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2018 Draft
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Post by ramireja on May 29, 2018 18:31:13 GMT -5
The closer we get the more I’m liking some HS bats. I really like Schnell CF from Indiana and Groshans seems like he’d be a good pick. I am too, but I worry I'm leaning in this direction because I'm not as enamored with the college bats and arms projected to be around at #26.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 18:45:58 GMT -5
Beer has some video on YouTube with a little bit of his fielding where you can get some feel for his athleticism. I'm not qualified to analyze with any degree of accuracy, but from a non-scout eyeball tests he looked like a passable fielder and not what I was expecting from a guy who some have as a 20 grade runner. Also showed off his arm once or twice.
Footage is a little old, but he certainly looks the part from my viewpoint. If his mobility is his only red flag and why he went from 27 to 64, looks like he could be a good 1st round pick and an absolute steal if he's still around when we pick in the 2nd round. Anyone with a more trained eye have any thoughts?
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Post by geostorm on May 29, 2018 19:11:33 GMT -5
looking for the boards thoughts on a couple of draft prospects: 1. local boy Vassil from BC High. Saw him pre-arm injury around the top 10-20 and then he fell out when he got shut down. He is back throwing is supposedly in mid 90's but with innings restrictions. Are the Sox reaching too much with their first round pick if they took him due to his being a high school pitcher with a recent arm injury? 2. Not sure if there has been discussion on here and I imagine it is not something that will happen but how would this board deal with Heimlich in a red sox uniform? He will get drafted by someone, and there will be outrage, but what if that someone were the sox. I imagine he would be better off outside of a major city where there will be less scrutiny, but he seems like a top few round talent, who will drop dramatically. I imagine everyones answer will be no, but is it worth it to take a flier on him in the 15-20th round if he is still there and see how much backlash you get after drafting him?
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2018 22:40:07 GMT -5
I guess my Cotuitfan handle might tell you something, but I watched Greyson for two years in Cotuit - great kid, Mike Roberts loved him - good athlete, handled centerfield well in '17 - but I don't see judge comparisons - for starters he's 6 inches shorter. Judge's slugging percentage his draft year was .655 - Greyson's this year is .490 - Judge struck out 53 times in 206 abs, abt 26% - Greyson 39 in 192, 20% - I saw both kids play, a lot - Greyson is a great player and will make a great pro - he's mature, a leader on the team, who can handle himself well, much like Judge, but I just don't see the comparison in abilities And I know the fears with Conine, but in 30 years watching closely, his is about the best bat speed I've ever seen in Cotuit - I was def more sure of Smoak, and Zimmer was just an all around great ballplayer, but Conine did not look like Jeren Kendall in terms of strikeouts (and I love Kendall and am rooting hard for him) I’m just going off the college comparo; in fairness I’ve only seen limited video leading up to each draft. Judge’s jr year was obviously fantastic but some of that was buoyed by a ludicrous BABIP. I’m looking more at the body of their work, because Judge obviously has a huge breakout year, which turned out to portend a similar MLB breakout after some middling MiLB results and an atrocious debut. On the ‘Cube site, there’s only 3” difference (6’7” vs 6’4”), and Jenista with a 10 lb weight *advantage* (if it actually is one, which could be debatable). Btw, I love that you’re contributing eyes-on info. My original response to your Conine post should in no way be seen as dismissive; I have my own reservations about that type of player/skill set, but I think direct reporting is a huge, probably underutilized (I’m planning to hit up some Seadogs and Spinners games myself) contribution to this site. I really appreciate your input, because it carries weight a stat line or dissociated talking head just doesn’t. www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=156575www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=202241
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2018 Draft
May 29, 2018 22:50:50 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2018 22:50:50 GMT -5
looking for the boards thoughts on a couple of draft prospects: 1. local boy Vassil from BC High. Saw him pre-arm injury around the top 10-20 and then he fell out when he got shut down. He is back throwing is supposedly in mid 90's but with innings restrictions. Are the Sox reaching too much with their first round pick if they took him due to his being a high school pitcher with a recent arm injury? 2. Not sure if there has been discussion on here and I imagine it is not something that will happen but how would this board deal with Heimlich in a red sox uniform? He will get drafted by someone, and there will be outrage, but what if that someone were the sox. I imagine he would be better off outside of a major city where there will be less scrutiny, but he seems like a top few round talent, who will drop dramatically. I imagine everyones answer will be no, but is it worth it to take a flier on him in the 15-20th round if he is still there and see how much backlash you get after drafting him? Vasil was a guy I was talking about early but he got some helium and looked top-10-12 at one point. With the injury, he could drop. I love the talent and that he’s a local kid. Would be a terrific get, provided the injury isn’t an ongoing concern. My only real reservation (because the injury is the only reason he *might* be available, so I accept it as a calculated risk) is that HS arms are by far the worst investment in talent in the first round. They fail to provide any value at, if I recall correctly, about twice the rate or more of any other group (HS v College, hitter v pitcher). College position players become average or better MLBers at something like 2.5x the rate of HS pitchers. So I’d be ecstatic with Vasil, but that’s probably wholly emotional, and dreaming on upside. Rational me still likes Jenista or Walker.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2018 22:55:57 GMT -5
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2018 Draft
May 29, 2018 22:56:22 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2018 22:56:22 GMT -5
As for Heimlich, I don’t think the Sox will take him and I’d hate it if they did. Frankly, I’m unsure he’ll be drafted at all in today’s social climate. Given the nature of the deal he signed, and the way it came out...idk, I just can’t wrap my head around his continued denials. It’s an ugly story and I don’t know that any team wants that skeleton rattling around. It’s sad, because who really knows beyond the two people involved, but I think it’s best for every team to say that the specter of guilt is just too unpalatable and sends a very negative message to fans...especially female fans or victims of abuse.
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2018 Draft
May 29, 2018 22:57:42 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2018 22:57:42 GMT -5
Dang. Probably good for him with the arm troubles, but I’d’ve loves to see him in the organization.
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Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2018 23:02:37 GMT -5
Good luck to the kid. Virginia's record for producing pro pitchers is not particularly good.
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2018 Draft
May 29, 2018 23:53:29 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 29, 2018 23:53:29 GMT -5
Good luck to the kid. Virginia's record for producing pro pitchers is not particularly good. Yeah, that was exactly the thought (in bold red letters) that popped in my head when you said it. I really hope he defies those odds. “Not particularly good” is being kind. Looking at the FG “Board,” ( www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all&team=all ) I’m struck by a few thoughts: 1) it’s such a top-weak (not the best way to put it, but it’s the best I can come up with; maybe top-questionable?) draft that I think it’s going to shake out oddly and we’ll see significantly more free-fallers who probably deserve much better draft positions based on talent than usual. 2) There are a tremendous number of HS arms that are “pick-ems” talent-wise in the 25-50s range. Maybe even above that. I think there could be a lot of underslot deals in this draft, with teams either liking those young arms and aiming for college positional guys with some questions later on, or vice versa. Like, I’d love to see the Sox get Turang (I love me those SSs), or one of the solid college bets among Kyler Murray, Jenista, or Gilbert at 26...and then maybe get lucky and snag somebody like Torres Jr (I actually wouldn’t mind him as an underslot 1, either, because he’s so young), Hankins, or Kloffenstein (also very young) in rd 2. Or, they could do the reverse and take one of those young arms underslot, and hope for a guy like Walker or Eierman to fall. 3) I’d be ecstatic if they could finagle a trade for a comp round pick, but I’m sure it won’t happen. This just seems like the perfect draft to get a CB pick, even in the 70 range. It could easily net a top-35 talent. 4) There are some quality up-the-middle HS guys peppered in there too. Osiris Johnson comes to mind, right around where they’ll pick in rd 2. But there are also a whole passel o’ dreamable collegiate players like Hjelle (dude’s 6’11” with gas), Pilkington, or the aforementioned Walker and Conine. 5) Ideally, I’d like to see the Sox get a less risky 1 like Jenista or Murray, and roll the dice in 2. I’m pretty certain some big talent is going to slide all the way to 3 as the board upheaval begins early. 6) Please, please trade for a comp balance pick. So many relief arms, not enough roster spots...get creative, Dave.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 30, 2018 10:14:12 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2018 10:45:22 GMT -5
Interesting, although if they mean this in terms of total career WAR, I'm sure Clemens (2nd all-time in WAR in the draft era) and Boggs (looks like he's top 15 or so) alone put them ahead of many teams.
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Post by ramireja on May 30, 2018 11:49:10 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on May 30, 2018 16:16:13 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline with a ranking of the best tools in the draft: Best hitter: Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State Best power: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix) Fastest runner: Max Marusak, OF, Amarillo (Texas) HS Strongest arm: Blaze Alexander, SS, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)Best defender: Cadyn Grenier, SS, Oregon State Best fastball: Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Cumming, Ga.) Best curveball: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (Melbourne, Fla.) Best slider: Griffin Roberts, RHP, Wake Forest Best changeup: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn Best control: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn Blaze Alexander is a guy who interests me as a potential 2nd round pick. He apparently had a 99 mph throw which broke PG event infield record.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2018 16:31:56 GMT -5
Who does the 90s/2000s hip-hop fan in me want the Red Sox to pick? I don't ask for much. Just Blaze.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 30, 2018 16:39:35 GMT -5
Speaking of interesting 2nd round targets, HS RHP Slade Cecconi was supposed to be a top 15 pick (or at least in 1st round consideration) but he's been dealing with minor injuries this entire spring and has barely pitched. He's committed Miami and will be a draft-eligible sophomore so he will probably be a tough sign.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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2018 Draft
May 30, 2018 21:32:54 GMT -5
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Post by radiohix on May 30, 2018 21:32:54 GMT -5
Speaking of interesting 2nd round targets, HS RHP Slade Cecconi was supposed to be a top 15 pick (or at least in 1st round consideration) but he's been dealing with minor injuries this entire spring and has barely pitched. He's committed Miami and will be a draft-eligible sophomore so he will probably be a tough sign. Yes, him or Turang are my dream picks coming into the season. Make it happen Dave!
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2018 Draft
May 30, 2018 22:03:21 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2018 22:03:21 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline with a ranking of the best tools in the draft: Best hitter: Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State Best power: Nolan Gorman, 3B, O'Connor HS (Phoenix) Fastest runner: Max Marusak, OF, Amarillo (Texas) HS Strongest arm: Blaze Alexander, SS, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)Best defender: Cadyn Grenier, SS, Oregon State Best fastball: Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS (Cumming, Ga.) Best curveball: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS (Melbourne, Fla.) Best slider: Griffin Roberts, RHP, Wake Forest Best changeup: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn Best control: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn Blaze Alexander is a guy who interests me as a potential 2nd round pick. He apparently had a 99 mph throw which broke PG event infield record. He’s pretty far down the fg “Board,” but I’ve heard of him higher. I wasn’t aware of the arm strength though, at least not to that extent. Idk about the rest of his offensive game to have an informed opinion, but he’s the kind of player I wish a team would Casey Kelly (Ohtani/McKay)...maybe give a two-way shot to. I know there are a ton of reasons not to, but after Ohtani’s success, I wonder if treats will maybe do the Kelly thing and let a guy try both to start and see where his development takes him. There are other guys I think I’d like to see them target in rd 2, but I have no idea if they’ll be there. If they snapped him up thinking he wouldn’t fall to 3, I’d be happy with that. I’m unreasonably enamored of SS especially and CF, and 99 in the infield sounds like Hicks/Chapman arm strength. Very interesting thought.
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Post by telson13 on May 30, 2018 22:05:55 GMT -5
Who does the 90s/2000s hip-hop fan in me want the Red Sox to pick? I don't ask for much. Just Blaze. As close as you can get to an 80+ name, short of Motorboat Jones.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 31, 2018 6:56:48 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 31, 2018 7:05:22 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 31, 2018 7:05:56 GMT -5
As for Heimlich, I don’t think the Sox will take him and I’d hate it if they did. Frankly, I’m unsure he’ll be drafted at all in today’s social climate. Given the nature of the deal he signed, and the way it came out...idk, I just can’t wrap my head around his continued denials. It’s an ugly story and I don’t know that any team wants that skeleton rattling around. It’s sad, because who really knows beyond the two people involved, but I think it’s best for every team to say that the specter of guilt is just too unpalatable and sends a very negative message to fans...especially female fans or victims of abuse. Toronto loved Doug Gilmour. He had a nasty situation in St. Louis before heading back to Canada . Or, a team With no fan base like TB.
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Post by jdb on May 31, 2018 7:25:29 GMT -5
One thing regarding the Miami commit is their head coach is retiring. I think they may be hiring from within but not positive.
Also would Beer be an under slot candidate if you could essentially rule out the NL?
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Post by 1toolplayer on May 31, 2018 11:17:44 GMT -5
I would really like Gilbert, (wouldn't mind Beer either for that matter,) but an interesting thing I read in Mayo's mock was that he heard the Phillies were in on Gilbert at 3. I know his stuff has come back towards the end of this year, but that was stunning none-the-less. Ultimately, I do not see him that high, but would be really surprised to see him get past 20.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 31, 2018 13:45:50 GMT -5
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