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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 21, 2021 11:01:48 GMT -5
Looks like they got Duran for '21 and 6 more years, ending in '27. No way around it. Unless he struggles and gets optioned next spring.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 21, 2021 11:55:50 GMT -5
Looks like they got Duran for '21 and 6 more years, ending in '27. No way around it. Unless he struggles and gets optioned next spring. Unless the CBA is changed and their is reason to believe it could be.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 21, 2021 13:02:08 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 21, 2021 14:02:27 GMT -5
I don’t see any real trends other than all the early HRs were pull.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2021 14:35:32 GMT -5
Channel 7 late sports news did a segment on him last night. Boy is jacked but very shy with the media doesn't like to be in front of the camera he said.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 22, 2021 1:47:48 GMT -5
Looks like they got Duran for '21 and 6 more years, ending in '27. No way around it. Unless he struggles and gets optioned next spring. That happened in April. The change in status here is that he likely won't be eligible for arbitration after 2 years (ie, a Super 2), he'll have to wait the normal 3 years. Baseball's #1 prospect, Wander Franco has been called up by the way. The second coming ??
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 23, 2021 13:48:27 GMT -5
EVERYTHING MAKES SENSE NOW.
Why are they so adamant about keeping the current 2 through 5 hitters, even as they struggle to find a capable leadoff hitter? Well, if you were really confident that you had the answer to the leadoff position in AAA, why would you jerk those guys around? Bat them 2 through 5 where they will hit in the second half, and try to groom a guy to do the job in the interim. Understand that before I compiled the numbers I'm about to cite, I was completely skeptical that they would be good and rosy. I thought I would be taking the sails out of the idea that Duran -- who seems to be another guy whose value comes from SA more than OBP -- is the answer to the leadoff dilemma. So, Jarren Duran has hit leadoff in all but 2 games, games where Kiké was rehabbing. So that's 29 games they've used him there. Here is what he has hit leading off the game, versus what he has hit later in the same games. A direct compariison. HRC as always is HR / Contact.
When BA OBP SA SO% BB% HRC BABIP 1st .346 .414 .500 .207 .103 .050 .421 After .268 .354 .649 .250 .098 .157 .254
The .421 BABIP might temper our enthusiasm, so let's take a look at that first.
Of his 7 singles as the first batter of the game, one was an infield hit to SS, and one a FB to LF. 2 were "sharp" ground balls and three were line drives. He also had a LD double, and a LD out to CF.
.800 BABIP on LD (.250 LD%)
.375 BABIP on GB .167 BABIP on FB
Given the need to round up or down to get an integer in the numerator, there is only extra hit here, a GB. But given his speed and how hard he's hitting the ball into AAA defenses, I don't see that as luck..
Leadoff Duran is a very different hitter, one who is cutting down his swing a bit and trying to hit liners more than homers. Since a point of OBP is nearly twice as valuable as a point of SA, he's nearly as good as Later Durran in the abstract. But when you know that any HR is a solo homer, it's probably a better line. When the next four guys are great hitters ... you get the idea.
It seems clear that they asked him to do this and he's been able to do it.
A catchable ball to the OF that is not caught is worth about a run on average. We know his defense is a work in progress. I think he'll be here as soon as the defense in CF plays.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 23, 2021 14:42:54 GMT -5
EVERYTHING MAKES SENSE NOW.
Why are they so adamant about keeping the current 2 through 5 hitters, even as they struggle to find a capable leadoff hitter? Well, if you were really confident that you had the answer to the leadoff position in AAA, why would you jerk those guys around? Bat them 2 through 5 where they will hit in the second half, and try to groom a guy to do the job in the interim. Understand that before I compiled the numbers I'm about to cite, I was completely skeptical that they would be good and rosy. I thought I would be taking the sails out of the idea that Duran -- who seems to be another guy whose value comes from SA more than OBP -- is the answer to the leadoff dilemma. So, Jarren Duran has hit leadoff in all but 2 games, games where Kiké was rehabbing. So that's 29 games they've used him there. Here is what he has hit leading off the game, versus what he has hit later in the same games. A direct compariison. HRC as always is HR / Contact.
When BA OBP SA SO% BB% HRC BABIP 1st .346 .414 .500 .207 .103 .050 .421 After .268 .354 .649 .250 .098 .157 .254
The .421 BABIP might temper our enthusiasm, so let's take a look at that first.
Of his 7 singles as the first batter of the game, one was an infield hit to SS, and one a FB to LF. 2 were "sharp" ground balls and three were line drives. He also had a LD double, and a LD out to CF.
.800 BABIP on LD (.250 LD%)
.375 BABIP on GB .167 BABIP on FB
Given the need to round up or down to get an integer in the numerator, there is only extra hit here, a GB. But given his speed and how hard he's hitting the ball into AAA defenses, I don't see that as luck..
Leadoff Duran is a very different hitter, one who is cutting down his swing a bit and trying to hit liners more than homers. Since a point of OBP is nearly twice as valuable as a point of SA, he's nearly as good as Later Durran in the abstract. But when you know that any HR is a solo homer, it's probably a better line. When the next four guys are great hitters ... you get the idea.
It seems clear that they asked him to do this and he's been able to do it.
A catchable ball to the OF that is not caught is worth about a run on average. We know his defense is a work in progress. I think he'll be here as soon as the defense in CF plays.
Fantastic!! My only question is if his defense is really that questionable to the point of holding him back then why CF? I mean really wouldn't starting out in left and maybe working your way towards center make more sense? Left would be an easier adjustment from 2nd right?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 23, 2021 15:06:05 GMT -5
I have wondered that myself, but Verdugo seems better in the corner outfield positions, so if you go with Duran in CF you at least have plus-defense guys in 2 of the 3 outfield spots. So unless he's *real* bad (I haven't seen him play in Worcester and would be interested to hear reports!) I think CF makes sense, especially if they still see him there long term - and given his speed there's reason to hope for that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 23, 2021 15:10:18 GMT -5
If they want him in CF eventually I'm not sure putting him in LF for some time actually helps with that. He'd have to adjust to reading the ball off the bat from a different angle and having it break in different ways. Perhaps because there's less ground to cover he could get picked up a bit by who is in center, but it would hamper his development, and there is a chance it would set him back far enough that he'd actually be more of a negative in LF right now than center.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 23, 2021 15:16:11 GMT -5
If they want him in CF eventually I'm not sure putting him in LF for some time actually helps with that. He'd have to adjust to reading the ball off the bat from a different angle and having it break in different ways. Perhaps because there's less ground to cover he could get picked up a bit by who is in center, but it would hamper his development, and there is a chance it would set him back far enough that he'd actually be more of a negative in LF right now than center. It also wastes his speed and puts him in a situation to have to learn how to play the wall on the fly. It's not like Verdugo or Hernandez are JBJ in CF. All I can say is that I hope they bring Duran up real soon. I don't think there's a lot left to prove in AAA for Duran, and it's not like he's 22. While I'm sure there will be an adjustment period, I think it's time to bring him up, although I do agree with the sentiment that they're waiting for the West Coast trip to break him in, so I think we'll see him up in early July.
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Post by jaffinator on Jun 23, 2021 15:26:36 GMT -5
I actually think Hernandez has been a very good center fielder. He's not competing for a gold glove necessarily, but it does seem the case that he would provide noticeably better defense at that position than Duran would (and is a plus centerfielder in general).
I think it's worth calling up Duran anyways, but it's worth mentioning. Hernandez has also been on a small hot streak the past week+, which might be affecting things on the margins? Maybe a small bit? To be honest, I'm not sure how much something like that would affect the timing of calling up Duran.
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 23, 2021 18:01:49 GMT -5
All of this talk about defense has become a bad joke. Duran’s line of .291/.381/1.015 with 13 HR in 134 ABs makes him the player who is needed now, ready now, has better numbers than Wander Franco.
All of this talk that he can’t play left field is a worse joke. We have seen a lifetime of weak fielders in left at Fenway.
If he is not good enough now, he won’t be in two weeks or two months.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 23, 2021 21:10:18 GMT -5
Duran or no Duran, Danny Santana has to go. He is downright terrible
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 23, 2021 21:34:43 GMT -5
Duran or no Duran, Danny Santana has to go. He is downright terrible Let’s bring up Marcus Wilson for a month and then at the deadline trade him for the 2027 Cy Young.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 23, 2021 22:55:25 GMT -5
All of this talk about defense has become a bad joke. Duran’s line of .291/.381/1.015 with 13 HR in 134 ABs makes him the player who is needed now, ready now, has better numbers than Wander Franco. All of this talk that he can’t play left field is a worse joke. We have seen a lifetime of weak fielders in left at Fenway. If he is not good enough now, he won’t be in two weeks or two months. So, this has been mentioned before and is a completely obvious point (though I don't know if you've responded to it or not), but obviously defensive performance does matter, and just as obviously if a player is great offensively that value can overcome poor defense. The question, then, is whether Duran's offensive production can overcome (presumably) poor defense.
The projections have Duran as something like a .257/.311/.388 hitter this season - around an 89 wRC+. That sort of production along with subpar defense doesn't seem like the clear answer to the team's problems.
Obviously the projections aren't oracles; they're probably underestimating his power potential for one. I just mention them as a starting point for this question: what sort of batting line would you predict for Duran for the rest of this season, if he were called up tomorrow?
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Post by soxinsf on Jun 23, 2021 23:58:01 GMT -5
*What sort of line would I Project?*
Fair question. But one without answer from me. I have no idea.
What I do know are the following—
Duran is hitting every bit as well, and arguably better, than Wander Franco was when he was called up.
I know nothing about projections. Performance in the bigs speaks for itself. And performance in AAA also speaks for itself. In fact, Duran has hit at every level, and he continues to get rave reviews from knowledgeable professionals.
The Red Sox need a leadoff hitter and a replacement for Santana. They also need to attempt to improve upon the dysfunctional parts of their narrative.
All of these add up to giving Duran a chance. Frankly, at this point, it is nuts not to.
As for the continuing argument that Duran’s defense is so bad as to cancel out any good he may do, I would point you to his Manager in Puerto Rico, a member of the Sox staff, who said he did just fine. And there is the recent quote from a neutral source found earlier in this thread that his defense is adequate.
For all those reasons, I see no downside in moving him up now. And, maybe, just maybe, he will turn out OK. If not, what have we lost? Danny Santana?
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Post by tyler3 on Jun 24, 2021 0:20:31 GMT -5
I guess my question is, at what point do the Red Sox take this season seriously. I know they thought they were “sneaky good” but I don’t think they were counting on having the division lead at this point. The division is there to be had and quite frankly the post season looks more open than ever. However on the other end of things apparently 4/5ths of our staring pitching now sucks so. I don’t know. This team can’t keep operating with three automatic outs in the lineup can they? Having no lead off hitter is just brutal.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 24, 2021 1:52:41 GMT -5
If Durans defence is going to be an issue why not LF??? Verdugo is good enough in CF and Renfroe is good enough in RF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 24, 2021 2:38:14 GMT -5
*What sort of line would I Project?* Fair question. But one without answer from me. I have no idea. What I do know are the following— Duran is hitting every bit as well, and arguably better, than Wander Franco was when he was called up. I know nothing about projections. Performance in the bigs speaks for itself. And performance in AAA also speaks for itself. In fact, Duran has hit at every level, and he continues to get rave reviews from knowledgeable professionals. The Red Sox need a leadoff hitter and a replacement for Santana. They also need to attempt to improve upon the dysfunctional parts of their narrative. All of these add up to giving Duran a chance. Frankly, at this point, it is nuts not to. As for the continuing argument that Duran’s defense is so bad as to cancel out any good he may do, I would point you to his Manager in Puerto Rico, a member of the Sox staff, who said he did just fine. And there is the recent quote from a neutral source found earlier in this thread that his defense is adequate. For all those reasons, I see no downside in moving him up now. And, maybe, just maybe, he will turn out OK. If not, what have we lost? Danny Santana? That's not remotely true. Franco hit .272 / .340 / .511 in May and earned his call-up by hitting .371 / .405 / .686 in June. That's .100 of OPS better than Duran, who is benefiting from the WooSox stadium. Duran has a 1.120 OPS at home and .883 on the road. Franco has a 1.019 overall on the road with 1.063 in June.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jun 24, 2021 10:55:05 GMT -5
Not to mention that at the same age Franco is today, Duran was rounding bases at Long Beach.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 24, 2021 11:08:26 GMT -5
Attended the game last night at the TROP. Very messy game and I kept saying to my friend throughout the game: "why is Santana still in the line-up?". He is a total lost cause and needs to be waived.
I have no answer to why the promotion of Duran hasn't happened. It is beyond time for him to be called up. At the worse, put Verdugo in center and place Duran in left. Their line-up, other than 2 thru 6, is really challenged. Whatever they do, please get rid of Santana. You have 3 better choices down in AAA in Duran, Wilson, and Cordero. STOP "running" Santana out there!!
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Post by incandenza on Jun 24, 2021 11:19:22 GMT -5
*What sort of line would I Project?* Fair question. But one without answer from me. I have no idea. What I do know are the followingâ Duran is hitting every bit as well, and arguably better, than Wander Franco was when he was called up. I know nothing about projections. Performance in the bigs speaks for itself. And performance in AAA also speaks for itself. In fact, Duran has hit at every level, and he continues to get rave reviews from knowledgeable professionals. The Red Sox need a leadoff hitter and a replacement for Santana. They also need to attempt to improve upon the dysfunctional parts of their narrative. All of these add up to giving Duran a chance. Frankly, at this point, it is nuts not to. As for the continuing argument that Duranâs defense is so bad as to cancel out any good he may do, I would point you to his Manager in Puerto Rico, a member of the Sox staff, who said he did just fine. And there is the recent quote from a neutral source found earlier in this thread that his defense is adequate. For all those reasons, I see no downside in moving him up now. And, maybe, just maybe, he will turn out OK. If not, what have we lost? Danny Santana? Well, not to be Captain Obvious again, but if AAA performance speaks for itself, what it's saying is that Franchy Cordero is even better than Duran.
I'm not against a promotion at this point. But I think a very good outcome for Duran in Boston this season would be .750 OPS with average defense. And as Chris has pointed out, his ABs would come not just at the expense of Santana, but Kiké, Arroyo, and Renfroe as well. So it's a defensive downgrade and an offensive upgrade that is not as clear-cut as it might seem.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 24, 2021 11:42:54 GMT -5
*What sort of line would I Project?* Fair question. But one without answer from me. I have no idea. What I do know are the followingâ Duran is hitting every bit as well, and arguably better, than Wander Franco was when he was called up. I know nothing about projections. Performance in the bigs speaks for itself. And performance in AAA also speaks for itself. In fact, Duran has hit at every level, and he continues to get rave reviews from knowledgeable professionals. The Red Sox need a leadoff hitter and a replacement for Santana. They also need to attempt to improve upon the dysfunctional parts of their narrative. All of these add up to giving Duran a chance. Frankly, at this point, it is nuts not to. As for the continuing argument that DuranâÂÂs defense is so bad as to cancel out any good he may do, I would point you to his Manager in Puerto Rico, a member of the Sox staff, who said he did just fine. And there is the recent quote from a neutral source found earlier in this thread that his defense is adequate. For all those reasons, I see no downside in moving him up now. And, maybe, just maybe, he will turn out OK. If not, what have we lost? Danny Santana? Well, not to be Captain Obvious again, but if AAA performance speaks for itself, what it's saying is that Franchy Cordero is even better than Duran. I'm not against a promotion at this point. But I think a very good outcome for Duran in Boston this season would be .750 OPS with average defense. And as Chris has pointed out, his ABs would come not just at the expense of Santana, but Kiké, Arroyo, and Renfroe as well. So it's a defensive downgrade and an offensive upgrade that is not as clear-cut as it might seem.
Why is Kiké Hernandez sacrificing ABs against righties in favor of Duran considered "a bad thing". So what if Kiké Hernandez doesn't play as much. He's not that good. He's the one who would take the hit unless they decide they'd rather play Hernandez at 2b against righties rather than Arroyo although I don't know why one would want do do that. And Renfroe doesn't necessarily have to surrender ABs if he keeps hitting. I don't think these "losses" are enough to justify not giving Duran a chance to succeed.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 24, 2021 11:54:36 GMT -5
Well, not to be Captain Obvious again, but if AAA performance speaks for itself, what it's saying is that Franchy Cordero is even better than Duran. I'm not against a promotion at this point. But I think a very good outcome for Duran in Boston this season would be .750 OPS with average defense. And as Chris has pointed out, his ABs would come not just at the expense of Santana, but Kiké, Arroyo, and Renfroe as well. So it's a defensive downgrade and an offensive upgrade that is not as clear-cut as it might seem.
Why is Kiké Hernandez sacrificing ABs against righties in favor of Duran considered "a bad thing". So what if Kiké Hernandez doesn't play as much. He's not that good.He's the one who would take the hit unless they decide they'd rather play Hernandez at 2b against righties rather than Arroyo although I don't know why one would want do do that. And Renfroe doesn't necessarily have to surrender ABs if he keeps hitting. I don't think these "losses" are enough to justify not giving Duran a chance to succeed. It's not just the ABs as such, it's that Duran would be replacing Kiké's (or Renfroe's) outfield defense.
Kiké and Renfroe have combined for 1.5 fWAR/2.2 bWAR so far this season. They're basically average regulars. It's true that they're both worse against righties, so even if Duran himself only puts up average offensive numbers he'd be an improvement on the batting side. But you also have to factor in the defensive cost as well.
And if they mean to play him every day, even against lefties, he'd probably even be an offensive downgrade. I don't know if that's their plan though.
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