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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 11, 2017 12:49:07 GMT -5
I said 3/$30M and still think that makes sense. If the figure you estimate is correct, that's still quite a lot of $ for a team like the Red Sox who are at the high end of the payroll scale to pay for a guy who wouldn't be guaranteed ABs unless every day type players like Pedroia or Devers got injured. I'd rather see the Red Sox spend that money elsewhere. I would anticipate Marco Hernandez winds up the main utility man next year. He's no Nunez, but he'll be a lot cheaper and the Red Sox could try to spend the money to beef up the middle of their order.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 11, 2017 14:30:17 GMT -5
I said 3/$30M and still think that makes sense. It does. That's about what I would expect.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 11, 2017 15:13:01 GMT -5
Maybe some team overpays. He is having the best 37 game stretch of his career. Thing is they won't give him 4-5 years and at least 48 to 60 million. He's not Zobrist, not even close. Zobrist had 6 years with a war total higher than Nunez career mark in 8 years. Just think about that for a second. The best comp in the last two years is Daniel Murphy he got 3 years and 37.5 million. Thing is Murphy career war total was 3 times what Nunez currently is. Also the new CBA has the top spending teams watching every penny. As good as Nunez has been for the Red Sox his bwar total is currently 1.1 on the year. So if you have studied Nunez career, along with the contracts given out. Where did you come up with 4-5 years and at least 48-60 million? By saying at least 12 million you make that sound like his floor per year. You really think he can get more than that on a 4-5 year deal? Based on what? That's Josh Reddick type money. Thing is Reddick has had multiple years with a war total that was more than Nunez career mark. He has had 5 war seasons. You should have stopped there, because that's the point. It happens quite often so talking about this WAR comparison and what somebody got two or three years ago doesn't matter much. Every year I always read opinions on what player X will get and then there's always that sticker shock reaction when the players gets more than anticipated and just about every year the market goes up higher than anticipated. You can quote all the WAR stats you want but I'm sure even with all the sophisticated front offices around there's going to be somebody who's desperate for a 3b, particularly somebody who can succeed in a tough market like Boston, that's going to place an inordinate amount of value for it, will rationalize that if you keep Nunez at one position instead of moving him around his defense will likely be better. Christ, the team we root for one year decided it would be a great idea to give a 5 year deal to an overweight 3b with OBP issues and then try to convert an injury prone defensively challenged SS to LF and pay him $88 million over 4 years for the trouble, and our team was considered kind of smart, so why is it so damn hard to think that some team will look at Nunez as a 3b instead of comparing him to Zobrist or whatever? At the end of the day you might well be correct, but I usually err toward the side of there being a team out there willing to do something crazy or stupid. With 30 teams around, I like my chances of that, especially one with money who needs a 3b and doesn't get Moustakas and/or thinks Frazier is a one trick pony. The overpay though will most likely be the Murphy contract, 3 years 37.5 million. Not 4-5 years at at least 48 to 60 million. Guys get overpaid, but not like you think. War matters, age matters, and past production. Sandoval had issues but was 27 coming off a 3.4 war season. He had past production were you could talk yourself past his issues. Even being fat with Giants he was a 2-3 war player regularly and had a 6 war season. His war totals were 3.4, 2.3, 2.1, 6.1, 1.5, 4.3. Ramirez was 3.5, 5.4, 1.3, .2, 2.8, 7.3, 6.7, 4.3, and 4.9. Nunez is 1.1, 2.3, 1.5, .3, -1.5, .4, and -.5. Nunez is not in the ball park of players like Sandoval and Ramirez. He also carries a ton of risk. He's 30 and is already a horrible defender. His D could fall off a cliff at anytime. He just doesn't have the past or current production to warrant a very big contract. I will change by opinion if you can show me a similar player that even came close to your numbers.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 11, 2017 16:04:49 GMT -5
You should have stopped there, because that's the point. It happens quite often so talking about this WAR comparison and what somebody got two or three years ago doesn't matter much. Every year I always read opinions on what player X will get and then there's always that sticker shock reaction when the players gets more than anticipated and just about every year the market goes up higher than anticipated. You can quote all the WAR stats you want but I'm sure even with all the sophisticated front offices around there's going to be somebody who's desperate for a 3b, particularly somebody who can succeed in a tough market like Boston, that's going to place an inordinate amount of value for it, will rationalize that if you keep Nunez at one position instead of moving him around his defense will likely be better. Christ, the team we root for one year decided it would be a great idea to give a 5 year deal to an overweight 3b with OBP issues and then try to convert an injury prone defensively challenged SS to LF and pay him $88 million over 4 years for the trouble, and our team was considered kind of smart, so why is it so damn hard to think that some team will look at Nunez as a 3b instead of comparing him to Zobrist or whatever? At the end of the day you might well be correct, but I usually err toward the side of there being a team out there willing to do something crazy or stupid. With 30 teams around, I like my chances of that, especially one with money who needs a 3b and doesn't get Moustakas and/or thinks Frazier is a one trick pony. The overpay though will most likely be the Murphy contract, 3 years 37.5 million. Not 4-5 years at at least 48 to 60 million. Guys get overpaid, but not like you think. War matters, age matters, and past production. Sandoval had issues but was 27 coming off a 3.4 war season. He had past production were you could talk yourself past his issues. Even being fat with Giants he was a 2-3 war player regularly and had a 6 war season. His war totals were 3.4, 2.3, 2.1, 6.1, 1.5, 4.3. Ramirez was 3.5, 5.4, 1.3, .2, 2.8, 7.3, 6.7, 4.3, and 4.9. Nunez is 1.1, 2.3, 1.5, .3, -1.5, .4, and -.5. Nunez is not in the ball park of players like Sandoval and Ramirez. He also carries a ton of risk. He's 30 and is already a horrible defender. His D could fall off a cliff at anytime. He just doesn't have the past or current production to warrant a very big contract. I will change by opinion if you can show me a similar player that even came close to your numbers. I really don't care to change your opinion. Your opinion really isn't that important to me. If he gets 3 years $30 million or something like that, then you are correct, I'm not and life goes on. Either way Nunez will smile his way to the bank with more money than you and I combined will ever see in a lot of lifetimes. If I'm by chance correct and you're not, so what? You gave your opinion. I gave mine. We'll see what happens. I don't care what he gets as long as the Red Sox aren't paying the bill.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 12, 2017 6:29:32 GMT -5
The overpay though will most likely be the Murphy contract, 3 years 37.5 million. Not 4-5 years at at least 48 to 60 million. Guys get overpaid, but not like you think. War matters, age matters, and past production. Sandoval had issues but was 27 coming off a 3.4 war season. He had past production were you could talk yourself past his issues. Even being fat with Giants he was a 2-3 war player regularly and had a 6 war season. His war totals were 3.4, 2.3, 2.1, 6.1, 1.5, 4.3. Ramirez was 3.5, 5.4, 1.3, .2, 2.8, 7.3, 6.7, 4.3, and 4.9. Nunez is 1.1, 2.3, 1.5, .3, -1.5, .4, and -.5. Nunez is not in the ball park of players like Sandoval and Ramirez. He also carries a ton of risk. He's 30 and is already a horrible defender. His D could fall off a cliff at anytime. He just doesn't have the past or current production to warrant a very big contract. I will change by opinion if you can show me a similar player that even came close to your numbers. I really don't care to change your opinion. Your opinion really isn't that important to me. If he gets 3 years $30 million or something like that, then you are correct, I'm not and life goes on. Either way Nunez will smile his way to the bank with more money than you and I combined will ever see in a lot of lifetimes. If I'm by chance correct and you're not, so what? You gave your opinion. I gave mine. We'll see what happens. I don't care what he gets as long as the Red Sox aren't paying the bill. I think umass wants to make sure you have an informed opinion. The sox got lucky and caught lightning in a bottle for 5 or6 weeks with Nunez. One year a while back Nunez hit 400 I believe in the month of April for the yanks. By June he was in the minors. He has been with 4 teams now and is not new to everyone. Nunez has been a good bridge to next season when they have several choices as to who is the backup/ utility infielder player. I believe that we do not have to worry about what Nunez gets next year, because he will be someone else's concern.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 12, 2017 12:03:48 GMT -5
That is 100% correct. There are no wrong informed opinions. There are wrong uninformed opinions. If your whole argument is someone always gets overpaid so I will just assume Nunez will. You know because look at what Sandoval and Ramirez got. Or he's a lot like Zobrist. That's that an uninformed opinion. Nunez is nothing like those 3 players, not even close. The whole basis of a 4-5 year deal at at least 12 million is based of wrong information. Zobrist has been so sneaky good he has boardline HOF numbers if he can keep playing well into his late thirties.
The idea that we shouldn't resign Nunez is a little premature also. He exactly makes a ton of sense. Holt has done nothing for 2 years. Pedroia has major knee issues. If we are going to blow past the luxury tax for the next couple years Nunez makes sense. Not on some stupid unrealistic 4-5 year deal for at least 48 to 60 million, but a 2 year 22-24 million deal makes sense.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2017 13:11:18 GMT -5
That is 100% correct. There are no wrong informed opinions. There are wrong uninformed opinions. If your whole argument is someone always gets overpaid so I will just assume Nunez will. You know because look at what Sandoval and Ramirez got. Or he's a lot like Zobrist. That's that an uninformed opinion. Nunez is nothing like those 3 players, not even close. The whole basis of a 4-5 year deal at at least 12 million is based of wrong information. Zobrist has been so sneaky good he has boardline HOF numbers if he can keep playing well into his late thirties. The idea that we shouldn't resign Nunez is a little premature also. He exactly makes a ton of sense. Holt has done nothing for 2 years. Pedroia has major knee issues. If we are going to blow past the luxury tax for the next couple years Nunez makes sense. Not on some stupid unrealistic 4-5 year deal for at least 48 to 60 million, but a 2 year 22-24 million deal makes sense. This is my last response because I'm tired of being part of your daily pissing matches you have with everybody. Nunez is nothing like Zobrist, nor have I ever said he was as he's a totally different type of offensive player except that I anticipate he will be signed by a team anticipating a full season's worth of regular ABs and the team will pay him as such. He had nearly 600 plate appearances in 2016 and will wind up near that figure this year. As of 2016 he is no longer a utility player in the Brock Holt/Marcos Hernandez mold. I'm predicting some team will do something stupid that makes us say "wow, can't believe they did that." It happens. Comparing Nunez to Holt is every bit as dumb as comparing him to Zobrist. Holt has had serious injuries, has no power or speed, and at this stage would be lucky to get 300 plate appearances even as a Farrell favorite. But that is talking about their abilities as a player. I'm talking about the annual sticker shock thing that happens with a number of free agents. Sometimes you get the "wow I can't believe Encarnacion only (as if $20 million is something to sneeze at in real life) got that" and a bunch of other times you get the overpayments that are obvious from the beginning. It's an opinion, whether you consider it informed or uninformed. And since you don't work for any organizations in baseball I'm going to consider your opinion every bit as uninformed as mine since neither one of us have any idea what the 30 teams are going to do or how they're going to internally evaluate the player, nor do you have any idea what the market is going to look like this year any more than I do. A lot of the teams don't even know that until it happens. My opinion is that one of them needing a 3b is going to see a regular who has a good hit tool, power and speed and the ability to be versatile defensively, and will give him something like 4 years, $50 million, and if my opinion is mistaken, then I will have no problem sleeping at night or admitting that I was wrong, like I am a bunch of times, nor do I think Nunez will go broke. I also think that team will wind up disappointed within a couple of years if the batting average slips (causing his OBP to go to unacceptable levels) or his power dwindles, or if he doesn't settle in as a reasonably average defensive 2b or 3b with everyday exposure to one position. I have my evaluations of Nunez as a player and you have yours and we're probably not too far off in our evaluations, unless you really do think he's a good comparison to Brock Holt or Ben Zobrist for that matter.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2017 13:26:43 GMT -5
Please cut out the bickering and the personal stuff. In particular, umass, you've been warned about this kind of stuff before. Thanks.
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