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Rusney or no Rusney? CBT is the issue
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 4, 2017 18:34:32 GMT -5
Castillo doesn't have to be Vladamir Guerrero to be a somewhat useful major league player. He has 1.4 fWAR in 337 major league plate appearances, and that was before he started hitting better last year. I think he might have been comparable to Adam Jones with less power and better defense if he had normal major league development.
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Post by jmei on Nov 4, 2017 18:50:22 GMT -5
No one skill (plate discipline, in this case) is a prerequisite to success. Castillo's skill set of plus contact, average to above-average power and plus CF defense is one that will play just fine even if he never improves his well below-average walk rate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 4, 2017 19:22:24 GMT -5
Agreed. The problem previously was his ultra-aggressive plate approach led to very high groundball rates and very few well-driven balls. The former is an enormous problem when/because it leads to the latter - see his 60+% GB rates in the majors.
This season, his GB% plummeted to 45.5%, down 7 percentage points from last year. If that's real, it is a huge development regarding his potential to be a productive major leaguer. He's fast, but not fast enough to beat the ball into the ground every PA and try to beat it out.
This was also his lowest BB% season since signing, but I don't have nearly as much of a problem with it if he's at least driving the ball when he puts it in play.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2017 22:42:41 GMT -5
Agreed...if RC has truly modified his approach to get somewhere in the 45/15/40 range (or, ideally, maybe 45/20/35), (edit: those are batted ball frequencies, GB/LD/FB), I think he has lots of value. He'd be an at least average starter (roughly 2.5 fWAR/600 PA) by historical performance, and with the reduced GB rate, and a few more Wall balls, potentially a 3 WAR player (which is 1st division starter territory). His contact skill has value situationally, and he's a former 2b, meaning he provides terrific Pedroia insurance, particularly at year's start. Not to mention, he's really not going to lose value by playing...his contract limits his value. But if he shows some versatility and some XB power, suddenly as a 3 WAR potential CF on a 1.5 WAR/yr FA value contract, he's a legit trade chip.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2017 6:29:45 GMT -5
Agreed...if RC has truly modified his approach ...., I think he has lots of value. ..., and he's a former 2b, meaning he provides terrific Pedroia insurance, particularly at year's start. ... Castillo provides zero Pedroia insurance. Alex Cora would be a better backup 2b than Castillo.
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Post by soxfando on Nov 5, 2017 13:26:29 GMT -5
59 walks a year for one of the most feared hitters in baseball is not a lot. That means he's a bad ball hitter, and a good one at that. But just to understand, you're saying if Rusney had walked 15 more times in 2017, then we could call his season awesome? You cited Guererro's atypical, worst-by-far, final season for walks as though it made Rusney's 11 walks look less bad. It doesn't. That was a terrible argument Now you're suggesting that 11 walks is not so bad because it's only 15 less than 26? That doesn't work either. Guerrero shows that bad ball hitters can be awesome. And an extra 15 walks for Rusney in 2017 would have given him a league average walk rate, which I gather is your starting point for an awesome season.
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Post by swingingbunt on Nov 5, 2017 14:55:45 GMT -5
You cited Guererro's atypical, worst-by-far, final season for walks as though it made Rusney's 11 walks look less bad. It doesn't. That was a terrible argument Now you're suggesting that 11 walks is not so bad because it's only 15 less than 26? That doesn't work either. Guerrero shows that bad ball hitters can be awesome. And an extra 15 walks for Rusney in 2017 would have given him a league average walk rate, which I gather is your starting point for an awesome season. Guerrero was successful without taking walks because he had absolutely elite skillsets in other areas. I'm not saying Castillo can't find a role in MLB (although I don't think he'll ever get the chance to), but he simply doesn't possess an elite skillset to be even a fraction of the worth as someone like Guerrero.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 5, 2017 15:04:02 GMT -5
Why is anyone talking about Guerrero? Who is saying that Castillo can be a Hall of Fame player? Castillo doesn't have to be a Hall of Fame player to be worth his contract or to have any trade value at all. Just stop the silliness. The only comparison to Vladimir Guerrero is that they're both baseball players.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 5, 2017 16:26:15 GMT -5
You cited Guererro's atypical, worst-by-far, final season for walks as though it made Rusney's 11 walks look less bad. It doesn't. That was a terrible argument Now you're suggesting that 11 walks is not so bad because it's only 15 less than 26? That doesn't work either. Guerrero shows that bad ball hitters can be awesome. And an extra 15 walks for Rusney in 2017 would have given him a league average walk rate, which I gather is your starting point for an awesome season. I really don't have a horse in this race, but this is really silly. This isn't about - oh he walks, he's great or oh he doesn't walk, he sucks. It's not that simple. Guys like Vlad, Kirby Puckett and Joe Carter can have excellent careers because their hitting tool was extremely good or elite. It's basically about slugging and on-base capabilities for offense, and if you can't walk your way on base you better hit your way on. Vlad could, and even if he wasn't a ton above average in the OBP department he had major slugging average skills that mitigated the OBP which was still good because he was good enough to hit his way on in his best seasons. If you're going to site a .290 BA and a handful of walks as evidence that you can have a HOF caliber career doing that, it's a silly argument because if every season Vlad had was like that he wouldn't have lasted long in baseball. Castillo doesn't have a great hit tool. If he doesn't walk at all, he won't hit his way on enough so he'd be an out machine, so the walks in his case do matter all the more. He's got good to excellent defensive skills so he can find a home in the majors, particularly on a bench, albeit at a too expensive rate. If he walks enough and he can hit well enough, mix it in with some power, and excellent speed and baserunning capabilities he could even have some seasons as a regular - probably what some here would term as a "second division" starter.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2017 16:39:26 GMT -5
Eh, Castillo's strikeout rates and batting averages have been pretty solid (he's hit .286 with a 15.2% strikeout rate in 970 minor league PAs and .262 and 18.7% in 337 major league PAs).
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Post by soxfando on Nov 5, 2017 17:17:57 GMT -5
Guerrero shows that bad ball hitters can be awesome. And an extra 15 walks for Rusney in 2017 would have given him a league average walk rate, which I gather is your starting point for an awesome season. I really don't have a horse in this race, but this is really silly. This isn't about - oh he walks, he's great or oh he doesn't walk, he sucks. It's not that simple. Guys like Vlad, Kirby Puckett and Joe Carter can have excellent careers because their hitting tool was extremely good or elite. It's basically about slugging and on-base capabilities for offense, and if you can't walk your way on base you better hit your way on. Vlad could, and even if he wasn't a ton above average in the OBP department he had major slugging average skills that mitigated the OBP which was still good because he was good enough to hit his way on in his best seasons. If you're going to site a .290 BA and a handful of walks as evidence that you can have a HOF caliber career doing that, it's a silly argument because if every season Vlad had was like that he wouldn't have lasted long in baseball. Castillo doesn't have a great hit tool. If he doesn't walk at all, he won't hit his way on enough so he'd be an out machine, so the walks in his case do matter all the more. He's got good to excellent defensive skills so he can find a home in the majors, particularly on a bench, albeit at a too expensive rate. If he walks enough and he can hit well enough, mix it in with some power, and excellent speed and baserunning capabilities he could even have some seasons as a regular - probably what some here would term as a "second division" starter. I just think it's silly that people are dogging Castillo for a low walk rate when he just hit 314/350/507/857 as a center fielder in Pawtucket. The reason I cited Vlad was to show that it's possible to be a free swinger and a good hitter at the same time. That's all. Not saying Rusney is the next Vlad or has the exact same skill set. And for those saying he's a 30 year old minor leaguer, i'll add that Yuli Gurriel signed out of Cuba as a 32 year old and just won a world series. Anyway, If the Sox didn't think Castillo had "first division" major league talent, they wouldn't have given him a 70 million dollar contract. Not sure what else he has to do to get "another shot" at MLB playing time. Walk more?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 5, 2017 19:14:45 GMT -5
I really don't have a horse in this race, but this is really silly. This isn't about - oh he walks, he's great or oh he doesn't walk, he sucks. It's not that simple. Guys like Vlad, Kirby Puckett and Joe Carter can have excellent careers because their hitting tool was extremely good or elite. It's basically about slugging and on-base capabilities for offense, and if you can't walk your way on base you better hit your way on. Vlad could, and even if he wasn't a ton above average in the OBP department he had major slugging average skills that mitigated the OBP which was still good because he was good enough to hit his way on in his best seasons. If you're going to site a .290 BA and a handful of walks as evidence that you can have a HOF caliber career doing that, it's a silly argument because if every season Vlad had was like that he wouldn't have lasted long in baseball. Castillo doesn't have a great hit tool. If he doesn't walk at all, he won't hit his way on enough so he'd be an out machine, so the walks in his case do matter all the more. He's got good to excellent defensive skills so he can find a home in the majors, particularly on a bench, albeit at a too expensive rate. If he walks enough and he can hit well enough, mix it in with some power, and excellent speed and baserunning capabilities he could even have some seasons as a regular - probably what some here would term as a "second division" starter. I just think it's silly that people are dogging Castillo for a low walk rate when he just hit 314/350/507/857 as a center fielder in Pawtucket. The reason I cited Vlad was to show that it's possible to be a free swinger and a good hitter at the same time. That's all. Not saying Rusney is the next Vlad or has the exact same skill set. And for those saying he's a 30 year old minor leaguer, i'll add that Yuli Gurriel signed out of Cuba as a 32 year old and just won a world series. Anyway, If the Sox didn't think Castillo had "first division" major league talent, they wouldn't have given him a 70 million dollar contract. Not sure what else he has to do to get "another shot" at MLB playing time. Walk more? It all depends on how well his hit tool works in the majors. Batting .314 does the trick, but the question is what will he hit in the majors? .270 - .300? Then if he's not a big walker, no big deal. If he shows good pop, good speed and a good glove, not the end of the world. If he's a .250ish hitter, than OBP will be pretty low, so he better show some major pop, major speed, and/or be a gold glove candidate. I really think it comes down to how well he hits, and if he has enough pop to go with it. So while walking more would help the better he hits the less important it would be, if that answers your questions. In 2015 he didn't hit enough. And the GM who signed him to that contract is no longer employed. I would say Gurriel is a good example of a guy who doesn't walk much but has a fantastic hit tool. If Castillo hits anything like him, you have a useful player. With Castillo he's been dogged by injuries. At this point he's a 10 million/year gamble. As a productive regular, that's a bargain. As a fringe or even bench player on a team up against the cap, whether it's the 197 figure or now the 237 figure, it's a luxury that they couldn't afford before. Maybe now they can. If they trade JBJ for a big bat or pitching, then perhaps if Castillo hits well you have something there for a little while. His age kind of works against him in a way it doesn't for Gurriel who is a corner infielder. Castillo's main value is his defense in CF, something that normally declines in the 30s. Without that, he probably doesn't have the bat for LF, although the typical bat in LF hasn't been as productive as it has been in the past.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 6, 2017 8:49:02 GMT -5
Why is anyone talking about Guerrero? . For the exact same reason people yell "GREG MADDUX" whenever a guy has good stats in Single A when throwing 88, or bring up Randy Johnson whenever a tall lefty can't hit the broadside of a barn. Sometimes players devolve into "types" rather than actual players.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 6, 2017 9:55:50 GMT -5
For discussion purposes, let's say they add Rusney to the active roster and he doesn't perform well, so they outright him off the 40 man once again by let's say the end of May. Does his entire salary count against the cap, or only a percentage based on the time he's on the 40 man?
Just asking because it might present a middle ground here, where adding him for depth at the beginning of the season does not necessarily mean the Sox are on the hook for the entire $10m right away. Or maybe it does, I do not know the rules on this.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 6, 2017 10:20:20 GMT -5
For discussion purposes, let's say they add Rusney to the active roster and he doesn't perform well, so they outright him off the 40 man once again by let's say the end of May. Does his entire salary count against the cap, or only a percentage based on the time he's on the 40 man? Just asking because it might present a middle ground here, where adding him for depth at the beginning of the season does not necessarily mean the Sox are on the hook for the entire $10m right away. Or maybe it does, I do not know the rules on this. Good question. As I understand, a player can only be outrighted to the minor leagues without his consent once in his career. If the Red Sox tried to do this again with Castillo, he could (and almost certainly would) elect free agency rather than accept assignment to Pawtucket, and the Red Sox would be on the hook for his remaining salary as well as the CBT obligations associated with it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2017 10:39:09 GMT -5
That's sort of right. If he had 5 years of service time, he could simply refuse the outright, forcing the club to release him, in which case they'd be on the hook for his remaining salary (this is what happened with Sandoval).
A player with at least 3 years of service time or who has been outrighted before can elect to become a free agent if outrighted, but doing so would terminate the contract. This is why Allen Craig did not elect free agency when he was outrighted the second time. This is the bucket that Castillo would fall into.
As for the CBT, Castillo would count for a prorated amount based on how long he was on the 40-man, I believe. However, the reason the option soxcentral presents isn't a good one is that there are far, far fewer options available in May than there are in the offseason if Castillo doesn't work out.
The way I'd play it is to leave him off the 40-man and if he's taken in Rule 5, he's someone else's problem now. If he's not, you bring him into camp with a real chance to win a bench spot, potentially, but you don't count on him to do so - I'd at least have him competing, if not Plan B or C.
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2017 13:07:14 GMT -5
My man Chris needs to be more direct. Until he reaches five years of MLB service time (he's at less than a year so far), I believe the Red Sox can outright Castillo as often as they'd like, and each time they do so, assuming that he clears waivers, Castillo would have to choose between either (a) becoming a free agent but giving up the guaranteed salary from his 2014 contract or (b) being sent to the minors (and remaining under Boston's control) but keeping that guaranteed salary. Allen Craig and Kei Igawa are examples of players who have been in similar situations in the past.
I think the only benefit of adding him to the 40-man roster now is protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, but I don't think that's much of a benefit-- I think the Red Sox would be happy to have another team take over his contract. Meanwhile, there are a few detriments-- it uses up a 40-man roster, and if Castillo gets injured in Spring Training, you have to carry his salary on the MLB payroll, which has negative luxury tax threshold implications (as compared to if he was injured as a non-roster invitee).
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Post by Coreno on Nov 6, 2017 14:03:58 GMT -5
The way I'd play it is to leave him off the 40-man and if he's taken in Rule 5, he's someone else's problem now. If he's not, you bring him into camp with a real chance to win a bench spot, potentially, but you don't count on him to do so - I'd at least have him competing, if not Plan B or C. I think the only benefit of adding him to the 40-man roster now is protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, but I don't think that's much of a benefit-- I think the Red Sox would be happy to have another team take over his contract. Meanwhile, there are a few detriments-- it uses up a 40-man roster, and if Castillo gets injured in Spring Training, you have to carry his salary on the MLB payroll, which has negative luxury tax threshold implications (as compared to if he was injured as a non-roster invitee). This is exactly what I've been saying for about 4 months. When worst case scenario is being rid of the headache that his contract situation has caused for the last 3 years, trying to sneak him through the offseason is probably worth the risk. I would probably spend the next month making calls to teams that are in the market for outfielders, just to gauge interest and see if you can get anything for him. But this might be a case where losing him for nothing isn't really a loss.
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Post by classylefthander on Nov 6, 2017 16:19:57 GMT -5
f) Outright Assignment to a Minor League club Any Uniform Player’s Contract that is assigned outright to a Minor League club during the term of this Agreement shall be included in the Club’s Actual Club Payroll. Any Uniform Player’s Contract that was assigned outright to a Minor League club prior to the effective date of this Agreement shall be excluded from Actual Club Payroll; provided, however, that if any Uniform Player’s Contract that was assigned outright to a Minor League club prior to this Agreement is subsequently selected to a Club’s 40-man roster, the entire remaining Salary under that Uniform Player’s Contract shall be included in Actual Club Payroll, even if the Player is thereafter assigned outright to a Minor League club.
The above is in the 16-21 CBA. If I read it correctly it means that if Castillo is brought up to the 40 man, then his salary is permanently on the MLB CBT payroll.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2017 16:38:23 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2017 16:38:32 GMT -5
Good find. I think that language is new in the latest CBA and I haven't seen it reported anywhere. Means that even if Castillo is outrighted and clears waivers again, his contract will still count against the luxury tax threshold, which hurts Boston's flexibility.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2017 16:48:21 GMT -5
Knowing that now, (1) there's no way they protect him from Rule 5, (2) there's almost no way he's picked in Rule 5, (3) it's VERY unlikely he comes up to the Red Sox unless they're desperate or he's destroying the ball in Pawtucket, and (4) his trade value is miniscule.
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Post by classylefthander on Nov 6, 2017 16:51:55 GMT -5
I feel like a wet blanket. This was a good discussion.
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2017 17:22:19 GMT -5
Knowing that now, (1) there's no way they protect him from Rule 5, (2) there's almost no way he's picked in Rule 5, (3) it's VERY unlikely he comes up to the Red Sox unless they're desperate or he's destroying the ball in Pawtucket, and (4) his trade value is miniscule. Under the most aggressive assumptions (i.e., that adding Castillo puts them over the $237M threshold), the penalty would be a 62.5% marginal tax (equal to a prorated $6.5M) and dropping ten spots in the draft ( this analysis suggests dropping from 21-25 to 31-35 costs a team $3.8M in present value), which adds up to ~$10.3M. There's also 2019-20 luxury tax considerations to consider. So yeah, it no longer looks like Castillo is that much cheaper to the Red Sox than he would be to another organization.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2017 17:24:38 GMT -5
That just sucks that the CBA changing can change a contract that much.
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