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4/17-4/19 Red Sox @ Angels Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 18, 2018 7:19:38 GMT -5
They were 19-2 until we beat them twice in a row, whereupon they then went on a 16-1 run. That team was crazy good. About every three of four years I look at the Sox team and they look so good on paper that I start thinking about the '84 Tigers. The last time was 2011, and I'm glad I kept my mouth shut, as I always have in the past. This was one of those years. Meanwhile, the two guys who had to sit out because of injuries that looked like they might be problematical have gone 5/8, 2B, 4 HR, 2 BB (2.950 OPS) in their returns to action, after missing two combined games over three days. And Xander is apparently feeling really good. Double meanwhile, although we're 14-2 folks shouldn't get too giddy, because our Pythagorean is just 13-3. Our run differential is now +51, and the Angels are next-best at +39. 538 has this team ranking thing called elo that is pretty interesting. They now project the Red Sox to win 101 games with an 87% chance of making the playoffs and 65% chance to win the division. They have the entire history of baseball in there. I also really like the game by game predictions which adjust the team rating by the starting pitching quality and also adjust for travel/rest/homefield advantage. Back in 2000, games pitched by Pedro gave them an extra 15% chance to win which is pretty insane. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/complete-history-of-mlb/#BOSfivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-mlb-predictions-work/
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 18, 2018 7:26:06 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2018 8:27:56 GMT -5
Thank you. Those 84 Tigers were kind of, for lack of a better description, one of those "last chance" type of teams that put it all together before they either aged or were broken up. Teams that were toward the end of their long run of success who grabbed the championship before it was too late. I think the 83 Orioles were definitely that type of team and so were the 85 Royals. The Blue Jays at the end of their run grabbed a couple of championships. In a way the 04 Sox were a little bit like that with the threat of multiple key free agents leaving hanging over their heads. 1984 was kind of a good year for the Sox. They were left for dead when Detroit went 35-5, but the Sox strengthened their lineup and the young pitchers started to blossom and I think that season kind of lead into 1986 after taking a backward step in 85.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2018 8:39:43 GMT -5
Something I find heartening about this team right now is that they are really putting things in the bank.
What I mean by that is they're not selling out to win these games. They're not burning the bullpen out. They're not overextending their starting pitchers and they're not burning out their regulars. The wins are in the bank. They look like they're sprinting, but they're not really not - they're pacing themselves for the long season.
One thing that is kind of weird and working out for this team is the bullpen.
I'll be honest. A key game where the Sox are up 3-2 or tied 5-5 and it's the 8th inning on the road - right now I don't really trust Carson Smith, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, or Matt Barnes to keep the game where it is. I just don't.
I know the hope is that Smith reverts to what he was in Seattle and Thornburg comes back healthy like he was with Milwaukee. And they hope as a bonus at least one of Kelly or Barnes finds consistency - because they are very inconsistent with their control.
It bit them in the 1st game, but they've held things together since then.
But despite the lack of a clearcut 8th inning guy, which they might have to acquire, they have something unique in their pen.
They basically have a plethora of long relievers/swingmen.
Any given game they can piggyback Brian Johnson on top of the starter, or Velazquez, or even Marcus Walden. They have Steven Wright on the DL who might come back and do the same thing.
This means Alex Cora doesn't have to employ 3 guys to get thru 3 innings to get to Kimbrel if the starter doesn't go long. This is such a huge benefit, something I really didn't anticipate.
And the biggest benefit is that because they have this kind of personnel, Chris Sale only has to go 5 or 6. Same with Price.
They can even hold back Porcello a bit if they need to.
This means that come Sept and Oct, these guys should be pretty fresh compared to where they've been in the past when they're up around 200 some odd innings and they're out of gas come playoff time.
So they're winning without having to overextend their starters - thanks to Johnson/Velazquez/Walden.
Usually you don't get 3 guys in the pen like that but it's working very well - scoring a ton or runs every night helps too, of course, which allows for these 3 inning saves.
Meanwhile Cora continues to rest the regulars and keep the bench constantly engaged.
This is a great way to win, not only short-term, but long-term.
Meanwhile it's fun to see the Sox this hot.
I remember the Sox going 19-1 upon Joe Morgan's hiring/McNamara's firing, so Cora could wind up going 18-2 in his first 20 and still not have a hotter start than Walpole Joe.
I remember the Sox going 20-2 in Aug/Sep 2004 when they made it clear they were going to be a force to be reckoned with.
I remember other hot stretches where the Sox went 31-8 before collapsing in 1991, 40-17 to start the 2002 season, but would only play .500 ball pretty much the rest of the way. I recall another 17-2 stretch at some point when I was a kid, but I actually can't remember when - my brain says 1985 during a .500 season, but I'm not sure.
This is so much fun to watch. I hope they're playing this well in October! If they do, look forward to the parade.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2018 8:47:00 GMT -5
Thank you. Those 84 Tigers were kind of, for lack of a better description, one of those "last chance" type of teams that put it all together before they either aged or were broken up. Teams that were toward the end of their long run of success who grabbed the championship before it was too late. I think the 83 Orioles were definitely that type of team and so were the 85 Royals. The Blue Jays at the end of their run grabbed a couple of championships. In a way the 04 Sox were a little bit like that with the threat of multiple key free agents leaving hanging over their heads. 1984 was kind of a good year for the Sox. They were left for dead when Detroit went 35-5, but the Sox strengthened their lineup and the young pitchers started to blossom and I think that season kind of lead into 1986 after taking a backward step in 85. I disagree with that pretty strongly. They slipped in 1985, but were very good again in '86, arguably the best team in baseball in '87, and very good in '88 and '89 before cratering. Their core was Dan Petry (25), Alan Trammell (26 years old), Lou Whitaker (27), Kirk Gibson (27), Lance Parrish (28), Chet Lemon (29), and Jack Morris (29), plus an absurd year out of the bullpen from Willie Hernandez. That whole group was together for years. Parrish went to the Phillies in 1987, and Gibson to the Dodgers in 1988, but that 1984 team was no last-shot-at-glory thing.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2018 9:02:38 GMT -5
I think Carson Smith will be fine with work. While he's got his velocity back, the command isn't there yet. That's not an atypical after-effect for someone returning from TJ. Hopefully that comes along also. He can be very effective setting guys up and knocking them down, but that requires knowing where the ball is going.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2018 9:15:30 GMT -5
Thank you. Those 84 Tigers were kind of, for lack of a better description, one of those "last chance" type of teams that put it all together before they either aged or were broken up. Teams that were toward the end of their long run of success who grabbed the championship before it was too late. I think the 83 Orioles were definitely that type of team and so were the 85 Royals. The Blue Jays at the end of their run grabbed a couple of championships. In a way the 04 Sox were a little bit like that with the threat of multiple key free agents leaving hanging over their heads. 1984 was kind of a good year for the Sox. They were left for dead when Detroit went 35-5, but the Sox strengthened their lineup and the young pitchers started to blossom and I think that season kind of lead into 1986 after taking a backward step in 85. I disagree with that pretty strongly. They slipped in 1985, but were very good again in '86, arguably the best team in baseball in '87, and very good in '88 and '89 before cratering. Their core was Dan Petry (25), Alan Trammell (26 years old), Lou Whitaker (27), Kirk Gibson (27), Lance Parrish (28), Chet Lemon (29), and Jack Morris (29), plus an absurd year out of the bullpen from Willie Hernandez. That whole group was together for years. Parrish went to the Phillies in 1987, and Gibson to the Dodgers in 1988, but that 1984 team was no last-shot-at-glory thing. Yeah, you're right. The Tigers weren't as old as I had thought them to be at the time. They had just been together for a long time by then. I guess my analogy works better with the 82 Brewers, 83 Orioles or 85 Royals or even the 79 Pirates. Had the Tigers won it all in 87, then I think you might have agreed with my original statement. The Tigers team was so-so/decent in 85 and 86 and stole the division in 87 from Toronto at the end (they won because they got 9-0 Doyle Alexander in a deal but dealt some young kid named John Smoltz for him) and had a strong first half in 88 before they were overtaken by Morgan Magic. Then they faded badly until Dombrowski helped revive them. I think the Tigers had started to put that team together around 1978 or 1979 and they matured and gelled in 1984, not unlike their previous championship in 1968, and like that team they aged until they had one last gasp, which was 1987 for Sparky's Tigers and 1972 for Al Kaline's Tigers. Both of those teams got bounced in the playoffs quickly and went south in a hurry after that.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Apr 18, 2018 9:18:43 GMT -5
Cafardo should stop writing about baseball or any sport as a matter of fact.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 18, 2018 10:28:52 GMT -5
Some mod needs to create a read only “over-reaction” thread and take the best fanboy reaction posts and drop them there for both winning and losing streaks. At some point in May or June this team is going to go into a funk and the sky is falling posts will be better than the talk about 100 wins, MVPs and Cy Young’s after 16 games. Is talk about 100 wins over-reacting? We're a tenth of the way through the season and they're banking wins. If they play at a 96-win full season pace for the rest of the year they get to 100. I think they have a pretty good shot at doing that. Heck, fangraphs already projects them for 99 wins.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 18, 2018 10:49:11 GMT -5
Some mod needs to create a read only “over-reaction” thread and take the best fanboy reaction posts and drop them there for both winning and losing streaks. At some point in May or June this team is going to go into a funk and the sky is falling posts will be better than the talk about 100 wins, MVPs and Cy Young’s after 16 games. You could simply write the truth and it would seem to be over-reaction because of how good they've been. They're 14-2 with a team wRC+ of 127 and leading the majors in many categories. To be negative or a "realist" at this point is just ignoring how good they've been. There is way more negative over-reaction. We don't need more. You like sky is falling posts? That started game 1.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2018 11:06:42 GMT -5
Some mod needs to create a read only “over-reaction” thread and take the best fanboy reaction posts and drop them there for both winning and losing streaks. At some point in May or June this team is going to go into a funk and the sky is falling posts will be better than the talk about 100 wins, MVPs and Cy Young’s after 16 games. Fans get emotional after tough wins/losses, win streaks/losing streaks, etc. I certainly do at times. Before the season began my feeling about this team was that on paper it's as stacked as any I've seen since I've been watching and I've been watching for almost 40 years. That's saying a lot. On the simplest level, the 2016 team felt like it was missing that solid 3rd pitcher to go with Price and Porcello, but had the offense. The 2017 team felt like it had gotten what it needed with Sale (and of course Price gets hurt and Porcello regressed markedly), but they didn't replace Ortiz, and that had an impact. Going into this season, the Sox got the hitter they needed to replace Ortiz, have their pitching intact, replaced a manager who really did need replacing (as a guy on the fence with Farrell, I think it's obvious that Cora has had a positive impact on this team and that they needed to make the change - DD made the right call). Cora was spot on with his diagnosis about the offense being too passive, letting too many hittable pitches go by. The players made it clear they were playing tight last season. The whole vibe felt different in spring training. I worried about the pen prior to the season and my worst fears felt realized on Opening Day. Here we are two weeks later and my feelings about the pen haven't really changed - or at least having that reliable guy - I still think it's ultimately Smith, but I'm not convinced yet - and I still think an acquisition happens. But the offense is for real. Oh, it will cool down, but they should score well over 800 runs. And all the signals we needed to see are there. Price looks healthy and effective. Sale is effective even dialing it back. Porcello looks like a guy who has straightened things out, although I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as 2016 Porcello but the evidence is mounting that he won't be as bad as 2017 Porcello. There's a lot of good things and I don't think it's an overreaction to think that this team could win 100 games or that Mookie Betts could have an MVP season in him. But yes, the team will slump, and so will Betts, and some of us (myself including) will fret about it. But it doesn't change my overall feeling about the team prior to the season - they'll hit, they can pitch, they have depth which they've lack in recent years, they have a manager who is a positive for the team, and their bullpen bridge to Kimbrel needs resolution at some point or it will give games away at some point in the season. Really the only thing that will derail this team from winning 95 games is an overabundance of injuries to key players or a really bad bullpen performance. But otherwise this team should win 95 and compete with the Yankees for 1st with a realistic possibility of winning the 100 games that I've never seen them win in a season before. And like I said earlier I like how they're winning - they're doing it while keeping their entire roster fresh. That is an important thing. As opposed to Don Zimmer in 1978 pushing the pedal to the medal and wearing down his team until they were no longer a juggernaut.
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Post by patford on Apr 18, 2018 11:39:55 GMT -5
The team is playing like a 1000 pound weight has been lifted off it's back. I credit Cora for this. There was always an air of tension around Farrell.
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Apr 18, 2018 12:37:51 GMT -5
I hate to be the Debbie Downer here, but it IS in my DNA. Just remember that a team is never as good as it looks when it is going good, and never as bad as it looks when it is going bad. Dude, you’re the Swiss Army knife of debbie downers! —Jonny Gomes
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 18, 2018 13:22:44 GMT -5
Some mod needs to create a read only “over-reaction” thread and take the best fanboy reaction posts and drop them there for both winning and losing streaks. At some point in May or June this team is going to go into a funk and the sky is falling posts will be better than the talk about 100 wins, MVPs and Cy Young’s after 16 games. Yes the Sox will have their bad streaks that is baseball. The league leading team in the other 3 major sports can have winning percentages above 75% but it just doesn't happen in baseball. When was the last time a MLB team had 125 wins? It doesn't happen even though in baseball teams can have the greatest disparity in payroll. But they sure look unbeatable right now. 13 out of 16 games the pitching has been lights out.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 18, 2018 13:34:06 GMT -5
Something I find heartening about this team right now is that they are really putting things in the bank. What I mean by that is they're not selling out to win these games. They're not burning the bullpen out. They're not overextending their starting pitchers and they're not burning out their regulars. The wins are in the bank. They look like they're sprinting, but they're not really not - they're pacing themselves for the long season. One thing that is kind of weird and working out for this team is the bullpen. I'll be honest. A key game where the Sox are up 3-2 or tied 5-5 and it's the 8th inning on the road - right now I don't really trust Carson Smith, Joe Kelly, Heath Hembree, or Matt Barnes to keep the game where it is. I just don't. I know the hope is that Smith reverts to what he was in Seattle and Thornburg comes back healthy like he was with Milwaukee. And they hope as a bonus at least one of Kelly or Barnes finds consistency - because they are very inconsistent with their control. It bit them in the 1st game, but they've held things together since then. But despite the lack of a clearcut 8th inning guy, which they might have to acquire, they have something unique in their pen. They basically have a plethora of long relievers/swingmen. Any given game they can piggyback Brian Johnson on top of the starter, or Velazquez, or even Marcus Walden. They have Steven Wright on the DL who might come back and do the same thing. This means Alex Cora doesn't have to employ 3 guys to get thru 3 innings to get to Kimbrel if the starter doesn't go long. This is such a huge benefit, something I really didn't anticipate. And the biggest benefit is that because they have this kind of personnel, Chris Sale only has to go 5 or 6. Same with Price. They can even hold back Porcello a bit if they need to. This means that come Sept and Oct, these guys should be pretty fresh compared to where they've been in the past when they're up around 200 some odd innings and they're out of gas come playoff time. So they're winning without having to overextend their starters - thanks to Johnson/Velazquez/Walden. Usually you don't get 3 guys in the pen like that but it's working very well - scoring a ton or runs every night helps too, of course, which allows for these 3 inning saves. Meanwhile Cora continues to rest the regulars and keep the bench constantly engaged. This is a great way to win, not only short-term, but long-term. Meanwhile it's fun to see the Sox this hot. I remember the Sox going 19-1 upon Joe Morgan's hiring/McNamara's firing, so Cora could wind up going 18-2 in his first 20 and still not have a hotter start than Walpole Joe. I remember the Sox going 20-2 in Aug/Sep 2004 when they made it clear they were going to be a force to be reckoned with. I remember other hot stretches where the Sox went 31-8 before collapsing in 1991, 40-17 to start the 2002 season, but would only play .500 ball pretty much the rest of the way. I recall another 17-2 stretch at some point when I was a kid, but I actually can't remember when - my brain says 1985 during a .500 season, but I'm not sure. This is so much fun to watch. I hope they're playing this well in October! If they do, look forward to the parade. I brought up the piggy back thought a few times in the offseason as I did think it was something they had the horses to do. Going through the line up twice then going to another pitcher who is good enough to be starting for most teams. If this keeps up even with some movement back to the norm it could be a magical year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 18, 2018 13:38:30 GMT -5
With the Sox you have to call a spade a spade. When they play like crap you have to say they're playing like crap. On the flipside, when they're playing the way they're playing now they deserve nothing but verbal bouquets. They've been a joy.
How far you can extrapolate this is admittedly a different question, but I think there are a lot of good vibes all around. We're diehards and I think after awhile you can get instincts or a gut feeling about a team.
I've watched a lot of good Red Sox teams that I didn't think really had what it took. I'm not saying they WILL win the World Series, but this team has a real shot at it provided good health. They're going to struggle - the law of averages will kick in a bit. Spring training doesn't count, but I just read they were 14-1 to end spring training and now they carry it over to the season at 14-2.
So they've had winning results in 28 of their last 31 games. That's better than .900 baseball which is utterly ridiculous.
They're due for regression and I'm sure I'll be agitated when a lead slip aways and becomes a loss or they lose a one run game where they had a chance but couldn't get the sac fly they needed or they - gulp - lose to the MFYs!!!
But if I step back and am rational and level-headed about the team, there's really a lot of good things going on here. This team is well built, kind of how Theo had them situated late in 2004 where the bench was fully functional, the starters were solid, the pen did the job, the defense made the plays and weren't beating themselves, and the lineup was relentless. Plus that team was never out of a game/series. When this team trails in the 9th it feels like they have a shot.
I'm really excited about this season.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2018 13:39:41 GMT -5
I'm all for irrational exuberance, so I'm totally on board with 142-20.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 18, 2018 13:50:19 GMT -5
Cafardo should stop writing about baseball or any sport as a matter of fact. Link didn't pop up for me at first, but at least this isn't the DUMBEST thing he's written in his career. Mike Trout is actually great, so there is that.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,016
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2018 14:06:35 GMT -5
Two unrelated thoughts before I go back to helping my Mom ...
1) We focus relentlessly on lineup section and in-game tactics, but a manager's most important job is to work with his staff to help the players be as good as they can be. To realize their upside. Does anyone think it's a coincidence that Mookie, Xander, Hanley, Porcello, and (in a smaller sample) E-Rod are all not only performing above expectations, but doing so in a way that seems real and sustainable? The standard formula for winning a pennant / WS is for the majority of your players to have better-than-expected seasons. But increasingly, that bit of "luck" is at least the residue of design--if not in fact its direct result. This sort of outcome is exactly what I dreamed of when they hired Cora.
2) I've got a new relief metric that I really like, and it puts a real nice lens on the bullpen. It tells me that Joe Kelly is a very good 7th inning guy for a contender, and I think he has no 8th inning upside. Matt Barnes is a good or very good 7th inning guy for a contender, and he has small 8th-inning upside only because he's only been throwing with his new mechanics since late last June, and there's a chance his command will improve. Heath Hembree has taken a big step forward and is now a very good or even excellent 7th inning guy for a contender, and he has no 8th inning upside because he has never limited hard contact and his xFIP isn't going any lower.
Scott Thornburg had an 8th inning season but there may have been some luck involved and, given his injury, if he comes back I think he's ... a good or very good 7th inning guy for a contender.
Brian Johnson has had 4 MLB relief appearances and his numbers translate to ... do I have to say it again?
Now, Carson Smith was a legit 8th inning guy, but he's been pretty bad since coming back. At least he has a shot at it, though.
The thing is, if you have four or five 7th-inning guys to choose from on a given day, there's a good chance that one of them matches up extra well against the guys due up in the 8th. So if Smith doesn't come all the way back, we're all going to want DDo to trade for a true 8th inning stud ... but that might not be the best idea. The good thing is that by July 31 we should know whether matchup strategy can make the sum of all of these 7th inning guys greater than their parts.
Since everything else about the team seems off-the-charts swell, this is a pretty gratifying "one big weakness" to have.
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Post by jchang on Apr 18, 2018 14:26:16 GMT -5
I'm all for irrational exuberance, so I'm totally on board with 142-20. such a pessimist, if 160-2 is optimistic, I would back down to 159-3 per Eric's point, I am thinking we are not going to get an 8th inning RP for two 7th RP's, but perhaps adding Wright could do the trick. if not, the next higher value pieces in trade would be Johnson and Velazquez, but I am thinking each one of those two are more valuable than an 8th inning RP.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 18, 2018 15:48:55 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 18, 2018 15:52:32 GMT -5
I'm all for irrational exuberance, so I'm totally on board with 142-20. I want to clinch the division by June.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 18, 2018 16:26:26 GMT -5
I want the Sox to out score their opponents by 500 runs!!
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2018 16:39:14 GMT -5
Bradford: "To make such a proclamation would have been inconceivable after watching Devers both last season and throughout most of spring training." Actually, I talked all winter about Devers having the tools to become a guy just below the GG winners. I think I had him at more than +10 defense if you gave him an average error rate. He makes very tough plays look relatively easy, so it's easy to underestimate him. He's currently at about +25 R/150 DRS. UZR has him at +10 and Total Zone about +20. Meanwhile, Mookie is on a pace for 14.0 bWAR. Xander was on a pace for just 9.0 when he got hurt.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 18, 2018 16:50:53 GMT -5
Rob Bradford is the guy who said carrying Marrero was necessary because of Devers' defense.
I think that's the last time I'll actually listen to his perspective on anything. I'll read his articles for quotes and stuff, but will throw his opinion out the window from now on too.
There is like maybe 3 or 4 writers left in Boston with common sense nowadays.
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