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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by southernredsoxality on Sept 10, 2020 17:40:40 GMT -5
If Pete Alonso played gold glove defense, he would be Dalbec’s ceiling.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 10, 2020 18:03:03 GMT -5
nice bump. Tempering enthusiasm as best as possible. Chavis lit it up early too. I will leave it to guys who look at this stuff to determine the differences in the players, but you have to love the possibilities here. I mean as folks that have been following him since he was drafted, we know better than anyone that Dalbec has some scorching, hot streaks and some frigid, cold streaks as well. It's great to see that he's even capable of a homer binge against major league caliber pitching, but I think it's very smart to temper enthusiasm. You mentioned Chavis and also Middlebrooks also comes to mind as someone people once penciled in as a multiyear regular upon initial success.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 10, 2020 19:47:17 GMT -5
If he can just bat .250 I could care less about his k numbers. His power is insane half the time it is not even good contact and that thing is carrying.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,770
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Post by mobaz on Sept 10, 2020 20:38:25 GMT -5
If he can just bat .250 I could care less about his k numbers. His power is insane half the time it is not even good contact and that thing is carrying. The way the opposite field ones get out in a hurry is really encouraging.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2020 1:07:02 GMT -5
Dalbec is the first in MLB history to have a 5-game streak in his first 10 MLB games.
Three years ago Rhys Hoskins homered in 5 straight games as a rookie, and I'm sure that others have done it before him, as none of the stories about him mention it as a unique feat. But no rookie has ever homered in 6 straight, I'm pretty sure. Only 36 guys have done that in MLB history.
Dalbec is the 150th player in MLB history to homer in 5 straight games. 24% of those homered in a 6th straight game, and 19% of those (5) homered in a 7th straight game. Remarkably, 3 of those 7 added another game (Dale Long, Don Mattingly, Ken Griffey, Jr., of course) And now I'm going to do something cool: spin his high K rate into a positive! Because the actual measure of power (that I always use) is HR / Contact. Dalbec hit 5 HR while making contact 10 times. He's the 11th player in MLB history to manage a .500(+) HR/C while homering in five straight games, and he's the youngest guy ever to do so. Name Strk Start 5HRC HR Age Note Barry Bonds 5/17/2001 .700 8 31 9 in 6 gms at .529 Dar. Strawberry 7/28/1998 .625 5 36 Ted Williams 7/12/1957 .545 6 38 Frank Howard 5/12/1968 .500 8 31 10 in 6 gms at .500 Babe Ruth 6/10/1921 .500 7 26 Aaron Judge 7/29/2020 .500 6 28 Graig Nettles 8/11/1984 .500 6 39 7 in 6 games at .500 Bobby Dalbec 9/5/2020 .500 5 25 Eugenio Suarez 7/23/2018 .500 5 26 Harm. Killebrew 6/26/1964 .500 5 28 Ken Griffey Jr. 7/8/2003 .500 5 33
I'll have details tomorrow, but don't worry that Suarez is on this list. Dalbec has the 3 best-hit homers between them, and either the best 4 or 4 of the best 5.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 11, 2020 6:32:03 GMT -5
Dalbec is the first in MLB history to have a 5-game streak in his first 10 MLB games.
Three years ago Rhys Hoskins homered in 5 straight games as a rookie, and I'm sure that others have done it before him, as none of the stories about him mention it as a unique feat. But no rookie has ever homered in 6 straight, I'm pretty sure. Only 36 guys have done that in MLB history.
Dalbec is the 150th player in MLB history to homer in 5 straight games. 24% of those homered in a 6th straight game, and 19% of those (5) homered in a 7th straight game. Remarkably, 3 of those 7 added another game (Dale Long, Don Mattingly, Ken Griffey, Jr., of course) And now I'm going to do something cool: spin his high K rate into a positive! Because the actual measure of power (that I always use) is HR / Contact. Dalbec hit 5 HR while making contact 10 times. He's the 11th player in MLB history to manage a .500(+) HR/C while homering in five straight games, and he's the youngest guy ever to do so. Name Strk Start 5HRC HR Age Note Barry Bonds 5/17/2001 .700 8 31 9 in 6 gms at .529 Dar. Strawberry 7/28/1998 .625 5 36 Ted Williams 7/12/1957 .545 6 38 Frank Howard 5/12/1968 .500 8 31 10 in 6 gms at .500 Babe Ruth 6/10/1921 .500 7 26 Aaron Judge 7/29/2020 .500 6 28 Graig Nettles 8/11/1984 .500 6 39 7 in 6 games at .500 Bobby Dalbec 9/5/2020 .500 5 25 Eugenio Suarez 7/23/2018 .500 5 26 Harm. Killebrew 6/26/1964 .500 5 28 Ken Griffey Jr. 7/8/2003 .500 5 33
I'll have details tomorrow, but don't worry that Suarez is on this list. Dalbec has the 3 best-hit homers between them, and either the best 4 or 4 of the best 5.
You found your 'calling'....
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 11, 2020 7:42:27 GMT -5
Have to wait out this Bobby Dalbec roller coaster ride. He's making it so easy to want to pencil his name in for the next six years (which is what a lot of us hoped to do with Chavis and Middlebrooks, right?)
He's got me saying (right now) - so can Casas play LF?! Dalbec at 1b and Casas in LF for 2022 because JDM is still DHing?
Maybe JD is gone by then and so you have Casas, Dalbec, and Devers. Maybe Casas at 1b, Dalbec at 3b, and Raffy DHing?
Who knows? The mind is already pondering it.
Have to wait for the league adjustment to him and see if he remains the true three outcome hitter who can maintain a .240 BA with a ton of walks and a ridiculous amount of HRs.
I had always thought of him as trade bait - and maybe he is, but the way he looks (right now) I wouldn't want to deal him - I'd want to bat him 4th, 5th, or 6th and consider him a core member.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 11, 2020 8:11:30 GMT -5
With only 15 games left, Bobby could cool off a little and still have a 1.000 OPS.
This year, of all years, a minimum wage player with 6 years control and no super two, should fetch significantly more than usual.
To me, if we trade him, it comes down to this. He's either the ultimate sell high candidate or else he has a career that makes us regret a trade. Seems like the odds favor the former.
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Post by unitspin on Sept 11, 2020 9:21:57 GMT -5
With only 15 games left, Bobby could cool off a little and still have a 1.000 OPS. This year, of all years, a minimum wage player with 6 years control and no super two, should fetch significantly more than usual. To me, if we trade him, it comes down to this. He's either the ultimate sell high candidate or else he has a career that makes us regret a trade. Seems like the odds favor the former. I say keep him id like to see the influx of young cheap talent the next two years. These players will allow bloom to sign some solid pitching to add to an already good lineup. Guess our prospect pool is not as bad as everyone has been saying. Realistically, they could add 4-5 young controllable players in the next two years.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 11, 2020 9:31:11 GMT -5
With only 15 games left, Bobby could cool off a little and still have a 1.000 OPS. This year, of all years, a minimum wage player with 6 years control and no super two, should fetch significantly more than usual. To me, if we trade him, it comes down to this. He's either the ultimate sell high candidate or else he has a career that makes us regret a trade. Seems like the odds favor the former. Yea, he could become Aaron Judge by the strikeout comparison too if we look back. Do you sell high on him or is he a strong contender for the future. Seems like the Sox should keep this gamble to me. If the Yanks can financially afford back then to wait and see, the Sox should be able to take the financial and team health risk now too.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 412
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Post by badfishnbc on Sept 11, 2020 9:59:30 GMT -5
Not sure how this thread has been dormant for a year and a half. Seriously. I bumped back a page out of habit to see what I was missing in the conversation and was befuddled by what I was reading - they were reports from 2018. How does a guy like this slip under our collective radar? When did huge power potential get boring?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2020 11:09:11 GMT -5
Have to wait out this Bobby Dalbec roller coaster ride. He's making it so easy to want to pencil his name in for the next six years (which is what a lot of us hoped to do with Chavis and Middlebrooks, right?) He's got me saying (right now) - so can Casas play LF?! Dalbec at 1b and Casas in LF for 2022 because JDM is still DHing? Maybe JD is gone by then and so you have Casas, Dalbec, and Devers. Maybe Casas at 1b, Dalbec at 3b, and Raffy DHing? Who knows? The mind is already pondering it. Have to wait for the league adjustment to him and see if he remains the true three outcome hitter who can maintain a .240 BA with a ton of walks and a ridiculous amount of HRs. I had always thought of him as trade bait - and maybe he is, but the way he looks (right now) I wouldn't want to deal him - I'd want to bat him 4th, 5th, or 6th and consider him a core member. With only 15 games left, Bobby could cool off a little and still have a 1.000 OPS. This year, of all years, a minimum wage player with 6 years control and no super two, should fetch significantly more than usual. To me, if we trade him, it comes down to this. He's either the ultimate sell high candidate or else he has a career that makes us regret a trade. Seems like the odds favor the former. He's much more valuable at 3B, where his bat is relatively much better and his 70 arm is relevant on every play instead of once a month.
The best-case scenario, I think, is that he plays 1B for a year, proves he's for real, is made expendable by Devers and Casas, and is the centerpiece for a major trade like Moncada was.
BTW, of the 10 homers he and Eugenio Suarez hit in their streaks, Dalbec indeed has the top 4. Look at the expected SlgA, which is based on all possible directions and ballparks:
3.991 D 3.886 D 3.856 D 3.742 D 3.528 S 3.430 S 2.960 S 2.723 S
2.539 D
1.876 S
Dalbec had one none-universal homer, the one that sneaked into the bullpen in Fenway, but that's a homer 56% of the time regardless of which direction it goes and what ballpark he's in, a double 15% of the time, and an out 29%. His cheapest homer of the other four (second game of the DH) is 93% homer, 2% double, and 5% out. Whereas 2 of Suarez's homers were below 50%.
One of those 11 guys was bound to be a fluke. The only surprise is that we have the Statcast data to prove it ... whereas we'll never know for certain how many of Dale Long's 8 straight were cheapos.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 11, 2020 13:21:22 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 11, 2020 14:12:31 GMT -5
That K rate is going to catch up with him. But for now, let's hope he crushes it the ROS so the Sox can package him and Chavis for a good arm.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 11, 2020 15:25:32 GMT -5
From the game notes:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 11, 2020 17:12:34 GMT -5
Well, he did seem to fit the type and he's living up to that hype - at least for now. That isn't just robust, it's stratospheric. He'll be coming back down. Let's see where he lands.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 11, 2020 17:25:19 GMT -5
That K rate is going to catch up with him. But for now, let's hope he crushes it the ROS so the Sox can package him and Chavis for a good arm. They haven't invited me to their team meetings yet, but I'll bet the idea of a Devers/Casas/Dalbec roatation at 3B/DH/1B is so enticing it probably has the FO salivating. Dalbec is quite good defensively with a howitzer for an arm. And Casas was handling third with a decent glove, so he's got the chops to play first. It's just such a clean fit that, if he does keep putting up solid power numbers, I don't think Dalbec's going anywhere.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 11, 2020 17:53:03 GMT -5
That K rate is going to catch up with him. But for now, let's hope he crushes it the ROS so the Sox can package him and Chavis for a good arm. Not sure about that. He will have to learn the pitchers and the league, so that is going to go against him in the short term. He has a history of high K's, but also walks well, which leads you to believe he has good eye. He is gonna get the top instruction at this point. I feel better about his chances than I do Chavis. I would not think about trading him. His power is too prodigious too trade, for me. I would sink or swim with him for the next 2 years. I agree with you that we need to acquire good arms, though.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 12, 2020 0:21:16 GMT -5
Seems inauspicious to me that the K rate is so high before we've even entered the league-makes-its-adjustments phase. An honest question: what reasons are there to think he'll fare better than Chavis when that happens? Chavis started out on almost as much of a homer tear as Dalbec, remember - he hit 6 in his first 14 games, compared to Dalbec's 6 in 11, and with only half of Dalbec's K rate - and there were all sorts of fun facts about his exit velocities and distances being among the best in the league.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 12, 2020 0:47:43 GMT -5
Seems inauspicious to me that the K rate is so high before we've even entered the league-makes-its-adjustments phase. An honest question: what reasons are there to think he'll fare better than Chavis when that happens? Chavis started out on almost as much of a homer tear as Dalbec, remember - he hit 6 in his first 14 games, compared to Dalbec's 6 in 11, and with only half of Dalbec's K rate - and there were all sorts of fun facts about his exit velocities and distances being among the best in the league. I'll be optimistic: for two, just by watching in SSS you can see Dalbec doesn't have to swing wildly out of his shoes like Chavis to get to his easier power to all fields, and he also seems to have a more advanced understanding of the strikezone as far as the ability to draw walks. His minor league season last year showed marked improvements at Portland and Pawtucket to a 23-25% K-rate, and his strikeout rate has been slowly dropping after his first few big league games. He basically got thrust here straight from spring training-like exhibition conditions, a challenge for any player; in a normal year, he'd be called up after catching fire for a period of time in real games with Pawtucket. And though Dalbec clearly has flaws and risk, I think this fanbase is too traumatized by the failures of WMB and Chavis (who's story is not fully written yet, either). Not every high-K high power prospect fails to make the profile work or fails to get better. Judge struck out 40%+ of the time in his first exposure to big league pitching before adjusting and getting it to more manageable rates in his followup years. And even if Judge is too lofty a comparison, there are plenty of other examples; look at a Kyle Lewis of the Mariners. He struck out 30% of the time in AA in 2019, but was still promoted last year where he struck out 38% of the time in the bigs. This year, that's down to 25%, his walk rate is up, and he has a 151 wRC+. It's not like I'm sold on Dalbec or anything, but I can see why there's a lot to dream on if he improves a few things. Anyway, it's above our pay grade to accurately project where he ends up on that spectrum of performance possibilities, so hopefully Bloom makes the right call whatever he decides to do with him.
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Post by dyoungteach on Sept 12, 2020 19:25:08 GMT -5
Who can Bobby be traded for that’s a quality young high end pitcher?? Because he will have serious value this off season and I believe this is a major blip that doesn’t last. Or doesn’t compute winning potential over long haul. What I’m saying is I don’t feel .220 batting average and a k every night will bring winning baseball night in and night out. The 40 hrs will win at the ticket office though
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 12, 2020 20:37:23 GMT -5
Who can Bobby be traded for that’s a quality young high end pitcher?? Because he will have serious value this off season and I believe this is a major blip that doesn’t last. Or doesn’t compute winning potential over long haul. What I’m saying is I don’t feel .220 batting average and a k every night will bring winning baseball night in and night out. The 40 hrs will win at the ticket office though I'd swap even up for Plesac in a heartbeat.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 26, 2020 20:50:05 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 26, 2020 21:09:29 GMT -5
It’s like Rob Deer
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Post by unitspin on Sept 26, 2020 21:42:10 GMT -5
As long as he keeps his average over .250 I could care less if he whiffs 44% of the time. Kid can hit 30hrs easy and he plays an above average first base. The best part he is cost controlled for a longtime.
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