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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2021 14:34:10 GMT -5
The Kansas City Royals went to back to back World Series with Alcides Escobar batting leadoff.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 30, 2021 15:07:20 GMT -5
I'm not suggesting that they shouldn't call him up but boy those home/away splits are something: HOME: .329/.411/.785 1.196 OPSAWAY: .234/.333/.442 .775 OPSIt's like looking at the splits of a Colorado Rockie hitter 😅 I have seen a lot about the Polar effect on hitting but from what I have seen it hasn;t really helped the opposition much. Maybe it is not as big as many think. Those are big splits for sure but he has hit every where and that is a relative SSS.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 30, 2021 16:28:47 GMT -5
The Kansas City Royals went to back to back World Series with Alcides Escobar batting leadoff. Their 1985 counterparts won with Buddy Biancalana and Onix Concepcion sharing the SS position with a batting average around the Mendoza line. Likewise the Sox in 2018 with none of Vazquez, Leon, or Swihart hitting well. You can make any argument saying that "Team X won the World Series with liability Y sucking really bad, so it's ok for this problem". To me, if you have a possibility of improving a problem, you do it. If you really can't, you can't. In this case I think they can improve their leadoff issues and I think it would make a difference, and in the post-season you definitely don't want automatic outs in the lineup that a good pitching staff easily exploits.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 30, 2021 19:22:08 GMT -5
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Home 19 90 79 16 26 6 0 10 22 4 1 10 20 .329 .411 .785 1.196 62 0 1 0 0 0 Away 18 90 77 17 18 1 0 5 8 4 2 10 22 .234 .333 .442 .775 34 0 2 0 1 0 milb.com splits pageThe sample size is very small obviously, but there are some interesting points: -BB and SO stay the same -BABIP Home is 0,326, Away is 0,254 (i hope i did the calculations right) -twice the HR at home (is Worcester a launchpad?) So...SLG may be inflated but BA is just down because of BABIP? Looks close, BABIP is 0.327 home and 0.260 on the road. I agree on your assessment, BA is noise and slugging is something to think about given an IsoP of 0.456 at home and 0.202 on the road. The good news is his IsoD is at career highs and consistent home and away so it makes me think his approach is consistent (and hence his BABIP is noise). His road IsoP of ~200 and road IsoD of ~100 are both very good numbers. As an FYI, you can also get his splits here: Home: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=1&team=533Away: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php?split=2&team=533If Worcester is a launchpad, it seems to be shaping up to be just for lefties. Ockimey and Duran have the extreme IsoP differences, Franchy's is moderated but still there. But folks like Mieses, Wilson, and Chavis don't show the same home park effect.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 2, 2021 13:55:07 GMT -5
It appears that Jarren Duran is not on the USA Olympic roster. www.mlb.com/news/us-baseball-roster-announced-for-2021-olympics Casas and Lopez made the team. This seems a bit surprising given the reviews of his performance that we heard during the trials and I wonder if the Sox had some influence, perhaps indicating that he might be needed with the big club? Any thoughts on how this could affect the timing of his debut?
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Post by cba82 on Jul 2, 2021 14:06:41 GMT -5
This is really unfortunate. Representing your country in the Olympics is something very, very few people have the chance to do.
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Post by jdb on Jul 2, 2021 14:13:04 GMT -5
I’m guessing he’s up soon and would be going if not.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2021 15:16:34 GMT -5
As reported by Speier on Twitter, the Red Sox were ok with him being put on the roster, but wanted the ability to call him up if needed. Apparently Team USA, having to get visas, get guys in camp, etc., decided to not put him on the team, seemingly wanting more certainty. Scioscia later said that he thought Duran would be on the team until a few days ago.
I don't think anything is in the offing, I think the Red Sox were just frank with Team USA that there was a nonzero chance they'd want to call him up. That could just mean that if someone got hurt he'd be the next guy up, so I don't know that I'd read into it.
It makes sense to not have him go though. Apparently the baseball schedule at the games runs 7/28-8/7. Team USA is apparently starting prep in mid-July. I don't think it makes sense for a guy with a legit chance of being needed in Boston to be gone for what could effectively be a month, considering travel and clearing COVID protocols. Like Casas might legit be gone from 7/12-8/16.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2021 15:20:30 GMT -5
As reported by Speier on Twitter, the Red Sox were ok with him being put on the roster, but wanted the ability to call him up if needed. Apparently Team USA, having to get visas, get guys in camp, etc., decided to not put him on the team, seemingly wanting more certainty. Scioscia later said that he thought Duran would be on the team until a few days ago. I don't think anything is in the offing, I think the Red Sox were just frank with Team USA that there was a nonzero chance they'd want to call him up. That could just mean that if someone got hurt he'd be the next guy up, so I don't know that I'd read into it. Umm... seems like something that should have been clarified before he went to the qualifiers?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2021 16:15:35 GMT -5
As reported by Speier on Twitter, the Red Sox were ok with him being put on the roster, but wanted the ability to call him up if needed. Apparently Team USA, having to get visas, get guys in camp, etc., decided to not put him on the team, seemingly wanting more certainty. Scioscia later said that he thought Duran would be on the team until a few days ago. I don't think anything is in the offing, I think the Red Sox were just frank with Team USA that there was a nonzero chance they'd want to call him up. That could just mean that if someone got hurt he'd be the next guy up, so I don't know that I'd read into it. Umm... seems like something that should have been clarified before he went to the qualifiers? Why? What's the difference? There were a bunch of changes on the roster from the qualifier - only 14 of the 24 guys on the squad were on the team in June. It's two separate things. Heck, the DR and VZ teams changed between qualifiers.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 2, 2021 16:21:34 GMT -5
Umm... seems like something that should have been clarified before he went to the qualifiers? Why? What's the difference? There were a bunch of changes on the roster from the qualifier - only 14 of the 24 guys on the squad were on the team in June. It's two separate things. Heck, the DR and VZ teams changed between qualifiers. Well, if it were me I'd just feel a little disappointed if I thought I was gonna get a free trip to Japan and be in the Olympics only to find out that it wasn't going to happen for a reason that should have been totally foreseeable, but maybe he never expected to go to Japan in the first place!
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Post by benzinger on Jul 2, 2021 16:54:29 GMT -5
Why? What's the difference? There were a bunch of changes on the roster from the qualifier - only 14 of the 24 guys on the squad were on the team in June. It's two separate things. Heck, the DR and VZ teams changed between qualifiers. Well, if it were me I'd just feel a little disappointed if I thought I was gonna get a free trip to Japan and be in the Olympics only to find out that it wasn't going to happen for a reason that should have been totally foreseeable, but maybe he never expected to go to Japan in the first place! Imagine being the best leadoff prospect in the Minors and thinking you are heading to the Olympics. Only to not be added to the Olympic team OR the Red Sox roster. Instead you get to toil in Worcester all summer. Door #3 sucks.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 2, 2021 17:20:17 GMT -5
In case anyone had the idea that baseball is nothing more than a business, if the Olympics come and go and Duran remains in AAA that should disabuse you of the thought. Not one thing has changed between now and the beginning of the trials, he had already shown himself to be that guy and if the Sox need him around for insurance now, they needed him then so it was pointless - at best - to have him go through the trial process. The least you can say it that it was an error in HR (not home runs) unless he is in Boston on a non-emergency basis in the next few weeks.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 2, 2021 17:40:54 GMT -5
In case anyone had the idea that baseball is nothing more than a business, if the Olympics come and go and Duran remains in AAA that should disabuse you of the thought. Not one thing has changed between now and the beginning of the trials, he had already shown himself to be that guy and if the Sox need him around for insurance now, they needed him then so it was pointless - at best - to have him go through the trial process. The least you can say it that it was an error in HR (not home runs) unless he is in Boston on a non-emergency basis in the next few weeks. It is, in my opinion, an error to not have him on the roster now. How can playing Danny at all in CF let alone leading him off instead of Duran be a better idea? If Duran is not worthy of replacing Danny now, it is hard to see what will will happen going ahead that will change the calculus.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Jul 2, 2021 17:48:43 GMT -5
Well, if it were me I'd just feel a little disappointed if I thought I was gonna get a free trip to Japan and be in the Olympics only to find out that it wasn't going to happen for a reason that should have been totally foreseeable, but maybe he never expected to go to Japan in the first place! Imagine being the best leadoff prospect in the Minors and thinking you are heading to the Olympics. Only to not be added to the Olympic team OR the Red Sox roster. Instead you get to toil in Worcester all summer. Door #3 sucks. How about that they think he's not ready yet? That the difference between the levels of competition in AAA and MLB is bigger than ever before and that he needs more at bats? A stud like Wander Franco, a far superior talent, is hitting .194. Kelenic, another more gifted player, hit .096 in MLB. One thing for sure, Red Sox management receives far more detailed reports from his coachs and their scouts everyday and if they deem he's not ready, then he probably isn't.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 2, 2021 18:10:43 GMT -5
Fine, I'm not arguing that, only that if that's the case then they should have let him go to Tokyo. If that's not the case then he should be in Boston.
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Post by manfred on Jul 2, 2021 18:15:05 GMT -5
I wonder how exciting the Olympics are to baseball players. I mean, this isn’t gymnastics, where it is the goal of your whole lifetime. It is a recent addition that most countries don’t care about. I’m sure there are some people who might be a bit bummed, but I doubt many of these kids grew up thinking about Olympic baseball, and some might actually prefer not to take time off from their development to go to Japan (maybe) and beat up on Italy or whomever.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 2, 2021 18:21:48 GMT -5
I haven't read the entire thread recently on the Olympics decision and maybe this question has been answered already but how do we know they didn't go to Duran and ask him if he wanted to go? At the very least I'd have to think there was a discussion being had. For all we know maybe they said you are close to being called up but there's no guarantee and the decision is yours but obviously if you go to the Olympics you'll be out of our plans until mid August or whenever they return.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 2, 2021 18:50:15 GMT -5
Hopefully Duran will be able to watch the Tokyo games each morning from the Red Sox clubhouse, then this will all be moot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 2, 2021 20:53:41 GMT -5
1) The Olympics are July 28-August 7. Let's see where Duran is then. The problem is Team USA's camp opens July 16.
2) Again, the report is NOT that the Red Sox said he couldn't participate in the Olympics. They just wanted to be able to call him back (presumably from the preparation before he went to Japan) if they wanted to call him up. How is that not unreasonable? Team USA decided not to add him because they didn't want to get him a visa or deal with replacing him if he wasn't a 100 percent certainty. That's on Team USA, imo.
The qualifier required one week of prep and one week of the tournament, both in West Palm. This is a month, 2 weeks of which is in Japan. It's a different animal.
Since nobody has posted here's the Alex tweets
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 2, 2021 22:12:16 GMT -5
Imagine being the best leadoff prospect in the Minors and thinking you are heading to the Olympics. Only to not be added to the Olympic team OR the Red Sox roster. Instead you get to toil in Worcester all summer. Door #3 sucks. How about that they think he's not ready yet? That the difference between the levels of competition in AAA and MLB is bigger than ever before and that he needs more at bats? A stud like Wander Franco, a far superior talent, is hitting .194. Kelenic, another more gifted player, hit .096 in MLB. One thing for sure, Red Sox management receives far more detailed reports from his coachs and their scouts everyday and if they deem he's not ready, then he probably isn't. That is nigh on to absurd. If he is not ready yet, he never will be. Go read the Speier quote below. The operative question is not whether Duran is ready but what are the Red Sox waiting for? Injuries? Franchy to fail again? Danny to retire?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,449
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Post by radiohix on Jul 2, 2021 22:35:59 GMT -5
How about that they think he's not ready yet? That the difference between the levels of competition in AAA and MLB is bigger than ever before and that he needs more at bats? A stud like Wander Franco, a far superior talent, is hitting .194. Kelenic, another more gifted player, hit .096 in MLB. One thing for sure, Red Sox management receives far more detailed reports from his coachs and their scouts everyday and if they deem he's not ready, then he probably isn't. That is nigh on to absurd. If he is not ready yet, he never will be. Go read the Speier quote below. The operative question is not whether Duran is ready but what are the Red Sox waiting for? Injuries? Franchy to fail again? Danny to retire? Now THAT is absurd 😂
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 3, 2021 0:01:19 GMT -5
First off why would the Olympic team want guys they think May later become unavailable. Secondly, I’d say JD would already be up, but the Sox keep winning. Furthermore certain players that he may replace are contributing. There will be a time. Not to far in the future we will see him. I’m pretty sure Sox will want to see what he can offer before the deadline. That said they probably are not quite ready to give up on Any players on the roster, namely Dany Santana.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 3, 2021 7:21:25 GMT -5
How about that they think he's not ready yet? That the difference between the levels of competition in AAA and MLB is bigger than ever before and that he needs more at bats? A stud like Wander Franco, a far superior talent, is hitting .194. Kelenic, another more gifted player, hit .096 in MLB. One thing for sure, Red Sox management receives far more detailed reports from his coachs and their scouts everyday and if they deem he's not ready, then he probably isn't. That is nigh on to absurd. If he is not ready yet, he never will be. Go read the Speier quote below. The operative question is not whether Duran is ready but what are the Red Sox waiting for? Injuries? Franchy to fail again? Danny to retire? By this reasoning Kelenic will never be ready. That suggests it is not very good reasoning.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 3, 2021 7:37:08 GMT -5
this seems like a situation where competing needs have a hard time matching up. Not that there is any blame for either side, but I do think the Sox will look selfish, if that is the right term, if he ends up not being called up before the Olympics end. It is probably unfair to look at it that way, but this is playing for your country in the Olympics. He won't have another chance.
I am surprised that, while they name their 40 players, there isn't a thought process to have alternates ready, as far as logistics. Are there not alternate members, given Co-Vid and/or injury could happen before they even leave. Maybe that is built into the 40 man, but what about an additional 5-10 players.
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