SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,200
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 16, 2021 12:18:06 GMT -5
Do we have a good idea if Dalbec is a better 3B now than Devers? Remembering that Devers is a year+ younger and has 4x more major league experience. The metrics haven’t been friendly in his limited sample there this year. I don’t know about his athleticism
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 16, 2021 12:48:58 GMT -5
He has a very strong arm, and the visuals have been ok. He was on the receiving end of the rocket Renfroe nailed Wendle with, and that was a smooth move. I think he's adequate there and with practice he could be even better. He moves well for as big as he is. He has five triples this year. While that's probably a reflection of how hard and far he hits a baseball, you can't do that crawling around the bases. The joker in this unshuffled deck is JD Martinez. If he leaves then there's a DH spot open. I've mentioned before that rotating Devers, an arriving Casas, and Dalbec in that position would be greatly facilitated given that the latter is able to field both corners. He's a hard worker. There's reason to think he could improve the glove work over time.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2021 7:08:47 GMT -5
A good deal of Dalbec's terrific "karma" (actual - expected, wOBA - xwOBA) since August 7 is a real result of his batted ball distribution, which has been bonkers.
Players this year have a 137 karma ratio (actual / expected, x 100 for neatness) on pulled fly balls and a 70 on fly balls hit to center. It's 101 on oppo. I've mentioned this general fact often.
Bobby D's percentage of PA that are pulled fly balls, again expressed as a ratio to league, is 251.
But that's not what makes it bonkers. His CF fly ball ratio is 88. He's not just hitting an insane amount of FB to left, he's at the same time hitting fewer FB to the big real estate in CF than the average player.
Meanwhile, his oppo FB ratio is 148, and his karma ratio is 171.
Just his fly ball frequency distributions earn him .013 of karma. That's enough to boost him from 6th in xwOBA in this stretch (and he's actually 5th since July 29) to 2nd or 3rd.
Next, I want to look at July 29 to August 6, when he had great xwOBA but bad karma. Was that a transitional period where he started killing the ball, but wasn't pulling it yet?
|
|
|
Post by patford on Sept 18, 2021 7:31:49 GMT -5
When Dalbec was in the minors a part of his game was drawing walks. The walks were hoped to be significant enough to pad his OBP to an acceptable level. I recall mentions of Gallo as a comparison. At the start of this season it looked like he was getting the "rookie treatment" from umpires. He was falling behind, getting into bad counts and barely walking at all. This never seemed to rattle him. He impassively took his licks and went about his business. Over time he may have gained the respect of the umpires as he is now controlling AB and walking. During his months long period of struggle he also began (not very successfully at first) to just try and put the ball in play. This resulted in his low average and often feeble AB being accompanied by a concerning lack of power. If he had been hitting .200 but with a HR a week I think a lot of fans would have been more satisfied. Since then his extended period of solid hitting looks less like a hot streak and more like he's learned a lot.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,200
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 18, 2021 10:50:23 GMT -5
The defense at 1B has come a LONGGGGGG way in a short period of time
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 18, 2021 11:01:10 GMT -5
The Dalbec Saga:
The interesting thing to me is what happened in July. After a respectable June, it was actually his longest cold streak of the year. He didn't take a walk for four weeks! But then he immediately came out of it and has raked ever since, with a higher BB rate and lower K rate than he had manageed even in his earlier hot streaks.
(I'd date the turnaround a little earlier than RedSoxStats, though, to 7/29 if I had to name a date. In a 4-game microsample from 7/29-8/1 he had a 132 wRC+. His next two appearances were as a pinch hitter - he went 0-3 with 3 Ks - but then he took off again right after that.)
|
|
|
Post by honestlyabe on Sept 21, 2021 13:35:40 GMT -5
Player A: .248/.315/.515/.830, 6.0% HR%, 35.4% SO%, 7.3% BB%, 11.4% XBH% Player B: .242/.334/.483/.817, 5.3% HR%, 33.6% SO%, 11.4% BB%, 9.9% XBH%
Small sample size, and influenced by Bobby's tremendous last month and a half. Player A is Bobby's first two years (ages 25-26) while B is Mark Reynolds' first four years (ages 23-26). "Mark Reynolds but more so" isn't the greatest player in history, but it's a ticket to a decade-long MLB career.
My big surprise looking through Reynolds stats is that he used to steal bases! Also played a bad 3B (by metrics) while Bobby has of course been learning 1B in the bigs due to Raffy - I haven't been as down on Bobby's defense this year as many posters, but I think we've all noted the improvements he's made on the defensive side of the ball the past couple months as well.
|
|
|
Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Sept 21, 2021 17:41:08 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2021 17:49:24 GMT -5
Player A: .248/.315/.515/.830, 6.0% HR%, 35.4% SO%, 7.3% BB%, 11.4% XBH% Player B: .242/.334/.483/.817, 5.3% HR%, 33.6% SO%, 11.4% BB%, 9.9% XBH% Small sample size, and influenced by Bobby's tremendous last month and a half. Player A is Bobby's first two years (ages 25-26) while B is Mark Reynolds' first four years (ages 23-26). "Mark Reynolds but more so" isn't the greatest player in history, but it's a ticket to a decade-long MLB career. My big surprise looking through Reynolds stats is that he used to steal bases! Also played a bad 3B (by metrics) while Bobby has of course been learning 1B in the bigs due to Raffy - I haven't been as down on Bobby's defense this year as many posters, but I think we've all noted the improvements he's made on the defensive side of the ball the past couple months as well. I've really liked Reynolds as a realistic best-case comp (anyone who says Adam Dunn gets hit with the Nerf gun) for a while now.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Sept 21, 2021 17:52:08 GMT -5
If someone said at the start of the year Dalbec would hit .240 with 25 HR I think most people would have said, "Hell yeah I'll take that."
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2021 19:59:39 GMT -5
The following quote is the key, for me. If you've followed Dalbec through the minors, you know he's very good at making all of his contact quality contact, at least when he's hot. He makes very little bad contact - he seemingly either strikes out or annihilates the ball. That potential misconception of his profile gives me a bit of hope it may not be as cut and dry as the conclusion to the article states. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do with him this offseason.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 22, 2021 0:42:58 GMT -5
The following quote is the key, for me. If you've followed Dalbec through the minors, you know he's very good at making all of his contact quality contact, at least when he's hot. He makes very little bad contact - he seemingly either strikes out or annihilates the ball. That potential misconception of his profile gives me a bit of hope it may not be as cut and dry as the conclusion to the article states. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do with him this offseason. I am trying to scope out what you are thinking when you suggest that the Sox are potentially going to do something with Bobby during the offseason. I have imagined that he has another year on first before the logjam forces the Sox to do something. Are we talking left field? Are we talking trade? Is there anything he could do as a hitter to make himself more interesting or less interesting for 2022 ? It is hard to imagine what. But I am guessing that you are seeing something that I am missing.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 0:49:08 GMT -5
The following quote is the key, for me. If you've followed Dalbec through the minors, you know he's very good at making all of his contact quality contact, at least when he's hot. He makes very little bad contact - he seemingly either strikes out or annihilates the ball. That potential misconception of his profile gives me a bit of hope it may not be as cut and dry as the conclusion to the article states. It's going to be very interesting to see what they do with him this offseason. For me, this was the telling quote, and the point of failure in the analysis: Of course, Dalbec has not been selling out for contact ... as he more or less admits in the preceding sentence! Why not take a closer look at that?
It's an amazing, little-recognized fact that there are three different ways to cut strikeouts!
1) Stop swinging at pitches outside the zone that you can't hit.
2) Stop taking strike 3's that you can hit.
3) Swing the bat such that it makes contact with the baseball rather than missing it completely.
Rather than assume that Dalbec was doomed to start having weaker 2-strike contact ... I want to know the zone location of his extra 5% of in-zone swings, and what he did with them. And I want to know if there's any evidence of better pitch recognition; a breakdown by pitch type would be really useful here.
Finally, he notes that a 2-strike foul counts as contact, but doesn't change the count, so that overall contact rate is a much better predictor of strikeout rate than 2-strike contact rate is. And while the latter has improved hugely for Dalbec, the former has changed much less.
IOW, he's suggesting that some hitters have a 2-strike foul skill, and more or less claiming that it helps avoid strikeouts less than you'd think. And that Dalbec has had that skill since 8/1, but he's been lucky to not strike out after keeping himself alive, and that this luck will not hold.
To me that's all just a tease. You've stopped analyzing and started guessing, quite possibly because you are now approaching an article long enough to post.
You need to know the separate contributions of <2-strike contact rate and 2-strike contact rate (via multiple linear regression) to strikeout rate. And then you might take a look at the residuals (the prediction error of your regression formula) and see if the 2-strike-foul skill helps certain types of hitters more than others.
And you want to get the actual data on Dalbec. How much of his elevated 2-strike contact rate is foul balls? How has that changed? How does he fare (before and after 8/1) after he does spoil a 2-strike foul?
Of course, that I can usually see a bunch of further things any published study could and should have done is probably correlated to my not publishing anything on other than a Red Sox fan board since 2003.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 22, 2021 7:49:10 GMT -5
Dalbecs latest two-week hot streak has turned into a two-month hot streak. Seriously for two straight months now his K% has been 26%. I.......just really want to see him get good at fielding his position, if he can do that I'm 100% on the Bobby Bombs train.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 22, 2021 11:03:34 GMT -5
Dalbecs latest two-week hot streak has turned into a two-month hot streak. Seriously for two straight months now his K% has been 26%. I.......just really want to see him get good at fielding his position, if he can do that I'm 100% on the Bobby Bombs train. I was counting up the length of his hit streak and I was at 56 days, essentially two months. What I do not know is whether six weeks is long enough to be a reliable predictor of the future or just an outlier than inevitably will revert to some lesser norm. I am not ready to predict that Bobby will become a 40 HR guy, but that potential, which seemed to disappear, is back in spades over the last two months. He gets pencilled in on my 2022 lineup as my 1B. Where he goes in 2023 is an entirely different question.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 11:45:03 GMT -5
Player A: .248/.315/.515/.830, 6.0% HR%, 35.4% SO%, 7.3% BB%, 11.4% XBH% Player B: .242/.334/.483/.817, 5.3% HR%, 33.6% SO%, 11.4% BB%, 9.9% XBH% Small sample size, and influenced by Bobby's tremendous last month and a half. Player A is Bobby's first two years (ages 25-26) while B is Mark Reynolds' first four years (ages 23-26). "Mark Reynolds but more so" isn't the greatest player in history, but it's a ticket to a decade-long MLB career. My big surprise looking through Reynolds stats is that he used to steal bases! Also played a bad 3B (by metrics) while Bobby has of course been learning 1B in the bigs due to Raffy - I haven't been as down on Bobby's defense this year as many posters, but I think we've all noted the improvements he's made on the defensive side of the ball the past couple months as well. I've really liked Reynolds as a realistic best-case comp (anyone who says Adam Dunn gets hit with the Nerf gun) for a while now. Is this really a best-case comp at this point? In his first ~500 PAs of his career, Dalbec has a 119 wRC+, and not based on some big wOBA-xwOBA gap either. Reynolds had only one season in his career with a wRC+ higher than that (127 in 2009, his age 25 season) and a 103 for his career.
Hard for me to believe that the best case scenario for Dalbec is that he gets worse from here on out.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2021 12:32:46 GMT -5
I've really liked Reynolds as a realistic best-case comp (anyone who says Adam Dunn gets hit with the Nerf gun) for a while now. Is this really a best-case comp at this point? In his first ~500 PAs of his career, Dalbec has a 119 wRC+, and not based on some big wOBA-xwOBA gap either. Reynolds had only one season in his career with a wRC+ higher than that (127 in 2009, his age 25 season) and a 103 for his career.
Hard for me to believe that the best case scenario for Dalbec is that he gets worse from here on out.
Yea that best case scenario comp seems to be setting a very low bar. If the sox think his best case scenario is mark Reynolds here on out then I'd deal him while his value might be highest. Personally I'd have his best case scenario at a higher level than Reynolds though. I dont have any comps on the top of my head however.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 12:37:17 GMT -5
Is this really a best-case comp at this point? In his first ~500 PAs of his career, Dalbec has a 119 wRC+, and not based on some big wOBA-xwOBA gap either. Reynolds had only one season in his career with a wRC+ higher than that (127 in 2009, his age 25 season) and a 103 for his career.
Hard for me to believe that the best case scenario for Dalbec is that he gets worse from here on out.
Yea that best case scenario comp seems to be setting a very low bar. If the sox think his best case scenario is mark Reynolds here on out then I'd deal him while his value might be highest. Personally I'd have his best case scenario at a higher level than Reynolds though. I dont have any comps on the top of my head however. Right, if Bloom's view of Dalbec is the same as Chris' I'd say a trade is an absolute no-brainer! Maybe that's what he meant by his "interesting to see what they do with him this winter" comment...
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 22, 2021 13:41:00 GMT -5
Yea that best case scenario comp seems to be setting a very low bar. If the sox think his best case scenario is mark Reynolds here on out then I'd deal him while his value might be highest. Personally I'd have his best case scenario at a higher level than Reynolds though. I dont have any comps on the top of my head however. Right, if Bloom's view of Dalbec is the same as Chris' I'd say a trade is an absolute no-brainer! Maybe that's what he meant by his "interesting to see what they do with him this winter" comment... Yea I agree with Chris' comment that it will be interesting to see. I like Dalbec, don't love him though so it wouldn't upset me either way. Situations like these are how GMs make their money. It's pretty much a guessing game. Is Dalbec going to be able to keep his Ks down enough as he has the last few months to be a valuable bat or is it a mirage? The good GMs make the right choices whether that's striking a deal when he's at the highest value or holding on to him if he's someone they see as a good contributor going forward. There's a similar situation with Duran in my mind. I hate to look too far forward to the offseaaon when the sox are still in the thick of the playoff race but I definitely think it could be an interesting offseason.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2021 13:43:41 GMT -5
I am trying to scope out what you are thinking when you suggest that the Sox are potentially going to do something with Bobby during the offseason. I have imagined that he has another year on first before the logjam forces the Sox to do something. Are we talking left field? Are we talking trade? Is there anything he could do as a hitter to make himself more interesting or less interesting for 2022 ? It is hard to imagine what. But I am guessing that you are seeing something that I am missing. "Do with him" in a broad sense that could include "keep him and start him at first base." Casas will start 2022 in Triple-A (most likely). He could be deemed ready by midseason. If you think this is the peak of Dalbec's value, that he's rehabbed his projection enough since August 1 to regain much of any luster he'd lost since the start of the year, it makes sense to explore moving him. To be very clear, not "trade him at any cost," but rather to see what the market offers. It is very possible that trading Dalbec and acquiring a cheap vet to man the position for the season who can be moved aside if Casas grabs the gig at some point is the way to go. It also might not be. Hence why it's interesting. --- As for the Reynolds thing, understated it because I thought Reynolds' numbers were better than they were, but I think my bigger point is that 8/1 to present Dalbec isn't really what we should reasonably expect going forward.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 22, 2021 15:06:42 GMT -5
I am trying to scope out what you are thinking when you suggest that the Sox are potentially going to do something with Bobby during the offseason. I have imagined that he has another year on first before the logjam forces the Sox to do something. Are we talking left field? Are we talking trade? Is there anything he could do as a hitter to make himself more interesting or less interesting for 2022 ? It is hard to imagine what. But I am guessing that you are seeing something that I am missing. If you think this is the peak of Dalbec's value, that he's rehabbed his projection enough since August 1 to regain much of any luster he'd lost since the start of the year, it makes sense to explore moving him. To be very clear, not "trade him at any cost," but rather to see what the market offers. It is very possible that trading Dalbec and acquiring a cheap vet to man the position for the season who can be moved aside if Casas grabs the gig at some point is the way to go. It also might not be. Hence why it's interesting. I suppose that any player is tradeable if the right deal comes along. And that includes Bobby and Duran, but also Dugie, Renfroe, Vazquez and most of the pitching staff. Even the untouchables (Sale, X, Devers) can be traded if one wants to construct circumstances so valuable to the Sox that they would pull the trigger on deals involving those who shall not be traded. As for Bobby, sure trade him for a major upgrade somewhere else (CF, LF, 2B) if you think that Casas is such a sure thing that having Mitchie TwoBags or his equivalent is a one and done deal. Frankly, that would surprise me. Bobby is an unknown going forward, but it is arguable that he could become a 30-35 HR guy with a lowered K rate and enough RBI to count. He does have 75 RBI in 400+ ABs which is pretty good for a guy hitting at the bottom of the order most of the year. In that situation, I would rather have Bobby around (call it DH for the moment) than an expensive DH and then use whatever moneys are available to upgrade a position of need. So, while I am neither fixed nor fixated on Bobby, I do think he potentially offers a hell of a lot of value going forward for not a lot of money. And short of a really good deal in which the Sox fill in a position of need without having to add big bucks to payroll in exchange for Bobby, I would expect that they will keep him in 2022. Thanks for your answer.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,678
|
Post by gerry on Sept 22, 2021 15:51:40 GMT -5
And that is the point. We really donât know any more. And IMO we wonât know until 3/22. CB has provided a heck of a team, neither the pundit projected 70 win or 80 win team. Against the odds this is now likely a 90+ win team. So much better than expected, more fun, more exciting.
I think the emergence of Bobby D is just part of the puzzle. He seems to be who he may become. Is he capable in 2022 of .a 250/330/520/850 season. 30+HR and 30+ 2B? 20% K rate? Why not? His offense and defense continue to improve as he learns to hit and to play 1B. I would bet on him, not against him. Five years of control, 2 more at around league minimum.
If, a few years ago, Dalbec, Kiké, Renfroe, Schwarber, Iglesias and Shaw had emerged as they have alongside Verdugo, XB, Devers, CV, Arroyo, Arauz, we would assume this whole team would be back for another go, with better pitching , and be happy for it. I still would, especially knowing who is AAA and AA.
Under CB that is no longer the case. This is fully his team now and it has shattered projections (even Schwarber, Davis and Robles are doing it, as are Iggy and the Mayor). He and his crew will continue to build a perpetual contender and We arenât going to have a clue about their moves for awhile. He could sell high on Bobby D who should have a heck of a career. I just hope not.
Edit: soxinsf you beat me to it and said it better
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 22, 2021 16:17:01 GMT -5
If Bobby sells out power for contact the ball will only go 420 feet instead of 430 feet. Seriously, you all can understand this stuff better than I, but I am willing to bet they have no plans to trade this guy soon. He is in his peak athletic years, is cheap and a 3-4 of Casas and Dalbec is probably making teams sh*t their pants as I type this. I take more stock in the fact that he isn't getting down on himself. His own confidence in his skills will bring him the best chance of success.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 22:40:54 GMT -5
I am trying to scope out what you are thinking when you suggest that the Sox are potentially going to do something with Bobby during the offseason. I have imagined that he has another year on first before the logjam forces the Sox to do something. Are we talking left field? Are we talking trade? Is there anything he could do as a hitter to make himself more interesting or less interesting for 2022 ? It is hard to imagine what. But I am guessing that you are seeing something that I am missing. "Do with him" in a broad sense that could include "keep him and start him at first base." Casas will start 2022 in Triple-A (most likely). He could be deemed ready by midseason. If you think this is the peak of Dalbec's value, that he's rehabbed his projection enough since August 1 to regain much of any luster he'd lost since the start of the year, it makes sense to explore moving him. To be very clear, not "trade him at any cost," but rather to see what the market offers. It is very possible that trading Dalbec and acquiring a cheap vet to man the position for the season who can be moved aside if Casas grabs the gig at some point is the way to go. It also might not be. Hence why it's interesting. --- As for the Reynolds thing, understated it because I thought Reynolds' numbers were better than they were, but I think my bigger point is that 8/1 to present Dalbec isn't really what we should reasonably expect going forward. I trust no one is expecting a 200 wRC+ from him going forward! The thing is, he's at 120 since 4/11. And he's at 122 since May 1st, 135 since June 1st, etc. Can we expect 6/1 to present Dalbec going forward (horrid July inclusive)? Because if he can keep that up he's basically a right-handed Devers.
I'm not saying he can keep that up, necessarily. But as someone who was pretty skeptical of him before this season, I'm way more optimistic now.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 23, 2021 0:12:10 GMT -5
I am not the advanced math guru that Incandenza is, so I have to talk in BA, HR and RBI, but where we agree is on the meanings of our respective numbers. And as he said, Bobby is making us wonder if we do not have a RH hitting Devers on the roster.
I am not suggesting that he is. I am suggesting that the Sox hang on to Bobby and find out.
|
|
|