steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 12, 2013 13:00:16 GMT -5
Video of Freddy Rodriguez: Long swing, not much bat speed there. Most prospects look amazing tearing apart BP, he didn't. I totally disagree with reports of a "sound, compact swing." I watched that video myself a few days ago......and thought the same thing. That is the BEST batting practice video you've taken?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 12, 2013 13:48:32 GMT -5
If you want to end up with a Sano(jury still out I know) or Cabrera you have to take the risk. The team is not going to be set back by missing on a 2M+ dollar player. I would much rather see them spend 3M+ on Sano that 2m on Vinicio or Lin.
I understand that they found Xander using the spread the bonus around strategy but finding a guy like Xander is like wining the lottery.I'm fine with their approach and its something they've had relative success with, have they impacted the bigs yet? no but we'll see what happens with Xander and their signings haven't completely bombed yet. Beltre has reached AAA in another org and still has a chance to make it. Stolmy has found life hard at the AA/AAA level but he's battling. With Latin American signings you have to have great scouts on the ground it is volume more than anything because many many guys will fail, after all its 16 y/o we are talking about here. Regardless of that if a guy like Sano, Soler etc. comes along we have to be in on that even with the risks involve. Its not gonna negatively affect the franchise all that much long term. Who knows who is a Sano, Soler type? Thats why you need great connections and scouts on the ground to determine that. The biggest investment on a international hitter they've made was Almanzar(yes Vinicio and Lin got more but that was more for their defensive tools than the bat) and I remember that year reports were that the class was a bit down. Thats the type of year I wouldn't be spending a big bonus on one guy. BTW I don't believe they shy away form some guys because of money, its because of what they look for in scouting. They seem to like guys with good hit tools and defensive value. Almost all the guys that have signed for big money the last few years are all bat with questionable hit tools and defensive tools. They don't go after that type of players. If there comes along a guy who hits all their bells I don't think they shy away because of money. Getting a guy like Cabrera is also like winning the lottery though. Cabrera represents the absolute best case scenario for throwing all your money at one guy, just like Xander represents the best case scenario for spreading around your resources and diversifying. All of these players have a huge range of outcomes and top bonus guys don't have a great success rate either. I can understand the concept of spreading around the pool on multiple intriguing "lottery tickets" because the top bonus guys aren't THAT much more likely to give the big club substantial value. Ultimately it should be treated on a case by case basis for each yearly class, and they should adapt their strategy to fit that class.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 12, 2013 14:09:07 GMT -5
If you want to end up with a Sano(jury still out I know) or Cabrera you have to take the risk. The team is not going to be set back by missing on a 2M+ dollar player. I would much rather see them spend 3M+ on Sano that 2m on Vinicio or Lin.
I understand that they found Xander using the spread the bonus around strategy but finding a guy like Xander is like wining the lottery.I'm fine with their approach and its something they've had relative success with, have they impacted the bigs yet? no but we'll see what happens with Xander and their signings haven't completely bombed yet. Beltre has reached AAA in another org and still has a chance to make it. Stolmy has found life hard at the AA/AAA level but he's battling. With Latin American signings you have to have great scouts on the ground it is volume more than anything because many many guys will fail, after all its 16 y/o we are talking about here. Regardless of that if a guy like Sano, Soler etc. comes along we have to be in on that even with the risks involve. Its not gonna negatively affect the franchise all that much long term. Who knows who is a Sano, Soler type? Thats why you need great connections and scouts on the ground to determine that. The biggest investment on a international hitter they've made was Almanzar(yes Vinicio and Lin got more but that was more for their defensive tools than the bat) and I remember that year reports were that the class was a bit down. Thats the type of year I wouldn't be spending a big bonus on one guy. BTW I don't believe they shy away form some guys because of money, its because of what they look for in scouting. They seem to like guys with good hit tools and defensive value. Almost all the guys that have signed for big money the last few years are all bat with questionable hit tools and defensive tools. They don't go after that type of players. If there comes along a guy who hits all their bells I don't think they shy away because of money. Getting a guy like Cabrera is also like winning the lottery though. Cabrera represents the absolute best case scenario for throwing all your money at one guy, just like Xander represents the best case scenario for spreading around your resources and diversifying. All of these players have a huge range of outcomes and top bonus guys don't have a great success rate either. I can understand the concept of spreading around the pool on multiple intriguing "lottery tickets" because the top bonus guys aren't THAT much more likely to give the big club substantial value. Ultimately it should be treated on a case by case basis for each yearly class, and they should adapt their strategy to fit that class. All prospects are lottery tickets which I think we all agree on. The difference here is that the odds of one winning big isn't the same as the odds of the other winning big. Xander is kind of a once in a great while pay off that we shouldn't count on happening again anytime soon. I do understand the thinking on both sides. The first is spending big on the better chance of a star and the other is spreading it out on more long shots. I think the class itself determines which is best for a given year.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 12, 2013 15:07:08 GMT -5
Getting a guy like Cabrera is also like winning the lottery though. Cabrera represents the absolute best case scenario for throwing all your money at one guy, just like Xander represents the best case scenario for spreading around your resources and diversifying. All of these players have a huge range of outcomes and top bonus guys don't have a great success rate either. I can understand the concept of spreading around the pool on multiple intriguing "lottery tickets" because the top bonus guys aren't THAT much more likely to give the big club substantial value. Ultimately it should be treated on a case by case basis for each yearly class, and they should adapt their strategy to fit that class.Thats sort of what I was going at. You describe it exactly how I feel about it.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 12, 2013 15:39:40 GMT -5
Getting a guy like Cabrera is also like winning the lottery though. Cabrera represents the absolute best case scenario for throwing all your money at one guy, just like Xander represents the best case scenario for spreading around your resources and diversifying. All of these players have a huge range of outcomes and top bonus guys don't have a great success rate either. I can understand the concept of spreading around the pool on multiple intriguing "lottery tickets" because the top bonus guys aren't THAT much more likely to give the big club substantial value. Ultimately it should be treated on a case by case basis for each yearly class, and they should adapt their strategy to fit that class.Thats sort of what I was going at. You describe it exactly how I feel about it. How did he say that without me noticing it? Don't try to multi-task people.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Jun 13, 2013 10:37:59 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 13, 2013 11:24:33 GMT -5
Considering the variability of outcomes for a 16 year old, spreading the money around might make a lot of sense. A lot of things can happen and many of them are not good. I would look at that as more of a numbers game than the regular draft for sure.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 13, 2013 12:10:05 GMT -5
Shucks.....is there a consensus that could be summarized to the lowly, non-subscribers?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 13, 2013 14:46:35 GMT -5
Devers is considered by the majority as the best bat in the class. Its not a lock he stays at 3rd base because of his body but there is a good chance. Encarnacion has more raw power but is a bit less of a hitter, though some scouts think he will end up plus power, plus hit. Defensively he is rough at 3rd base and will likely end up at 1B or the OF, most likely 1B. The one scout who liked him more than Devers was because he is younger(One of the youngest in the class), has more power and already shows ability to hit.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 13, 2013 15:18:25 GMT -5
Devers is considered by the majority as the best bat in the class. Its not a lock he stays at 3rd base because of his body but there is a good chance. Encarnacion has more raw power but is a bit less of a hitter, though some scouts think he will end up plus power, plus hit. Defensively he is rough at 3rd base and will likely end up at 1B or the OF, most likely 1B. The one scout who liked him more than Devers was because he is younger(One of the youngest in the class), has more power and already shows ability to hit. Thanks for info. I hope we sign Devers....I prefer the idea of taking the guy who looks like the best hitter and hope that the power develops, especially considering he at least seems to have average power at the moment. I'd guess the success rate is better for that profile of hitter as opposed to the big raw power guy with a questionable hit tool.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 13, 2013 16:06:16 GMT -5
Thanks for info. I hope we sign Devers....I prefer the idea of taking the guy who looks like the best hitter and hope that the power develops, especially considering he at least seems to have average power at the moment. I'd guess the success rate is better for that profile of hitter as opposed to the big raw power guy with a questionable hit tool. Encarnacion's hit tool is not questionable though. Devers' is rated better but its not like scout are questioning Encarnacion's.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 13, 2013 16:36:48 GMT -5
Encarnacion's hit tool is not questionable though. Devers' is rated better but its not like scout are questioning Encarnacion's. Fair enough, questionable might have been a poor choice of words. I still like the idea of valuing hit > power at that young of an age.
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Post by alex710707 on Jun 14, 2013 3:59:00 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 14, 2013 6:06:49 GMT -5
Considering the variability of outcomes for a 16 year old, spreading the money around might make a lot of sense. A lot of things can happen and many of them are not good. I would look at that as more of a numbers game than the regular draft for sure. Hanley was our last good Latin player developed before Xander. He was also a low bonus guy. I've basically given up on our int'l program. Especially, the DR. With a team that had Pedro, Manny and Papi I would have thought that would open the door to a lot of leads/prospects. I guess not. I'm not criticizing Latin players. Just our ability to find the good ones.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 14, 2013 7:40:59 GMT -5
Considering the variability of outcomes for a 16 year old, spreading the money around might make a lot of sense. A lot of things can happen and many of them are not good. I would look at that as more of a numbers game than the regular draft for sure. Hanley was our last good Latin player developed before Xander. He was also a low bonus guy. I've basically given up on our int'l program. Especially, the DR. With a team that had Pedro, Manny and Papi I would have thought that would open the door to a lot of leads/prospects. I guess not. I'm not criticizing Latin players. Just our ability to find the good ones. Its a very difficult thing to do though....for any team. I'd be interested to know how many teams currently field 2 or more players on the 25 man roster that were international signees who came up through their own system. We at least have Doubront, Tazawa, and Iglesias currently, with Bogaerts not far off, and Margot potentially ready for a break through in the minors. That probably compares well to most other teams.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2013 7:43:34 GMT -5
Yeah, the odds of international players making it to the major leagues are incredibly low for anyone. That's why, even under the old CBA, international signees got very little bonus money even though the international market was basically a true free market (unlike the draft, for instance). There were occasional bidding wars over the top guys, but most prospects settled for a few hundred grand at best.
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Post by goingbuch on Jun 14, 2013 8:13:49 GMT -5
2013 International Free Agents www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/11/4259454/2013-international-free-agents-updated-rankings-videoEloy Jimenez ! Rafael Devers ! Mayky Perez ! I am no scout. Just saying my point of view. I think Eloy Jimenez and Mayky Perez are incredible. Quite disappointed at news that red sox is interested in Rafael Devers. Mayky Perez has really bad posture, at least in that look, especially out of the windup. I'm not a scout but I'd imagine it's going to be really hard for him to control and command his stuff with that delivery.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 14, 2013 10:50:52 GMT -5
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 14, 2013 11:16:40 GMT -5
2013 International Free Agents www.minorleagueball.com/2013/6/11/4259454/2013-international-free-agents-updated-rankings-videoEloy Jimenez ! Rafael Devers ! Mayky Perez ! I am no scout. Just saying my point of view. I think Eloy Jimenez and Mayky Perez are incredible. Quite disappointed at news that red sox is interested in Rafael Devers. Mayky Perez has really bad posture, at least in that look, especially out of the windup. I'm not a scout but I'd imagine it's going to be really hard for him to control and command his stuff with that delivery. BA has the Astros with the lead for Jimenez, with a orojected bonus around $2.5 million. His swing reminds me of Alphonso Soriano. Devers looks to be a solid prospect who would probably benefit from getting into a strength and conditioning program very soon. Red Sox can't sign everybody, particularly with the restrictions on the amount that each team is alloted to sign international players.
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Post by dominicansoxfan on Jun 14, 2013 12:12:06 GMT -5
Vermontsox1 please be careful cutting and pasting most of an article like this! Copywrite laws apply to blog and boards. I read the article before I saw it posted here, but good information.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 14, 2013 16:59:32 GMT -5
Considering the variability of outcomes for a 16 year old, spreading the money around might make a lot of sense. A lot of things can happen and many of them are not good. I would look at that as more of a numbers game than the regular draft for sure. Hanley was our last good Latin player developed before Xander. He was also a low bonus guy. I've basically given up on our int'l program. Especially, the DR. With a team that had Pedro, Manny and Papi I would have thought that would open the door to a lot of leads/prospects. I guess not. I'm not criticizing Latin players. Just our ability to find the good ones. Anibal would like to have a word with you. And Aruba isn't latin!
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 14, 2013 17:20:09 GMT -5
Well they speak papiamento too which has parts of Portuguese and Spanish so the kind of are a little bit.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 14, 2013 17:45:54 GMT -5
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 14, 2013 18:07:16 GMT -5
it was originally colonized by the Spanish, and it is a swimable distance from Venezuela. There is also significant immigration from other Latin American islands. Its part of Latin America.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 14, 2013 18:11:02 GMT -5
it was originally colonized by the Spanish, and it is a swimable distance from Venezuela Mexico. There is also significant immigration from other Latin American islands countries. Its part of Latin America. So is Texas.
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