minimum following the expiration of his contract in 2020? Yep. In fact they could purchase his contract following the season and he wouldn't even hit free agency, the way they did with Brentz following 2017. He'd be pre-arb with an option left. If he reaches free agency though, it seems unlikely he'd just take a league-minimum deal to stay with the team that kept him in the minors into his mid-30's. That's what I meant. They could stop him from reaching free agency and keep him another 5+ years of control if they wanted. (I know they won't) But he might be a decent 26th man on the roster for league minimum (if he doesn't just retire). It's strange that he got $72 million and could possibly never be an MLB free agent. I bet he's often buying dinner for his teammates.
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