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Rusney or no Rusney? CBT is the issue
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Post by soxfando on Nov 6, 2017 18:37:21 GMT -5
Calling it now, if Rusney gets to start for another team next year, he'll be an all-star within 3 yrs
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Post by swingingbunt on Nov 6, 2017 19:08:22 GMT -5
Calling it now, if Rusney gets to start for another team next year, he'll be an all-star within 3 yrs Smart man. Never said "MLB team."
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 11, 2017 0:28:38 GMT -5
Knowing that now, (1) there's no way they protect him from Rule 5, (2) there's almost no way he's picked in Rule 5, (3) it's VERY unlikely he comes up to the Red Sox unless they're desperate or he's destroying the ball in Pawtucket, and (4) his trade value is miniscule. I wouldn't say it's VERY unlikely that he gets picked. I'd lose the capital letters. If you're a large market team that's been rebuilding and is therefore nowhere near the tax limit, and if you have a need for a starting OFer for 2017, and if your plan is to contend in 2018, it's a good gamble. I'd say it's likely to happen, in fact, if there were two such teams (and spending half an hour to determine whether that's true is one of the things I need to stop doing, per my personal tagline!) If there's only one, you probably pass, because ... You can wait and see how he does in Pawtucket, and if you're still the only suitor and he's been just as good or better, you can pick him up him for very little in trade, and pay less salary to play him while you're not contending. You can even wait until next year's Rule 5. It does seem that his chance of playing for the Sox again is 0%. The ideal scenario for the Sox is that he has a great season, and (as is not unlikely) at least two teams feel they could really use him as a mid-season pickup. His trade value right now is indeed zero, but it starts going up if he continues to play well. One thing the Sox should consider is giving him significant PT in LF as well as CF for Pawtucket, because that's where he's likely to play in MLB.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 12, 2017 22:06:56 GMT -5
You're mixing up two of my points, but same difference.
We can agree to disagree. I don't think 3/35.5 (with a ~$10.5 AAV) is a number a team is going to be willing to take on for Rusney Castillo if there's no chance they're ridding themselves of the money if he happens to still be the same guy he's been in the majors. This new provision in the CBA adds a significant potential downside to giving him a shot that wasn't there before. The median MLB payroll this year on opening day, at least, was $135M. Castillo would take up 8% of such a team's payroll this year! And while he had a nice season in the IL, let's not pretend it was some MVP-level season in which he was beating down the door to the majors.
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Post by graveline on Nov 13, 2017 9:17:55 GMT -5
Calling it now, if Rusney gets to start for another team next year, he'll be an all-star within 3 yrs Smart man. Never said "MLB team." I actually kinda thought not a bad idea would have been to loan him to a Mexican league team. Wouldn't mess up luxury tax like releasing him would, free up a spot on Pawtucket, and if he hits .500 or something maybe someone gets interested. I think the CBA prohibits people being optioned to the Mexican League without their consent, but for cultural reasons I suspect he would be open to it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2017 10:45:30 GMT -5
Smart man. Never said "MLB team." I actually kinda thought not a bad idea would have been to loan him to a Mexican league team. Wouldn't mess up luxury tax like releasing him would, free up a spot on Pawtucket, and if he hits .500 or something maybe someone gets interested. I think the CBA prohibits people being optioned to the Mexican League without their consent, but for cultural reasons I suspect he would be open to it. A number of issues, although credit for trying to think outside the box: - The Red Sox can release him with no CBT repercussions. It's if they add him to the 40-man roster where there are now issues. - Mexican League salaries are capped (see www.espn.com/blog/onenacion/post/_/id/7290/mexicos-summer-league-taps-a-pipeline-to-the-majors) and there's no way Castillo's salary is low enough that it's under the cap, so there's a practical barrier to this suggestion. - I don't believe that any team is going to suddenly be interested in Castillo based on what he's doing in the Mexican League. If the point is to get a team interested, they're better off having him play in the International League. - The Red Sox do not need to free up spots in the Pawtucket outfield. Our projection right now has Castillo sharing the outfield with Barfield, Tavarez, Mars, probably a bit of Lin, and perhaps Sturgeon if there's room. That even assumes nobody is taken in Rule 5 (not a certainty). And keep in mind that there are very likely to be injuries over the course of the season. But even if not, while that's not a thin outfield, with use of the DH I don't see any issues.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on May 25, 2018 1:10:54 GMT -5
Something that I think is true:
Beginning in two-plus weeks (and maybe sooner), the Sox could trade JBJ and select Rusney and not go over the $237 draft-pick-doesn't-drop-10-spots limit.
The longer they wait, the more money is left for a trade deadline acquisition. And since Rusney is off to a slow start, they wouldn't do this now anyway.
I'm not saying this is good idea, BTW. But it does lead to a related thought: if they do nothing at the deadline, they could add Rusney in mid-August without going over the $237 limit.
As previously discovered, it does mean that he counts against the limit even if he's outrighted again, so it would mean committing to him for 2019, eating up $12M of what is likely to be the $22M of Hanley.
The math: right now they have 3.5M to spend at the deadline, plus this adjustment: add all the games that Poyner, Walden, Lin, and anyone else currently on option collectively spend in MLB (not sure if that includes September), subtract the games that Velazquez, Maddox, and Marco Hernandez collectively spend on option rather than in MLB or the DL, multiply by -.002M. I think it's likely a negative number if Maddox can get optioned soon and spends most of the season in AAA, which is to say, they'll have more than $3.5M to spend, perhaps $3.6 or $3.7M.
Rusney makes $5.9M more than JBJ, so that reduces to $3.5M when 3.5 / 5.9 of the season is left, which is 16 games from now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 25, 2018 3:01:34 GMT -5
Rusney is most likely going to rot in Pawtucket until the end of 2020. He could opt out in 2020 for another opportunity, but that is *highly* unlikely given the fact that he has a base salary of 13.5 million in 2020.
The only thing that could make him want to opt out is if he's miserable in AAA and wants a chance in the majors again.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 25, 2018 9:46:32 GMT -5
As previously discovered, it does mean that he counts against the limit even if he's outrighted again, so it would mean committing to him for 2019, eating up $12M of what is likely to be the $22M of Hanley. Unless injuries (or poor play) make them desperate, this is really all that matters. For whatever it's worth, his numbers looked a lot better on May 16. Been scuffling lately.
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