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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 4:31:16 GMT -5
Which hitter has these splits?
.276 / .311 / .534 RISP (61 PA), 125 OPS+ .333 / .355 / .800 RISP and 2 outs (31 PA), 218 OPS+ .316 / .366 / .632 High Leverage (41 PA), 173 OPS+
And this:
.278 / .314 / .546 High and Medium Leverage (102 PA); he's 112 OPS+ in Medium
.120 / .190 / .239 Low Leverage (100 PA), 21 OPS+
Entering last night's game, he was ranked 8th in MLB in FanGraph's "Clutch" metric.
He's now -.07 WPA (adjusted for the systematic error of not adjusting for this year's offense), which is 0.7 runs below average as a hitter when you weight his PA by impact on winning.
When you factor in situations, the only real drains on the offense have been Kiké and Marwin.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2021 8:00:39 GMT -5
I can't say I agree with your conclusion at all. I think it's interesting that he's performed so much better in high and medium leverage situations, but he's been so absolutely brutal in low leverage that it negates it.
The Red Sox have a 65 sOPS+ from the first base position (mostly Dalbec, a decent amount of Marwin, with some Santana and a pinch of Chavis). It has been by far their weakest position and will be their easiest at which to upgrade if Dalbec can't get it going more consistently. If you play the arbitrary endpoints game you and I both love, his hot streaks are getting shorter, not longer, which is kind of a problem. His strikeout rate is increasing, not decreasing (40% in June).
I have a feeling Dalbec's got until about the end of the month to show them something to give the org hope, but in the meantime I'm sure they're shopping for a short-term 1B. I don't think it'll be a big splash like a Rizzo (who I don't even think gets moved - just giving an example that's been brought up a number of times), but something more along the lines of a Pearce-type move.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 17, 2021 8:22:05 GMT -5
Looking at rental 1B and CJ Cron probably makes the most sense
I worked with CJ about a decade ago. Funny guy. Well-liked by his teammates...at least he was then. He was cape league teammates with Andriese
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 17, 2021 9:55:08 GMT -5
Which hitter has these splits?
.276 / .311 / .534 RISP (61 PA), 125 OPS+ .333 / .355 / .800 RISP and 2 outs (31 PA), 218 OPS+ .316 / .366 / .632 High Leverage (41 PA), 173 OPS+
And this:
.278 / .314 / .546 High and Medium Leverage (102 PA); he's 112 OPS+ in Medium
.120 / .190 / .239 Low Leverage (100 PA), 21 OPS+
Entering last night's game, he was ranked 8th in MLB in FanGraph's "Clutch" metric.
He's now -.07 WPA (adjusted for the systematic error of not adjusting for this year's offense), which is 0.7 runs below average as a hitter when you weight his PA by impact on winning.
When you factor in situations, the only real drains on the offense have been Kiké and Marwin.
Eye opening yet confusing at the same time. Split right down the middle with 100 PA. Does it mean he is close to putting it together? Maybe he is more of an enigma than Franchy.
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2021 10:05:51 GMT -5
I’ve not closely followed sabermetric research in a number of years, but is there any consensus that clutch performance is a meaningfully predictive stat? My recollection was “no.” If that’s the case, Dalbec’s leverage splits are a neat fun fact but doesn’t really affect our evaluation of him. He’s been awful so far and, with Casas looking like the long-term solution at 1B, not sure his at bats even offer up much developmental value to the team.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 17, 2021 10:29:05 GMT -5
It's also not really a good use of OPS+, because of the overemphasis on slugging relative to OBP--an especially pressing concern for high-power, low-on-base players like Dalbec. Dalbec's overall OPS of .649 isn't terrible. But it features a .252 OBP, which is still 100% unplayable. That 112 OPS+ in medium leverage situations comes from a .254/.279/.492 that, in 61 plate appearances, includes 3 homers, 2 walks, 24 (!!!) strikeouts, and a .375 BABIP. That's not good! If you go with the shorthand that 10 points of OBP is worth 30 points of SLG then it's equivalent to a player with a .319 OBP and .372 SLG, even though it's a much higher OPS.
So when you separate out the high leverage, his 41 PA have him at .316/.366/.632 with 3 homers, 2 walks, and 14 strikeouts, and a .429 BABIP. That's clearly productive, but there's nothing in it that screams out that it's sustainable. Basically you're a BABIP regulation and one (1) home run away from him being bad again. If these trends were there over like 200 plate appearances, then I'd be willing to consider it. But this is really looking for a needle in a haystack of a player that has really struggled. And low leverage doesn't mean no impact. He's clearly hurting the team by being an automatic out in those early at-bats.
For what it's worth, in plate appearances coded as "late and close" he is 4 for 25 with 1 homer, 3 walks, and 13 strikeouts (.160/.250/.320). Again, nothing that indicates he has a clutchiness gene.
It's hard for me to say whether he has much developmental value overall, but he turns 26 next week, he has the best prospect in the system behind him, and there are several likely available veterans who would be upgrades. Like, Colin Moran would not cost a top-10 prospect and would be a huge improvement. Michael Chavis might well be an upgrade. I wouldn't fault the Red Sox if they want to see it through, but he's making the team worse in the short term.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jun 17, 2021 10:34:24 GMT -5
Apologies if this has been considered and shot down before, but I know I’ve seen it mentioned a few times on this board — what are the chances of testing Dalbec’s versatility and seeing how he handles corner OF? He has the arm and sprint speed, and Casas will likely take over 1B for the forseeable future. Is it realistic to think that Dalbec can be a serviceable backup corner OF/IF and lefty masher off the bench?
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 17, 2021 11:07:53 GMT -5
I can't say I agree with your conclusion at all. I think it's interesting that he's performed so much better in high and medium leverage situations, but he's been so absolutely brutal in low leverage that it negates it. The Red Sox have a 65 sOPS+ from the first base position (mostly Dalbec, a decent amount of Marwin, with some Santana and a pinch of Chavis). It has been by far their weakest position and will be their easiest at which to upgrade if Dalbec can't get it going more consistently. If you play the arbitrary endpoints game you and I both love, his hot streaks are getting shorter, not longer, which is kind of a problem. His strikeout rate is increasing, not decreasing (40% in June). I have a feeling Dalbec's got until about the end of the month to show them something to give the org hope, but in the meantime I'm sure they're shopping for a short-term 1B. I don't think it'll be a big splash like a Rizzo (who I don't even think gets moved - just giving an example that's been brought up a number of times), but something more along the lines of a Pearce-type move. Being brutal in low leverage situations also has an indirect impact where he basically never starts a rally that creates a medium or high leverage situation for the people after him. I agree, giving him until June should be more than enough time to give him the chance to show he belongs here, and if not we'll upgrade and then give him a chance again next year to stick with the team. And if he fails again that hopefully will be right around the time Casas is ready.
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Post by patford on Jun 17, 2021 11:26:47 GMT -5
Who exactly would the Red Sox target to replace Dalbec? The people they have tried so far have been worse. Just running through a list of teams at the bottom of the standings and what they might want to unload and I'm not seeing much that looks appreciably better than Dalbec.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 17, 2021 11:31:32 GMT -5
CJ Cron in Colorado as mentioned could be an option, maybe Colin Moran in Pittsburgh although he's arb1.
You're not acquiring a guy to hit 4th. You're acquiring a guy to be a competent bottom-of-the-order hitter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2021 11:31:48 GMT -5
I can't say I agree with your conclusion at all. I think it's interesting that he's performed so much better in high and medium leverage situations, but he's been so absolutely brutal in low leverage that it negates it. The Red Sox have a 65 sOPS+ from the first base position (mostly Dalbec, a decent amount of Marwin, with some Santana and a pinch of Chavis). It has been by far their weakest position and will be their easiest at which to upgrade if Dalbec can't get it going more consistently. If you play the arbitrary endpoints game you and I both love, his hot streaks are getting shorter, not longer, which is kind of a problem. His strikeout rate is increasing, not decreasing (40% in June). I have a feeling Dalbec's got until about the end of the month to show them something to give the org hope, but in the meantime I'm sure they're shopping for a short-term 1B. I don't think it'll be a big splash like a Rizzo (who I don't even think gets moved - just giving an example that's been brought up a number of times), but something more along the lines of a Pearce-type move. Here is WPA per 600 PA, minimum 125 PA (272 players), starting with the player ranked #164: Max Kepler MIN -0.06 Nicky Lopez KCR -0.07 Andrew Vaughn CHW -0.07 Yonathan Daza COL -0.12 Jose Rojas LAA -0.16 Bobby Dalbec BOS -0.21 Anthony Rendon LAA -0.29 Albert Pujols - - - -0.33 Andr. McCutchen PHI -0.33 Brian Anderson MIA -0.38 Dominic Smith NYM -0.40 You have to be amused by the identity of the three players who just trail him in actual value per PA.
Indeed, his clutch differential is likely 90% non-predictive, but his overall performance isn't that predictive, either. The point is that he's been very close to MLB average offensively in terms of helping his team win. All of the problems cited that are created by his struggles in low leverage are real, but so are the benefits of the high and medium leverage, and the net result is basically average, not severely problematical at all..
Incidentally, it was positive before last night.
Edit: the mean regular is +0.58, and the median regular is +0.71, and of course he's a 1B. He has been a below average contributor, no doubt.
But Kiké Hernandez is -2.91, ranking 247th. Marwin Gonzalez is -1.42, ranking 208th. They're the two big drains on the offense.
And Mookie Betts is -0.94 (190th).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 17, 2021 11:37:43 GMT -5
Who exactly would the Red Sox target to replace Dalbec? The people they have tried so far have been worse. Just running through a list of teams at the bottom of the standings and what they might want to unload and I'm not seeing much that looks appreciably better than Dalbec. Trey Mancini too expensive? Wave something shiny in front of O’s?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 17, 2021 14:18:02 GMT -5
Who exactly would the Red Sox target to replace Dalbec? The people they have tried so far have been worse. Just running through a list of teams at the bottom of the standings and what they might want to unload and I'm not seeing much that looks appreciably better than Dalbec. Jonathan Schoop, Carlos Santana and Jesus Aguilar seem like potential options to me, depending on how much we're willing to pay, aside from the previously mentioned Moran and Cron.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 17, 2021 14:41:01 GMT -5
Who exactly would the Red Sox target to replace Dalbec? The people they have tried so far have been worse. Just running through a list of teams at the bottom of the standings and what they might want to unload and I'm not seeing much that looks appreciably better than Dalbec. Jonathan Schoop, Carlos Santana and Jesus Aguilar seem like potential options to me, depending on how much we're willing to pay, aside from the previously mentioned Moran and Cron. Please no Schoop, this team has enough of free swingers chasing pitches in the dirt/neck high.
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 17, 2021 14:43:15 GMT -5
Who exactly would the Red Sox target to replace Dalbec? The people they have tried so far have been worse. Just running through a list of teams at the bottom of the standings and what they might want to unload and I'm not seeing much that looks appreciably better than Dalbec. Trey Mancini too expensive? Wave something shiny in front of O’s? lol, give them back Erod for Mancini.. and then Erod leaves in FA.
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Post by patford on Jun 17, 2021 14:52:53 GMT -5
CJ Cron in Colorado as mentioned could be an option, maybe Colin Moran in Pittsburgh although he's arb1. You're not acquiring a guy to hit 4th. You're acquiring a guy to be a competent bottom-of-the-order hitter. I looked at Cron. If they move on from Dalbec (and I still think he should be given a little more run) I'd like to see them give Casas a shot. Most people expect he will be up by next year anyhow and he isn't the sort of prospect who where there would be concern about burning an option because it's very unlikely he's going to be shuttling up and down a lot. I suppose it depends on what the front office thinks is the chance Casas will be ready by next year and if they think he has a real shot of coming up and sticking even before that.
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Post by soxaddict on Jun 17, 2021 15:04:11 GMT -5
CJ Cron in Colorado as mentioned could be an option, maybe Colin Moran in Pittsburgh although he's arb1. You're not acquiring a guy to hit 4th. You're acquiring a guy to be a competent bottom-of-the-order hitter. IMO, Asdrubal Cabrera would be a great fit.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jun 17, 2021 15:10:04 GMT -5
CJ Cron in Colorado as mentioned could be an option, maybe Colin Moran in Pittsburgh although he's arb1. You're not acquiring a guy to hit 4th. You're acquiring a guy to be a competent bottom-of-the-order hitter. I looked at Cron. If they move on from Dalbec (and I still think he should be given a little more run) I'd like to see them give Casas a shot. Most people expect he will be up by next year anyhow and he isn't the sort of prospect who where there would be concern about burning an option because it's very unlikely he's going to be shuttling up and down a lot. I suppose it depends on what the front office thinks is the chance Casas will be ready by next year and if they think he has a real shot of coming up and sticking even before that. I hope not, he's been struggling lately (.618 OPS in June) but most importantly, his swing still needs work: 53% of his batted balls are grounders and he's been ,uncharacteristically, pull-happy (48,6%)
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Post by bcsox on Jun 17, 2021 18:23:12 GMT -5
I have been pulling hard for Bobby. For whatever reason each year I grab onto a fringe guy and follow everything they do. I will say the ups and downs with Bobby have been a brutal roller coaster ride. I am going to throw out a lot of my Bobby/RS thoughts and see what interests people. I dont think Bobby is on an immediate timetable as to when his leash is going to expire with the RS front office. My guess is as long as they continue to win, he stays in the lineups vs lefties, and if he gets in a min run like he did earlier this week where he was getting a hit every game, they can try to see if they can get him into a hot streak and play him against righties. He is blessed that there isnt another realistic option on the bench to threaten him.
Another issue with regard to replacing him, is I am not sure it is a move that Chaim wants to make right now. Just my opinion, but I dont think he was expecting to be neck and neck for first place at this juncture. I dont think he wants to be forced into a situation where he has to go for it. Maybe next year. My guess is that he want to shop on the bargain racks at this deadline. If he trades for someone at first right now, is he signaling that they are in go for it mode, which he may not want to do, and opening your cards now, does not help his leverage going forward this year.
Other random thoughts on Bobby and roster fit. I take no joy out of watching Devers play third. I think he is so inconsistent and makes too many mistakes on easy balls. He is not reliable. This is a three way piece with Devers/JD/Dalbec. I assume JD is going to opt in. I am also going to assume that Chaim is not going to want to allocate 20 mill to a DH. In the event that JD opts out and signs elsewhere, or he opts in and Chaim moves him in the offseason, is there any chance that next year at some point they go Casas at first, Bobby at 3rd and Devers DH. This assumes that Bobby hits enough to stay in the lineup, and Raffy's agent doesnt flip out by making him a DH before a salary drive(two big if's), does this work for anybody. I have thought about it, but the more I type, the less I like it. Bad optics to move a young 20's guy to DH, and we probably dont know other than the arm, whether Dalbec can handle third, with only one game this year, after moving off it, two years ago. Just spitballing.
I havent seen the numbers on bobby at first, I thought I read that they werent great, but for the most part he has passed the eyeball test for me. He dropped a pop up in the rain last week, but has seemed go at picking balls out of the dirt and seems to have handled ground balls pretty comfortably. Maybe his range is poor. Can anybody help me with this? Given the context of this roster, should he be a late inning defensive replacement in games he doesnt start?
His most aggravating at bats to me are with a runner on third and less than two outs. He came up in that spot twice last night, and struck out twice. He takes pitches for strikes right over the heart of the plate. He waves at sliders outside from righties, but he can make that all background noise, if he just nukes the 0-2 inside flat slider that gut giftwrapped to him last night in the 7th. Guys have had long careers by posting 30 hR totals, by crushing mistake pitches. I have seen him miss that pitch at least a dozen times this year and it drives me crazy. Other than that, go Bobby.
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Post by soxinjersey on Jun 17, 2021 22:25:22 GMT -5
It seems to me that one factor needs to be considered before making any major decision on Dalbec's future with the Sox: ML players as a group are having a difficult time at the plate this year, and we know some of the reasons why: a new ball, sticky stuff, shifts, erratic strike zones. How different is what rookies are seeing in the majors now from what they saw two years ago in the minors, last year at the ATS, or even this year in ST? Better pitchers, for sure, but what else? First, a new ball, which apparently enhances pitch movement and makes it less predictable. And then, a higher and more scientific use of sticky stuff? Maybe, but even if not, this tool is being utilized by better pitchers who can certainly do so much more effectively than a AAA pitcher. Young hitters this year have a lot of adjusting to do, maybe more (and I'm guessing here) than rookies have ever had to do to succeed in the majors.
Can we assume (hope?) that pitchers will use less of the sticky stuff now that MLB threatens a crackdown? How much will this help all hitters, but especially young ones? I'm hoping that it will help Dalbec significantly, and that his ceiling is high enough to warrant a longer chance.
I should add: chemistry on this team seems very good. Some personnel decisions are inevitable, but I do think the Sox should be careful not to tinker too much with a good thing.
As an aside: will Casas come up this year? If he's promoted to AAA by mid-July or sooner, I would bet yes. He is the future, and the Sox need left-handed bats. There's a persistent buzz about him that says he's closer than most people think.
And by the way, are they using the same ball in AAA as in MLB? If not, does that partially explain some of the great numbers we're seeing at Worcester?
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Post by Jimmy on Jun 18, 2021 1:33:23 GMT -5
It seems to me that one factor needs to be considered before making any major decision on Dalbec's future with the Sox: ML players as a group are having a difficult time at the plate this year, and we know some of the reasons why: a new ball, sticky stuff, shifts, erratic strike zones. How different is what rookies are seeing in the majors now from what they saw two years ago in the minors, last year at the ATS, or even this year in ST? Better pitchers, for sure, but what else? First, a new ball, which apparently enhances pitch movement and makes it less predictable. And then, a higher and more scientific use of sticky stuff? Maybe, but even if not, this tool is being utilized by better pitchers who can certainly do so much more effectively than a AAA pitcher. Young hitters this year have a lot of adjusting to do, maybe more (and I'm guessing here) than rookies have ever had to do to succeed in the majors. Can we assume (hope?) that pitchers will use less of the sticky stuff now that MLB threatens a crackdown? How much will this help all hitters, but especially young ones? I'm hoping that it will help Dalbec significantly, and that his ceiling is high enough to warrant a longer chance. I should add: chemistry on this team seems very good. Some personnel decisions are inevitable, but I do think the Sox should be careful not to tinker too much with a good thing. As an aside: will Casas come up this year? If he's promoted to AAA by mid-July or sooner, I would bet yes. He is the future, and the Sox need left-handed bats. There's a persistent buzz about him that says he's closer than most people think. And by the way, are they using the same ball in AAA as in MLB? If not, does that partially explain some of the great numbers we're seeing at Worcester? I think it’s pretty close to 0% that Casas comes up this season
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Post by jmei on Jun 18, 2021 2:01:00 GMT -5
Eh, there’s a fairly long history of AA-to-MLB promotions. Don’t think it’s likely but do think it’s a very real possibility.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 18, 2021 8:25:11 GMT -5
FWIW, Rays while Bloom was there really valued AAA as a development level, as opposed to Dombrowski, who was clearly on the other end of the spectrum. For example, I feel pretty strongly that under the Dombrowski regime, Duran would've been called up by now. Not saying one dogma or the other is correct, just saying they were definitely different.
At any rate, agreed it's a non-zero chance Casas comes up, but I think it's at least below 20%. I am very happy with his line this year, but I think he'd have to start forcing the issue even moreso to make that happen.
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Post by jdb on Jun 18, 2021 9:43:50 GMT -5
Justin Smoak is leaving his team in Japan bc his family can’t visit. Could be a buy low leading up to the deadline.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jun 19, 2021 19:01:24 GMT -5
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