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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 26, 2020 12:32:20 GMT -5
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 26, 2020 12:39:25 GMT -5
Also from that article, trying to improve his splitter through Eovaldi:
'“He’s a great guy to talk to about pitching,” Houck said, “and he’s got one of the nastiest splits. So I’ve been bouncing questions off him, how he holds it, what he’s thinking whenever he throws it.”
Houck said he plans to take those lessons from Eovaldi into the offseason to continue developing the pitch this winter and plans to get a better feel for throwing his two-seamer glove side and four-seamer arm side.'
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 26, 2020 20:15:06 GMT -5
Another $1000. Houck looks awesome tonight.
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Post by orion09 on Sept 26, 2020 20:22:19 GMT -5
35% whiffs against a Braves lineup that ranks 3rd in xwOBP. A lot of the hitters looked pretty uncomfortable up there, especially Albies and Acuna.
I would guess that Houck is especially good at tunneling his pitches, which would seem to bode well for sustained success. We'll see what happens when the league sees him again
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 26, 2020 20:44:41 GMT -5
“@alexspeier: Houck is the 9th Red Sox ever with a 10+ K game in one of his first three starts. The most recent three: Henry Owens, Daisuke, Lester. That group covers… a broad spectrum of outcomes.”
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 26, 2020 21:55:41 GMT -5
I think the site might want to update Houck's status. I know its only 3 starts, but they were 3 impressive major league starts with one against the Yankees and one against a very good Braves lineup. Surely he would now have to be considered better than the system's 10th best prospect. For example, if the Red Sox could only keep one of Houck or Song, I think they would keep Houck. Moreover, I find it very difficult to believe the Red Sox will find 12 better arms than his to put on the major league team next year. He may not start in the rotation, but I think he will at least be in the bullpen. Finally, I think his potential to be better than a back end starter is now pretty clear. Doesn't mean he will reach that potential, but I could certainly see him as at least a mid rotation starter and maybe a No. 2.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 26, 2020 22:17:01 GMT -5
I think the site might want to update Houck's status. I know its only 3 starts, but they were 3 impressive major league starts with one against the Yankees and one against a very good Braves lineup. Surely he would now have to be considered better than the system's 10th best prospect. For example, if the Red Sox could only keep one of Houck or Song, I think they would keep Houck. Moreover, I find it very difficult to believe the Red Sox will find 12 better arms than his to put on the major league team next year. He may not start in the rotation, but I think he will at least be in the bullpen. Finally, I think his potential to be better than a back end starter is now pretty clear. Doesn't mean he will reach that potential, but I could certainly see him as at least a mid rotation starter and maybe a No. 2. I think he deserves a spot in that rotation and maybe pivetta depending on how he looks in spring training. These two guys could help give the rotation life aslong as we all realize we are only getting 5-6 innings a start out of these guys. We just need to juice the bullpen up in the off-season there are some good options to help turn this team around fast.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 26, 2020 22:34:30 GMT -5
There is almost no chance of Houck being in the pen next year. He's going to be a starter. I'm pretty sure that Sale won't be on the opening day roster.
The easy move for this team is to give Eovaldis spot to Houck and move Eovaldi to the Closer role.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 26, 2020 23:54:51 GMT -5
Maybe the most impressive thing about Houck so far has been his ability to make on the fly adjustments.
In his prior start against the Yankees, the 4-seam velocity was lower and his 2-seamer had more movement than usual, so he used his sinker a bunch.
Tonight his 4-seamer was effective and the 2-seamer had less movement, so he was 4-seam heavy. It's impressive he noticed these things and executed a successful gameplan both times.
"I felt like I was commanding it pretty well today," Houck said. "I felt like I had a lot of ride and pop on the ball. They are an aggressive low-ball hitting team. I kind of just went out there and kind of rode the fastball up."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 2:15:53 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2020 2:39:50 GMT -5
Houck is the 30th pitcher in the lively ball era to record an ERA+ of 200 or better while:
- In his first year in MLB
- Retaining his rookie status
- Starting 3 games or more and retiring a batter in each
- Being used primarily as a starter (GS >= GR)
Which is to say, cup-of-coffee starting pitchers.
Of the 31, he has the best ERA+ and the highest GDP rate (GDP / (1B + BB + HBP)). He also has the highest K%, but that needs to be adjusted for league rates, which I can do tomorrow, when I'll also have his OPS+ rank. He has the 2nd-lowest effective OBP allowed (subtracting GDP) and the 3rd lowest SA, which explains the best ERA+.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 27, 2020 5:39:12 GMT -5
There is almost no chance of Houck being in the pen next year. He's going to be a starter. I'm pretty sure that Sale won't be on the opening day roster. The easy move for this team is to give Eovaldis spot to Houck and move Eovaldi to the Closer role. Eovaldis stuff has been too good this year for him to be moved to the pen.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 27, 2020 6:58:20 GMT -5
There is almost no chance of Houck being in the pen next year. He's going to be a starter. I'm pretty sure that Sale won't be on the opening day roster. The easy move for this team is to give Eovaldis spot to Houck and move Eovaldi to the Closer role. Eovaldis stuff has been too good this year for him to be moved to the pen. Agree. Moving him to the pen "might" save bullets for his arm, but he just looked to good, to often as a starter wasting away an inning at a time. Also don't see anyway, anyhow Houck isn't starting for the parent club come April.. Unless his ST showing is awful.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 27, 2020 7:26:55 GMT -5
Eovaldis stuff has been too good this year for him to be moved to the pen. Agree. Moving him to the pen "might" save bullets for his arm, but he just looked to good, to often as a starter wasting away an inning at a time. Also don't see anyway, anyhow Houck isn't starting for the parent club come April.. Unless his ST showing is awful. Yep. We have too few starting candidates, especially early on, to move Eovaldi. It's clearly easier and less costly to add pen arms than find reliable starters. Houck has been a revelation that I'm hoping is not a mirage. His FB is less than advertised, his command somewhat spotty and his walk rate troubling, but the pitch movement and deception have compensated. I'm hoping that the Braves don't rest the regulars today, that Pivetta pitches masterfully, but that the Sox lose by a run on a fluke play.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 7:30:39 GMT -5
Agree. Moving him to the pen "might" save bullets for his arm, but he just looked to good, to often as a starter wasting away an inning at a time. Also don't see anyway, anyhow Houck isn't starting for the parent club come April.. Unless his ST showing is awful. Yep. We have too few starting candidates, especially early on, to move Eovaldi. It's clearly easier and less costly to add pen arms than find reliable starters. Houck has been a revelation that I'm hoping is not a mirage. His FB is less than advertised, his command somewhat spotty and his walk rate troubling, but the pitch movement and deception have compensated. I'm hoping that the Braves don't rest the regulars today, that Pivetta pitches masterfully, but that the Sox lose by a run on a fluke play. I am thinking the closer might not be on the team right now. In any event, Tapia and Pivetta seem more likely than Eovaldi. I am not saying better, more likely.
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Post by patford on Sept 27, 2020 7:36:25 GMT -5
I think the site might want to update Houck's status. I know its only 3 starts, but they were 3 impressive major league starts with one against the Yankees and one against a very good Braves lineup. Surely he would now have to be considered better than the system's 10th best prospect. For example, if the Red Sox could only keep one of Houck or Song, I think they would keep Houck. Moreover, I find it very difficult to believe the Red Sox will find 12 better arms than his to put on the major league team next year. He may not start in the rotation, but I think he will at least be in the bullpen. Finally, I think his potential to be better than a back end starter is now pretty clear. Doesn't mean he will reach that potential, but I could certainly see him as at least a mid rotation starter and maybe a No. 2. The Sox top ten is suddenly kind of loaded isn't it ? Gone are the days when it contained guys whose ceiling was a part time MLB utility role or possible bullpen arm. In fact the top 15 is looking pretty good.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 8:54:48 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo · 1h “He is nasty.” -- Braves manager Brian Snitker talking some Tanner Houck
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Post by manfred on Sept 27, 2020 8:54:51 GMT -5
Eovaldis stuff has been too good this year for him to be moved to the pen. Agree. Moving him to the pen "might" save bullets for his arm, but he just looked to good, to often as a starter wasting away an inning at a time. Also don't see anyway, anyhow Houck isn't starting for the parent club come April.. Unless his ST showing is awful. On the other hand, he was, yet again, on the IL and he threw 48 innings (that is, around what a closer might — which might be part of why his stuff was so good). I agree with posters who say as of now the starter options are to thin to move him. But ideally I think he would be better as closer.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 9:13:19 GMT -5
Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb · 3h Ron Roenicke on Tanner Houck: “Chaim (Bloom) has got a smile on his face right now so you know it’s pretty good." . . . Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb · 3h Ron Roenicke on Tanner Houck's slider, which got 10 swings-and-misses last night: "I don’t remember that slider being so hard to see. They’re not picking up the spin of it."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 9:24:01 GMT -5
Red Sox Notes @soxnotes · 14m Tanner Houck is 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA and a .113 opponent AVG. He has allowed only 6 hits to his 63 batters faced.
vs. LHH: .111 AVG, .439 OPS (2-for-18, 5 SO)
vs. RHH: .114 AVG, .444 OPS (4-for-35, 16 SO)
Opponents are 0-for-19 against him with runners on base.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 27, 2020 10:23:54 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2020 10:48:51 GMT -5
I think the site might want to update Houck's status. I know its only 3 starts, but they were 3 impressive major league starts with one against the Yankees and one against a very good Braves lineup. Surely he would now have to be considered better than the system's 10th best prospect. For example, if the Red Sox could only keep one of Houck or Song, I think they would keep Houck. Moreover, I find it very difficult to believe the Red Sox will find 12 better arms than his to put on the major league team next year. He may not start in the rotation, but I think he will at least be in the bullpen. Finally, I think his potential to be better than a back end starter is now pretty clear. Doesn't mean he will reach that potential, but I could certainly see him as at least a mid rotation starter and maybe a No. 2. I think they will. The ratings are from 7/3 and they will update them.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2020 12:23:25 GMT -5
Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb · 3h Ron Roenicke on Tanner Houck: “Chaim (Bloom) has got a smile on his face right now so you know it’s pretty good." . . . Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb · 3h Ron Roenicke on Tanner Houck's slider, which got 10 swings-and-misses last night: "I don’t remember that slider being so hard to see. They’re not picking up the spin of it." If Houck qualified for my list of 140 starting pitchers (2015 - 2019) who threw the slider enough to be part of my analysis ...
He'd rank 4th in predicted slider effectiveness based on movement and velo, after Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, and Jakob Junis.
He'd rank 1st in actual effectiveness, ahead of Kluber.
He throws the slider 1.0 mph faster than average relative to his FB.
The Yankee start where he had depressed velo on everything (-2.3 on the slider relative to the other two starts) and depressed slider movement is actually cutting into these results. If that happens less than 1/3 of the time, he'd project even better.
And none of this is adjusted for quality of opposition ... but the Marlins, Yankees, and Braves rank 15th, 20th, and 11th in hitting sliders from righties (wOBA), so no adjustment is needed.
However ... while the Marlins rank 22nd in hitting the 4-seamer, the Yankees are 1st and the Braves are 2nd.
Ranks against the sinker are 17th, 20th, and 2nd. So all the sinkers against the Yankees were part of a plan, not just a reaction to his stuff.
He threw 43 4-seamers against the Braves and allowed a .361 wOBA, 3/12, 2 BB, 5 SO, HR. The Swanson homer really blew that up
He threw 37 sliders and allowed an .086, 0/7, BB, 5 SO, GDP.
And 14 sinkers, getting an out.
How did his 4-seamer fare against the Yankees, without his normal velo? He threw 20 and got a .238 wOBA, 1/7, BB, SO, 2B, GDP. Some luck, because he got an out on LeMahieu's leadoff liner, 101.8, .620 xBA, .840 xwOBA. But his overall xwOBA was .312, so he threw it 20 times to a team that kills it, when his stuff was down. and still projected as a better-than-average pitch.
His 4-seamer effectiveness would rank 24th out of 162 starters who have thrown 20 innings or more this year. I'm agnostic as to whether even above-average results can be sustained, and am looking forward to finishing my FB effectiveness analysis to see if its straightness is actually a plus, the way Max Scherzer's (and others) low-break slider is a plus. That will go a long way to refining his projection and where he belongs in prospect ratings.
In the meantime, he's getting results with it. And he's doing it at least in part by pitching.
The difference between expectations and results is completely because he just worked on his pitches in the minors. He was still trying to get guys out, of course, but within the constraints of not throwing one of the fastballs, not using the slider to get an out when he wanted to work on using the FB to do that instead, not sequencing pitchers for maximum results, and not having a plan designed against the opposition, and executing it.
He was on board with all of that, I think, because he knew how good he was and wanted to get even better.
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Post by geostorm on Sept 27, 2020 13:12:27 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 27, 2020 13:41:35 GMT -5
“Well, [chief baseball officer] Chaim [Bloom] and I just talked, and I think that it’s still a short sample, but it’s against three good teams,” said Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke. “We feel pretty good that this guy can do this against the best hitters in the game, so I think it’s really encouraging when you’re looking at trying to fill in spots for a starting rotation and then you see that from a young guy. Chaim’s got a smile on his face right now, so you know it’s pretty good.” . . . “He is nasty,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “We haven’t seen him before. His ball moves a lot. He has a funky delivery that he kind of crossfires at you. He was effectively wild, but his stuff was live. He really did a really good job.”
www.mlb.com/news/tanner-houck-one-run-start-vs-braves
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