SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2018 Red Sox roster building
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 11:28:59 GMT -5
Wow, with Wade Davis signing with Colorado for a deal that could be as high as 4 years $66 million, that really ups Craig Kimbrel's contract once his current one expires.
If Davis is worth $16.5 million/year then Kimbrel is worth at least $18 million if not $20 million/year. He could be looking to get a 5 year $100 million deal if he dominates again this season.
That Davis deal will certainly make it harder for the Red Sox to retain Kimbrel after this season.
Kimbrel has been pretty consistent (he had his offyear with a finger injury in 2016) and mostly dominating, but it's hard to think of him as being dominating for another 5 years beyond 2018, but he's going to get paid, whether it's by the Red Sox or somebody else.
It's amazing how much, since that 2015 World Series, the relief pitcher market has jumped up. It was almost always seen as a fungible market prior to that.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 11:32:40 GMT -5
I would really like to see the Sox build a super bench. Like with players like Nunez, Cargo,Howie Kendrick Wertz I'd like that too but I'd prefer they spend the money on a needed middle of the order bat - JDM. If they do that they won't have a lot of money left to build the bench, which I would anticipate would have four of these five players: Leon, Swihart, Brentz, Marrero (the first four are all out of options) and the loser of the Ramirez/Moreland 1b battle if they do sign JDM. I assume with Pedroia on the DL either Hernandez or possibly Quiroz platoons at 2b with Marrero. With the Sox likely to keep 12 pitchers it's hard to see both Leon and Swihart on the roster. I'd prefer Swihart as I think Leon is morphing back into the hitter he's almost always been. I like his catching, but they have to find out what they have in a healthy Swihart.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2017 11:46:48 GMT -5
I'm just not sold on JDM long term. I think if they can't dump Hanley's contract then plug him into the DH spot. And platoon him with Cargo. Then use Kendrick , Swihart, Holt and Nunez as super utility\bench
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 29, 2017 13:32:02 GMT -5
I'm just not sold on JDM long term. I think if they can't dump Hanley's contract then plug him into the DH spot. And platoon him with Cargo. Then use Kendrick , Swihart, Holt and Nunez as super utility\bench Most teams including the Red Sox have 4 players max on the bench, and oftentimes 3. That won't work. Plus, there's no indication that Swihart would be an acceptable backup catcher.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 13:32:50 GMT -5
I'm just not sold on JDM long term. I think if they can't dump Hanley's contract then plug him into the DH spot. And platoon him with Cargo. Then use Kendrick , Swihart, Holt and Nunez as super utility\bench Cargo might be more washed up than Hanley at this point. Leaving Colorado certainly wouldn't help him offensively. It is doubtful that if signed for say six years that JDM will hit what his contract says he should hit. The question is for how long will they get value out of his contract? That's usually the question you ask with any big free agent signing. They're almost always too long. Unfortunately I think the Red Sox are at a point where they face an extremely uncertain future in a couple of years and are at their best chance to win - right now. Having uncertainly like Cargo and Hanley in the middle of the lineup is too risky. I think they need somebody they can rely on that will mash. JDM is about the only one left that fits that. Stanton was the caliber of hitter that fits that too and Abreu is in that ballpark as well. And of course Machado can be as well, but the trade for the latter two would be costly and Stanton already didn't happen so the option for that caliber of hitter is pretty limited.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 29, 2017 13:34:00 GMT -5
Wow, with Wade Davis signing with Colorado for a deal that could be as high as 4 years $66 million, that really ups Craig Kimbrel's contract once his current one expires. If Davis is worth $16.5 million/year then Kimbrel is worth at least $18 million if not $20 million/year. He could be looking to get a 5 year $100 million deal if he dominates again this season. That Davis deal will certainly make it harder for the Red Sox to retain Kimbrel after this season. Kimbrel has been pretty consistent (he had his offyear with a finger injury in 2016) and mostly dominating, but it's hard to think of him as being dominating for another 5 years beyond 2018, but he's going to get paid, whether it's by the Red Sox or somebody else. It's amazing how much, since that 2015 World Series, the relief pitcher market has jumped up. It was almost always seen as a fungible market prior to that. Eh, you'd be surprised - Davis has arguably been the better pitcher over the last four years, and at the very least, they're comparable. I think he's basically setting the approximate bar for Kimbrel's deal before another year of inflation. I guessed 5/80 or 5/90 before the Davis deal and I don't think the Davis deal changes that.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 13:42:19 GMT -5
Wow, with Wade Davis signing with Colorado for a deal that could be as high as 4 years $66 million, that really ups Craig Kimbrel's contract once his current one expires. If Davis is worth $16.5 million/year then Kimbrel is worth at least $18 million if not $20 million/year. He could be looking to get a 5 year $100 million deal if he dominates again this season. That Davis deal will certainly make it harder for the Red Sox to retain Kimbrel after this season. Kimbrel has been pretty consistent (he had his offyear with a finger injury in 2016) and mostly dominating, but it's hard to think of him as being dominating for another 5 years beyond 2018, but he's going to get paid, whether it's by the Red Sox or somebody else. It's amazing how much, since that 2015 World Series, the relief pitcher market has jumped up. It was almost always seen as a fungible market prior to that. Eh, you'd be surprised - Davis has arguably been the better pitcher over the last four years, and at the very least, they're comparable. I think he's basically setting the approximate bar for Kimbrel's deal before another year of inflation. I guessed 5/80 or 5/90 before the Davis deal and I don't think the Davis deal changes that. I think you're basically correct - I rechecked the stats and Davis has been better over the last few years cumulatively (he was unhittable with KC for awhile) although Kimbrel was clearly better this past season and he is a year younger and has nastier stuff. If Kimbrel repeats his 2017 he might be able to get a deal larger than Davis', but if he doesn't then yeah, he'd fall in line with Davis.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 29, 2017 15:38:42 GMT -5
I think I am still a bit old school in my thinking that RP are guys who couldn't quite make it as starters and are not reliable from year to year. I know that is not totally true anymore but I have witnessed enough guys pitch poorly for the Sox out of the pen to be doubtful, it is a long list.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 29, 2017 16:21:31 GMT -5
I think Kimbrel is susceptible to a very rapid decline as most of his effectiveness is based on his velocity. There's no way I'd consider some $80+ million extension for him. Because when he starts not being elite anymore, he will become almost unpitchable not long after.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 29, 2017 16:43:59 GMT -5
You worry about any pitcher, they are a walking injury risk. At the same time Kimbrel has been very healthy and his velocity is still increasing. Started out at 95 mph rookie year and was over 98 mph last year. He's been a reliever his entire career unlike guys like Davis and Paplebon, who were starters at some point and had a lot more innings. So while I worry, the last thing I worry about is his velocity just disappearing. He was very good when he was at 95 mph. Guys like Bill Wagner never lost much velocity, even in his late 30s. The bigger worry is his contract and the impact it could have on resigning other players.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 29, 2017 17:46:05 GMT -5
You worry about any pitcher, they are a walking injury risk. At the same time Kimbrel has been very healthy and his velocity is still increasing. Started out at 95 mph rookie year and was over 98 mph last year. He's been a reliever his entire career unlike guys like Davis and Paplebon, who were starters at some point and had a lot more innings. So while I worry, the last thing I worry about is his velocity just disappearing. He was very good when he was at 95 mph. Guys like Bill Wagner never lost much velocity, even in his late 30s. The bigger worry is his contract and the impact it could have on resigning other players. Wagner is a freak of nature though. Mariano, Papelbon, Haufman all lost velocity as they aged. Maybe Kimbrel is a freak of nature like Wagner, but the odds are against him.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 29, 2017 18:04:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jiant2520 on Dec 29, 2017 18:19:53 GMT -5
Soooo tired of hearing about Ohtani already....
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 29, 2017 18:48:20 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Dec 29, 2017 19:22:34 GMT -5
I can think of very few players that make less sense to the Red Sox than Machado considering their history. I know these things change, but I don't want to play a hefty price to bet on that.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 29, 2017 19:41:39 GMT -5
I think Kimbrel is susceptible to a very rapid decline as most of his effectiveness is based on his velocity. There's no way I'd consider some $80+ million extension for him. Because when he starts not being elite anymore, he will become almost unpitchable not long after. Yeah, I am not paying him 80 million. Much cheaper alternatives. That said, we have this year to realize the best outcome for our investment. We haven't gotten squat from him for playoff numbers. We need him closing playoff games with multiple K's this year. Otherwise the trade will certainly fall in the net negative (not trying to start that whole thing again).
|
|
bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
|
Post by bosox on Dec 29, 2017 20:04:20 GMT -5
I can think of very few players that make less sense to the Red Sox than Machado considering their history. I know these things change, but I don't want to play a hefty price to bet on that. Agreed. Even aside from the history, I don't see it happening. Too many parts that don't make sense - either Xander goes in a trade or Devers goes in a trade or learns first base on the fly. Given that DD2 (Dan Duquette) has already said there would not be a window to negotiate a long-term deal, Machado would be a one-year rental and then you bid against the MFYs or another team. Who's your ss or 3b next year. So, you wouldn't be including Xander in a deal or moving Devers across the diamond or in a trade for one-year of Machado. Another issue, is Machado's wish to play ss in his walk-year. So, if he doesn't play ss, does he become unhappy and become a distraction.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Dec 29, 2017 20:49:08 GMT -5
I am keeping Devers, Mookie, Bennie and Sale. They can have whoever else for Machado, and of course need to know he will sign here.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 29, 2017 22:32:10 GMT -5
You worry about any pitcher, they are a walking injury risk. At the same time Kimbrel has been very healthy and his velocity is still increasing. Started out at 95 mph rookie year and was over 98 mph last year. He's been a reliever his entire career unlike guys like Davis and Paplebon, who were starters at some point and had a lot more innings. So while I worry, the last thing I worry about is his velocity just disappearing. He was very good when he was at 95 mph. Guys like Bill Wagner never lost much velocity, even in his late 30s. The bigger worry is his contract and the impact it could have on resigning other players. Wagner is a freak of nature though. Mariano, Papelbon, Haufman all lost velocity as they aged. Maybe Kimbrel is a freak of nature like Wagner, but the odds are against him. Is he though? Everyone loses velocity as they get into mid to late thirties. The question is how much? Rivera didn't lose much velocity even pitching into his 40s. Hoffmans velocity dropped after rotator cuff surgery and was never close to reaching 90 mph again. Paplebon is the worry as he dropped 4 mph in his mid 30s. For him that meant 95 plus turned into 90.9 in his last year. I'm not worried if Kimbrel is around 94-95 in his mid 30s. I would worry if he gets to 90-91.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 29, 2017 22:46:37 GMT -5
Wagner is a freak of nature though. Mariano, Papelbon, Haufman all lost velocity as they aged. Maybe Kimbrel is a freak of nature like Wagner, but the odds are against him. Is he though? Yes, Wagner is a freak of nature. He is the most dominant left handed reliever in MLB history and a borderline HOF. The good news is Kimbrel is in the same kind of class as Wagner when it comes to dominance and may be a freak of nature himself.
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 29, 2017 23:23:19 GMT -5
You also have to think that Colorado may have had to pay a premium to get Davis to go there, as you would think when any pitcher signs there. They've done what they can to minimize the affect of the altitude and location, but it's still a nightmarish place for a pitcher.
Using what I can find in a two minute search, it's got the worst scoring factor in baseball and fifth highest HR factor according to ESPN, and I believe Fangraphs and others have Coors ranked similarly.
Unless there is a tie in for Davis in Colorado, I've got to think they offered the most money, and given the Dodgers in the division and a massively crowded wild card field, it's not like it's a playoff destination type move. So they probably offered the most money and then some.
All that said, I'm damn sure not giving $100M to Kimbrel, or any RP. I'd probably be moderately comfortable guaranteeing Kimbrel four years at the Davis AAV, though I'd be hesitant that the contract becomes absolute garbage in two years. But if you can keep him at a similar cost to Davis, you almost certainly do it, hope to get two great years, one good year, and one mediocre year, and call it a day. He may be able to get 5 years guaranteed from someone, but I don't think it would make much sense for the Sox to do that
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 23:34:07 GMT -5
Interesting. Wasn't giving it much thought but seeing that makes me think either the Red Sox want him really badly or they're trying to get more leverage toward Martinez as in "you're not the only big bat we can get so the price needs to come down". The thing is that the Sox would have to pay a premium price to get a rental. I don't think the Sox will be able to negotiate a long-term deal with Machado unless they plan on spending $300 million or so, and even with that he might prefer to go to free agency. He or his agent must suspect that the Yankees would be interested. Duquette is not going to grant the Sox a window to negotiate the extension so you'd think it would keep the price down a bit. But would getting (or renting) Machado preclude the Sox from signing Martinez? If they sign Martinez that's a lot less money to throw toward Machado and/or expect to have a shot at extending Sale or Betts down the road, and Pomeranz and Kimbrel would be goners after the season I'd think. A lineup with Martinez and Machado added would certainly put the Red Sox lineup on par with the Yankees and Astros. But how would the rest of the infield be configured? Especially if they did get both as Martinez would be primarily the DH, which means they either simply deal Bogaerts away and have Machado at SS or they have to either DH or move Devers to 1b and Bogaerts to 3b if he isn't part of a deal, and if that's the case Hanley would be given away for next to nothing as he'd be out of job in that scenario and Moreland would be relegated to the bench (not that I have an issue with that). Either that or perhaps JBJ is dealt away in the deal instead of Bogaerts and Martinez winds up in LF with Hanley as DH? Don't think Dombrowski would do that, though. I don't take these rumors seriously - at least for now, but at this extremely boring time of the year for baseball it certainly does give a lot of food for thought.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 29, 2017 23:36:07 GMT -5
Yes, Wagner is a freak of nature. He is the most dominant left handed reliever in MLB history and a borderline HOF. The good news is Kimbrel is in the same kind of class as Wagner when it comes to dominance and may be a freak of nature himself. My point was in regards to velocity drop. Its not like he didn't decline, he did. He was just super elite to begin with, so even after declining he was still elite. Per Fangraphs by age 32 Relievers lose 1 mph on average, 34 it's 2 and by 37 it is 3 mph.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2017 8:39:43 GMT -5
Interesting. Wasn't giving it much thought but seeing that makes me think either the Red Sox want him really badly or they're trying to get more leverage toward Martinez as in "you're not the only big bat we can get so the price needs to come down". That was my immediate thought as well. Just more posturing trying to get JDM and Boras to blink. I honestly cannot believe that Angelos is interested in dealing with the Red Sox at all, especially given the rumors of wanting a guarantee that a team they traded him to would not flip him to the Yankees. I have to believe that would also apply to the Red Sox and we just haven't heard that.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 30, 2017 12:07:24 GMT -5
Interesting. Wasn't giving it much thought but seeing that makes me think either the Red Sox want him really badly or they're trying to get more leverage toward Martinez as in "you're not the only big bat we can get so the price needs to come down". That was my immediate thought as well. Just more posturing trying to get JDM and Boras to blink. I honestly cannot believe that Angelos is interested in dealing with the Red Sox at all, especially given the rumors of wanting a guarantee that a team they traded him to would not flip him to the Yankees. I have to believe that would also apply to the Red Sox and we just haven't heard that. DD and Duquette worked in the same front office several years ago, Montreal I think. Angelos is anti-Yankee extreme and that might actually work in our favor. "Our favor" assumes, of course, we don't mind having one of the dirtiest players in baseball on our team. LOL, I'd get over it real fast.
|
|
|