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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 24, 2021 12:02:34 GMT -5
The thing that most excites me about Duran's impending call up is being able to form my own opinion of his defense.
If God floated down from heaven today and told me how good Duran truly is on defense, I'd be prepared to hear everything from "He's worse than JD Martinez, it's really not close" to "He's the best outfielder on the team, actually"
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2021 12:06:09 GMT -5
Why is Kiké Hernandez sacrificing ABs against righties in favor of Duran considered "a bad thing". So what if Kiké Hernandez doesn't play as much. He's not that good.He's the one who would take the hit unless they decide they'd rather play Hernandez at 2b against righties rather than Arroyo although I don't know why one would want do do that. And Renfroe doesn't necessarily have to surrender ABs if he keeps hitting. I don't think these "losses" are enough to justify not giving Duran a chance to succeed. It's not just the ABs as such, it's that Duran would be replacing Kiké's (or Renfroe's) outfield defense.
Kiké and Renfroe have combined for 1.5 fWAR/2.2 bWAR so far this season. They're basically average regulars. It's true that they're both worse against righties, so even if Duran himself only puts up average offensive numbers he'd be an improvement on the batting side. But you also have to factor in the defensive cost as well.
And if they mean to play him every day, even against lefties, he'd probably even be an offensive downgrade. I don't know if that's their plan though.
I guess I don't see Hernandez's defense in CF as anything that special. Maybe it's being spoiled by JBJ that creates that impression but I don't see defensive excellence in CF. I think Hernandez is competent there while may be a step up from Duran although I'd think with his speed he'd get to some balls that Hernandez would not be able to get to. I'm not great at the fWar stuff but from a simple OPS check, Hernandez is below average and I don't think defensively that's he above average (I guess that can easily be debated). And we know he can't hack the leadoff spot against righties. I'm actually fine with Hernandez against lefties (but that's about 25% of the time they see a lefty if that) I think those ABs against righties need to be taken by Duran. We're being conservative with Duran's projection and I understand why. But we can't dismiss the possibility that he can come up, spark the offense from the leadoff spot before the league adjusts to him, and possibly still be quite effective or certainly a step up even when the league does adjust to him. I think it's worth the less ABs for Hernandez who is what he is. A good short half of a platoon player - the guy who rips lefties who can play many positions - a valuable player no doubt, but one who is overexposed when playing every day. It's worth the risk I believe to call up Duran - and the sooner the better.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 24, 2021 12:14:44 GMT -5
Yep, I want to call him up too! I just think it's a more ambiguous situation than some are presenting it as.
I wonder if they're sort of waiting for someone to get injured. An underrated factor this season is that they've been really lucky with injuries, and we know that Bloom builds his rosters for depth in anticipation of injuries, so his mentality may be that the time is inevitably going to come when they need, rather than want, to bring him up. And if that avoids something like a DFA of Santana (i.e., a loss of depth) then he'll put that off as much as possible.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 24, 2021 12:37:16 GMT -5
Yep, I want to call him up too! I just think it's a more ambiguous situation than some are presenting it as. I wonder if they're sort of waiting for someone to get injured. An underrated factor this season is that they've been really lucky with injuries, and we know that Bloom builds his rosters for depth in anticipation of injuries, so his mentality may be that the time is inevitably going to come when they need, rather than want, to bring him up. And if that avoids something like a DFA of Santana (i.e., a loss of depth) then he'll put that off as much as possible. I continue to be impressed by the thoughtful, even- handed way that you have responded to this discussion. Thanks. You point out that it is an ambiguous situation, and that is, of course, true. Cutting a player in favor of promoting another always has pluses and minuses. But that cannot be allowed to paralyze the decision-making process. Waiting for someone to get injured is about as valuable a strategy as waiting for Godot. If nobody gets injured, then management is absolved from the need to think. I cannot buy that. Bringing up Duran or anyone else including Cordero is a crap shoot at any time. But it is now a risk I endorse because doing nothing cannot fix the Sox issues that need fixing.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 24, 2021 14:06:19 GMT -5
Just want to throw out there that Marwin has 213 PA and a 57 wRC (one year after a 66 wRC). If Kiké takes most of his at-bats as a utility player, a few at-bats from Arauz and is the defensive replacement in center, that should be plenty.
Keeping Marwin as a rarely played backup / defensive replacement and sending down Danny Santana seems to be the best move for depth (unless there's an injury) on the 26-man, but someone needs to be cut from the 40-man. Rios could be the answer, but I think it more likely would be Santana/Cordero/Marwin - which would hurt the major league depth. I'm guessing that (along with Duran's development) is the hold up - may be waiting for the next guy who has to go to the 60-day DL.
A 40-man spot will be needed for Sale before long as well.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2021 21:29:40 GMT -5
Can’t option Santana without giving him the right to opt out—5+ years of service time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2021 21:52:57 GMT -5
Can’t option Santana without giving him the right to opt out—5+ years of service time. Not to be a wisenheimer, but I don't think I'd be that sad if Santana opted out.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 24, 2021 22:56:09 GMT -5
Can’t option Santana without giving him the right to opt out—5+ years of service time. Not to be a wisenheimer, but I don't think I'd be that sad if Santana opted out. Option? OPTION?? Who said anything about option? DFA the guy. His roster spot is needed twice over.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jun 25, 2021 19:47:11 GMT -5
Chan Bloom is ruining my summmmmmmaaaaaaa
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 27, 2021 10:07:09 GMT -5
Something I have read repeatedly about Duran from his teammates is the energy he brings. He works hard and uses his speed to impact a game, always seems to be doing something that makes a difference.
That sounds like something the Sox could use right about now. I really hope, as some have pointed out, that he makes his debut on the west coast swing that is coming. It would make for a great story line if he came up and gave the whole team a boost going into the second half.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 28, 2021 3:18:53 GMT -5
Without thinking, fill in this blank ...
An outfielder needs to be moved off his position if. on average, he catches one less ball than MLB average every ___ games.
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The answer is 14. That gives you -11 runs per 150 games, and -10 is in practice all MLB managers and front offices have tolerated over the years. That knocks 1.1 WAR off what you put up as an offensive player.
The upshot of this is that a prospect really needs to have about a full month of playing average defense before calling him up is not a clear risk. Obviously, if he suddenly starts to play plus defense, it's a different story. But most guys will make steady and slower progress.
And in fact Clay Davenport has him at -4 runs in 127 games in 2019, and +1 in 27 games this year (which is likely to be closer to +0.5). If that's for real, you're approaching the point where he won't hurt you in CF. It is worth keeping in mind that he still has more games played at 2B in organized ball (college, summer, AFL, winter, pro) than at CF, 253 to 210. The latter is not a lot of experience at all for a guy beginning a position in MLB.
As I've said, I think Franchy for Santana is inevitable, and in fact I think you'll see that happen starting on this west coast trip, where they're scheduled to face 4 RHP in 6 G in Oak and LAA. In contrast, the Royals are starting Duffy today and Minor on Wednesday, and having Franchy return away from Fenway isn't a bad idea.
It's much tougher to get Durran on the roster. As someone pointed out, they may be waiting for an injury to take a look at him. You don't want to jettison Marwin prematurely (trade deadline makes sense if it happens) and I don't think they'll want to go down to 13 pitchers until a good deal later in the season, either.
In terms of the 40-man, they have Sale, Brasier, and Durran to add, and Santana and Workman look like easy trims. If the reason they trade Gonzalez is to make room for a Moreland type on a 4-man bench, it's not clear how they clear the extra spot. I do believe that recalling Mata and putting him on the 60 day IL has less and less downside as the season goes on.
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Post by patford on Jun 28, 2021 7:20:47 GMT -5
Without thinking, fill in this blank ...
An outfielder needs to be moved off his position if. on average, he catches one less ball than MLB average every ___ games.
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The answer is 14. That gives you -11 runs per 150 games, and -10 is in practice all MLB managers and front offices have tolerated over the years. That knocks 1.1 WAR off what you put up as an offensive player.
The upshot of this is that a prospect really needs to have about a full month of playing average defense before calling him up is not a clear risk. Obviously, if he suddenly starts to play plus defense, it's a different story. But most guys will make steady and slower progress.
And in fact Clay Davenport has him at -4 runs in 127 games in 2019, and +1 in 27 games this year (which is likely to be closer to +0.5). If that's for real, you're approaching the point where he won't hurt you in CF. It is worth keeping in mind that he still has more games played at 2B in organized ball (college, summer, AFL, winter, pro) than at CF, 253 to 210. The latter is not a lot of experience at all for a guy beginning a position in MLB.
As I've said, I think Franchy for Santana is inevitable, and in fact I think you'll see that happen starting on this west coast trip, where they're scheduled to face 4 RHP in 6 G in Oak and LAA. In contrast, the Royals are starting Duffy today and Minor on Wednesday, and having Franchy return away from Fenway isn't a bad idea.
It's much tougher to get Durran on the roster. As someone pointed out, they may be waiting for an injury to take a look at him. You don't want to jettison Marwin prematurely (trade deadline makes sense if it happens) and I don't think they'll want to go down to 13 pitchers until a good deal later in the season, either.
In terms of the 40-man, they have Sale, Brasier, and Durran to add, and Santana and Workman look like easy trims. If the reason they trade Gonzalez is to make room for a Moreland type on a 4-man bench, it's not clear how they clear the extra spot. I do believe that recalling Mata and putting him on the 60 day IL has less and less downside as the season goes on.
Maybe the Sox should start giving Duran some time at 2B? At least to see if he can play the position at a league average level. He could not be much worse than Chavis at 2B.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 28, 2021 9:15:19 GMT -5
Without thinking, fill in this blank ... An outfielder needs to be moved off his position if. on average, he catches one less ball than MLB average every ___ games. ----------
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The answer is 14. That gives you -11 runs per 150 games, and -10 is in practice all MLB managers and front offices have tolerated over the years. That knocks 1.1 WAR off what you put up as an offensive player. The upshot of this is that a prospect really needs to have about a full month of playing average defense before calling him up is not a clear risk. Obviously, if he suddenly starts to play plus defense, it's a different story. But most guys will make steady and slower progress. And in fact Clay Davenport has him at -4 runs in 127 games in 2019, and +1 in 27 games this year (which is likely to be closer to +0.5). If that's for real, you're approaching the point where he won't hurt you in CF. It is worth keeping in mind that he still has more games played at 2B in organized ball (college, summer, AFL, winter, pro) than at CF, 253 to 210. The latter is not a lot of experience at all for a guy beginning a position in MLB. As I've said, I think Franchy for Santana is inevitable, and in fact I think you'll see that happen starting on this west coast trip, where they're scheduled to face 4 RHP in 6 G in Oak and LAA. In contrast, the Royals are starting Duffy today and Minor on Wednesday, and having Franchy return away from Fenway isn't a bad idea. It's much tougher to get Durran on the roster. As someone pointed out, they may be waiting for an injury to take a look at him. You don't want to jettison Marwin prematurely (trade deadline makes sense if it happens) and I don't think they'll want to go down to 13 pitchers until a good deal later in the season, either. In terms of the 40-man, they have Sale, Brasier, and Durran to add, and Santana and Workman look like easy trims. If the reason they trade Gonzalez is to make room for a Moreland type on a 4-man bench, it's not clear how they clear the extra spot. I do believe that recalling Mata and putting him on the 60 day IL has less and less downside as the season goes on.
Maybe the Sox should start giving Duran some time at 2B? At least to see if he can play the position at a league average level. He could not be much worse than Chavis at 2B. I think there's way too much overthinking going on here. Soon Duran will be in CF. Franchy is kind of out of luck until somebody gets hurt or Renfroe stops being so damn good. They'll probably DFA Santana when Duran is ready to come up. I would assume Arroyo returns and Chavis gets sent down and then if they want Franchy back that bad they'd DFA Workman or Rios, but more likely he stays in AAA unless there's an injury or Duran or Renfroe struggles. Their opportunity to bring up Franchy and have him play regularly was now with Arroyo injured by they opted to recall Chavis and put him at 2nd platooning with Marwin Gonzalez rather than shifting Verdugo to CF, Kiké to 2b, and placing Cordero in LF. They are not going to go through the trouble of converting Duran to a CF, just to throw him at 2b, a position he hasn't played in quite awhile. When Duran is ready, Kiké Hernandez will shift to 2b, and they do have Christian Arroyo coming back at some point reasonably soon.
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 29, 2021 22:57:22 GMT -5
Soo nobody mentioning the two Jack by Duran today?? This thread has gone soft…or maybe there is just not much more to say. Who wants to take the over under that Duran is called of for the West coast trip? Also Cordero potentially platooning with Dalbec…..love it, all about it:)
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 30, 2021 9:03:29 GMT -5
Duran to the baseball world!
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 30, 2021 9:57:56 GMT -5
Are you saying you've seen somewhere report he's getting called up now? I can't find anything anywhere saying it? Either way I definitely think he'll be up soon.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 30, 2021 11:05:31 GMT -5
Are you saying you've seen somewhere report he's getting called up now? I can't find anything anywhere saying it? Either way I definitely think he'll be up soon. Sorry, I wish. No just saying Duran must be asking himself (and the Sox) "what else do I have to do?" I will re-phrase.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 30, 2021 11:14:21 GMT -5
Are you saying you've seen somewhere report he's getting called up now? I can't find anything anywhere saying it? Either way I definitely think he'll be up soon. Sorry, I wish. No just saying Duran must be asking himself (and the Sox) "what else do I have to do?" I will re-phrase. Haha no worries for some reason the gladiator gif just went right over my head.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 30, 2021 11:25:33 GMT -5
It is just a matter of time and we all can't wait but don't forget how well the team is playing right now. I know Marwin and Santana are weak links and should be upgraded but they can't just be sent down, hence we wait.
I'd like to think that at least one of Franchy and Duran could be a good addition for the second half. Having just one of two guys mashing AAA isn't asking too much is it?
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jun 30, 2021 12:20:28 GMT -5
I'm not suggesting that they shouldn't call him up but boy those home/away splits are something:
HOME: .329/.411/.785 1.196 OPS AWAY: .234/.333/.442 .775 OPS
It's like looking at the splits of a Colorado Rockie hitter 😅
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 30, 2021 13:03:44 GMT -5
I'm not suggesting that they shouldn't call him up but boy those home/away splits are something: HOME: .329/.411/.785 1.196 OPSAWAY: .234/.333/.442 .775 OPSIt's like looking at the splits of a Colorado Rockie hitter 😅 Even a .775 OPS in AAA isn't too bad. If it translates to .710 in the majors that would put him somewhere near average and higher than what they put in the leadoff spot. And perhaps playing half of his games at Fenway will help his batting average so that he can be more than a .710 OPS in the majors. I definitely understand the concern, but I wouldn't let it dissuade me from seeing if he is indeed better than what they have now. Again they are near the bottom in OBP for the leadoff spot. I think he would be an improvement and his speed when he does get on could be a valuable thing. You see how the Yankees are slow and sludgy. And Duran is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of that and that is a valuable thing in today's game, somebody who can motor on the bases.
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Post by vokuhila on Jun 30, 2021 13:12:25 GMT -5
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Home 19 90 79 16 26 6 0 10 22 4 1 10 20 .329 .411 .785 1.196 62 0 1 0 0 0 Away 18 90 77 17 18 1 0 5 8 4 2 10 22 .234 .333 .442 .775 34 0 2 0 1 0 milb.com splits pageThe sample size is very small obviously, but there are some interesting points: -BB and SO stay the same -BABIP Home is 0,326, Away is 0,254 (i hope i did the calculations right) -twice the HR at home (is Worcester a launchpad?) So...SLG may be inflated but BA is just down because of BABIP?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2021 13:17:41 GMT -5
I'm not suggesting that they shouldn't call him up but boy those home/away splits are something: HOME: .329/.411/.785 1.196 OPSAWAY: .234/.333/.442 .775 OPSIt's like looking at the splits of a Colorado Rockie hitter ð
Even a .775 OPS in AAA isn't too bad. If it translates to .710 in the majors that would put him somewhere near average and higher than what they put in the leadoff spot.And perhaps playing half of his games at Fenway will help his batting average so that he can be more than a .710 OPS in the majors. I definitely understand the concern, but I wouldn't let it dissuade me from seeing if he is indeed better than what they have now. Again they are near the bottom in OBP for the leadoff spot. I think he would be an improvement and his speed when he does get on could be a valuable thing. You see how the Yankees are slow and sludgy. And Duran is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of that and that is a valuable thing in today's game, somebody who can motor on the bases. Kiké's OPS is .720. He's (presumably) much better on defense as well.
Their production has been bad from the leadoff spot, but that's because they insist on batting their obvious leadoff hitter 2nd. Who knows why that is - as near as I can tell, Cora simply ignores the question - but it doesn't make sense to me that they would call up Duran specifically because it would improve them at leadoff when having their worse hitters bat leadoff is simply a choice they've made, not anything demanded by their roster construction.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 30, 2021 13:31:56 GMT -5
Even a .775 OPS in AAA isn't too bad. If it translates to .710 in the majors that would put him somewhere near average and higher than what they put in the leadoff spot.And perhaps playing half of his games at Fenway will help his batting average so that he can be more than a .710 OPS in the majors. I definitely understand the concern, but I wouldn't let it dissuade me from seeing if he is indeed better than what they have now. Again they are near the bottom in OBP for the leadoff spot. I think he would be an improvement and his speed when he does get on could be a valuable thing. You see how the Yankees are slow and sludgy. And Duran is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of that and that is a valuable thing in today's game, somebody who can motor on the bases. Kiké's OPS is .720. He's (presumably) much better on defense as well.
Their production has been bad from the leadoff spot, but that's because they insist on batting their obvious leadoff hitter 2nd. Who knows why that is - as near as I can tell, Cora simply ignores the question - but it doesn't make sense to me that they would call up Duran specifically because it would improve them at leadoff when having their worse hitters bat leadoff is simply a choice they've made, not anything demanded by their roster construction. I mentioned .710 as an OPS but to me that's the lower range of what I'd expect. Basically with that .710 projection I'm throwing away and totally ignoring what he did at Polar Park and that's not completely fair to him either. It wouldn't shock me if he's a .750 OPS guy. Meanwhile Hernandez is at .720 right now but he's also been hot and has a habit of going back and forth and I'd guess his OPS will be back at .680 before long. He's hitting righties better than his career norms - as he's at .702 OPS versus .677 for his career. His OPS against lefties is actually .752 which is lower than his career norm of .813. I think with more ABs against righties Hernandez will struggle and I think this is where Duran can be an upgrade. Against lefties I would expect Hernandez to pick up the pace and I'd never want to see him on the bench against a southpaw. There's that and I think he'll get some RH ABs as a 2b as Christian Arroyo has trouble staying in the lineup every day. I guess I'm saying I can see where Duran can benefit the team and how limiting Hernandez's ABs against righties wouldn't be a bad thing - and you could always limit Duran's ABs against a lefty if he struggles against them. I think it can work well. And there's still the speed factor. If he gets on in front of the Big 5 (have to include Renfroe now), it won't take much for him to score. And as others have informed me, Verdugo prefers not to lead off. Doesn't mean he won't do it but apparently Cora doesn't want him outside of his comfort zone. I think Verdugo was concerned about letting strikes going by just so others can track pitches and Cora didn't want to mess with his head - just let him hit like he does without worrying about that stuff, so I guess THAT's the reason.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2021 13:53:59 GMT -5
Kiké's OPS is .720. He's (presumably) much better on defense as well.
Their production has been bad from the leadoff spot, but that's because they insist on batting their obvious leadoff hitter 2nd. Who knows why that is - as near as I can tell, Cora simply ignores the question - but it doesn't make sense to me that they would call up Duran specifically because it would improve them at leadoff when having their worse hitters bat leadoff is simply a choice they've made, not anything demanded by their roster construction. I mentioned .710 as an OPS but to me that's the lower range of what I'd expect. Basically with that .710 projection I'm throwing away and totally ignoring what he did at Polar Park and that's not completely fair to him either. It wouldn't shock me if he's a .750 OPS guy. Meanwhile Hernandez is at .720 right now but he's also been hot and has a habit of going back and forth and I'd guess his OPS will be back at .680 before long. He's hitting righties better than his career norms - as he's at .702 OPS versus .677 for his career. His OPS against lefties is actually .752 which is lower than his career norm of .813. I think with more ABs against righties Hernandez will struggle and I think this is where Duran can be an upgrade. Against lefties I would expect Hernandez to pick up the pace and I'd never want to see him on the bench against a southpaw. There's that and I think he'll get some RH ABs as a 2b as Christian Arroyo has trouble staying in the lineup every day. I guess I'm saying I can see where Duran can benefit the team and how limiting Hernandez's ABs against righties wouldn't be a bad thing - and you could always limit Duran's ABs against a lefty if he struggles against them. I think it can work well. And there's still the speed factor. If he gets on in front of the Big 5 (have to include Renfroe now), it won't take much for him to score. And as others have informed me, Verdugo prefers not to lead off. Doesn't mean he won't do it but apparently Cora doesn't want him outside of his comfort zone. I think Verdugo was concerned about letting strikes going by just so others can track pitches and Cora didn't want to mess with his head - just let him hit like he does without worrying about that stuff, so I guess THAT's the reason. These are all good points. I've been at the same place with this for the last week or two: on balance I'd like to see him called up, but I'm not nearly as confident as others seem to be that he'll be an offensive upgrade (your .710 hypothetical is actually a tick higher than where the projection systems have him), while his defense would very likely be a downgrade. If the team thinks it's not yet time to call him up (and obviously they're working off a whole lot more information than I am) then I don't see that as mysterious.
On the leadoff question: I'd just say that if the team thinks Verdugo's psychological comfort is more important than the upgrade he'd provide by batting leadoff, then I think that just goes to show that they don't consider the whole leadoff issue very important.
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