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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 4, 2018 15:32:02 GMT -5
Baseball Refrence gives .5 bwar add on for playing third base and 1.0 bwar add on for SS. The thing is how good is his D at SS? You say elite and I think Simmons, who averages 28 DRS over his 5 full seasons. He had a 7.1 bwar with an OPS+ of 103 last season, had a 7 war season with a 90 OPS+. Machado at that level with his bat is close to Trout, I have serious doubts he's an elite SS. Simmons is another level up from elite when it comes to SS defense. In any event, Machado is a superstar at either 3B or SS, and where he should play is really just an issue of the roster construction of whatever team he ends up on, I really wouldn't worry about the theoretical half win he gains from moving or not moving or whatever. The point was simple, for him to get the boost one poster thinks that SS gives him he needs to improve his DRS at SS. I agree he's a superstar at either position, yet I'm not saying him at SS gets him close to Trouts level. Which is a huge difference if he's a 6-7 war player or a 8-10 war player. SS gets like double the chances that a 3B gets, so it could happen. Yet his injury in 2014 seems to have taken him down a notch defensively after a 35 DRS at age 20 which is truly elite as elite gets. As James said how does that extra work defensively effect him? While not close to catching, it's still the second most demanding defensive position in Baseball. When talking about if Red Sox should trade for him and give him a massive contract it really does matter. If Pedro is right and maybe he is, you go after him hard. I am personally a little more worried than he is. |
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Post by mattpicard on Jan 4, 2018 17:20:25 GMT -5
Machado's 2013 defensive season at third base was truly beyond elite. He won't come close to that again, but his current defense at third is in the range of very good to outstanding. There's not enough data to pass a solid judgment of his defense as a shortstop, but I'd estimate it'll be average-ish as he rounds out his 20s, and that'll offset most if not all of the WAR boost he'll get from playing a more valuable position.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 4, 2018 18:14:51 GMT -5
Over the past 4 seasons UZR/150 and DRS each rate Machado as the 3rd best qualified (14 3rd baseman qualified) 3rd baseman, with Beltre and either Arenado or Rendon being better. He's almost even with the 4th best 3rd baseman - Josh Donaldson. His DRS was just under 10 per year and his UZR/150 was just under 9. He's very good, but not great/outstanding/whateverwordyoucomeupwith.
Machado has played about 1/3 of a season at SS as well over that time, with 2 DRS (6-7 if extrapolated to a year) and a 5 UZR/150. This would make him an above average SS but certainly nothing special. If he put up these same numbers over the entire 2017 season, he would have ranked 6th and 11th respectively (it should be noted that 2017 was a down year for SS defense). I think it would be fair to peg him around there to start with the defense declining as he ages.
As Matt Picard mentioned, Machado's defensive reputation mostly comes from a single season 5 years ago, before he bulked up and started hitting home runs. The same thing happened with Trout with his reputation as a great fielder carrying a few years after he had bulked up and was no longer more than an average fielder. But for those who are looking for a 'superstar', I don't think the defensive decline will affect his standing the same way it never hurt Trout.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 5, 2018 15:53:53 GMT -5
Trade for this guy ASAP
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2018 20:41:08 GMT -5
Sox avoid arbitration RHP Steven Wright Wright signs a 1 year deal worth 1.1 million
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 5, 2018 21:25:13 GMT -5
Sox avoid arbitration RHP Steven Wright Wright signs a 1 year deal worth 1.1 million Up from $593,500 last year. MLB Trade Rumors had him at $1.2 million. Nicely done. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2018 21:33:52 GMT -5
Sox avoid arbitration RHP Steven Wright Wright signs a 1 year deal worth 1.1 million Up from $593,500 last year. MLB Trade Rumors had him at $1.2 million. Nicely done. Proof that this thread aren't the only ones building the 2018 Red Sox roster |
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jan 6, 2018 12:10:02 GMT -5
My vote is to avoid going over five years with JDM. Boras market for this client is low, wait him out. Move forward on supplementing the pen.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2018 12:27:53 GMT -5
My vote is to avoid going over five years with JDM. Boras market for this client is low, wait him out. Move forward on supplementing the pen. Welcome to Sox Prospects bigmarty58. Great first post. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2018 13:20:22 GMT -5
My vote is to avoid going over five years with JDM. Boras market for this client is low, wait him out. Move forward on supplementing the pen. There has been rumors of the Sox having interest in relievers but no reports of offers to them. The only reported offer by the Sox was to JDM . And I feel the same about JDM but in the free agent market this year he's the best available. There's a sub forum for proposed trades with members own ideas. They do need to be proposed by a higher power. But by us the fans. Sounds like fun. I may try to find the the right launch angle and the right exit velocity to get rid of Hanley's contract! Welcome again. |
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jan 6, 2018 16:47:09 GMT -5
My vote is to avoid going over five years with JDM. Boras market for this client is low, wait him out. Move forward on supplementing the pen. Welcome to Sox Prospects bigmarty58. Great first post. Thanks, been a lurker for several years. Decided to jump in and contribute. |
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jan 7, 2018 8:17:04 GMT -5
At some point, hopefully soon, the Red Sox move on from the Martinez negotiations. Someone like Bruce will likely cost less years and money, plus he has a significantly better track record. He is also less than 1/2 year older than Martinez.It appears he has two offers for 3 years but he wants 4 years. Thus the Red Sox better move fast or they will continue to play Boras game. www.sny.tv/mets/news/free-agent-of1b-jay-bruce-has-two-multi-year-offers/264263306 |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 7, 2018 8:43:23 GMT -5
How exactly does he have a better track record?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 7, 2018 10:03:42 GMT -5
I don't understand why the Red Sox would move on from JDM other than impatience. Obviously the market isn't giving him what he wants, why give up on him when he's negotiating at a disadvantage?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 7, 2018 10:36:55 GMT -5
At some point, hopefully soon, the Red Sox move on from the Martinez negotiations. Someone like Bruce will likely cost less years and money, plus he has a significantly better track record. He is also less than 1/2 year older than Martinez.It appears he has two offers for 3 years but he wants 4 years. Thus the Red Sox better move fast or they will continue to play Boras game. www.sny.tv/mets/news/free-agent-of1b-jay-bruce-has-two-multi-year-offers/264263306How does moving on from a superior player for no reason at all for an inferior player help the Red Sox? Jay Bruce is nowhere near as good as JDM nor does he have a "significantly track record". Being inpatient for no reason doesn't help the Red Sox get better. It's not like if they don't sign him by such and such a date (as annoying as it is) that means they have to go to Plan B. Nobody has offered what JDM wants so he hasn't signed and it's not like he's sitting out the season and/or retiring. He will have to sign by spring training and more likely sooner. And from all reports it doesn't appear that anybody is in a hurry to top the offer the Red Sox have thrown out. |
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 7, 2018 11:07:36 GMT -5
How exactly does he have a better track record? Well it was true in 2013. Of course it was also true that in 2013 that the GOP was trying to make inroads with Hispanic voters... |
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jan 7, 2018 11:28:21 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jan 7, 2018 11:48:52 GMT -5
I'm very confused by this. First off, we wouldn't play either Bruce or Martinez in our current OF. So lets compare offensive numbers for a quick minute: Bruce wRC+ from 2014-2017: 79, 93, 111, 118 Martinez wRC+ from 2014-2017: 154, 136, 141, 166 Those two sets of numbers are not comparable. Their ranges are non-overlapping and not really even close to overlapping. One of those sets of numbers is league average on the whole, the other is elite offensively. There is no argument for consistency that favors Bruce. You would have to go back to 2013 to find a year that Bruce was the better offensive player and I doubt anyone would argue that 2013 (when Martinez was a part-time player in Houston) is a better predictor of 2018 performance than 2014-2017. Remember, we're not going to pay either player to play in our OF. We're trying to put the best bat in our lineup as possible and there is only one elite option that won't cost our farm system. If there is one thing I've learned this offseason, its that many fans have no idea how good J.D. Martinez has been offensively since his emergence in Detroit. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 7, 2018 12:24:05 GMT -5
Yes, Bruce will cost less and likely for less years. There the same age (3 months difference). There's a vert clear and obvious difference for this - he's not as good. And it's not close if you ignore JDM's first few years in Houston. It's not cherry picking, it's looking at his numbers since he emerged (apparently figured something out).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 12:34:25 GMT -5
I'm very confused by this. First off, we wouldn't play either Bruce or Martinez in our current OF. So lets compare offensive numbers for a quick minute: Bruce wRC+ from 2014-2017: 79, 93, 111, 118 Martinez wRC+ from 2014-2017: 154, 136, 141, 166 Those two sets of numbers are not comparable. Their ranges are non-overlapping and not really even close to overlapping. One of those sets of numbers is league average on the whole, the other is elite offensively. There is no argument for consistency that favors Bruce. You would have to go back to 2013 to find a year that Bruce was the better offensive player and I doubt anyone would argue that 2013 (when Martinez was a part-time player in Houston) is a better predictor of 2018 performance than 2014-2017. Remember, we're not going to pay either player to play in our OF. We're trying to put the best bat in our lineup as possible and there is only one elite option that won't cost our farm system. If there is one thing I've learned this offseason, its that many fans have no idea how good J.D. Martinez has been offensively since his emergence in Detroit. I'm having a hard time convincing myself that the Sox should sign a player for 23m-28m a year to play DH. They paid David Ortiz 16m in 2016 and got 38hr 127rbi .315ba .401obp. Nelson Cruz 14m in 2017 39hr 119rbi.288ba .375obp What would Edgar Martinez get in this market with his 1995 season. 29hr 113rbi .356ba .474obp Frank Thomas? Paul Moliter? |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 7, 2018 12:46:55 GMT -5
I'm very confused by this. First off, we wouldn't play either Bruce or Martinez in our current OF. So lets compare offensive numbers for a quick minute: Bruce wRC+ from 2014-2017: 79, 93, 111, 118 Martinez wRC+ from 2014-2017: 154, 136, 141, 166 Those two sets of numbers are not comparable. Their ranges are non-overlapping and not really even close to overlapping. One of those sets of numbers is league average on the whole, the other is elite offensively. There is no argument for consistency that favors Bruce. You would have to go back to 2013 to find a year that Bruce was the better offensive player and I doubt anyone would argue that 2013 (when Martinez was a part-time player in Houston) is a better predictor of 2018 performance than 2014-2017. Remember, we're not going to pay either player to play in our OF. We're trying to put the best bat in our lineup as possible and there is only one elite option that won't cost our farm system. If there is one thing I've learned this offseason, its that many fans have no idea how good J.D. Martinez has been offensively since his emergence in Detroit. I'm having a hard time convincing myself that the Sox should sign a player for 23m-28m a year to play DH. They paid David Ortiz 16m in 2016 and got 38hr 127rbi .315ba .401obp. Nelson Cruz 14m in 2017 39hr 119rbi.288ba .375obp What would Edgar Martinez get in this market with his 1995 season. 29hr 113rbi .356ba .474obp Frank Thomas? Paul Moliter? I think we can all agree that Ortiz was vastly underpaid compared to what he produced while he was in Boston. It's one of the reasons why he blasted Theo Epstein a few years ago. There's a market adjustment for elite bats coming, just like there's a adjustment for elite relievers, closers or non closers. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 7, 2018 12:58:22 GMT -5
He hit .315/.358/.553 in 2014, and .307/.373/.553 in 2016, in what world are those not "good years" for a DH acquisition? For another perspective, since his breakout in 2014*, JD Martinez has a higher wRC+ than David Ortiz did from 2014-2016 (148 & 146). JD has hit .300/.362/.574 over that time, while Ortiz hit .284/.373/.565. The only negatives are his defense and the fact he hasn't played more than 120 games the past two seasons, but given he'll be the primary DH those aren't too concerning right now. Jay Bruce simply isn't close to the type of hitter than JD has been over the past four seasons. *Edited previous statistical mistake |
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 7, 2018 15:21:47 GMT -5
He hit .315/.358/.553 in 2014, and .307/.373/.553 in 2016, in what world are those not "good years" for a DH acquisition? A world in which "consistency" is more important than being good. The "inconsistent" player's bad seasons are better than the consistent player's good ones. Jay Bruce has hit .237/.303/.457 and posted a 3.0 total bWAR from ages 27 to 30. Forget comparing him to JD Martinez,; if the Red Sox inexplicably picked up Hanley Ramirez's 2019 option tomorrow, it would be a better transaction than signing Jay Bruce. Bryce Brentz is better at baseball than Jay Bruce. Anything more than a minor league contract with a spring training invite is too much of a commitment to Jay Bruce. I hope I am emphasizing enough how bad an idea Jay Bruce is. Don't sign Jay Bruce. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Jan 7, 2018 15:44:46 GMT -5
If Boston cannot come to terms with JD Martinez, I hope they try to make a trade happen.
I really don't like any other free agent, except Hosmer, who doesn't fit anymore, so I would rather not commit any money past this year.
I like McCutchin as an option if JD is gone.
I really hope Bruce is not considered. I don't think he is an upgrade over Hanley...
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Post by p23w on Jan 7, 2018 16:51:01 GMT -5
If Boston cannot come to terms with JD Martinez, I hope they try to make a trade happen.
I really don't like any other free agent, except Hosmer, who doesn't fit anymore, so I would rather not commit any money past this year. I like McCutchin as an option if JD is gone. I really hope Bruce is not considered. I don't think he is an upgrade over Hanley... Me, if Martinez is not obtained, I'd really prefer to see Brenz given a fair shot before a trade. |
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