SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
|
Post by brendan98 on Jul 10, 2018 20:58:03 GMT -5
Dalbec 4 for 4 tonight with 2 HRs and 5 rbi. It’d be interesting to know if this recent streak is just one of those runs where the ball looks like a beach ball coming in, or if there has been a mechanical or approach adjustment that has fueled this red hot run.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2018 21:03:14 GMT -5
One thing I just thought of favoring a Dalbec promotion within the month: he's one of several players currently with Salem (along with Chatham, Cooney, Raudes if he's healthy, maybe Netzer) who I could see them wanting to send to the AFL. Raudes is done for the year. We'd seen a Spanish article saying he got an injection in his elbow that we're assuming was PRP, and Ben mentioned it when I was on the Salem broadcast with him the other night. Also, I don't think that "only one guy below AA" rule applies anymore. In 2016, they sent both Kopech and Callahan when neither had been up to Portland yet, for example. ( soxprospects.com/fall-winter2016.htm ) It was kind of a silly rule anyway, because it gave teams incentive to just do what you suggest above, and there's no reason not to trust teams to send guys who are appropriately ready for the circuit. And not to derail the thread on a tangent, but Chavis seems to be the most obvious AFL guy given the at-bats he needs to make up and his importance, and I wonder how that affects who else they send. There's no overlap with Chatham, so he still makes sense, but can they send two guys who they might want getting time at the same position? I honestly don't know the answer. Since the beginning of June, Dablec is hitting .292/.382/.642 with a 29.9% k rate. That'a a .350 ISO. I think the main source of positivity is that he reduced his k-rate from 37.4% in Greenville to 30.9% this year in Salem along with a huge increase in power. He's definitely heading in the right direction. If we're doing the trend line exercise, should we ignore the 23% K rate in Lowell in 2016? If anything, it's an upward trend over his full pro career if we're drawing it as a line. Not that we should. He's had a couple of stretches this year where he's cut down on the strikeouts, and he's gone off in both (ARBITRARY ENDPOINTS ALERT!): Thru 5/23: 41 G, 172 PA, .204/.337/.451, 8 HR, 59 K, 34.3% K rate 5/25-6/7: 12 G, 52 PA, .286/.404/.714, 5 HR, 7 K, 13.5% K rate6/8-6/28: 19 G, 77 PA, .222/.338/.349, 1 HR, 30 K, 39.0% K rate 6/29-7/8: 9 G, 39 PA, .441/.462/1.118, 5 HR, 9 K, 23.0% K rate (Admittedly, it's a bit harder to figure out where to start this recent stretch, he had a 2-4, 2B, HR game on 6/29, then went 0-3 twice, one of those with 2 K's, then has been scalding hot since 7/3: 6 G, 27 PA, .542/.556/1.333, 4 HR, 6 K, 22.2% K rate) So you can look at this differently depending on your perspective: Glass half-full: the guy we all would like him to be is in there and he just needs to figure it out Hey, a glass of water: Dalbec might be a bit streaky and needs to work on limiting the long stretches of strikeouts while extending the periods where he crushes Glass half-empty: Dalbec is what he is, but for a week or two at a time it clicks and he turns into an offensive force It's tough to know. Very well-put.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 10, 2018 22:45:42 GMT -5
Another thanks for your insight. Too often prospects are treate as statistical buckets. Each one has a story and is a real person. They all have dreams and live for that chance of the show. Most will fail, of course, and it is safer to point out flaws than point out hope. Not that it matters, but my hope is we could be a bit more positive about our prospects. Agree that we should take a positive outlook on our prospects. I do hope that when we say what a prospect needs to work on our what his weaknesses are that people understand that it isn't negativity just for the sake of it. People come to this site and other prospect sites for analysis and to learn about who these players are. When someone asks why Dalbec isn't the #1 prospect in the system because of his power upside, us putting his strikeout numbers and streakiness into context isn't meant to say he stinks, that he won't make it, or that someone who likes him is a fool - it's simply to explain what he's up against and were he stands in his development if you take that step back. Some players blow our expectations out of the water, and I/we are thrilled when that happens. Using statistics to explain things isn't the same as treating a player as a statistic - it's meant to be illustrative, not reductionist. Please understand it as such, and also don't hesitate to call us out if you see that realism veering into unnecessary negativity. The other side of this coin is that, without looking, I have zero question that there is some meathead on Twitter at this moment accusing the site of "overhyping" Jalen Beeks because he's struggled in his two MLB appearances.
|
|
|
Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 11, 2018 0:45:23 GMT -5
I get the comparison to players like Gallo, Judge etc., but do any of you seasoned vets have a solid comparison for Dalbec in terms of readiness? Hes been hitting like a AA player it seems, but it almost seems too quick. Love the lowered K rate, but it seems like the sox should set a goal (maybe under 20%) for an entire season before a jump is considered. They could see it like he may never have a goodrate, which changes projections. Like anything better than 20% is asking for beyond his capability.
Edit: for a comparison I mean where other sox prospects were like Devers his sophmore year, Benintendi his freshman etc.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 11, 2018 8:56:17 GMT -5
My original concern, when he was first drafted, was about the length of the swing he was using in college. So it was instructive to hear that he was returning to one that he'd previously had. He got hurt after that and I've not seen video since he's been back, so I have no idea where he's at. The first hand reports are really useful, so thanks again for that.
As for comps, Troy Glaus came to mind, another guy with a big frame who played third. But both he and Rolen killed it in the minors and were up to the majors by age 21. The latter belongs in the Hall so that's a real stretch. I can't think of anyone comparable with the Sox, at least for the last 15 years or so.
|
|
|
Post by awall on Jul 11, 2018 13:07:25 GMT -5
My original concern, when he was first drafted, was about the length of the swing he was using in college. So it was instructive to hear that he was returning to one that he'd previously had. He got hurt after that and I've not seen video since he's been back, so I have no idea where he's at. The first hand reports are really useful, so thanks again for that. As for comps, Troy Glaus came to mind, another guy with a big frame who played third. But both he and Rolen killed it in the minors and were up to the majors by age 21. The latter belongs in the Hall so that's a real stretch. I can't think of anyone comparable with the Sox, at least for the last 15 years or so. Middlebrooks might be a good comp?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2018 13:20:52 GMT -5
My original concern, when he was first drafted, was about the length of the swing he was using in college. So it was instructive to hear that he was returning to one that he'd previously had. He got hurt after that and I've not seen video since he's been back, so I have no idea where he's at. The first hand reports are really useful, so thanks again for that. As for comps, Troy Glaus came to mind, another guy with a big frame who played third. But both he and Rolen killed it in the minors and were up to the majors by age 21. The latter belongs in the Hall so that's a real stretch. I can't think of anyone comparable with the Sox, at least for the last 15 years or so. Middlebrooks might be a good comp? Dalbec is showing a lot more power than WMB did. He also walks a lot more, which is definitely a safety valve.
|
|
|
Post by malynn19 on Jul 11, 2018 13:51:14 GMT -5
Right, as James is trying to say, the issue is not "he strikes out a lot." It's that he's striking out so much that it portends major issues that will be exposed higher up the ladder. For reference: Players slugging >.500 and K% > 25% in MLB in 2017 (plus Dalbec of course, and Chris Davis since he's mentioned above), at High A: Bobby Dalbec, 23 yo: 340 PA, .249/.362/.548, 19 HR, 30.9% K% Joey Gallo, 20 yo: 246 PA, .323/.463/.735, 21 HR, 26.0% K% Chris Davis, 21 yo: 418 PA, .298/.340/.573, 24 HR, 29.4% K% (California Lg) Khris Davis, 23 yo: 371 PA, .309/.415/.533, 15 HR, 18.9% K% Aaron Judge, 22 yo: 285 PA, .283/.411/.442, 8 HR, 25.3% K% Eric Thames, 22 yo: 220 PA, .313/.386/.487, 3 HR, 18.2% K% Justin Upton, 19 yo: 150 PA, .341/.433/.540, 5 HR, 18.7% K% (California Lg) Domingo Santana, 19 yo: 525 PA, .302/.385/.536, 23 HR, 28.2% (California Lg) Cody Bellinger, 19 yo: 544 PA, .264/.336/.538, 30 HR, 27.5% (California Lg) So if we're being honest, the only ones who Dalbec compares favorably to are Chris Davis, who has had an extremely up-and-down career, and Cody Bellinger, who has crashed back to earth this season after his great 2017. Maybe you could say Santana but I don't think so given the age difference. Dalbec hit for a lot more power than Judge, Thames, and Upton, but all got on base at a much higher clip, Thames had to go to Korea for a few years to figure things out, and Upton had a bit of an atypical power spike last year after last slugging over .500 in 2011 (i.e., he's not really the kind of hitter we're talking about here). And perhaps this will seem like a cop out, but Judge's development curve is so atypical that it's not really something you can use as an example for anything other than "well, you never know, I guess" if you're being honest. It's not as easy as saying "power + strikeouts? He can be Joey Gallo!". Gallo destroyed the Carolina League at a much younger age while striking out less. Dalbec's only hitting .249 with a BABIP comfortably above .300, and that's after a week in which he was so hot he raised his slash line to what you see above from .222/.345/.475 on July 2 (31.6% K rate). A week ago, this is barely even a discussion. To be clear, I'm not saying he's hopeless or anything, just that he'll probably need to fix the strikeout issue to an exceptional degree to become the type of MLB hitter who will be able to get to his power at that level enough for the strikeouts to not be a problem. An unfortunate thing about this list is that Dalbec is both the oldest (or same age as Khris Davis) and has the highest K%. Considering you purposely selected guys in the majors with some of the worst contact issues, thats a not a great combo for Dalbec. I agree, he's not hopeless, but its clear to me this is still an uphill battle. I think he compares a lot to Judge as well. One is 22 other 23, but they played in the same league and hit in the same ballparks. Judge to me is a miracle, I live in the New York area and let me tell you before last year everyone around here wanted to trade him for a pitcher or the Hot Dog vendor. He had a bad call up in 2016 and even the NY brass was thinking of sending him down after the 2017 spring training. Now they all forget that since he's the "next Mickey Mantle". I am hoping that Dalbec becomes great all we can hope is that he remains injury free and keeps progressing. Last thing, Judge is 26 years old so if Dalbec has to stay in the minors 2 more years to figure it out, guess what, we have time too.
|
|
|
Post by benjgc on Jul 11, 2018 14:14:45 GMT -5
An unfortunate thing about this list is that Dalbec is both the oldest (or same age as Khris Davis) and has the highest K%. Considering you purposely selected guys in the majors with some of the worst contact issues, thats a not a great combo for Dalbec. I agree, he's not hopeless, but its clear to me this is still an uphill battle. I think he compares a lot to Judge as well. One is 22 other 23, but they played in the same league and hit in the same ballparks. Judge to me is a miracle, I live in the New York area and let me tell you before last year everyone around here wanted to trade him for a pitcher or the Hot Dog vendor. He had a bad call up in 2016 and even the NY brass was thinking of sending him down after the 2017 spring training. Now they all forget that since he's the "next Mickey Mantle". I am hoping that Dalbec becomes great all we can hope is that he remains injury free and keeps progressing. Last thing, Judge is 26 years old so if Dalbec has to stay in the minors 2 more years to figure it out, guess what, we have time too. Judge didn't play in the CL; he played for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. We'll have a better look once Dalbec gets to Portland, as Judge played for Trenton in the Eastern League. He did that in his second full season, which would be 2019 for Bobby (considering the lost time in 2017 due to injury).
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 11, 2018 14:18:52 GMT -5
I think he compares a lot to Judge as well. One is 22 other 23, but they played in the same league and hit in the same ballparks. Judge to me is a miracle, I live in the New York area and let me tell you before last year everyone around here wanted to trade him for a pitcher or the Hot Dog vendor. He had a bad call up in 2016 and even the NY brass was thinking of sending him down after the 2017 spring training. Now they all forget that since he's the "next Mickey Mantle". I am hoping that Dalbec becomes great all we can hope is that he remains injury free and keeps progressing. Last thing, Judge is 26 years old so if Dalbec has to stay in the minors 2 more years to figure it out, guess what, we have time too. Judge didn't play in the CL; he played for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. We'll have a better look once Dalbec gets to Portland, as Judge played for Trenton in the Eastern League. He did that in his second full season, which would be 2019 for Bobby ( considering the lost time in 2017 due to injury). I don't think you can just throw out a season in which Dalbec played 78 games. The injury probably limited him but it's not like his development was completely impeded. Also Judge didn't play the year he signed and Dalbec did. Dalbec is well behind Judge. There is zero shame in this.
|
|
|
Post by malynn19 on Jul 11, 2018 14:47:50 GMT -5
Judge didn't play in the CL; he played for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. We'll have a better look once Dalbec gets to Portland, as Judge played for Trenton in the Eastern League. He did that in his second full season, which would be 2019 for Bobby ( considering the lost time in 2017 due to injury). I don't think you can just throw out a season in which Dalbec played 78 games. The injury probably limited him but it's not like his development was completely impeded. Also Judge didn't play the year he signed and Dalbec did. Dalbec is well behind Judge. There is zero shame in this. I understand, but Dalbec just turned 23 and Judge made it to big leagues at 24 and BOMBED, and then last year was his "rookie" year and then he blossomed. I am not saying that Dalbec will have the same success (Hoping doesn't hurt) but what I am saying is that he has time to develop. There's no rush to bring him up now even next year unless its a September call up situation.
|
|
|
Post by benjgc on Jul 11, 2018 15:24:30 GMT -5
Judge didn't play in the CL; he played for the Tampa Yankees in the Florida State League. We'll have a better look once Dalbec gets to Portland, as Judge played for Trenton in the Eastern League. He did that in his second full season, which would be 2019 for Bobby ( considering the lost time in 2017 due to injury). I don't think you can just throw out a season in which Dalbec played 78 games. The injury probably limited him but it's not like his development was completely impeded. Also Judge didn't play the year he signed and Dalbec did. Dalbec is well behind Judge. There is zero shame in this. I completely agree Dalbec is well behind Judge, but I think his star is (justifiably) on the rise. This is a guy who I firmly believe will be a starter at the MLB level within the next few years.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan511 on Jul 11, 2018 17:44:07 GMT -5
Did Dalbec just break the all time single season home run record at Salem?
Watch the video of his 2nd home run, 440 feet. A bomb.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2018 17:48:02 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 17:55:39 GMT -5
It's nice to see Dalbec peaking this year in high A this year, but that gives me a good reason to think Dombrowski might trade a guy like Dalbec while he's putting up big numbers before he even reaches the high minors.
It'd be a safe play in terms of value to trade a prospect while he's peaking, unless they truly believed it was real and sustainable going forward.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan511 on Jul 11, 2018 19:35:04 GMT -5
I know, you guys do an incredible job on scouting reports. I’m honestly just a huge fan whose pumping him up because he has tools I love. I’ve always thought his ceiling was incredibly high. Glad to see he’s destroying the baseball
|
|
|
Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2018 3:06:54 GMT -5
I don't think you can just throw out a season in which Dalbec played 78 games. The injury probably limited him but it's not like his development was completely impeded. Also Judge didn't play the year he signed and Dalbec did. Dalbec is well behind Judge. There is zero shame in this. I understand, but Dalbec just turned 23 and Judge made it to big leagues at 24 and BOMBED, and then last year was his "rookie" year and then he blossomed. I am not saying that Dalbec will have the same success (Hoping doesn't hurt) but what I am saying is that he has time to develop. There's no rush to bring him up now even next year unless its a September call up situation. I would love if he pulled a Judge for the Sox haha. I do remember the year before Judge made his debut there was major concern with the swing and miss in his game. This is still a concern of course, but he exceeded just about every expectation. Mainly, the ability to hit for a good average was/is the most surprising. That being said it just shows that any analysis of a player can be off, but this is rare. At least to the extent Judge has. Im pretty sure that Judge had fairly concerning numbers before things clicked (and he got promoted). His average was .255 in 2015 with 144 K in 478 AB. So thats a 30.13% K rate for Judge compared to roughly a 37% K rate in 292 AB for Dalbec. Seems as though Dalbec has a little more swing and miss to his game when comparing the two. Judge did hit .308 in 467 ab his first season in the minors so its a tough comparison besides HR.
|
|
|
Post by Ryanod1 on Jul 12, 2018 3:32:06 GMT -5
My original concern, when he was first drafted, was about the length of the swing he was using in college. So it was instructive to hear that he was returning to one that he'd previously had. He got hurt after that and I've not seen video since he's been back, so I have no idea where he's at. The first hand reports are really useful, so thanks again for that. As for comps, Troy Glaus came to mind, another guy with a big frame who played third. But both he and Rolen killed it in the minors and were up to the majors by age 21. The latter belongs in the Hall so that's a real stretch. I can't think of anyone comparable with the Sox, at least for the last 15 years or so. Thank you for the comparison. Dalbec has intrigued a lot of us for sure. Its probably fair to say there is definitely reason for excitement, but hes also the best of a bad situation. In other words hes a bright spot in a system thats not to exciting. I, myself, am getting excited again because I believe the 2017 and 2018 draft classes are reasons for optimism. I think the Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen is a very observant comparison for Dalbec. I never would have thought to compare them until you pointed it out, but I think thats as good a comparison as any. Troy Glaus in particular seems perfect where he had the mediocre batting average, 30+ hr power and great arm. I dont know enough on Dalbec for this statement to be fair, but IMO Dalbec as a little bit more swing and miss. I certainly wouldnt complain with a player that posts .230-.240 avg, 35 HR and 100 RBI (with 150-200 K per year?). Do you think that a taller third base version of possibly a Hunter Refroe or Justin Smoak is fair?
|
|
|
Post by cologneredsox on Jul 12, 2018 5:00:49 GMT -5
Hey guys, someone in the comment section over at overthemonster.com wrote that Dalbec doesn't swing and miss that often but by far leads anybody with Ks looking. Is that true and If so: is that a good or a bad sign for his developement?
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Jul 12, 2018 7:24:53 GMT -5
Hey guys, someone in the comment section over at overthemonster.com wrote that Dalbec doesn't swing and miss that often but by far leads anybody with Ks looking. Is that true and If so: is that a good or a bad sign for his developement? He has struck out looking 28 times this year, which is tied for first in the system, but it’s not so far out in front. There are six other guys with at least 20 backwards Ks. I don’t have any stats for any other team, but given that he’s not even leading by that much in our own system, I’d haphazard a guess that’s not true. Plus, his CT% is only 63.4%, which is not good at all.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2018 8:22:06 GMT -5
If my math is right then he has 215 swinging strikes, which is fourth among all minor leaguers. Only Zach Borenstein, Carlos Franco, Ariel Sandoval have more. However, his 14.4% of swinging strikes isn't abnormally high - I'd say it's on the high end of the average range, to where it's a concern but not, like, career defeating. But his stat line is a strange combination of taking a ton of pitches (he's third in High A in total pitches seen), but also swinging and missing at a lot of them.
Theoretically when you see that many pitches, the ones that you swing at should be better hitters' pitches, but if a player gets passive that might not be the case. An extreme example would be when a team would try to be extra patient against Pedro Martinez and then the whole lineup would be in 0-2 counts all night. So I guess the question of whether or not that high number of looking strikes is a good or bad sign kind of depends on whether it's an approach/passivity thing or a pitch identification thing. If he's just waiting out too many good pitches and ending up in two-strike counts too often, that's potentially correctable. If it's the latter then the high minors (where dudes can more consistently throw secondaries for strikes) is going to be a very tough adjustment.
EDIT: Remember around May when there were all those articles about how much more aggressive the Red Sox were being this year, but really it was more that they were just swinging at more strikes earlier in the count, which is a kind-of-pedantic/kind-of-important distinction? So if the problem is that, then a correction being real and sustainable is possible, and could also happen kind of suddenly.
|
|
|
Post by bcsox on Jul 12, 2018 9:37:41 GMT -5
James when you referenced Dalbec's numbers showing a lot of pitches taken and a lot of swing and miss, the name that jumped into my head immediately was Mark Bellhorn. I know other than that they have nothing in common, but I remember Bellhorn to a low average, high slugging hitter with a lot of strikeouts. Not sure if any other parallels can be drwat between them. Just the first name that jumped to my brain.
|
|
|
Post by Addam603 on Jul 12, 2018 10:08:08 GMT -5
James when you referenced Dalbec's numbers showing a lot of pitches taken and a lot of swing and miss, the name that jumped into my head immediately was Mark Bellhorn. I know other than that they have nothing in common, but I remember Bellhorn to a low average, high slugging hitter with a lot of strikeouts. Not sure if any other parallels can be drwat between them. Just the first name that jumped to my brain. Bellhorn the second baseman for the 04 team? I’m honestly confused about the high slugging point because he only had two years in his career where slugged over .360. But one of those years was 04 with us where he slugged .444 so maybe that familiarity is what’s making that stick in your head?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 12, 2018 10:21:42 GMT -5
From 2002 through 2004, Bellhorn had an ISO of .185, which he paired with tons of walks and strikeouts. Calling him "high-slugging" might give him a tad too much credit, but he was definitely a take n' rake approach guy.
In 2005 the strikeouts basically overtook the rest of his offensive game (jumped from 28.5% to 31.5%, which is kind of a good indication of the fine line between striking out a lot and striking out an unsustainable amount) and he was never good again.
I actually think it's not a terrible comp. Dalbec obviously has more raw power, but there's similarity in that their offensive games combine an approach so patient that it might cross over to passive with a good amount of swing-and-miss, leading to those high K rates.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 12, 2018 12:50:23 GMT -5
Five years ago, I would have completely dismissed Dalbec based on the strikeout rate. But given the trajectory that K rates in the majors have been on the last decade or so... I just don't know. I'm still skeptical, but there's far less certainty than there would have been a few years ago.
He's also cut the Ks significantly in July, which is far too small a sample too really say anything, but still, there is some sign of movement in the right direction.
|
|
|