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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2017 13:35:22 GMT -5
Could also Velazquez getting sent down for a more traditional short reliever or outfield help. He made sense yesterday with the bullpen depleted in case Fister got knocked around, but it'd be my preference to keep him on rotation in Pawtucket.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 23, 2017 14:04:36 GMT -5
Could also Velazquez getting sent down for a more traditional short reliever or outfield help. He made sense yesterday with the bullpen depleted in case Fister got knocked around, but it'd be my preference to keep him on rotation in Pawtucket. Agreed. But maybe they keep him one more night in case Pomeranz's back flares up again mid game. If all goes well, he's back in Pawtucket tomorrow and we get to see what Bryce Brentz can do in Boston. I hope his new mechanics can produce at the MLB, too.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 23, 2017 14:12:33 GMT -5
2B Eduardo Nunez (R) RF Mookie Betts (R) CF A. Benintendi (L) DH Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Rafael Devers (L) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) 1B Mitch Moreland (L) C C. Vazquez (R) LF Brock Holt (L)
Gotta love that .450 OPS and sub par defense in LF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2017 14:21:39 GMT -5
Yeah, Brentz would have been nice. Hopefully Holt gets zero action out there, and they go with Young close to full time. Another option is to give Nunez a start here and there in LF, with Marrero at second. Thing is, even though Brentz is a poor outfielder, Young/Holt/Nunez are all below average as well. Ugh. Brock Holt is a career +12 DRS/150 in LF and +31 in RF, a tougher position. The sample (including +0 in 74 innings in CF) is 90% a full season, so it can be regressed to an overall +10 in LF, + 6 in RF, -2 in CF, with a surprising amount of confidence.* And that more or less matches my eyeballs on the nose. I want him in LF for most of the games versus RHP. *Contrary to SABR wisdom, there is no great increase in predictive value as you add seasons. That assertion is based on the size of season-to-season variation, but you simply don't find it when you compare season-to-season correlation as a function of sample size (of the season with the smaller sample), or, even more importantly, the variance in measurements as a function of sample size. And regressions predicting a given season based on three previous years are only a tiny fraction better than ones with two seasons. You regress two seasons by taking half of the previous year plus 25% of year-2. For one season, you take 70%, but I took 50% for Holt to be on the safe side. (Caveat: that study was done with UZR, not DRS. Reverse caveat: I subsequently did a big study of DRS data for OF, broken down into Plays Made, Arm, and Good Fielding Plays, deriving for each factor the sample sizes where you didn't need to regress ... the overall conclusion was the same. IIRC, Plays Made stabilized in less than a season and GDP took a bit more more than two.) The obvious conclusion is that a lot of year-to-year variation in fielding is real performance variation, not SSS noise. Anyone who watched Coco Crisp play out of his mind in CF for just one year can buy the notion that we may be seriously underestimating the variance and streakiness of fielding.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2017 14:23:45 GMT -5
But was Addison Reed available last night? lol, maybe you didn't catch the part where Farrell talked with him before the first game when it was first decided. You can't look at these things in a black vacuum cleaner box. It took 20 years of watching baseball, but I think I may have learned my lesson. If a reliever is unavailable, he's unavailable. You can't pitch him anyway just because of what you think might possibly happen the next game. Baseball is too unpredictable. Who would have thought the Red Sox would win two out of three against New York, and the one game they didn't win was the Chris Sale start?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2017 14:29:13 GMT -5
Could also Velazquez getting sent down for a more traditional short reliever or outfield help. He made sense yesterday with the bullpen depleted in case Fister got knocked around, but it'd be my preference to keep him on rotation in Pawtucket. Agreed. But maybe they keep him one more night in case Pomeranz's back flares up again mid game. If all goes well, he's back in Pawtucket tomorrow and we get to see what Bryce Brentz can do in Boston. I hope his new mechanics can produce at the MLB, too. Great call. Velazquez as a 13th man on the staff makes perfect sense with Fister and Pomeranz going back to back, and may well be the main reason they swapped E-Rod and Fister in the rotation. Effectively, it's Robbie Scott who is replacing Barnes in the pen. And when you have two regulars on the DL and hence two bench guys in the starting lineup, that's the last time you want to be going with a 3-man bench. I'm either hoping or guessing we see Brentz by Friday at the latest.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2017 14:51:06 GMT -5
2B Eduardo Nunez (R) RF Mookie Betts (R) CF A. Benintendi (L) DH Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Rafael Devers (L) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) 1B Mitch Moreland (L) C C. Vazquez (R) LF Brock Holt (L) Gotta love that .450 OPS and sub par defense in LF. Where did the idea that Holt is a subpar OF defender get started? He made headlines for making highlight-reel catches in his first few games out there, and has been a plus defender in each of his seasons Aha, maybe people are looking at UZR. The shouldn't. It's never been revised since it was invented. Rawlings asssembled a SABR panel to devise a composite metric that they could share with GG voters, and UZR isn't included. Now, if the team agrees with me that Holt gets first shot in LF because he's easily the best defender, and to see if his bat has some life after his 2 hits in the Yankee finale (the last of which was actually hit hard), then Marrero as the first guy called up makes perfect sense.In fact, if Holt has one or two good games at the plate, you could see Travis before Brentz. The choice is between the following vs. LHP: Brentz LF / Hanley 1B / Young DH Young LF / Travis 1B / Hanley DH The second line may be better. Probably not, but it's debatable.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 23, 2017 15:02:34 GMT -5
Yeah, I'll admit I exaggerated because I'm so down on his bat right now, and I don't think his defense is enough to justify it. He was a legitimately plus defensive outfielder in 2014, particularly in RF. Since then, he's been closer to average and prone to some rough misplays.
How are you projecting his bat RoS? It's tough, especially given the serious concussion issues. He doesn't look right, and as long as he can't even sniff a 85 wRC+, I'd much rather have Brentz out there.
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cutz
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Post by cutz on Aug 23, 2017 15:28:13 GMT -5
HAHAHA>Good one. Not sure i should go off topic: but what do you Celtics fans think of the Kyrie-IT trade? Just head on over here to find out. Thanks. Sucks about JBJ, as he was on one of his hit streaks. I was thinking Brentz too. Is he on the 40 man?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2017 16:20:51 GMT -5
Thanks. Sucks about JBJ, as he was on one of his hit streaks. I was thinking Brentz too. Is he on the 40 man? From the school of give a man a fish/teach a man to fish: No, see here www.soxprospects.com/40man.htm
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Post by Guidas on Aug 23, 2017 16:29:20 GMT -5
JBJ's thumb in a splint so likely to last more than 10 days.
Crap.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 16:36:08 GMT -5
Why oh why couldn't JBJ's injuries come during a cold streak? His knee injury and this injury probably killed his entire season since he relies a lot on the torrid hot streaks that he was just starting to enter now.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 23, 2017 16:56:34 GMT -5
I will readily admit that I am not a fan of Holt and believe he plays way too much for a first division team and his offensive and defensive limitations get exposed. I think the Red Sox would be much better suited with Lin over Holt. I am baffled why Morero has been called up with JBJ going on the 10 Day disabled list today, Also, annoyed at Butterfield sent JBJ in yet another aggressive base tuning decision. Rant over.
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Post by soxfando on Aug 23, 2017 16:57:52 GMT -5
2B Eduardo Nunez (R) RF Mookie Betts (R) CF A. Benintendi (L) DH Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Rafael Devers (L) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) 1B Mitch Moreland (L) C C. Vazquez (R) LF Brock Holt (L) Gotta love that .450 OPS and sub par defense in LF. 2017 Chris Young vs RHP: 267/336/483 - 819 OPS 2017 Brock Holt vs RHP: 176/250/206 - 456 OPS Assuming keeping the roster as is, why isn't Young our always-4th outfielder? That's exactly what he is and why the sox signed him. Holt should be played on a last resort utility basis.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2017 17:00:32 GMT -5
JBJ's thumb in a splint so likely to last more than 10 days. Crap. He's only going to be in that splint for 5-7 days though from what I've heard.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 17:03:26 GMT -5
2B Eduardo Nunez (R) RF Mookie Betts (R) CF A. Benintendi (L) DH Hanley Ramirez (R) 3B Rafael Devers (L) SS Xander Bogaerts (R) 1B Mitch Moreland (L) C C. Vazquez (R) LF Brock Holt (L) Gotta love that .450 OPS and sub par defense in LF. 2017 Chris Young vs RHP: 267/336/483 - 819 OPS 2017 Brock Holt vs RHP: 176/250/206 - 456 OPS Assuming keeping the roster as is, why isn't Young our always-4th outfielder? That's exactly what he is and why the sox signed him. Holt should be played on a last resort utility basis. Both players are below replacement level but the hope is that Holt can improve after missing most of the season. I'd rather have Brentz than either of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2017 17:25:25 GMT -5
JBJ's thumb in a splint so likely to last more than 10 days. Crap. He's only going to be in that splint for 5-7 days though from what I've heard. Yeah a splint doesn't say to me that he's out for longer than 10 days. That could be the case, but like PFF said, being in a splint for a week isn't unheard of.
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Post by soxfando on Aug 23, 2017 17:43:58 GMT -5
Assuming keeping the roster as is, why isn't Young our always-4th outfielder? That's exactly what he is and why the sox signed him. Holt should be played on a last resort utility basis. Both players are below replacement level but the hope is that Holt can improve after missing most of the season. I'd rather have Brentz than either of them. Holt's prime is less than Young's present (let alone Young's prime, when he was allowed to get going as an everyday player). I just don't see why Holt should get playing time over Young in the outfield given the current state of affairs. Would be interested to see what Brentz can do now too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 23, 2017 17:51:41 GMT -5
He's only going to be in that splint for 5-7 days though from what I've heard. Yeah a splint doesn't say to me that he's out for longer than 10 days. That could be the case, but like PFF said, being in a splint for a week isn't unheard of. Just stinks that JBJ might miss most if not all the Yankees series coming up. They could really benefit from his left handed bat in Yankee stadium and they especially will miss his glove in one of the most spacious CF in all of baseball. They could benefit if they put Mookie in CF and put Youbg/Brentz/Holt in RF but they won't because of Farrell.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 23, 2017 17:56:38 GMT -5
Let's Clobber Kluber
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 18:11:11 GMT -5
Before anyone starts complaining about the hitting tonight, a PSA - this pitcher guy is pretty good.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Aug 23, 2017 18:13:01 GMT -5
I'm saying Pomeranz is going to bask in the afterglow of Fister's gem. Good things are going to happen on the diamond tonight.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2017 18:23:35 GMT -5
What happened to JBJ's finger? Anything that looked serious? He ran home and there was a close play at home. He kind of slapped the plate with his hand to get around the tag. Came up kind of shaking it and left the game. I don't think it's anything serious probably just jammed it. And of course, this had to happen JUST as he was heating up at the plate.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 23, 2017 18:26:37 GMT -5
Raji Davis to Sox might mean JBJs hurt worse than they're letting on. Also not good for Brentz.
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Post by soxfando on Aug 23, 2017 18:29:58 GMT -5
He ran home and there was a close play at home. He kind of slapped the plate with his hand to get around the tag. Came up kind of shaking it and left the game. I don't think it's anything serious probably just jammed it. And of course, this had to happen JUST as he was heating up at the plate. Overly aggressive baserunning causes more problems than just ugly outs on the bases in key situations...
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