ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2017 2:01:29 GMT -5
He's going to be a great DH some day That'll be a long way away. He's a plus third baseman making rookie mistakes. He made 14 errors in 56 games and, according to DRS, cost the team 1 run. Think about that. (Yes, it means he made a dozen or more plays that the average 3B doesn't.) He has tremendous skills -- as anyone watching the games can tell. In the meantime, he became the youngest player in MLB history to hit a go-ahead postseason HR with his team trailing. Or put another way, no one younger has ever hit a more valuable post-season HR, i.e., one with a higher Win Probability Added. Miguel Cabrera had a game-tying HR at a younger age, and he, Manny Machado, and Andruw Jones had tie-breaking HRs, but no one younger ever flipped the scoreboard.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 9, 2017 7:58:44 GMT -5
There still appears to be plenty of seats for today's game. I decided to go about an hour ago and got a pavillon seat for $147 directly from the Red Sox. Kinda reminds me a little of 2003 when I got tickets for games 3 and 4 below face value as people bailed after the Red Sox went down 0-2. boston.redsox.mlb.com/ticketing/index.jsp?c_id=bos
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 7:59:50 GMT -5
Weather.com is saying that it's going to rain from 1 until 10. Accuweather.com is saying it's not supposed to rain until 5. I have no idea what to believe with these weather reports.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 9, 2017 8:11:12 GMT -5
Of course, if they just called the game and played in tomorrow's glorious weather, there'd be the downside of... slightly more travel fatigue? What's a Boston-to-Houston flight, like four hours? Just play tomorrow.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2017 8:11:27 GMT -5
Must be a bummer for the folks who gave up on this team around page 24 of this thread. They don't get to watch game 4, or see if the Sox can come back from the brink like they did in playoff series in 1999, 2003, and 2004.
Fortunately the team itself has never given up all season.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 9, 2017 11:02:22 GMT -5
The rule is no rain shortened games in postseason But what if rain come in 3rd inn? Do they suspend or start over from 1st inn?
If Sox lead, won't be surprised to see Pomeranz.
The lineup for game4 is still a comedy
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ericmvan
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Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2017 11:06:04 GMT -5
Do you change the batting order? (Of course, by the time I post this, it will already be announced ...)
Andrew Benintendi came into the post-season .138 / .242 / .241 in his last 9 G / 33 PA. He's 2/12, BB.
Mitch Moreland came in 5/15, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB in his last 4 games. He's 4/10, 2B, BB.
(There's more to consider. See the end.)
Pedey's hit the ball reasonably hard. Hanley's on fire. JBJ seems hot. Devers is coming off a great day. Mookie's wrist is obviously bothering him.
Xander was hot coming in, looked terrible but hit the ball on the screws his last time up yesterday.
Bogaerts Pedroia Moreland Ramirez Devers or Bradley Betts Bradley or Devers or Benintendi Vazquez Benintendi or Bradley
Benny is a career .267 / .326 / .422 hitter except in a very well-defined set of situations, where he has hit .333 / .442 / .462 in 95 PA, excluding 7 IBB. That's a clue -- those are his numbers with RISP and 1B open. In other words, he has been great when they knew they could pitch around him.
Now, hitters ordinarily walk more in those situations, but they hit for a lower average and less power. If you adjust for that, and weight every PA in a pitch-around situation (including milder ones, like 2 outs and runners on the corners) by the MLB average UBB rate in that situation, Benny has a .333 / .420 / .465 line (again, excluding IBB), which is a .320 EqA, versus .277 in neutral situations and .281 in challenge situations.
It might be a fluke. But J.D. Drew had that kind of a split his whole career, which is why he struggled as a #2 hitter and fared much better lower in the lineup. That Benny hits really well when he knows that they might be pitching around him makes perfect sense, because we've watched him take walks in that situation. (I think his next big step as a hitter, in fact, will be applying that approach to all his PAs.)
So, when he's going badly, it night well help him to be taken out of the heart of the order and put in a place where the next hitter is perceived as weak or struggling. I like him 9th, because if Xander continues to struggle, Benny might get somewhat worse pitches to hit, which paradoxically seems to help him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 11:10:42 GMT -5
The rule is no rain shortened games in postseason But what if rain come in 3rd inn? Do they suspend or start over from 1st inn? If Sox lead, won't be surprised to see Pomeranz. The lineup for game4 is still a comedy It wouldn't be the worst situation if that were that to happen. Suspend the game until tomorrow and have Pomeranz or Sale pick up where *hopefully* Porcello left off at this point. I don't know what the rule is in postseason play. Normally they wouldn't play through this crap but I haven't heard anything and I think this game is starting is starting on time.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 11:21:59 GMT -5
Farrell said that he heard from the weather forcasts that the Sox have a 3 and a half hour window to play baseball.
These playoff games have been averaging just that so far with the pitching changes being made. I don't know why they didn't play this game tomorrow.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 9, 2017 11:27:59 GMT -5
RAINOUT! RAINOUT! RAINOUT!
(ok, that's the best I can do).
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Post by Coreno on Oct 9, 2017 11:41:32 GMT -5
Apparently Farrell said after the game last night that he was going to bring Price back out for the 8th if they hadn't put those runs up in the bottom of the 7th.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 9, 2017 11:42:14 GMT -5
Not sure why we should want a rainout. We just got done smacking these guys around yesterday. They are the ones on the ropes. I am more concerned about them re-grouping.
Maybe it makes sense strategically, but really, it is going to be decided by the players at this point, so I am just not sure how much you have to overthink it. I think our guys are probably feeling pretty good today.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 9, 2017 11:42:48 GMT -5
Apparently Farrell said after the game last night that he was going to bring Price back out for the 8th if they hadn't put those runs up in the bottom of the 7th. which is very strange.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 11:46:17 GMT -5
Not sure why we should want a rainout. We just got done smacking these guys around yesterday. They are the ones on the ropes. I am more concerned about them re-grouping. Maybe it makes sense strategically, but really, it is going to be decided by the players at this point, so I am just not sure how much you have to overthink it. I think our guys are probably feeling pretty good today. I just don't want bad baseball being played or injuries to happen because of the bad playing surface. I love that baseball is on right now from my perspective, I'm on vacation.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2017 12:00:14 GMT -5
Pitching plan for today seems straightforward. You can get as many as 4 innings from Kimbrel, Reed, and Smith, so all you're hoping from Porcello is to get you to the 6th (ideally getting an out or two there).
And Porcello's on a short leash. If he's already giving up hard contact, you can't let him face a HR hitter if there are 2 men on base, or if there's a man on on and you're already down 1. You use Kelly to get out of that jam and then hand the ball to E-Rod and pray. He's completely capable of getting the ball to the final trio.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Oct 9, 2017 12:09:50 GMT -5
This is the first game I've been able to watch. Thank you Christopher Columbus.
Come on Rick Porcello. Do it!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 12:11:45 GMT -5
Christ Porcello, that was down the friggen middle of the plate.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 9, 2017 12:12:02 GMT -5
Porcello's performance last year really relied in him staying down in the zone. Once again this year he's up and it cost him. These guys will eat that belt high stuff alive.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 9, 2017 12:13:15 GMT -5
Feeling optimistic - we're overdue to have a starter not be terrible!
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Post by chrisfromnc on Oct 9, 2017 12:13:22 GMT -5
Yes. Please bunt, Josh.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 12:15:47 GMT -5
Get the bullpen warming John.
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Post by daltonjones on Oct 9, 2017 12:16:27 GMT -5
yup enough leash for me
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 9, 2017 12:16:54 GMT -5
Come on Rick. Be competitive now.
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Post by Coreno on Oct 9, 2017 12:17:00 GMT -5
Why is Porcello pitching, again...? Doesn't look very sharp here early.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2017 12:17:01 GMT -5
Now he can't throw strikes.
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