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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2018 13:10:40 GMT -5
Five years ago, I would have completely dismissed Dalbec based on the strikeout rate. But given the trajectory that K rates in the majors have been on the last decade or so... I just don't know. I'm still skeptical, but there's far less certainty than there would have been a few years ago. He's also cut the Ks significantly in July, which is far too small a sample too really say anything, but still, there is some sign of movement in the right direction. And when you look at the 2018 draft class, you'll see about 5 more Dalbec types in it. All with plus power and average-ish hit tools. The Red Sox saw the game changing a little late, but I still really love this class in theory.
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Post by benjgc on Jul 12, 2018 13:13:50 GMT -5
The umps have been notably awful this year in the CL, and Bobby's knowledge of the strike zone has backfired on him frequently, since the umps will call a low or outside strike more often in this year's CL than at higher levels. It's not just backwards Ks that matter, but the phantom strikes earlier in the count that affect the outcome. IMHO, minor league umps should have to undergo laser review in their evaluations, so they improve as they go up the ladder.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2018 13:20:46 GMT -5
The umps have been notably awful this year in the CL, and Bobby's knowledge of the strike zone has backfired on him frequently, since the umps will call a low or outside strike more often in this year's CL than at higher levels. It's not just backwards Ks that matter, but the phantom strikes earlier in the count that affect the outcome. IMHO, minor league umps should have to undergo laser review in their evaluations, so they improve as they go up the ladder. So if Carolina League umps have been this bad giving out extra strikes, have Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata actually been worse than their BB numbers indicate? That's pretty troublesome.
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Post by benjgc on Jul 12, 2018 14:02:31 GMT -5
The umps have been notably awful this year in the CL, and Bobby's knowledge of the strike zone has backfired on him frequently, since the umps will call a low or outside strike more often in this year's CL than at higher levels. It's not just backwards Ks that matter, but the phantom strikes earlier in the count that affect the outcome. IMHO, minor league umps should have to undergo laser review in their evaluations, so they improve as they go up the ladder. So if Carolina League umps have been this bad giving out extra strikes, have Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata actually been worse than their BB numbers indicate? That's pretty troublesome. Honestly, not really. The bad zones have cut both ways at times, but I honest to god can't recall the last time Dalbec or Kemp or Chatham were gifted a ball on what was clearly a strike. Certain umpires are notably worse than others; we've got one of the former working this series right now. EDIT: The other factor is that umps at this level will sometimes be baffled by a breaking ball that has significant movement. That has tended to hurt Mata and Houck in particular, as both have a lot of action on their curveballs.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 12, 2018 14:54:27 GMT -5
Five years ago, I would have completely dismissed Dalbec based on the strikeout rate. But given the trajectory that K rates in the majors have been on the last decade or so... I just don't know. I'm still skeptical, but there's far less certainty than there would have been a few years ago. He's also cut the Ks significantly in July, which is far too small a sample too really say anything, but still, there is some sign of movement in the right direction. Exact same thoughts here.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2018 14:56:51 GMT -5
Merged previous Dalbec threads into one and renamed (props to Joel).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 12, 2018 15:39:29 GMT -5
Merged previous Dalbec threads into one and renamed (props to Joel). Great idea to use a lyric from a song and use that as the title followed by a subtitle showing it's a thread about a player what a unique idea how'd you ever think of that Also I'm going to assume Joel didn't think of the Kanye reference?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2018 16:12:48 GMT -5
Merged previous Dalbec threads into one and renamed (props to Joel). Great idea to use a lyric from a song and use that as the title followed by a subtitle showing it's a thread about a player what a unique idea how'd you ever think of that Also I'm going to assume Joel didn't think of the Kanye reference? The idea came to me in my sleep last night. .
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 12, 2018 19:20:29 GMT -5
Merged previous Dalbec threads into one and renamed (props to Joel). Great idea to use a lyric from a song and use that as the title followed by a subtitle showing it's a thread about a player what a unique idea how'd you ever think of that Also I'm going to assume Joel didn't think of the Kanye reference? Is Bobby Bombs a Kanye reference? And who is this Kanye person?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2018 21:31:15 GMT -5
So if Carolina League umps have been this bad giving out extra strikes, have Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata actually been worse than their BB numbers indicate? That's pretty troublesome. Honestly, not really. The bad zones have cut both ways at times, but I honest to god can't recall the last time Dalbec or Kemp or Chatham were gifted a ball on what was clearly a strike. Certain umpires are notably worse than others; we've got one of the former working this series right now. EDIT: The other factor is that umps at this level will sometimes be baffled by a breaking ball that has significant movement. That has tended to hurt Mata and Houck in particular, as both have a lot of action on their curveballs. Love the eyes-on updates.
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Post by jclmontana on Jul 12, 2018 21:42:09 GMT -5
Bobby Bombs is the all purpose nickname. When he’ s hitting dingers, then it’s BOBBY Bombs!!! When he goes 0-5 with 4k, it’s Bobby BOMBS!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 12, 2018 21:52:51 GMT -5
So if Carolina League umps have been this bad giving out extra strikes, have Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata actually been worse than their BB numbers indicate? That's pretty troublesome. Honestly, not really. The bad zones have cut both ways at times, but I honest to god can't recall the last time Dalbec or Kemp or Chatham were gifted a ball on what was clearly a strike. Certain umpires are notably worse than others; we've got one of the former working this series right now. EDIT: The other factor is that umps at this level will sometimes be baffled by a breaking ball that has significant movement. That has tended to hurt Mata and Houck in particular, as both have a lot of action on their curveballs. I brought this point up in the Mata thread. I expect the walks to go down for Mata as he sees better umpires. The MILB umpires are not great to say the least.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2018 9:55:08 GMT -5
Great idea to use a lyric from a song and use that as the title followed by a subtitle showing it's a thread about a player what a unique idea how'd you ever think of that Also I'm going to assume Joel didn't think of the Kanye reference? Is Bobby Bombs a Kanye reference? And who is this Kanye person? And Bobby Bombs is your nickname...
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 16, 2018 6:54:18 GMT -5
Dalbec with homers in back to back nights, now an incredible 23 on the season. More impressively his walk rate has skyrocketed
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 16, 2018 7:57:58 GMT -5
Dalbec with homers in back to back nights, now an incredible 23 on the season. More impressively his walk rate has skyrocketed Where do you see his walk rate skyrocketing? July is actually his worst month in terms of walk %, though we’re talking less than a percentage difference. He’s stayed pretty steady at a high level all year long.
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Post by jdb on Jul 16, 2018 8:08:51 GMT -5
You would think he’d be on some top 100 lists when the mid season ones come out.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2018 8:45:01 GMT -5
There's definitely something there with Dalbec. I do believe he'll be a major leaguer.
If he can somehow hit .250 he's going to be an awesome player. He'd sport on OBP above .350 and a SA over .500 while playing good defense at 3b.
I guess the question with him is what the K rates will do for his BA? Is he a .200 hitter which is a guy who can still find a major league job if he does the other two outcomes or can he hit closer to .250? If he does that, he's a potential all-star player, a guy who will be near the top of the leaderboard in homers.
I'd be curious to find out but I can't stop that gnawing feeling that we'll be watching him from afar.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 16, 2018 9:47:00 GMT -5
There's definitely something there with Dalbec. I do believe he'll be a major leaguer. If he can somehow hit .250 he's going to be an awesome player. He'd sport on OBP above .350 and a SA over .500 while playing good defense at 3b. I guess the question with him is what the K rates will do for his BA? Is he a .200 hitter which is a guy who can still find a major league job if he does the other two outcomes or can he hit closer to .250? If he does that, he's a potential all-star player, a guy who will be near the top of the leaderboard in homers. I'd be curious to find out but I can't stop that gnawing feeling that we'll be watching him from afar. He’s far from a sure thing. A 23 year old striking out 30% of the time in A+ ball is a big red flag. Joey Gallo for comparison struck out 26% of the time in A+ ball at age 20, and he’s still trying to figure out how to maintain success in the majors after his first 1000 PAs. Dalbec has loud tools, but is still far away from being anything close to a sure fire major leaguer. .250 BA would be a huge leap from where he’s currently at IMO.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 16, 2018 10:05:15 GMT -5
I think we'll have a much better idea of who he is when he gets to AA. Of course you should count the adjustments period, but let's say it's 2019 and after 300 PAs his K rate is around 35-38%, then meh and the expectations should be drastically tempered. On the other hand, if the K remains the same or decrease (it happened before), then wooohah! We may have something legit.
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Post by awall on Jul 16, 2018 11:05:28 GMT -5
I hope they hold onto him, but I wonder if BOBBY Bombs has "hot-streaked" himself into a package to deliver Starting/Relief help?
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Post by bcsox on Jul 16, 2018 11:21:52 GMT -5
Is the consensus belief that he will see AA at some point this year, or not until 2019. For someone who follows the age tendencies, how much older is he than the average player in high A, and would he be age appropriate for AA?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2018 11:44:04 GMT -5
There's definitely something there with Dalbec. I do believe he'll be a major leaguer. If he can somehow hit .250 he's going to be an awesome player. He'd sport on OBP above .350 and a SA over .500 while playing good defense at 3b. I guess the question with him is what the K rates will do for his BA? Is he a .200 hitter which is a guy who can still find a major league job if he does the other two outcomes or can he hit closer to .250? If he does that, he's a potential all-star player, a guy who will be near the top of the leaderboard in homers. I'd be curious to find out but I can't stop that gnawing feeling that we'll be watching him from afar. He’s far from a sure thing. A 23 year old striking out 30% of the time in A+ ball is a big red flag. Joey Gallo for comparison struck out 26% of the time in A+ ball at age 20, and he’s still trying to figure out how to maintain success in the majors after his first 1000 PAs. Dalbec has loud tools, but is still far away from being anything close to a sure fire major leaguer. .250 BA would be a huge leap from where he’s currently at IMO. A .250 BA would be the top of the range for a guy like Dalbec. AA will be a good test next season, and if he does well, perhaps he's at Pawtucket by midseason next year. If he regresses then it doesn't look too good, but he's only been truly awful when he was injured which was last season. He's adjusting well in A ball. I get that he's a bit old for the league, but if the Sox wanted to they could bring him up to AA next month if he continues to rake as he has the past few weeks. I'm becoming more bullish on the idea of him being a major league eventually. I question where he'll fall in the range of being say a .185 hitter to a .250 hitter. A guy like him can still be an asset hitting .230, especially as the league average has dipped from .265 to .245. But it's hard to be an asset when you're treading the Mendoza line. His ability to cut his strikeouts will answer the question and I think it will be a lot clearer once he's at Portland. Like I said, I don't think it will be the Red Sox that find out one way or another. I do believe it will be another team's gamble, just don't know if it will be this July or next July.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2018 12:17:21 GMT -5
You would think he’d be on some top 100 lists when the mid season ones come out. Well, the midseason lists have basically all come out at this point and he's not on them, and I think that's correct. There are still significant issues with the strikeout rate, and as I keep saying, he's basically been hot for two weeks - albeit scorching freaking hot. On June 28, he was at .223/.349/.470 - a decent line but nothing that makes you a top 100 prospect at his age. If he does what he's doing now for the rest of the year? Maybe. Let's let that happen first though. Is the consensus belief that he will see AA at some point this year, or not until 2019. For someone who follows the age tendencies, how much older is he than the average player in high A, and would he be age appropriate for AA? I think after the trade deadline if it does happen (although that doesn't mean much in mid-July, the more I think about it). I don't think we'll see any major promotions before August (unless a potential trade partner wants to see a guy up a level, like what likely happened with Brandon Jacobs when he randomly got promoted to Portland for 3 games in 2013 before getting dealt).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2018 14:53:04 GMT -5
Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet?
Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon.
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Post by benjgc on Jul 20, 2018 19:04:14 GMT -5
Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet? Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon. I saw Keith that night. Bobby went 2-4 with a single, a double and a strikeout looking.
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