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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by e on Sept 1, 2021 9:58:55 GMT -5
I am cautiously optimistic about Dalbec during this hot streak. In previous streaks he was either getting lucky with a bad xWOBA, or his strikeout and walk rates were just too awful to call it sustainable. But this past month he's not really getting too lucky, with the xWOBA stated above, and his strikeout rate has plummeted.
His 50 PA rolling K% has gotten all the way down to 16% during this streak(at 20% currently). Usually this type of stuff fluctuates, but it deserves a look because this is Dalbec's first time it has gotten below league average in his career. He's never even gotten close before. This could just be a hot streak, but I'm a little more optimistic than usual about him right now.
My dream is he follows the path that Austin Riley has followed the past few years. In Riley's rookie season he has a K rate of 36.4 and a BB rate of 5.4, but a good barrel percentage. Everything for Riley was being weighed down by his strikeouts and walks, but in these past two years he's seemed to turn it around. K rate is down to 24.2 and walks are up to 8.8. He actually has a lower barrel rate than his rookie season(which makes sense due to less swing and miss), but his xWOBA is up to.366, which is above average.
I don't think Dalbec can cut down his strikeouts to Riley's level, but I think if he gets it in the 28% range, he could be an above average hitter. This is really hard to do and doesn't happen a lot though which is why I'm still unsure on him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 1, 2021 12:47:31 GMT -5
That would be a huge gamechanger for Dalbec, if he can walk more. Especially if he could be the kind of player who can draw a walk when he's in a "dry spell" to still be able to a productive hitter and not an automatic out would be ubbber beneficial for this lineup. It's the defense that really concerns me, I have a hard time beleiving he can't put in a lot of work in the offseason and improve his play there but then again you'd think a full season getting reps at 1B would have improved his play there too. His BB rate is easily explained: if your OPS is .600 pitchers will just go after you, because you are not really dangerous. If your OPS is 1.200 for a month you ARE dangerous and they will have to pitch around you...leading to walks. Same goes, to lesser extent, with his K rate (down to 25% from 39%): pitchers can just get ahead by challenging mediocre hitters with a first pitch ("here hit it, if you don't I'm ahead already") putting them at a disadvantage from the start. (August first pitch strike 50% vs 59% over the season) Let's hope he found something that will help him along the way. But atm is looks like a hot streak rather than a long term improvement...I hope I'm wrong... Nothing wrong with just another hot streak. If he can slightly prolong his hot streaks and slightly reduce his cold streaks he's a much better player.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 1, 2021 13:00:44 GMT -5
His BB rate is easily explained: if your OPS is .600 pitchers will just go after you, because you are not really dangerous. If your OPS is 1.200 for a month you ARE dangerous and they will have to pitch around you...leading to walks. Same goes, to lesser extent, with his K rate (down to 25% from 39%): pitchers can just get ahead by challenging mediocre hitters with a first pitch ("here hit it, if you don't I'm ahead already") putting them at a disadvantage from the start. (August first pitch strike 50% vs 59% over the season) Let's hope he found something that will help him along the way. But atm is looks like a hot streak rather than a long term improvement...I hope I'm wrong... Nothing wrong with just another hot streak. If he can slightly prolong his hot streaks and slightly reduce his cold streaks he's a much better player. There's an oft-repeated pattern: a rookie starts off hot but then goes into a bit of a trough around career PAs 200-400. This happened with Devers, Bogaerts, even Betts to some extent.
Dalbec currently has 460 career PAs. #200-400 corresponds to 5/13-8/6 this season, during which he hit .229/.270/.431 with a 4% BB rate and 41% K rate.
Since PA #400 he's hit .373/.467/.902 with an 11.7% BB rate and 18.3% K rate.
Maybe it's just a hot streak (if so, it's an uncharacteristically long one for him), but still it's uncanny how the timing corresponds so well to this pattern we've seen many times before. It actually started just about one week before the 400 PA mark.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 1, 2021 13:14:47 GMT -5
Nothing wrong with just another hot streak. If he can slightly prolong his hot streaks and slightly reduce his cold streaks he's a much better player. There's an oft-repeated pattern: a rookie starts off hot but then goes into a bit of a trough around career PAs 200-400. This happened with Devers, Bogaerts, even Betts to some extent.
Dalbec currently has 460 career PAs. #200-400 corresponds to 5/13-8/6 this season, during which he hit .229/.270/.431 with a 4% BB rate and 41% K rate.
Since PA #400 he's hit .373/.467/.902 with an 11.7% BB rate and 18.3% K rate.
Maybe it's just a hot streak (if so, it's an uncharacteristically long one for him), but still it's uncanny how the timing corresponds so well to this pattern we've seen many times before. It actually started just about one week before the 400 PA mark.
Not only is a hit streak a thing of beauty, I particularly like Bobby’s because he has such a lovely swing that almost make his Bombs seem effortless—as opposed to Renfroe’s which are so patently powerful for example. Gotta agree with GreatScott and hope that Incandezza is right. Bobby cannot keep this up unless he has become Vlad Jr overnight. But he does not need to do more than get back to a nice midpoint to be a dangerous lower middle part of the order hitter. As I have said before, that kind of guy has a place on my team somewhere.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2021 12:28:18 GMT -5
Since he starting hitting on July 29th, Dalbec ranks 3rd in MLB in xwOBA (minimum 70 PA), after Bryce Harper and ... wait for it ... Kyle Schwarber.
Other guys who rank highly are Bryce Harper (1), Juan Soto (4), Paul Goldschmidt (8), Carlos Correa (9), Yordan Alvavez (10), George Springer (11), and Joey Votto (12). So 8 established hitting studs among the 13 guys with xwOBA > .400.
So let's list the 5 guys without their reputation:
Bobby Dalbec, .444, 83 PA Edmundo Sosa, .439, 69 PA Avisail Garcia, .427, 105 PA Ryan Mountcastle, .425, 92 PA Enrique Hernandez, .404, 114 PA.
Kiké we know about. He's been a different hitter since being returned to the leadoff spot on June 27.
The Cards' Sosa is a 25 y/o rookie SS who started hitting on August 1 (.442 xwOA, .436 wOBA), after 194 MLB PA. He's started 16 of 27 games; it's only in the last 2 weeks that he seems to have supplanted Paul DeJong, a 2020 struggler who hasn't returned to form. I have to hunt down my BA 2021 Prospect Handbook (there's literally a blank spot for it in my stats library! I hate that) to see where he ranked in their system.
Garcia had a 138 OPS+ 2017, a 112 in 2019, and a 120 this year. He's a good hitter who had a hot streak, which actually ran from July 20 to August 26 (.472 xwOBA, .451 wOBA); he's .221 / .144 in 22 PA since. He was BA's #74 prospect but it took him 4 years to break through ... but that was at age 26, Dalbec's age now.
Mountcastle spent 4 years on the top 100 prospect list and what's he's doing now is not a surprise.
Intuition tells you that you can't be in the league this long and hit this well for this long without being a good hitter. I don't see any evidence here to the contrary.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 3, 2021 14:50:22 GMT -5
Bobby Bombs AL Rookie of the Month of August.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 7, 2021 22:36:39 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 8, 2021 6:45:57 GMT -5
.244/.302/.483 now
-0.1 WAR on bbref, almost above water after almost drowning on the ocean floor (I think it was like -1.5 at one point)
If you told me he would have that slash line at the beginning of the season I would have happily taken it. One of his patented torrid streaks has really turned his season around
If the defense comes around he’s a legitimate big league starter with solid trade value if that’s the route you want to go. Or you can let him play 1B/3B/LF like he’s Todd Frazier (who hasn’t played a ton of OF but did it and looked pretty good when he did) and get him 500 AB that way
The lineup conundrum to me is pretty simple for the remainder of the season. Against lefties Verdugo sits or you get Schwarber a rest day if needed, against righties you rotate Renfroe/Martinez/Dalbec around with JD probably sitting less than the other 2
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 8, 2021 7:36:16 GMT -5
You can't argue with the reality of what has been Dalbecs glove this year, but I still have a hard time believing he can't at least develop into an average defender at first. I would not be surprised if a full offseason after his first full season can help him work on some things and take a big step forward. He's got a little bit more strikeout in his game but the way he can get hot and cold kind of reminds me of Mike Napoli. Big power, and when he got hot you just knew he was going to smash for the next 3-4 weeks.
EDIT: I don't want to leave the impression that Bobby Dalbec is going to have a career like Mike Napoli, rather the way he's got cold and hot this year reminds me of Napolis cold/hot streaks. Crude analogy, that's all.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2021 13:11:32 GMT -5
Shout out to all the old heads on here who cringed when they saw the name Joe Foy.
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Post by soxfan511 on Sept 9, 2021 12:02:33 GMT -5
Do not trade unless for blue chip prospect. 40-45 home run potential with an .800 OPS at his best
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 9, 2021 19:32:30 GMT -5
Sure he would be a good trade candidate for a good pitcher, but why? There are other ways to get pitchers in the offseason.
Bobby Dalbec seems to be adjusting to this level at the plate. If he continues to improve he would be more likely beast than bust.
He is still learning 1B and has made enough good picks and quick twitch plays that it seems he could become average or better there (as in better than Schwarber, Arroyo, Santana, etc.). If any form of platoon is needed we already have Schwarber and Shaw for ‘23 if desired.
He plays a good 3B and has a huge, accurate arm. He may be the best to spell Devers. As said above, he could also play LF for Dugie.
An emerging ~average hit tool with plus power who can play 1B, 3B, DH, PH, maybe OF earning league minimum is someone you keep and grow. One can argue the “sell high” thing, but not a lot of people at this point in his career will guarantee we would actually be selling high.
Casas hopefully breaking in in 2023? Who do we play at 1B until then, and who will guarantee Casas’ success? And how much will a ‘22-23 replacement cost? I hope we get a chance to watch Bobby continue his progress with the Sox. It’s the smart move.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 11, 2021 10:50:47 GMT -5
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Post by jaffinator on Sept 11, 2021 11:32:43 GMT -5
This is a good point that needs to be remembered when calling guys up, but when reading the article I found myself hoping for more. So Mountcastle needs to be more consistent - what is he doing when he's being successful that he's not doing other times? Ok so Dalbec is allegedly taking more pitches the second half of the year, can we be more specific than that?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2021 11:37:18 GMT -5
If you look at the xwOBA leaderboard starting July 29, the gap between any two players ranked next to one another is always 5 points or less except for the very bottom and the top 5. So those guys have separated themselves.
.449 Bryce Harper .437 Carlos Correa .431 Juan Soto
.431 Bobby Dalbec .423 Kyle Schwarber
.412 Joey Votto and then the rest of the field.
Now, Dalbec has a .478 to .443 edge on Soto in wOBA, and an even bigger edge on Correa, who is at .383. And we know that some of "karma" (xwOBA-wOBA) is skill, specifically, the ability to pull balls rather than hit them to CF. J.D. Martinez ranks 56th (of 255 guys with 85+ PA) with a .357 xwOBA, but his wOBA is a below-average .306 because (according to eyeballs) everything he hits on the screws is to CF rather than LF (or even to RF, which is neutral in "karma").
So I suspect that Dalbec has been the second best hitter in MLB in this stretch (which is what wOBA says).
I'd some point I really want to work out the objective adjustment to xwOBA based on a hitter's breakdown of fly balls that are pulled / straightaway / oppo. Statcast should have that already.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 11, 2021 13:05:30 GMT -5
And in yesterday’s game against good south side pitching, Dalbec got 25% of the eight hits, both XBH. He is growing. Yayyy Bobby, good job.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2021 13:26:31 GMT -5
Dalbec week-by-week. How consistent has he been for the past 44 days?
Slash is xwOBA / wOBA
.462 / .308 (18 PA) .290 / .475 (17) .460 / .522 (18) .374 / .354 (10) .578 / .656 (20) .392 / .416 (27)
Through August 6 (first 2 days of week 2) he was .386 / .304. That looks like a transitional stage where he was making hard contact but hitting too many balls to CF.
Since August 7, in 90 PA, he's .443 / .524. In that stretch of time, 3 guys have been in a class by themselves:
.454 / .398 Correa .449 / .461 Soto .443 / .524 Dalbec
then the field starts at .427.
The difference in wOBA between Dalbec at #1 and #2 Tyler Naquin (.476 / .360) matches that between Naquin and #8.
Dalbec in his career, 490 PA, is now .248 / .310 / .511, .347 wOBA (expected .228 / .202 / .504, .339). The average 1B in the last 2 years has a .316 (both actual and expected), the median starter at 1B is .346. Dalbec ranks 19th.
But since he hit 400 career PA (on the nose!) he's likely been the legitimate best hitter in baseball. It's hard to sustain that for over a month without being at least a genuinely good hitter.
Later: four possible futures.
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Post by elp51 on Sept 11, 2021 20:14:18 GMT -5
Nice to see Bobby putting it together. That hit tonight taking it where it was pitched not pulling it was a thing of beauty.
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Post by soxfan511 on Sept 15, 2021 12:35:36 GMT -5
Do not trade this guy! He is really developing into a quality mlb player
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Post by dangermike on Sept 15, 2021 15:07:10 GMT -5
Do not trade this guy! He is really developing into a quality mlb player if this ascension really bumps his value this off-season, i pray that we trade him. it’s been so long since we’ve traded a young player of value from a position of strength. this is what a good team does.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 15, 2021 15:27:51 GMT -5
I was on the 'trade Dalbec' bandwagon before, and won't stop now. From what I can tell he's a likeable kid. And my first pick to throw in a 14-3 blowout. But I just don't believe in the hitting, or the not striking out. Unless you are saying it's because he was a pitcher for so long he's still developing as a hitter. I don't know what his trade value is, so if they just get a RP with two years of control, not sure that's enough, but if there's value from someone, go for it.
Edit: I wouldn't call it a position of strength. Casas hasn't taken a AAA swing yet and we tried to convert a LF midseason.
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 15, 2021 15:31:06 GMT -5
But since he hit 400 career PA (on the nose!) he's likely been the legitimate best hitter in baseball. It's hard to sustain that for over a month without being at least a genuinely good hitter. Later: four possible futures.
Id be interested in this data and what gives you the confidence in him. We don't have to go very far for a counter (Jackie Bradley Jr)
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Post by bcsox on Sept 15, 2021 16:00:40 GMT -5
If they trade a rookie who appears to be developing with essentially a career .800 OPS, and looks like around 30 plus homeruns per his first 162, who is making no money for a relief pitcher with two years control, it will likely be a disaster. If you get a functional #4 starter with control, say a Jameson Taillon type, maybe he is too much, then it is worth the discussion.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 16, 2021 2:46:50 GMT -5
Re Dalbec's uncertain future, one thing is obvious: he's on the team next year. There is at present no knowing just how good he'll be overall because all we've seen since he figured things out is hotness. But we don't know whether his hot / cold ratio going forward will be Manny-esque (typically 2 12-game slumps per season) or JBJ-esgue (no explanation necessary). Trading him now might be selling low.
I also think you'll see him get more than 50 innings at 3B.
More on this later. It's very much complicated by their DH plans going forward.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 16, 2021 11:52:00 GMT -5
Do we have a good idea if Dalbec is a better 3B now than Devers? Remembering that Devers is a year+ younger and has 4x more major league experience.
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