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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 3, 2018 12:13:47 GMT -5
So after listening to the Bowden audio he just says Groome and a player off the roster. He didn't even say if it was 25 man or 40 man roster. They then speculate it's a positional player of great value, because it was termed an aggressive offer. He admits he doesn't know anymore. A Red Sox source could think Groome and Swihart or Groome and Wright is an aggressive offer. After listening to that I think DD would like to add Machado, but only on a fair deal and this could certainly be him trying to pressure Boras as others have said.
Lets be real an aggressive offer from DD would most likely be more than two players. He traded four guys for Thornburg.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2018 12:16:13 GMT -5
Not that I want him gone but Groome is far from a sure thing IMO. Agreed. No 19 year old A ball pitcher is a sure thing. Evah. This is true. What Groome has is a pedigree. He fell to 12th in the draft in the first round and the Sox scooped him up. But if not for the gossipy type rumors, he might have been picked first in the entire draft. That is a talented kid, the kind of talent the Red Sox rarely have in the farm system. Yes he could be the next Todd Van Poppel or the next Mark Appel, but if any pitcher is going to develop into something significant it's likely this kid. At some point the Sox have to try to develop some young starting pitcher, don't they? They can't keep trading them all away.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2018 12:16:49 GMT -5
Bowden usually talks in a general sense. I'm sure he was assuming one of the players from the 25 man roster.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 3, 2018 12:38:16 GMT -5
I would believe the signing of Moreland was a strong indication that the front office has eliminated first baseman signing so Hosmer doesn't seem to be on the radar. My main concerns are the overloaded portside rotation and the signing of the 3 B's (Benintendi is a baby B and not included in original). I don't feel there is any way to resign all three especially with Boras being the agent for both Bogaerts and Bradley. As for the portside heaviness, I was hoping we could have made a deal with one or more of the Bs along with a lefty to acquire a top end righty. The Yankees are going to match up rather well with our rotation, although Rodriguez has shown a high degree of success against them. I just feel that if we have only Porcello and Wright, if Wright makes the rotation, the team is vulnerable to strong right handed lineups. Of course having Rodriguez on the DL would make such a trade more difficult. Welcome to the site, Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2018 13:45:38 GMT -5
Bowden usually talks in a general sense. I'm sure he was assuming one of the players from the 25 man roster. Maybe he was referring to Deven Marrero rather than Bogaerts or Bradley.I still have trouble believing the Red Sox would spend a lot of talent (and Groome qualifies) to get - count 'em, 1 year of Machado. I'd be ok with sending Chavis, a 3b replacement for Machado in a year and another pitcher like a Mata, who has a decent shot of being in a rotation and has some upside, but giving up a potential ace/#2 starter, somebody with a really high ceiling and additional talent for a 1 year rental, as good as Machado is? And say you dealt Bogaerts for Machado straight up. In year 1 you get the additional quality of Machado vs Bogaerts, but in year 2 you're comparing whoever the Sox would have to pick up to play SS (unless they went with Hernandez who is more of a utilityman) versus Bogaerts and the dropoff you'd get would probably outweigh the benefit in year 1. And if Bogaerts isn't dealt, then once Pedroia comes back you have Machado, Bogaerts, Pedroia and Devers for 3 infield spots. None of this makes any sense. I think ultimately the Sox are going to have to capitulate a bit and give JDM a 6th year. Don't see too many other wonderful options. I don't think keeping the lineup as is will work well enough, even with the expectation of some bouncebacks/improvements.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 3, 2018 13:50:55 GMT -5
I agree Champs that Martinez is most likely the only real play the Sox have. If it was any other team besides the Orioles, the Sox might have a shot at Machado, but the Orioles are just a half backwards organization.
I just wanted it to be known that the Sox interest in Machado was real and it wasn't used for leverage. They actually have a lot of interest in the player.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2018 13:51:06 GMT -5
Groome is something around the #75 prospect in baseball. I know he was floated as a potential 1-1 pick back before the 2016 season, but he's not that. And the reason he didn't go #1 wasn't "petty gossip" or whatever. Baseball execs don't make decisions based on something they read and didn't like in Us Weekly. The concerns were clearly serious. And frankly, I'm not even positive it was just the off-field concerns that dropped him. He shouldn't have been ahead of Senzel (for one) on anyone's board strictly as an on-field judgment.
I know he seems super valuable and important because he's the current #1 in the Red Sox system, but on a straight value play, Groome as the top piece for even just one year of Machado (plus the comp pick, provided it got done in the offseason) is beyond fair. Now... whether the Red Sox should make a deal like that, given their current roster construction, that's a fair debate. But Machado is a decent bet to provide more value in 2018 than Groome will throughout his career.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 3, 2018 16:28:47 GMT -5
Groome is something around the #75 prospect in baseball. I know he was floated as a potential 1-1 pick back before the 2016 season, but he's not that. And the reason he didn't go #1 wasn't "petty gossip" or whatever. Baseball execs don't make decisions based on something they read and didn't like in Us Weekly. The concerns were clearly serious. And frankly, I'm not even positive it was just the off-field concerns that dropped him. He shouldn't have been ahead of Senzel (for one) on anyone's board strictly as an on-field judgment. I know he seems super valuable and important because he's the current #1 in the Red Sox system, but on a straight value play, Groome as the top piece for even just one year of Machado (plus the comp pick, provided it got done in the offseason) is beyond fair. Now... whether the Red Sox should make a deal like that, given their current roster construction, that's a fair debate. But Machado is a decent bet to provide more value in 2018 than Groome will throughout his career. For me, the bigger consideration is that we're now a year and a half from his being drafted - a 1-1 pedigree, true or not, doesn't matter after nearly as much after that length of time. On the field, he's only pitched 62 innings and been far from dominant, and apparently his early-season injury could have been the result of poor off-season conditioning per Alex Speier's reporting (mitigated now, probably, by the fact he's getting after it with Sale). In a re-draft of 2016 today, Groome probably goes between maybe 7 and 18 (Senzel, Bichette are your clear 1-2, imo, and then some order of Puk/Whitley/Quantrill/Anderson, and from there it depends on how you feel about Rutherford, Moniak, Lewis, Pint, Ray, Manning, Hays, Hansen, Wentz, Duplantier), although I won't bother to argue if you want to say he might go as high as like 5.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 3, 2018 18:09:29 GMT -5
I get worrying about his work ethic, but he was 18 years old and a hot shot. Sometimes they need a reality check, lets hope he got one and realizes you can just get by on talent in professional baseball. I do find it funny that with Espinoza when I brought up he was getting hit more than I expected it was he's young and look at those strikeouts. That's what matters. Groome was getting hit less in the same league and had a way higher strikeout ratio at the same age. He did walk too many guys, but injuries kept him from getting in a rhythm. Not what we hoped for, but he clearly still has thr build and stuff that had him ranked so high in the draft. 72 strikeouts in 55 innings is very impressive for an 18 years old.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 3, 2018 18:20:00 GMT -5
Bowden usually talks in a general sense. I'm sure he was assuming one of the players from the 25 man roster. You yourself say he sucks at speculating, so for me I take what his sources said and nothing more. The rest is just anyones guess really. I bet he has no clue if it was 25 man or 40 man, he was just repeating what a source told him. That source on purpose gave him info that was far from complete, so we would be having these very discussions. The real question is why? Was it Red Sox or Baltimore ? This whole thing creates just as many questions as it answers.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 3, 2018 18:57:08 GMT -5
I get worrying about his work ethic, but he was 18 years old and a hot shot. Sometimes they need a reality check, lets hope he got one and realizes you can just get by on talent in professional baseball. I do find it funny that with Espinoza when I brought up he was getting hit more than I expected it was he's young and look at those strikeouts. That's what matters. Groome was getting hit less in the same league and had a way higher strikeout ratio at the same age. He did walk too many guys, but injuries kept him from getting in a rhythm. Not what we hoped for, but he clearly still has thr build and stuff that had him ranked so high in the draft. 72 strikeouts in 55 innings is very impressive for an 18 years old. To expand on this: of all starting pitchers in the South Atlantic League he had the second best K/9 at 11.84 (filtered on 30+ IP). The only guy who did better was promoted to Salem.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2018 22:40:14 GMT -5
To expand on this: of all starting pitchers in the South Atlantic League he had the second best K/9 at 11.84 (filtered on 30+ IP). The only guy who did better was promoted to Salem. To be clear, I have no issue with Groome - I like him just fine. But as the main piece to get Manny Machado, I'd be 100% fine with it in a vacuum. The problem I'd have is the Red Sox aren't a team that needs Manny Machado. The holdup wouldn't be Groome, it'd be allocation of resources.
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 3, 2018 23:14:46 GMT -5
To expand on this: of all starting pitchers in the South Atlantic League he had the second best K/9 at 11.84 (filtered on 30+ IP). The only guy who did better was promoted to Salem. The problem I'd have is the Red Sox aren't a team that needs Manny Machado. I'll phrase it this way: They definitely do need a bat like his. It really boils down to what does Machado cost in resources and how long does he stay vs how effective will Martinez be in 4 or 5 years. Personally if I knew Machado would stay I'd go all in. I'd worry about who plays where later.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 3, 2018 23:24:46 GMT -5
The problem I'd have is the Red Sox aren't a team that needs Manny Machado. I'll phrase it this way: T hey definitely do need a bat like his. It really boils down to what does Machado cost in resources and how long does he stay vs how effective will Martinez be in 4 or 5 years. Personally if I knew Machado would stay I'd go all in. I'd worry about who plays where later. Sure. But realistically, Machado is worth more to a team that has an opening at shortstop or third base. I'd be willing to consider also trading Bogaerts if there was a great value, but I am very skeptical that is the case. I wouldn't trade Devers for nearly anyone alive, and I wouldn't consider moving him off of third base at this stage in his development. He needs the reps at third, where I believe he can be good. JD Martinez is nowhere near as good an overall player as Machado, but he's a better hitter. Even if the Red Sox put Machado at DH, they'd have to outbid teams that would be planning to play him at short and third, meaning he would be more valuable to those teams. They'd have to pay full value for a slugging shortstop without getting a max return for it. If Machado fit, then Groome-for-Machado, even one year of him, would be good. But it's impossible for me to dignify using Groome in such a way. They simply don't have the supply of prospects to be trading good ones for a player they don't need.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2018 23:25:55 GMT -5
I have been reading about Esteban Quiroz a recent signee of the Red Sox. One of the stories led to videos of him playing in the WBC and the Mexican league. I believe he could be a major part of the 2018 roster. For his size he shows some pop in his bat. Unfortunately I do not have the computer savvy to bring the links to this screen . But they can be found on you tube. Please check these out he could make things interesting.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 4, 2018 0:27:39 GMT -5
I have been reading about Esteban Quiroz a recent signee of the Red Sox. One of the stories led to videos of him playing in the WBC and the Mexican league. I believe he could be a major part of the 2018 roster. For his size he shows some pop in his bat. Unfortunately I do not have the computer savvy to bring the links to this screen . But they can be found on you tube. Please check these out he could make things interesting. www.overthemonster.com/2017/11/22/16689600/red-sox-esteban-quiroz-second-base-depth-chartSounds interesting. How is his D? After watching Velazquez pitch last year, that league has some talent. Getting a guy like Velazquez for depth was huge, one of the better under under the radar moves DD has made.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 4, 2018 1:07:45 GMT -5
Manny Machado is clearly just a luxury.
A 30 homerun bat at short stop with great to elite level defense just doesn't exist in baseball today, maybe Carrea soon.
For all the advocating I was making for Machado, I think there's maybe a 5 percent chance of it actually happening. Just is fun to see where Dave Dombrowski's thinking process is in a off-season and see who he is targeting.
....Just waiting for Martinez....any day now would be great Boras.......any other teams offering 5 years? You sure there is a market??
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 4, 2018 2:36:03 GMT -5
Not sure you can just assume Machado is great to elite at SS. He's going to be good, most likey very good, but the elite bar is very high at SS. Limited sample size but his D numbers match up with Lindor(on a down year for him) and Seager. Even Correa made a big jump on D. Those are good to great defenders with great bats for a SS. The SS depth in the league is really good right now. Tons of really good SS. It's like Jeter, Nomar and A-Rod with a few more guys added in.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2018 9:04:09 GMT -5
Can anyone make an educated guess about what Machado's WAR values may have been if he were playing SS for his entire career?
Also, what are the Orioles planning on doing at SS if they don't trade Machado? JJ Hardy's option wasn't picked up and he's probably heading for retirement.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 4, 2018 9:11:15 GMT -5
Can anyone make an educated guess about what Machado's WAR values may have been if he were playing SS for his entire career? It's hard to do that without knowing exactly how good he is defensively getting full-time reps there and how much the wear and tear would hurt his offensive production. He's really, really good at third base. Maybe he gets a 1.0 annual boost in WAR by moving over? That's pretty significant, of course. Playing primarily third base probably plays a role in his being able to suit up for 475 games in three years. That'd be a ton for a shortstop.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 9:12:04 GMT -5
Manny Machado is clearly just a luxury. A 30 homerun bat at short stop with great to elite level defense just doesn't exist in baseball today, maybe Carrea soon. For all the advocating I was making for Machado, I think there's maybe a 5 percent chance of it actually happening. Just is fun to see where Dave Dombrowski's thinking process is in a off-season and see who he is targeting. ....Just waiting for Martinez....any day now would be great Boras.......any other teams offering 5 years? You sure there is a market??
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2018 9:40:06 GMT -5
Esteban Quiroz has played 2b 3b CF LF RF and ss. Quiroz played 7 seasons in Mexico.
2b 196 games 109games started 318 chances 15 errors .984 fld% RF/9 5.45 3b 119g 48gs 318ch 18e .948fld% RF/9 3.26 ss 249g 203gs 1162ch 37e .968fld% RF/9 5.08 CF 9g 0gs 8ch 0e 1.000fld% RF/9 2.67 LF 55g 18gs 62ch 1e .984fld% RF/9 1.67 RF 30g 9gs 38ch 0e 1.000fld% RF/9 2.25
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 4, 2018 9:59:43 GMT -5
I'm snowed in so I was watching MLB network and Peter Gammons was on.
He mentioned that the Red Sox have a four year offer to JDM (doesn't know the annual). He said right now "there is no team in sight willing to go 5 years at least $110, $120 million." He says Boras wants 7 years and eventually he anticipates the Sox and JDM will come to a deal.
He mentioned that the Sox could pick up money for Hanley to be dealt if he has an issue with not reaching his 497 plate appearances.
Personally I'd like to see Hanley start, but it doesn't sound like Moreland is here to be a defensive replacement/bat off the bench.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 4, 2018 10:07:10 GMT -5
Baseball Refrence gives .5 bwar add on for playing third base and 1.0 bwar add on for SS. The thing is how good is his D at SS? You say elite and I think Simmons, who averages 28 DRS over his 5 full seasons. He had a 7.1 bwar with an OPS+ of 103 last season, had a 7 war season with a 90 OPS+. Machado at that level with his bat is close to Trout, I have serious doubts he's an elite SS.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 4, 2018 10:48:41 GMT -5
Baseball Refrence gives .5 bwar add on for playing third base and 1.0 bwar add on for SS. The thing is how good is his D at SS? You say elite and I think Simmons, who averages 28 DRS over his 5 full seasons. He had a 7.1 bwar with an OPS+ of 103 last season, had a 7 war season with a 90 OPS+. Machado at that level with his bat is close to Trout, I have serious doubts he's an elite SS. Simmons is another level up from elite when it comes to SS defense. In any event, Machado is a superstar at either 3B or SS, and where he should play is really just an issue of the roster construction of whatever team he ends up on, I really wouldn't worry about the theoretical half win he gains from moving or not moving or whatever.
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